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7/7-7/10 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2022 10:46:49 GMT -5
So really Winckowski had one terrible inning against the best team in baseballs top of the order and everybody is down on him again and he has no ceiling and no future as a SP lol With the stuff LDLR was showing in Salem I do LDLR/Franchy/Winckowski for Benintendi in a heartbeat. You can even forget the other two scratch tickets. If Winckowski sticks as a 5 the trade is a win. You have a Cost-controlled starting pitcher for years. Everything else is gravy. Not really. Tanner Houck has projected as a reliever prior to coming up. Did he not have some good starts, too? And now he's in the pen, again. I'm sure he'll start again at some point, but who knows if he's going to stick as a starter? And Houck is better than Winckowski, so I'm certainly not sold on Winckowski as a starter, at least not yet. I'm glad Winckowski pitched well in his first handful of starts, but it'll take more than that to convince me, that yes, he is a starter and will stick as a starter. So no, one bad inning, didn't do much to change my opinion of him. I think he's most likely a hybrid/swing guy, a guy who can spot start or pitch the middle innings. I might be wrong and he might be a #5 starter, but then again, by definition of being a #5 starter, a lot of those guys are below average starters and don't remain long in the role of starter and wind up in the pen.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 10:53:35 GMT -5
Eduardo Nunez had the 6th most PAs on the team in 2018. Their catchers combined to hit .202/.254/.293, the worst line in the majors by far. At 3B they combined for an 83 wRC+. They were essentially replacement level at 3 different positions. That team won 108 games.
Also, people are making some really definitive statements about how ready this roster is to make a playoff run, when we don't know what the roster will look like yet. Maybe Josh Bell will be the first baseman and Franchy will be an everyday outfielder by August.
And yet⦠this team will not. What does this comparison mean? Because one great team had some bad players, having bad players is ok? I am not assuming this is the roster. But the weaknesses at 1b and OF were obvious at the start of the season. I suppose part of my point is that if the theory is once in the playoffs it is anyoneâs game â and if the playoffs are really not that hard to make now â then it makes even less sense to put off making moves to improve you in the present. Isn't the point obvious? It's that almost every team has weaknesses, even very good teams. You said there is "no excuse" for leaving weaknesses on the roster, but the Red Sox are spending over the CBT limit this season, and while it looks like they made a bad bet on JBJ over Renfroe (or overpaid to get those two prospects) I think Bloom stretched the sheet as much as he could to build the roster. Totally fair if you want to criticize the JBJ thing, but going with Verdugo, Kiké, and Dalbec at those other weak positions? I don't think there was "no excuse" for those roster decisions; I think they were totally reasonable ways to build the team.
Your last line sounds like a non sequitur to me; I'm not sure what you mean by that.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 8, 2022 10:54:13 GMT -5
I agree with people who feel seasons typically are championship or bust in Boston, but I totally disagree with the notion that this team can’t win a championship. If you make the playoffs with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Paxton (or Wacha or Whitlock) in the rotation you have a chance. Obviously that requires a few things to break right in their recoveries, but every championship team needs health luck. Preach, @scotty!
I also think that this team is more built for the playoffs than for the regular season, especially as regards the pitching staff. You only really need four starters (and the fourth guy may never start) and this team is loaded with guys after the top three who can come into a game and settle things down for 2-3 innings. Guys like Robles, Danish, Valdez, Sawamura, Diekman will be distant memories in October.
Unfortunately, you have to win enough games to get there and the back end RPs have a lot to say about that.
As Millar might say, "Don't let us get to the post-season."
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 10:56:50 GMT -5
JBJ is a really good bench OF. I think that's where he goes when Kique comes back. Duran/Kiké/Verdugo/Refsnyder with Franchy/Arroyo available looks like the best OF configuration IMO Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2022 10:56:52 GMT -5
To be clear, Winckowski can still be a useful pitcher for the Sox even if he doesn't start. Cordero is a guy with a lot of talent whose performance is rather ordinary. Benintendi is hardly a franchise player. Wouldn't be a hard decision to let him leave as a free agent had he remained with the Sox.
Then again I thought letting JBJ go was an easy decision, and yet he's back. lol.
So, no I don't think the Sox were ripped off in the deal, but I don't think they made out that great either. I suspect the Royals will make out better than the Sox did.
But I certainly wouldn't call this Bagwell for Andersen or Lyle for Cater or anything like that. All GMs have deals that don't work out great. Bloom spent $5 on 5 scratch tickets, won $2 on one and another $2 on the other and had nothing on the other 3. He figured it was worth a shot. There are worse gambles than that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2022 10:58:28 GMT -5
Duran/Kiké/Verdugo/Refsnyder with Franchy/Arroyo available looks like the best OF configuration IMO Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season. .210 versus .200? Hopefully Hernandez, Verdugo, and Duran do better than both.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 11:05:07 GMT -5
And yet⦠this team will not. What does this comparison mean? Because one great team had some bad players, having bad players is ok? I am not assuming this is the roster. But the weaknesses at 1b and OF were obvious at the start of the season. I suppose part of my point is that if the theory is once in the playoffs it is anyoneâs game â and if the playoffs are really not that hard to make now â then it makes even less sense to put off making moves to improve you in the present. Isn't the point obvious? It's that almost every team has weaknesses, even very good teams. You said there is "no excuse" for leaving weaknesses on the roster, but the Red Sox are spending over the CBT limit this season, and while it looks like they made a bad bet on JBJ over Renfroe (or overpaid to get those two prospects) I think Bloom stretched the sheet as much as he could to build the roster. Totally fair if you want to criticize the JBJ thing, but going with Verdugo, Kiké, and Dalbec at those other weak positions? I don't think there was "no excuse" for those roster decisions; I think they were totally reasonable ways to build the team.
Your last line sounds like a non sequitur to me; I'm not sure what you mean by that.
My point is: in the old days, when making the playoffs was difficult, I get saying “let’s not over-invest this season” — maybe even trade established guys for youth that might improve you next year or down the line. But now, with the playoffs no longer a race so much with the Yankees as the Twins or the Guardians or whatever, there is less reason to make moves that weaken you now to strengthen you later. I mean, with multiple WC, the Sox are basically an AL Central team now as far as sliding in… they can be in the middle of AL East pack and make it. So then why not play to win when you get in? In the end, if this is the last season they have X, Eovaldi, and JDM (don’t even say Devers), it seems crazy to go into the season with Dalbec at first, for example. If they really lose those 3, it will be difficult to field a *better* team next year. Why not go for it now?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 11:09:51 GMT -5
Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season. .210 versus .200? Hopefully Hernandez, Verdugo, and Duran do better than both. Yeah, pretty much!
You know how Dalbec has looked awful mired in a season-long slump? He has a 71 wRC+. For his career coming into this season Refsnyder had... a 71 wRC+. And I'm not updating my view of him much because of a hot 10 game stretch.
JBJ, meanwhile, has been unlucky - his wOBA's 40 points lower than his xwOBA. Interestingly, he has the best K% of his career, so it's not like he's putting up ghost-of-Travis-Shaw at bats. He has at least a little positive regression coming.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 8, 2022 11:13:41 GMT -5
JBJ is a really good bench OF. I think that's where he goes when Kique comes back. Duran/Kiké/Verdugo/Refsnyder with Franchy/Arroyo available looks like the best OF configuration IMO I don't want to see Arroyo in the OF again.
It's a crowded situation, particularly with Ref being out of options. But I think throwing away the best glove of the group and getting nothing back is a bad option.
Some have suggested swapping 2 years of Verdugo for 2 months of Benintendi but that doesn't make sense to me, as it provides only and incremental upgrade in LF and does nothing to break up the current logjam.
Given that you might be looking at trading Verdugo in the offseason anyway, to make room for Duran in LF, maybe a third team who could use Verdugo could be included with the Nats (who wouldn't want two years of Verdugo, as they're planning to sell the team and don't figure to contend during that time) in a trade that nets Bell plus a prospect or two.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2022 11:15:04 GMT -5
What is frustrating though is that given this, just imagine if they had a 1b and an OF? Given that the new system makes squeaking into the playoffs pretty easy, and given that at that point it is a whole new season, then there is no excuse for not doing what you can to maximize yourself for that run. Eduardo Nunez had the 6th most PAs on the team in 2018. Their catchers combined to hit .202/.254/.293, the worst line in the majors by far. At 3B they combined for an 83 wRC+. They were essentially replacement level at 3 different positions. That team won 108 games.
Also, people are making some really definitive statements about how ready this roster is to make a playoff run, when we don't know what the roster will look like yet. Maybe Josh Bell will be the first baseman and Franchy will be an everyday outfielder by August.
sorry. can't buy this line of thinking. the bottom may be similar, but the top was / is way different. And that isn't even mentioning the starting itching. It isn't a solid argument to use the worst of the 2018 as a comparison to this years club. It is very fair to criticize the OF and 1B starters when the season started. Plenty of people were rightfully upset when it appeared as though JBJ was going to get a lot of at bats. That was kind of universally discussed.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 8, 2022 11:16:43 GMT -5
I kind of take a silly enjoyment out of reading game threads after MFY losses, which coupled with very avergate recent play, brings out the full fan neuroses.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 11:17:27 GMT -5
Isn't the point obvious? It's that almost every team has weaknesses, even very good teams. You said there is "no excuse" for leaving weaknesses on the roster, but the Red Sox are spending over the CBT limit this season, and while it looks like they made a bad bet on JBJ over Renfroe (or overpaid to get those two prospects) I think Bloom stretched the sheet as much as he could to build the roster. Totally fair if you want to criticize the JBJ thing, but going with Verdugo, Kiké, and Dalbec at those other weak positions? I don't think there was "no excuse" for those roster decisions; I think they were totally reasonable ways to build the team.
Your last line sounds like a non sequitur to me; I'm not sure what you mean by that.
My point is: in the old days, when making the playoffs was difficult, I get saying “let’s not over-invest this season” — maybe even trade established guys for youth that might improve you next year or down the line. But now, with the playoffs no longer a race so much with the Yankees as the Twins or the Guardians or whatever, there is less reason to make moves that weaken you now to strengthen you later. I mean, with multiple WC, the Sox are basically an AL Central team now as far as sliding in… they can be in the middle of AL East pack and make it. So then why not play to win when you get in? In the end, if this is the last season they have X, Eovaldi, and JDM (don’t even say Devers), it seems crazy to go into the season with Dalbec at first, for example. If they really lose those 3, it will be difficult to field a *better* team next year. Why not go for it now? Well, pretty much everyone else that I've seen comment on it looks at it in exactly the opposite way - if the bar for making the playoffs is lower, and the playoffs themselves more of a crapshoot, then it makes sense to build the consistently competitive roster that Bloom was hired to build, rather than go all in in any one season.
Dalbec, meanwhile, is on a league minimum salary and had a 135 wRC+ from July 1st on last season, and that was still within his first 540 major league PAs. How was it "crazy" to go into the season with him as the starting first baseman? Where would you have subtracted from the roster to improve them at 1B before the season started, assuming a roughly fixed payroll?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 8, 2022 11:17:34 GMT -5
Duran/Kiké/Verdugo/Refsnyder with Franchy/Arroyo available looks like the best OF configuration IMO Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season. You should start a bold predictions thread...
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 11:20:50 GMT -5
Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season. You should start a bold predictions thread... Haha. They all just amount to "guys, Refsnyder is actually not a very good baseball player."
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 11:27:36 GMT -5
My point is: in the old days, when making the playoffs was difficult, I get saying “let’s not over-invest this season” — maybe even trade established guys for youth that might improve you next year or down the line. But now, with the playoffs no longer a race so much with the Yankees as the Twins or the Guardians or whatever, there is less reason to make moves that weaken you now to strengthen you later. I mean, with multiple WC, the Sox are basically an AL Central team now as far as sliding in… they can be in the middle of AL East pack and make it. So then why not play to win when you get in? In the end, if this is the last season they have X, Eovaldi, and JDM (don’t even say Devers), it seems crazy to go into the season with Dalbec at first, for example. If they really lose those 3, it will be difficult to field a *better* team next year. Why not go for it now? Well, pretty much everyone else that I've seen comment on it looks at it in exactly the opposite way - if the bar for making the playoffs is lower, and the playoffs themselves more of a crapshoot, then it makes sense to build the consistently competitive roster that Bloom was hired to build, rather than go all in in any one season.
Dalbec, meanwhile, is on a league minimum salary and had a 135 wRC+ from July 1st on last season, and that was still within his first 540 major league PAs. How was it "crazy" to go into the season with him as the starting first baseman? Where would you have subtracted from the roster to improve them at 1B before the season started, assuming a roughly fixed payroll?
But I don’t assume a fixed payroll. Why should I? To save the owners money? They reset. They dumped salary. Is Rays-ball the new normal? Personally, I’d have Freeman at 1b, especially since they appear to have no intention of spending on X.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 11:34:39 GMT -5
Well, pretty much everyone else that I've seen comment on it looks at it in exactly the opposite way - if the bar for making the playoffs is lower, and the playoffs themselves more of a crapshoot, then it makes sense to build the consistently competitive roster that Bloom was hired to build, rather than go all in in any one season.
Dalbec, meanwhile, is on a league minimum salary and had a 135 wRC+ from July 1st on last season, and that was still within his first 540 major league PAs. How was it "crazy" to go into the season with him as the starting first baseman? Where would you have subtracted from the roster to improve them at 1B before the season started, assuming a roughly fixed payroll?
But I don’t assume a fixed payroll. Why should I? To save the owners money? They reset. They dumped salary. Is Rays-ball the new normal? Personally, I’d have Freeman at 1b, especially since they appear to have no intention of spending on X. It just ends every conversation when people say this. "They should have just spent $400 million and signed the biggest FA at every position; anything less than that and they are the Rays!"
Okay then, great chat.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 11:36:24 GMT -5
But I don’t assume a fixed payroll. Why should I? To save the owners money? They reset. They dumped salary. Is Rays-ball the new normal? Personally, I’d have Freeman at 1b, especially since they appear to have no intention of spending on X. It just ends every conversation when people say this. "They should have just spent $400 million and signed the biggest FA at every position; anything less than that and they are the Rays!"
Okay then, great chat. I did not say that. But cool. Dalbec is a good second choice. He’s been a real banger. I eagerly await a right side of Dalbec, Downs, and Verdugo. Juggernaut. Add: when did concern for billionaire’s profits become a statistic?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2022 11:44:41 GMT -5
Duran/Kiké/Verdugo/Refsnyder with Franchy/Arroyo available looks like the best OF configuration IMO Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season. Projections have Refsnyder at like .260/.330/.400 now. He's a major leaguer.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 11:47:55 GMT -5
It just ends every conversation when people say this. "They should have just spent $400 million and signed the biggest FA at every position; anything less than that and they are the Rays!"
Okay then, great chat. I did not say that. But cool. Dalbec is a good second choice. He’s been a real banger. I eagerly await a right side of Dalbec, Downs, and Verdugo. Juggernaut. Add: when did concern for billionaire’s profits become a statistic? For god's sake, I don't care about their profits. No one cares about their profits. If it were up to me they'd all be sent to the gulag for expropriating labor value - or at least taxed at 1950s rates. But you're rejecting the premise that they have any payroll constraints, even if they're self-imposed. That is a) unrealistic, and b) makes any conversation about roster-building completely uninteresting. "They should have signed Freeman for $27 million/year, and they should have done so without making any tradeoffs." Okay. And why not Scherzer, Correa, and Suzuki while they're at it? Just buy the whole candy store!
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 11:50:41 GMT -5
Bold prediction: JBJ will hit better than Refsnyder the rest of the season. Projections have Refsnyder at like .260/.330/.400 now. He's a major leaguer. I reject those projections, lol. Unlike me, they are updating HARD on that 10-game stretch and I don't really know why. Even including this season he has a career OPS of .640. Suddenly at age 31 he's a .730 guy? That doesn't pass the smell test.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2022 11:51:09 GMT -5
Refsnyder is a perfectly fine bench OF
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2022 11:57:37 GMT -5
Projections have Refsnyder at like .260/.330/.400 now. He's a major leaguer. I reject those projections, lol. Unlike me, they are updating HARD on that 10-game stretch and I don't really know why. Even including this season he has a career OPS of .640. Suddenly at age 31 he's a .730 guy? That doesn't pass the smell test. Since the COVID year, he's crushed AAA and his major league stats are fine despite a big xwOBA underperformance. There's no reason to look at his major league stats from 6 years ago.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 12:00:25 GMT -5
I did not say that. But cool. Dalbec is a good second choice. He’s been a real banger. I eagerly await a right side of Dalbec, Downs, and Verdugo. Juggernaut. Add: when did concern for billionaire’s profits become a statistic? For god's sake, I don't care about their profits. No one cares about their profits. If it were up to me they'd all be sent to the gulag for expropriating labor value - or at least taxed at 1950s rates. But you're rejecting the premise that they have any payroll constraints, even if they're self-imposed. That is a) unrealistic, and b) makes any conversation about roster-building completely uninteresting. "They should have signed Freeman for $27 million/year, and they should have done so without making any tradeoffs." Okay. And why not Scherzer, Correa, and Suzuki while they're at it? Just buy the whole candy store!
Ok, let’s keep it real. I’d have signed Freeman, not signed Story. Of course, the moment they signed Story, it became apparent that you could wipe X off the books after this year, so even with Story, you are talking about one season of one extra big salary. There is a tradeoff. Oh, and I would not have signed Paxton. I found the money. I hate signing oft-injured pitchers to contracts with the understanding that they might miss their first season almost entirely and *might* help next year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2022 12:08:01 GMT -5
For god's sake, I don't care about their profits. No one cares about their profits. If it were up to me they'd all be sent to the gulag for expropriating labor value - or at least taxed at 1950s rates. But you're rejecting the premise that they have any payroll constraints, even if they're self-imposed. That is a) unrealistic, and b) makes any conversation about roster-building completely uninteresting. "They should have signed Freeman for $27 million/year, and they should have done so without making any tradeoffs." Okay. And why not Scherzer, Correa, and Suzuki while they're at it? Just buy the whole candy store!
Ok, letâs keep it real. Iâd have signed Freeman, not signed Story. Of course, the moment they signed Story, it became apparent that you could wipe X off the books after this year, so even with Story, you are talking about one season of one extra big salary. There is a tradeoff. Oh, and I would not have signed Paxton. I found the money. I hate signing oft-injured pitchers to contracts with the understanding that they might miss their first season almost entirely and *might* help next year. The Story/Xander thing is no where near as locked in as you're saying, and even if you do make that assumption I don't know why you'd also make the assumption that they don't replace Xander's salary. As far as Freeman vs. Story, that feels like a pretty neutral trade off to me. Who plays second? Is Arroyo playing instead of Dalbec a great tradeoff? If it's Kiké who plays center? Is that team much more of a contender, I don't know. Besides that I really doubt Freeman was ever going anywhere besides Atlanta or LA based on his comments.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 12:13:12 GMT -5
For god's sake, I don't care about their profits. No one cares about their profits. If it were up to me they'd all be sent to the gulag for expropriating labor value - or at least taxed at 1950s rates. But you're rejecting the premise that they have any payroll constraints, even if they're self-imposed. That is a) unrealistic, and b) makes any conversation about roster-building completely uninteresting. "They should have signed Freeman for $27 million/year, and they should have done so without making any tradeoffs." Okay. And why not Scherzer, Correa, and Suzuki while they're at it? Just buy the whole candy store!
Ok, let’s keep it real. I’d have signed Freeman, not signed Story. Of course, the moment they signed Story, it became apparent that you could wipe X off the books after this year, so even with Story, you are talking about one season of one extra big salary. There is a tradeoff. Oh, and I would not have signed Paxton. I found the money. I hate signing oft-injured pitchers to contracts with the understanding that they might miss their first season almost entirely and *might* help next year. Okay. In that case I'd say:
-Freeman is signed for ages 32-37, Story for ages 29-34. Advantage Story as far as that goes. -Freeman blocks the team's best prospect in the upper minors; Story fills a position that is weak in the upper minors. -It is by no means obvious to me that going into 2022 with Arroyo as the starting 2B would be a less dicey proposition than Dalbec at 1B. If the idea is that there is "no excuse" to go into the season with big positional weaknesses, how would it be acceptable to go into the season with a guy with a career .296 wOBA and an alarming injury history as the starting second baseman?
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