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7/4-7/6 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 4, 2022 20:53:32 GMT -5
There are only 4 drafted players on our current roster since 2012 draft and Kutter Crawford is one of them. Proud of the kid today! CV, JD, JB, BD, KC, TH? Ok, didn’t realize the 2011’s We drafted Christian in 2008 and JB in 2011. Yes i guess that’s all of them i just went back to 2012 in my search wondering how much i should pay attention to the draft and all the guys I thought we’re going to be something and broke my heart lol.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 4, 2022 20:56:08 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 4, 2022 21:01:08 GMT -5
I wouldn't say it's been mismanaged though, sure a couple games had me scratching my head, but your point on the 9th inning ERAs feels like poor execution rather than mismanagement. If anything the announcement that Whitlock is going back into the pen upon return (and moving Houck into the closer role) is an example of them trying to take action. And yes, Robles should be DFA'd and likely will be once our injured pitchers come back. True, poor performance is a lot more to blame. However, when Robles and Danish number 2 and 3 in appearances in the ninth inning, I think there's a lot of head scratching there. I agree to the extent that I'm surprised Schreiber wasn't given a shot as closer and Houck was given the 1 inning closer role instead of keeping him in the multi inning role. I see Schreiber in the 7th often and wonder why it's not the 9th, so yeah we see Robles and Danish in the 8th inning or later. I do think eventually they get a closer, and rotate Whitlock and Houck for the 7th and 8th innings, along with Schreiber being a 7th or 8th inning option as well in tandem with Strahm. That should stabilize the late innings and keep Robles, Danish, and Brasier away from those innings. I do agree with your overall point about the 9th. While blown saves stats are flawed because a lot of them are blown holds, the Sox have been wretched in the 9th. I figured their ERA that inning was high and I think the 9th inning save percentage is probably poor. The ERA above 6 probably isnt too much higher than I thought it was. I think the relief prior to the 9th has been good and would explain why the overall bullpen ERA has been good despite the many 9th inning misadventures, but like you said, a bunch of wins were left on the table and were turned into losses. I do think that can improve.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 22:31:24 GMT -5
When was the last time we had a BA top 50 starting pitching prospect make his debut? Anyone since Owens back in 2015?
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Post by manfred on Jul 4, 2022 22:55:48 GMT -5
Is this likely to be a short piggy-back-style start or will they send him out looking to get ~5 innings (optimally, obviously)?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 22:55:50 GMT -5
True, poor performance is a lot more to blame. However, when Robles and Danish number 2 and 3 in appearances in the ninth inning, I think there's a lot of head scratching there. I agree to the extent that I'm surprised Schreiber wasn't given a shot as closer and Houck was given the 1 inning closer role instead of keeping him in the multi inning role. I see Schreiber in the 7th often and wonder why it's not the 9th, so yeah we see Robles and Danish in the 8th inning or later. I do think eventually they get a closer, and rotate Whitlock and Houck for the 7th and 8th innings, along with Schreiber being a 7th or 8th inning option as well in tandem with Strahm. That should stabilize the late innings and keep Robles, Danish, and Brasier away from those innings. I do agree with your overall point about the 9th. While blown saves stats are flawed because a lot of them are blown holds, the Sox have been wretched in the 9th. I figured their ERA that inning was high and I think the 9th inning save percentage is probably poor. The ERA above 6 probably isnt too much higher than I thought it was. I think the relief prior to the 9th has been good and would explain why the overall bullpen ERA has been good despite the many 9th inning misadventures, but like you said, a bunch of wins were left on the table and were turned into losses. I do think that can improve. In the 9th Sox relievers are 28th in wOBA and 30th (a/k/a/"last) in xwOBA. They are 22nd and 23rd in extras.
In the 7th and 8th innings they are 9th and 14th.
They are 2nd and 18th (!) in innings 1-6.
And I typed this, the Jays lost to the A's 5-1. With the Guardians losing twice to the Tigers, we are now 1.5 up on the Jays, 2 up on the Rays, and 4 up on the Guardians.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 23:10:14 GMT -5
Is this likely to be a short piggy-back-style start or will they send him out looking to get ~5 innings (optimally, obviously)? I see no reason as to why he'd pitch other than he as been pitching.
On regular rest for the Woo, he's gone 5, 5, 5.2, 5.1, and has thrown 86, 93, 101, and 84 pitches.
This will be his 3rd straight start on regular rest. Last (and only) time he did that was June 14, 2019.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 5, 2022 1:08:54 GMT -5
Is this likely to be a short piggy-back-style start or will they send him out looking to get ~5 innings (optimally, obviously)? I see no reason as to why he'd pitch other than he as been pitching.
On regular rest for the Woo, he's gone 5, 5, 5.2, 5.1, and has thrown 86, 93, 101, and 84 pitches.
This will be his 3rd straight start on regular rest. Last (and only) time he did that was June 14, 2019.
I’d imagine he’s on a pitch limit depending on where he’s at in the game. I’m sure he will get a bit more contact then AAA so i’m predicting 6 innings less than 100 pitches first career W and hopefully never sent down to face AAA batters ever again.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 5, 2022 8:28:09 GMT -5
Was watching the Hernandez home run from last night in Worcester, Locastro was playing LF. He has to have some major regrets about opting out of his deal with Boston, he'd have seen some decent playing time this year
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2022 9:10:09 GMT -5
Is this likely to be a short piggy-back-style start or will they send him out looking to get ~5 innings (optimally, obviously)? I see no reason as to why he'd pitch other than he as been pitching.
On regular rest for the Woo, he's gone 5, 5, 5.2, 5.1, and has thrown 86, 93, 101, and 84 pitches.
This will be his 3rd straight start on regular rest. Last (and only) time he did that was June 14, 2019.
And not that Eric is saying otherwise, but the reason for that is that with a regular weekly off day, the only time you start on regular rest in the minors now is if your rotation spot falls on Tuesday-Sunday. It's not a unique Bello thing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2022 9:12:21 GMT -5
Was watching the Hernandez home run from last night in Worcester, Locastro was playing LF. He has to have some major regrets about opting out of his deal with Boston, he'd have seen some decent playing time this year He didn't opt out. They non-tendered him. Also, strong disagree that he'd have been up in Boston unless the counterfactual includes them not signing Refsnyder.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2022 9:14:09 GMT -5
When was the last time we had a BA top 50 starting pitching prospect make his debut? Anyone since Owens back in 2015? It's around the same time but Eduardo Rodriguez was just outside the top 50 entering the year, such that maybe he was inside by the time he debuted?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 5, 2022 10:57:06 GMT -5
Christian Vazquez seems like the kind of guy who would give a middle innings solo home run ball from the Fourth of July prime real estate on his mantle for the rest of his life Straight to the pool room...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 5, 2022 11:15:02 GMT -5
i hope that guy can sustain a 3-4 yr run of qualilty relief. They've committed to using him as a starter thus far, after the relief experiment at the beginning of the season fizzled. Some guys just perform better on the starter's routine.
If he keeps pitching like he did today, I don't see why you would send him to the bullpen anyway. I don't expect him to suddenly become a #3 guy but even if he profiles as a second division starter over the long haul, you can trade him to a second division team if you don't deem him worthy of our rotation.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2022 11:40:53 GMT -5
Was watching the Hernandez home run from last night in Worcester, Locastro was playing LF. He has to have some major regrets about opting out of his deal with Boston, he'd have seen some decent playing time this year Doubtful. I don't think he would have had much more than a call up and a back down kind of thing going with the Red Sox, and with Duran around they wouldn't need to use him for his speed. For all we know he might be thinking, "I have a decent shot at being a pinch-runner/5th OF on a slow Yankees 100 win plus post-season team that has a real decent shot at winning the Series this year and getting a ring."
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 5, 2022 11:46:36 GMT -5
Since the last starts by Whitlock and Eovaldi, on June 7th and 8th, Red Sox pitchers have given up 3.7 runs/game. That includes 9 starts by rookies and/or Austin Davis in 23 games. The young pitching depth is saving their bacon.
ADD: 3.1 runs/game given up in those 9, in which the team has gone 6-3.
It's definitely been promising and you can only play who your schedule says you play but the upcoming games vs. the MFYs and TOR are going to tell an important tale.
Winckowski's starts have been against BAL, OAK, DET, CLE, and CHC. Seabold just pitched against CHC. Crawford vs. TB and before that SEA and STL. Other than STL, the odds of randomly facing a worse collection of offenses are pretty long -- and STL pounded Crawford.
Bello is next up tomorrow apparently and I will be interested to see how TB's lefties fare against him. His L/R splits are notable.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 5, 2022 11:49:53 GMT -5
How strange is it that, in a year where we have insane organizational SP depth ... that we have to use all of it? Pitchers currently hurt have started 61% of our games. And that's factoring in ... that they've been hurt!
Sale, Eovaldi, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Whitlock. A formidable rotation! And they're all unavailable at present.
Leaving us with Pivetta and Winckoswki, Crawford, Seabold, and, next up, Bello.
Combined line for the last three outings: 15.1 14 3 2 4 18. That's a 1.17 ERA.
Revised rotation projection (italics are subject to change based on how guys fare in the interim):
Yankees Winckowsi Wacha or Seabold. They can recall Seabold if Wacha has to go on the IL, which I think is likelier than not. Crawford Pivetta
@ Rays Sale
Winkowski or Bello 5 Bello 6 or Winckowski 5 Wacha 5 or Crawford
@ Yankees Pivetta Sale Winckowski, Bello Crawford, Eovaldi
They might also give Pivetta and Sale an extra day in the final series, if Wacha or Eovaldi is able to pitch by then.
Wow. We're really going to find out what we've got in these kids this weekend.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 5, 2022 12:03:00 GMT -5
I don't get why people are acting like the closer problem hasn't been solved. It's Houck now, and he should be fine.
Personally I'm disappointed that his innings will be so limited, but for the closer lovers among you... why aren't you thrilled? Isn't this exactly what you wanted? He's even got a sleeve tat, a severe mien, and eccentric personal beliefs - the classic closer package.
I'm not excited about Houck being the closer. Until he can narrow the gap in his L/R splits, I'd much rather have him as a guy you can choose your spots with in a situation where pinch-hitting with a LHH is not as likely as it is in a save situation.
wOBA vs. R = .247
wOBA vs. L = .335
WHIP vs. R = 0.98
WHIP vs. L = 1.61
K-BB% vs. R = 21.0%
K-BB% vs. L = 10.6%
FIP vs. R = 2.10 FIP vs. L = 4.24
Anyone who has watched the games he's pitched in doesn't even need these numbers to recall how hard LHH have hit him (and not all-star LHH either) and how helpless RHH look against him. It's clear that LHH get a pretty good look at the ball out of his hand.
If Whitlock is going to be a multi-inning guy every 2-3 days, then I want to see those innings include the 9th when they lead the game. When Whit is not available, I'd rather have Schreiber in the 9th than Houck.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 5, 2022 12:49:11 GMT -5
I don't get why people are acting like the closer problem hasn't been solved. It's Houck now, and he should be fine.
Personally I'm disappointed that his innings will be so limited, but for the closer lovers among you... why aren't you thrilled? Isn't this exactly what you wanted? He's even got a sleeve tat, a severe mien, and eccentric personal beliefs - the classic closer package.
I'm not excited about Houck being the closer. Until he can narrow the gap in his L/R splits, I'd much rather have him as a guy you can choose your spots with in a situation where pinch-hitting with a LHH is not as likely as it is in a save situation.
wOBA vs. R = .247
wOBA vs. L = .335
WHIP vs. R = 0.98
WHIP vs. L = 1.61
K-BB% vs. R = 21.0%
K-BB% vs. L = 10.6%
FIP vs. R = 2.10 FIP vs. L = 4.24
Anyone who has watched the games he's pitched in doesn't even need these numbers to recall how hard LHH have hit him (and not all-star LHH either) and how helpless RHH look against him. It's clear that LHH get a pretty good look at the ball out of his hand.
If Whitlock is going to be a multi-inning guy every 2-3 days, then I want to see those innings include the 9th when they lead the game. When Whit is not available, I'd rather have Schreiber in the 9th than Houck.
Good points. Though they also speak to why I don't like the rigidity of the closer role in general: it's indifferent to context, so that you bring in the same guy whether it's high leverage (1-run lead) or low leverage (2- or 3-run lead); whether you're facing the heart or the bottom of the order; whether you're facing righties or lefties; and conversely, you can't bring that same pitcher in in any other high leverage situation when they might be most useful. Why not play the matchups in the 9th inning the same way you would in the 6th or 7th? (Yes, yes, I know... most relievers are mentally weak and wilt under the pressure when a win is at stake. Whatever.)
But you make a pretty good case for why that rigidity might be a bigger hindrance for Houck than for others.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 5, 2022 13:32:22 GMT -5
How strange is it that, in a year where we have insane organizational SP depth ... that we have to use all of it? Pitchers currently hurt have started 61% of our games. And that's factoring in ... that they've been hurt!
Sale, Eovaldi, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Whitlock. A formidable rotation! And they're all unavailable at present.
Leaving us with Pivetta and Winckoswki, Crawford, Seabold, and, next up, Bello. Combined line for the last three outings: 15.1 14 3 2 4 18. That's a 1.17 ERA. Revised rotation projection (italics are subject to change based on how guys fare in the interim):
Yankees Winckowsi Wacha or Seabold. They can recall Seabold if Wacha has to go on the IL, which I think is likelier than not. Crawford Pivetta
@ Rays Sale
Winkowski or Bello 5 Bello 6 or Winckowski 5 Wacha 5 or Crawford
@ Yankees Pivetta Sale Winckowski, Bello Crawford, Eovaldi
They might also give Pivetta and Sale an extra day in the final series, if Wacha or Eovaldi is able to pitch by then.
Not so strange, perhaps, if one considers that Bloom came from Tampa, a team that seems to go through starters (and relievers) like toilet paper in any given season. I wonder if this is a feature or a bug of the Tampa philosophy, or just a coincidence.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 5, 2022 14:31:07 GMT -5
The Rays kind of tick me off with how they get lucky and hit big sometimes in the right season.
Brandon Lowe goes down.
They replace him with a .900 OPS player in Isaac Perades out of no where. Harold Ramirez has a .800 OPS out of no where. Playing way above their heads. They get lucky like this all the time. Some of it is scouting, but no one can't convince me that organization has a magic horshoe somewhere.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2022 14:54:53 GMT -5
Bullpen hasn’t really been that bad, hard to say it’s badly mismanaged when it’s top half in results. People remember blown games when the bullpen would allow like 2 runs total but the team would score 2 runs total so they’d lose 3-2 and then they’d blame the bullpen I think they’ll make the appropriate tweaks to make it better too Boys, we are 6th in team ERA...C'mon!!! To the negative, we have converted only 50% of save opportunities...18 of 36 according to fangraphs. Including games where the bullpen gave up 1 run in 6 innings. Saves are the worst stat in baseball. Also keep in mind that you can get multiple blown saves in one game, but that does not mean that they lost more than once.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2022 15:06:04 GMT -5
When was the last time we had a BA top 50 starting pitching prospect make his debut? Anyone since Owens back in 2015? It's around the same time but Eduardo Rodriguez was just outside the top 50 entering the year, such that maybe he was inside by the time he debuted? Regardless of the literal rankings, this is as excited about a prospect debut as I have been since Devers' callup. For pitchers, I'd have to go back to Buchholz. I'm as excited about Bello as I was about Espinoza.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 5, 2022 15:08:44 GMT -5
How strange is it that, in a year where we have insane organizational SP depth ... that we have to use all of it? Pitchers currently hurt have started 61% of our games. And that's factoring in ... that they've been hurt!
Sale, Eovaldi, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Whitlock. A formidable rotation! And they're all unavailable at present.
Leaving us with Pivetta and Winckoswki, Crawford, Seabold, and, next up, Bello. Combined line for the last three outings: 15.1 14 3 2 4 18. That's a 1.17 ERA. Revised rotation projection (italics are subject to change based on how guys fare in the interim):
Yankees Winckowsi Wacha or Seabold. They can recall Seabold if Wacha has to go on the IL, which I think is likelier than not. Crawford Pivetta
@ Rays Sale
Winkowski or Bello 5 Bello 6 or Winckowski 5 Wacha 5 or Crawford
@ Yankees Pivetta Sale Winckowski, Bello Crawford, Eovaldi
They might also give Pivetta and Sale an extra day in the final series, if Wacha or Eovaldi is able to pitch by then.
Not so strange, perhaps, if one considers that Bloom came from Tampa, a team that seems to go through starters (and relievers) like toilet paper in any given season. I wonder if this is a feature or a bug of the Tampa philosophy, or just a coincidence. Not sure I follow your thinking. Is the idea that Bloom might have imposed some sort of policy that caused Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Hill, and Wacha to all get injured? (And yet had no effect last season, when the rotation was uncommonly healthy?)
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 5, 2022 15:26:46 GMT -5
It's around the same time but Eduardo Rodriguez was just outside the top 50 entering the year, such that maybe he was inside by the time he debuted? Regardless of the literal rankings, this is as excited about a prospect debut as I have been since Devers' callup. For pitchers, I'd have to go back to Buchholz. I'm as excited about Bello as I was about Espinoza. Bello definitely belongs in the group of Xander, Mookie, Pedrioa, Lester, Papelbon, and Devers for sure. There's going to be a different kind of buzz if Bello stays long enough to make a start in Fenway.
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