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7/7-7/10 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 12:20:32 GMT -5
I reject those projections, lol. Unlike me, they are updating HARD on that 10-game stretch and I don't really know why. Even including this season he has a career OPS of .640. Suddenly at age 31 he's a .730 guy? That doesn't pass the smell test. Since the COVID year, he's crushed AAA and his major league stats are fine despite a big xwOBA underperformance. There's no reason to look at his major league stats from 6 years ago.
If there's some sort of deep dive analysis that can show he's a different hitter somehow, I'm open to hearing it. But suddenly becoming a much better hitter at age 30 - let alone going from a AAAA type with a career 71 wRC+ to an above average hitter? That just doesn't happen.
As for the xwOBA underperformance... he's done that every year since he was a rookie. (I feel like "you can't just look at xwOBA in isolation" is a point I've been making a lot lately...)
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 12:21:19 GMT -5
Ok, let’s keep it real. I’d have signed Freeman, not signed Story. Of course, the moment they signed Story, it became apparent that you could wipe X off the books after this year, so even with Story, you are talking about one season of one extra big salary. There is a tradeoff. Oh, and I would not have signed Paxton. I found the money. I hate signing oft-injured pitchers to contracts with the understanding that they might miss their first season almost entirely and *might* help next year. Okay. In that case I'd say:
-Freeman is signed for ages 32-37, Story for ages 29-34. Advantage Story as far as that goes. -Freeman blocks the team's best prospect in the upper minors; Story fills a position that is weak in the upper minors. -It is by no means obvious to me that going into 2022 with Arroyo as the starting 2B would be a less dicey proposition than Dalbec at 1B. If the idea is that there is "no excuse" to go into the season with big positional weaknesses, how would it be acceptable to go into the season with a guy with a career .296 wOBA and an alarming injury history as the starting second baseman?
Anyway, we can go in circles (eg: JDM is gone, so Freeman could DH if Casas forces him off 1b). The point is… it is painful to have a team be so top heavy, a team that feels so close to being great — and see it dragged down by anchors like Dalbec and others. I mean, when people are getting excited about Refsnyder, things are not so hot. Still… as long as Devers breathes, there is hope.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2022 12:30:57 GMT -5
Since the COVID year, he's crushed AAA and his major league stats are fine despite a big xwOBA underperformance. There's no reason to look at his major league stats from 6 years ago.
If there's some sort of deep dive analysis that can show he's a different hitter somehow, I'm open to hearing it. But suddenly becoming a much better hitter at age 30 - let alone going from a AAAA type with a career 71 wRC+ to an above average hitter? That just doesn't happen.
As for the xwOBA underperformance... he's done that every year since he was a rookie. (I feel like "you can't just look at xwOBA in isolation" is a point I've been making a lot lately...)
You're giving an awful lot of weight to 400 PA's between 4 and 7 years ago.
I am a simple man. I just look at the last three years, caring most about the more recent ones.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 12:37:28 GMT -5
If there's some sort of deep dive analysis that can show he's a different hitter somehow, I'm open to hearing it. But suddenly becoming a much better hitter at age 30 - let alone going from a AAAA type with a career 71 wRC+ to an above average hitter? That just doesn't happen.
As for the xwOBA underperformance... he's done that every year since he was a rookie. (I feel like "you can't just look at xwOBA in isolation" is a point I've been making a lot lately...)
You're giving an awful lot of weight to 400 PA's between 4 and 7 years ago.
I am a simple man. I just look at the last three years, caring most about the more recent ones.
Shades of Danny Santana in this conversation. At least he was only 28 when he supposedly became good all of a sudden.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 14:18:14 GMT -5
Does anyone know if they are still using a different ball in AAA than MLB?
Aside from the competition and obvious differences between the levels? That has to grossly affect spin rates, stuff, etc., which, in turn, has to really make evaluations of whether a guy is "MLB good" as opposed to "AAA good" even more difficult.
I say this because when I see Seabold, Crawford, Mata and Winckowski, I see future relievers rather than starters unless we're talking about 5th/6th starters.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 8, 2022 14:18:48 GMT -5
What if Julio Lugo was secretly Bobby Dalbec sabotaging the Red Sox yet again?
You might point out that Julio Lugo passed away last year, but that would be a pretty good cover.....
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 8, 2022 14:26:13 GMT -5
I kind of take a silly enjoyment out of reading game threads after MFY losses, which coupled with very avergate recent play, brings out the full fan neuroses. Yeah it's more funny that anything, seeing people's crazy ideas come to life. Waking up not getting caffeine. Seeing what comes people come up with roster construction wise lol.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 8, 2022 14:35:54 GMT -5
.210 versus .200? Hopefully Hernandez, Verdugo, and Duran do better than both. Yeah, pretty much!
You know how Dalbec has looked awful mired in a season-long slump? He has a 71 wRC+. For his career coming into this season Refsnyder had... a 71 wRC+. And I'm not updating my view of him much because of a hot 10 game stretch.
JBJ, meanwhile, has been unlucky - his wOBA's 40 points lower than his xwOBA. Interestingly, he has the best K% of his career, so it's not like he's putting up ghost-of-Travis-Shaw at bats. He has at least a little positive regression coming.
Fellas, find yourselves a lady who will stand behind you the way Incandenza stands behind JBJ. Good lord. He was the worst player in the entire league last year. With enough AB’s, he might be able to repeat the feat in 2022. His OBP since 2017 is .303. His OPS+ over the same timeframe is 80. He’s not unlucky(unless you consider 6 years a small sample size), he just sucks.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 8, 2022 14:55:26 GMT -5
Does anyone know if they are still using a different ball in AAA than MLB? Aside from the competition and obvious differences between the levels? That has to grossly affect spin rates, stuff, etc., which, in turn, has to really make evaluations of whether a guy is "MLB good" as opposed to "AAA good" even more difficult. I say this because when I see Seabold, Crawford, Mata and Winckowski, I see future relievers rather than starters unless we're talking about 5th/6th starters. My understanding is that the ball is the same except in MLB it's kept in a humidor and in AAA it's not. One of the recent Sox call ups (Winck?) mentioned that the big league ball felt "mushy" to him during his first start. I guess he got used to it.
Re: the future roles of the guys you mention, if just one of them becomes a regular multi-year member of the rotation that's a slamdunk win for the org.
Given that none have ever done anything but start, if they're deemed not good enough to start for BOS, some of them might make good trade fodder, à la Jalen Beeks, rather than simply being converted to RP.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 8, 2022 15:10:31 GMT -5
That Franchy trade isn't working out. Gerritt Cole (Mr. Cole “the $324,000,00 man” gave up 5 runs), so does that mean he is not working out?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 15:16:14 GMT -5
Does anyone know if they are still using a different ball in AAA than MLB? Aside from the competition and obvious differences between the levels? That has to grossly affect spin rates, stuff, etc., which, in turn, has to really make evaluations of whether a guy is "MLB good" as opposed to "AAA good" even more difficult. I say this because when I see Seabold, Crawford, Mata and Winckowski, I see future relievers rather than starters unless we're talking about 5th/6th starters. My understanding is that the ball is the same except in MLB it's kept in a humidor and in AAA it's not. One of the recent Sox call ups (Winck?) mentioned that the big league ball felt "mushy" to him during his first start. I guess he got used to it. Re: the future roles of the guys you mention, if just one of them becomes a regular multi-year member of the rotation that's a slamdunk win for the org.
Given that none have ever done anything but start, if they're deemed not good enough to start for BOS, some of them might make good trade fodder, à la Jalen Beeks, rather than simply being converted to RP.
Thanks for this. I guess the world needs fifth starters. I just don't see anyone in the system from High A to AAA who looks like a legit #2 or better, Bello included. If this proves out, they'll likely have to give away talent for that or buy it. Even if the strategy is playing for the Wild Card from here out, they will need at least two top starters to advance in anything beyond a "baseball gods luck" series. Sale, when he's right, is that (more of a #2 at this point than #1, of course), but no one else looks to be a legit "guy" inhouse unless Paxton proves to be the very best-case scenario. And even then, he'll only be around for (maybe) September and next year.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 15:17:15 GMT -5
That Franchy trade isn't working out. Gerritt Cole (Mr. Cole “the $324,000,00 man” gave up 5 runs), so does that mean he is not working out? That will be resolved when Bloom makes "a value decision" and NYY buys Devers. [ducks]
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 15:24:20 GMT -5
Yeah, pretty much!
You know how Dalbec has looked awful mired in a season-long slump? He has a 71 wRC+. For his career coming into this season Refsnyder had... a 71 wRC+. And I'm not updating my view of him much because of a hot 10 game stretch.
JBJ, meanwhile, has been unlucky - his wOBA's 40 points lower than his xwOBA. Interestingly, he has the best K% of his career, so it's not like he's putting up ghost-of-Travis-Shaw at bats. He has at least a little positive regression coming.
Fellas, find yourselves a lady who will stand behind you the way Incandenza stands behind JBJ. Good lord. He was the worst player in the entire league last year. With enough AB’s, he might be able to repeat the feat in 2022. His OBP since 2017 is .303. His OPS+ over the same timeframe is 80. He’s not unlucky(unless you consider 6 years a small sample size), he just sucks. You're responding to me literally endorsing the view that he could be a .210 hitter, and that he might see "a little positive regression" from his current .569 OPS. Some real pollyannaish stuff...
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 8, 2022 15:25:47 GMT -5
I think this might be the biggest reason why everyone is freaking out that the Sox can't beat up anyone in their division. If they keep up the trend of not being able to beat up a AL East opponent, then they will miss the playoffs.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2022 18:12:07 GMT -5
I kind of take a silly enjoyment out of reading game threads after MFY losses, which coupled with very avergate recent play, brings out the full fan neuroses. Yeah it's more funny that anything, seeing people's crazy ideas come to life. Waking up not getting caffeine. Seeing what comes people come up with roster construction wise lol. and the conversations also have a harder edge, which is understandable. It is good to let off some steam, everybody feels frustrated. As long as the decorum doesn't go haywire. LOL
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 18:15:03 GMT -5
This isn’t a complaint, nor even a second guess but more of a, I don’t know, Strat-o-Matic Question:
At least against righties, would you consider batting X 2nd ahead of Devers? Maybe even put Raffy 4 behind X and JDM? Since Xander is getting on a lot but not hitting with that much power, doesn’t he set the table for their best power guy? And… maybe he gets better pitches with Raffy behind him?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2022 18:17:18 GMT -5
Don’t feel great about Seabold’s chances tonight
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 8, 2022 18:22:22 GMT -5
Don’t feel great about Seabold’s chances tonight Nope. Most likely going to get hammered. Offense better show up against Cortes.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2022 18:22:29 GMT -5
Don’t feel great about Seabold’s chances tonight He’s wishing he was one of the lucky 15 on the IL
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 8, 2022 18:24:17 GMT -5
If it wasn't for Raffy's great play, their still would be no outs in this inning.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 18:24:26 GMT -5
Having Ryan Weber flashbacks.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2022 18:27:08 GMT -5
Yeahhhhhhh
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2022 18:27:28 GMT -5
Seabold aint gonna make it
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 8, 2022 18:27:28 GMT -5
Seabold shouldn't be a starter on this team. This is already a slaughter.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2022 18:28:06 GMT -5
You have to respect this team’s ability to concede games before they start. Inspiring.
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