SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/4-7/6 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
|
Post by manfred on Jul 6, 2022 20:56:43 GMT -5
Which is factored in, since a good deal of his WAR is from defense. Story has been fine in a Bellhornian way. He has not lived up to his contract, however, (early days!) and needs to be much better if they let X go and shift him to SS. I don’t think the argument is precisely Story or Schwarber… but it is that there was a guy who signed for a lot less doing as well (better at the plate). If this team’s offense is not great, and if you take X out and lean even more on Story, it doesn’t look good. If a 3.8 WAR pace is Bellhornian, I'm fine with that. Also translates to about $32m, which is not what he's making, so there's a good amount of surplus value so far. He is an excellent defender, true. Looking back at Bellhorn 2004, I realize my offensive comp is unfair to Bellhorn, whose OBP was about 75 points higher and who hit for a spot more power.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 6, 2022 20:57:17 GMT -5
Here's Kyle from Waltham's OPS+ from every season up to free agency:
2017: 99 2018: 117 2019: 122 2020: 88 2021: 149
Bit of a rollercoaster and hardly an obvious sign, especially with extremely negative defensive value.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 6, 2022 20:58:45 GMT -5
Here's Kyle from Waltham's OPS+ from every season up to free agency: 2017: 99 2018: 117 2019: 122 2020: 88 2021: 149 Bit of a rollercoaster and hardly an obvious sign, especially with extremely negative defensive value. I now throw out 2020 from all comps and calculations. Total junk season with too many external variables.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 6, 2022 20:59:26 GMT -5
I do think it's a fair question to ask whether they should have, on top of Story, also "invested" in Schwarber as the future DH for 2023. Sure they'd be over the threshold, but with JDM coming off the books net-net it wouldn't be a big hit long-term.
It felt to me that was never something they entertained, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with the DH position going forward though, I feel like they are going to want to use it as a "rest" day for their big bats so that they can gain some flexibility and rest them in the field while keeping their bat in the lineup.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 6, 2022 20:59:48 GMT -5
Hey look - a run.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Jul 6, 2022 21:01:45 GMT -5
One for the moral victories column.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 6, 2022 21:02:20 GMT -5
I do think it's a fair question to ask whether they should have, on top of Story, also "invested" in Schwarber as the future DH for 2023. Sure they'd be over the threshold, but with JDM coming off the books net-net it wouldn't be a big hit long-term. It felt to me that was never something they entertained, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with the DH position going forward though, I feel like they are going to want to use it as a "rest" day for their big bats so that they can gain some flexibility and rest them in the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. They’re saving the $$$ for Trea Turner, who will play 2nd next year and Story will go back to SS.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 6, 2022 21:02:55 GMT -5
I really think the fizzling of Jeter Downs as a prospect, at least in the short term, had ripple effects. If he had been ready to step in at 2B this year, then no need to spend on Story. Some of his AAV could have gone to Schwarber with the idea that they'd shoehorn him into the lineup wherever they could this year and then DH him starting next season. Who’s picking Schwarber over Story? I wanted them both. I'm with you. But that would have pushed the payroll well over $250M and I have to think the RS didn't want that, even though all the money coming off the books after this season would have made it possible to get under next year's threshold and still field a good team.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 6, 2022 21:05:04 GMT -5
If a 3.8 WAR pace is Bellhornian, I'm fine with that. Also translates to about $32m, which is not what he's making, so there's a good amount of surplus value so far. He is an excellent defender, true. Looking back at Bellhorn 2004, I realize my offensive comp is unfair to Bellhorn, whose OBP was about 75 points higher and who hit for a spot more power. Seriously, Bellhorn had two seasons (out of 10 in the show) that he played more than 115 games. Those were 2002 and 2004 and he struck it rich with 3.9 and 3.4 WAR in those seasons, respectively. Those were his only two seasons above 0.6 WAR. He had 7.1 career fWAR.
Story in his career has had fWAR of 3.6, 1.9, 4.6, 6.3, 2.1*, 2.8 before hitting FA. That asterisk is for the 2020 season, when he had 2.1 WAR in 59 games. He now has 1.9 in 81 games this season.
Please reach into your stationery drawer and pull out an apology card to send to Trevor Story. He seems like a really nice guy and will probably appreciate that you took the time...
|
|
|
Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 6, 2022 21:06:01 GMT -5
I do think it's a fair question to ask whether they should have, on top of Story, also "invested" in Schwarber as the future DH for 2023. Sure they'd be over the threshold, but with JDM coming off the books net-net it wouldn't be a big hit long-term. It felt to me that was never something they entertained, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with the DH position going forward though, I feel like they are going to want to use it as a "rest" day for their big bats so that they can gain some flexibility and rest them in the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. I think the idea that Devers could eventually possibly be filling the DH role on a routine basis might have factored into their thinking as well.
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 6, 2022 21:06:04 GMT -5
Are they really going to DFA Davis when Taylor is available to return? idk I dont see it. No. It’s weird he hasn’t been used much but there’s gotta be like 5-6 guys ahead of him on the DFA list
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 6, 2022 21:13:22 GMT -5
Which is factored in, since a good deal of his WAR is from defense. Story has been fine in a Bellhornian way. He has not lived up to his contract, however, (early days!) and needs to be much better if they let X go and shift him to SS. I don’t think the argument is precisely Story or Schwarber… but it is that there was a guy who signed for a lot less doing as well (better at the plate). If this team’s offense is not great, and if you take X out and lean even more on Story, it doesn’t look good. If a 3.8 WAR pace is Bellhornian, I'm fine with that. Also translates to about $32m, which is not what he's making, so there's a good amount of surplus value so far. This is where the advanced metrics don’t match the eyeball test. Because you can talk about the “surplus value” there, but I just don’t see it. Story’s defense has been great(better than I expected), but his bat has been a huge letdown. He’s a strikeout machine who had a couple scorching weeks with the bat. That might trick the advanced stats, but it doesn’t trick those who are watching the games.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 6, 2022 21:13:46 GMT -5
To be clear, I'm not claiming that CB and his people sat around last winter talking about how if only Downs hadn't fizzled they could have fulfilled their dream of keeping Kyle from Waltham. How would I know? My point is that when a prospect doesn't work out, it forces the org to expend resources (in Story's case, money) that otherwise would have been available for something else.
A pre-arb starting position player - even one worth a modest 2 or 2.5 WAR - carries great value.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Jul 6, 2022 21:14:55 GMT -5
I do think it's a fair question to ask whether they should have, on top of Story, also "invested" in Schwarber as the future DH for 2023. Sure they'd be over the threshold, but with JDM coming off the books net-net it wouldn't be a big hit long-term. It felt to me that was never something they entertained, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with the DH position going forward though, I feel like they are going to want to use it as a "rest" day for their big bats so that they can gain some flexibility and rest them in the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. They’re saving the $$$ for Trea Turner, who will play 2nd next year and Story will go back to SS. The early rumor is Correa to LA and Turner to Philly.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Jul 6, 2022 21:16:28 GMT -5
Dont ya just hate it when your team leaves a floater in the bowl two nights in a row.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 21:17:22 GMT -5
I do think it's a fair question to ask whether they should have, on top of Story, also "invested" in Schwarber as the future DH for 2023. Sure they'd be over the threshold, but with JDM coming off the books net-net it wouldn't be a big hit long-term. It felt to me that was never something they entertained, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with the DH position going forward though, I feel like they are going to want to use it as a "rest" day for their big bats so that they can gain some flexibility and rest them in the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. I think the idea that Devers could eventually possibly be filling the DH role on a routine basis might have factored into their thinking as well. When would he do that exactly, though? They're not going to give Devers 300 plus million to extend him just to turn around and DH him. I hope they don't use the DH role that way, as a rest stop for other regulars. They've exploited a big offensive DH advantage throughout the past 20 years with Ortiz and JDM. I'd hate to see that needlessly end.
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 6, 2022 21:18:57 GMT -5
Sox finished with higher expected batting average so we got that going for us
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 21:25:41 GMT -5
Geez, they can't even win 1 AL East series.
Maybe it'll help them get the WC3 spot rather than WC1 or WC2.
At least with WC3, their path to the ALCS would be Minnesota and then Houston before having to face an AL East team in the ALCS, whether it would be NYY, Toronto, or TB.
Because if they can't win any series against the AL East, being WC1 or WC2 means a Wild Card series against TB or Toronto followed by the Yankees if they actually somehow won a series against an AL East opponent. Dont like their chances at all in this scenario, having to win 2 series against the AL East (hard to see them even winning 1, even if the WC round was at Fenway)
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 6, 2022 21:26:13 GMT -5
Story also actually has a position too Which is factored in, since a good deal of his WAR is from defense. Story has been fine in a Bellhornian way. He has not lived up to his contract, however, (early days!) and needs to be much better if they let X go and shift him to SS. I don’t think the argument is precisely Story or Schwarber… but it is that there was a guy who signed for a lot less doing as well (better at the plate). If this team’s offense is not great, and if you take X out and lean even more on Story, it doesn’t look good. Are the Sox not one of the top Offences in MLB?? Maybe it’s Casas that replaces X. Maybe Soto. Maybe Judge. It simply comes down to the Sox signed a value FA near the end in Storey that filled a hole and has the added Benifit of being some insurance for The SS position.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 6, 2022 21:30:19 GMT -5
If a 3.8 WAR pace is Bellhornian, I'm fine with that. Also translates to about $32m, which is not what he's making, so there's a good amount of surplus value so far. This is where the advanced metrics don’t match the eyeball test. Because you can talk about the “surplus value” there, but I just don’t see it. Story’s defense has been great(better than I expected), but his bat has been a huge letdown. He’s a strikeout machine who had a couple scorching weeks with the bat. That might trick the advanced stats, but it doesn’t trick those who are watching the games. I think you might still be underestimating the defense. His fWAR is propped up by being the 24th best defensive player in baseball. Offensively he's the 179th best, which is what your eyes are seeing. When people so far are saying he's worth his contract, we're paying a lot for his defense right now.
|
|
|
Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 6, 2022 21:39:01 GMT -5
What is frustrating is that both the Jays and Rays are as flawed as the Red Sox are. Next we are playing a team that hasn't exhibited many flaws - and facing possibly our 4th series loss in a row. You can blame the fact that we were forced to use replacement starting pitchers now for a few weeks. Or you can blame the BP for turning 4 run deficits into 7 run deficits. But we just aren't driving the runners in that we need to. Chances galore but too often seldom score. Didn't really matter what the kid did, or if we had a decent Sale on the hill tonight. We barely scratched out a run. Just hope we can begin converting on our chances more starting tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 6, 2022 21:52:18 GMT -5
Which is factored in, since a good deal of his WAR is from defense. Story has been fine in a Bellhornian way. He has not lived up to his contract, however, (early days!) and needs to be much better if they let X go and shift him to SS. I don’t think the argument is precisely Story or Schwarber… but it is that there was a guy who signed for a lot less doing as well (better at the plate). If this team’s offense is not great, and if you take X out and lean even more on Story, it doesn’t look good. Are the Sox not one of the top Offences in MLB?? Maybe it’s Casas that replaces X. Maybe Soto. Maybe Judge. It simply comes down to the Sox signed a value FA near the end in Storey that filled a hole and has the added Benifit of being some insurance for The SS position. I think it is clearly not Soto. I pray not Judge. If it is Casas, man, that kid’ll be under pressure.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 6, 2022 22:30:02 GMT -5
Are they really going to DFA Davis when Taylor is available to return? idk I dont see it. No. It’s weird he hasn’t been used much but there’s gotta be like 5-6 guys ahead of him on the DFA list Valdez has pitched well this year (.600 OPSA MLB/milb), but he's 30 1/2 and in his last option year. Online, it looked like Sawamura was getting squeezed by ump.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
|
Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 22:35:55 GMT -5
Are they really going to DFA Davis when Taylor is available to return? idk I dont see it. Not they are gonna DFA Taylor, he’s sitting 90-92
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
|
Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 22:37:58 GMT -5
If a 3.8 WAR pace is Bellhornian, I'm fine with that. Also translates to about $32m, which is not what he's making, so there's a good amount of surplus value so far. This is where the advanced metrics don’t match the eyeball test. Because you can talk about the “surplus value” there, but I just don’t see it. Story’s defense has been great(better than I expected), but his bat has been a huge letdown. He’s a strikeout machine who had a couple scorching weeks with the bat. That might trick the advanced stats, but it doesn’t trick those who are watching the games. Clearly watching the games does you no good too. He’s an elite defender with pop and he’s one of the few guys who actually hits with guys on and consistently knocks in runners
|
|
|