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7/7-7/10 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 8, 2022 8:07:49 GMT -5
The trade was meant to trade salary on a player who was continuing to decrease for the most we can get. What don’t people understand about a fresh start. Benny needed that. Josh and Franchy have been good for us this year. Both are still young and we have years of control and Benny is a FA at the end of this season. The best part is we can always sign him and bring him back! Franchy is only under control one more year and Winck has a low ceiling. Benintendi had a bad year but was still really young and they basically sold as low as they possibly could have. Benintendi has been mediocre for KC. I would take 2022-23 Franchy over 2022-23 Benintendi given their respective skill and salaries. Benintendi: 68th percentile xwOBA, 41st percentile OAA (was mediocre in the field last year too despite the fraud GG), $8.5 million salary, FA salary next year. Franchy: 79th percentile xwOBA, 27th percentile OAA (would probably be better playing Benintendi's position than RF in Fenway and 1B where he's relatively new), $825k salary, probably a bit higher next year. Of course, the Benintendi trade has four other pieces. Winckowski has been solid for the Sox so far and has several years of control. He'll probably be useful for us either in the pen, in the back of the rotation, or as a trade chip. Who knows if the other three ever become anything, but it's early. Luis de la Rosa came out of the gate this year looking filthy. Gambrell is hurt and Valdez is only 20. Even with hindsight, which allows us to see Benintendi going back to being an average LF instead of the black hole he was at the end of 2019 into 2020, I would happily take this trade.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 8, 2022 8:28:25 GMT -5
I'm totally baffled by this whole line of thinking. The Red Sox are in first wild card position and still people won't stop talking about how desperately they want to make the team worse. I just have to wonder how little adversity someone must have faced in their life to want to quit so easily because of a 10-game stretch that doesn't go just precisely how they want it to. It’s not just this 10 game stretch, though. The Red Sox clearly aren’t in the same league as the Yankees this year. Same with Houston. They can’t beat Toronto or TB, either. They’ve feasted on shitty teams in the AL West and Central, but can’t beat the good teams. That formula won’t work in October. I’m not sure the best move is to trade everyone, but it’s naive to think they are a real contender this year. It's naive to ignore the probably cause of issues the team has had against the east. At the start of the year, almost the whole team was slumping. It didn't matter who was on the mound or where we were playing. It was a bloodbath. Meanwhile the pitching was decent. Now fast forward to July. The bats have come to life in a big way, but the pitching staff has been massacred by injuries. In a month's time we could have added Whitlock, Eovaldi, Wacha, Sale, Paxton, etc. to the staff. We're losing games now due to bad pitching more than anything. And despite all of our struggles to this point, we currently own WC2 with half the season left. You can be as doomerist as you'd like, but I would be shocked if the current team, plus those impact arms, can't win enough against the division to make the WC. Edit: And to belie the "Sox only beat bad teams" narrarive, we're 22-20 against over .500 teams. That's the same as Tampa Bay. Toronto is 24-28.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 8:34:10 GMT -5
In a century in which we've put a lot of hurtin' on the MFY and their dopey fans, we would take it to a new level if we sneak into the PS with an 85-win season and send their 111-win team packing. That's all I have. I have been thinking this since the Sox turned it around. I am hoping they end up being the '01 Seattle Mariners of this generation.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2022 8:38:48 GMT -5
It’s not just this 10 game stretch, though. The Red Sox clearly aren’t in the same league as the Yankees this year. Same with Houston. They can’t beat Toronto or TB, either. They’ve feasted on shitty teams in the AL West and Central, but can’t beat the good teams. That formula won’t work in October. I’m not sure the best move is to trade everyone, but it’s naive to think they are a real contender this year. It's naive to ignore the probably cause of issues the team has had against the east. At the start of the year, almost the whole team was slumping. It didn't matter who was on the mound or where we were playing. It was a bloodbath. Meanwhile the pitching was decent. Now fast forward to July. The bats have come to life in a big way, but the pitching staff has been massacred by injuries. In a month's time we could have added Whitlock, Eovaldi, Wacha, Sale, Paxton, etc. to the staff. We're losing games now due to bad pitching more than anything. And despite all of our struggles to this point, we currently own WC2 with half the season left. You can be as doomerist as you'd like, but I would be shocked if the current team, plus those impact arms, can't win enough against the division to make the WC. Edit: And to belie the "Sox only beat bad teams" narrarive, we're 22-20 against over .500 teams. That's the same as Tampa Bay. Toronto is 24-28. It’s almost like good teams are harder to beat than bad teams lol. Idk why people expect them to be 30-12 against good teams They’re getting their balls kicked in by the division and that’s a little frustrating but as a whole they don’t have a major problem beating good teams.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 8:41:16 GMT -5
Wait, did the pendulum swing back to "Franchy's worthless" already? He has a 105 wRC+ despite being hella unlucky; his xwOBA is 15 points higher than Benintendi's.
I don't even blame him for the missed pop up, really; it's not his fault he's playing out of position. You can thank Dalbec's underperformance and/or the roster construction for that.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 8:43:18 GMT -5
I get that JBJ has probably reached the end, but riddle me this: what is the difference between JBJ and Verdugo? Only JBJ went into today with either an oWAR OR dWAR in the positives. Verdugo is a 0 oWAR, a -.2 dWAR. At least Jackie can field. About $8.4M, AAV would be the difference. Both are dead weight at this point, though given Verdugo's age, he may be able to right whatever it is that has sucked the pop out of his bat. Or maybe, like JBJ, he's a 4th OF at best on a winning team. Verdugo for Bennitendi might not be a bad trade at this point. I know Benni's only a rental, but he has a high OBP and would do just as well in LF as Verdugo. And KC would get a few years of an OF. Then, in the off-season, Bloom can sort out this OF, which at this point looks like Duran, a platoon of someone with Franchy and an outside option. It continues to be a weak spot, along with first base.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2022 8:57:42 GMT -5
Are we now spewing fiction about Verdugo not being able to play LF?
Place gets clownish after a divisional loss
I’d go drink bleach if they traded Verdugo for Benintendi. He’s been the unluckiest hitter in baseball and still has more xbh and is actually under team control
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 8, 2022 9:12:46 GMT -5
Paxton at 37 'might' be a bullpen arm, but not a starter. Sale...we'll see, but his stuff apparently has regressed...which is understandable given TJ, repetitive injuries plus passed prime age. This is not our year. Xander can opt out. JD trending down...no power. If we wait, those guys will be gone for nothing. Let's make some deals and recoup something for a 2024 run. Just an fyi but Paxton is 33. Turning 34 in November. Hey, thank you. Somehow 37 was etched in my cerebral cortex. I appreciate the correction and hope he can give us a few good years.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 9:14:55 GMT -5
Are we now spewing fiction about Verdugo not being able to play LF? Place gets clownish after a divisional loss I’d go drink bleach if they traded Verdugo for Benintendi. He’s been the unluckiest hitter in baseball and still has more xbh and is actually under team control That was me before caffeine. Bottom line, we need more production from the OF corners and first base. A "spark plug" guy would be nice, too.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2022 9:16:27 GMT -5
I'm thinking JBJ doesn't survive Kiké's return
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 8, 2022 9:35:41 GMT -5
I’m more upset we didn’t resign Iglesias then trading Benny and I was a huge Benny fan. Dude needed a fresh start and from what I read worked out with brock holt and mookie all offseason and tweaked his swing. Maybe he doesn’t do that if he’s still on the Sox. I’ll do that trade right now because at the end of the day we can still bring him back next year if we wanted.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 8, 2022 9:37:12 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2022 9:44:25 GMT -5
The Red Sox lost by 1 to the best team in baseball while that team had their ace pitching and the Sox had their minor league depth starting.
Suddenly it’s trade Xander, Story’s a bad contract, Verdugo stinks, Winckowski can never be a starter.
Yeah the team is in a little bit of a cold stretch, the entire rotation is injured, and yet they’d still make the playoffs if the season ended today. Let’s breathe guys.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 8, 2022 9:50:17 GMT -5
It’s not just this 10 game stretch, though. The Red Sox clearly aren’t in the same league as the Yankees this year. Same with Houston. They can’t beat Toronto or TB, either. They’ve feasted on shitty teams in the AL Weat and Central, but can’t beat the good teams. That formula won’t work in October. I’m not sure the best move is to trade everyone, but it’s naive to think they are a real contender this year. Were the Braves in the same league as the Dodgers or the Giants last year?
For that matter were the Red Sox in the same league as the Rays last year? They finished 8 games behind them.
Was anyone in the same league as the 116-win Mariners team in 2001?
Appreciate what you are trying to do here, but I just don’t see it. The Braves were a huge glitch situation where a 40-1 or 50-1 longshot wins it all(incidentally the Braves had the 4th best WS odds when the 2021 season began). They basically underperformed all year and got hot at the right time. When the Sox beat the Rays last year, that was an upset, for sure, but the kind of upset that happens all the time. That was nothing too crazy. It was also the end of the road for the Sox. The 2001 Mariners are actually the OPPOSITE point of the one I’m trying to make. I wasn’t saying that the best team always wins it all. We know that is not the case. The Sox are looking at a situation where they would have to beat 2 of TB, TOR, HOU and NYY on the road in the postseason. Could they beat TOR or TB? Maybe(though I am skeptical). Could they beat NYY or HOU after that? I would say “no”. They just don’t have the roster to do it this year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2022 9:52:16 GMT -5
I agree with people who feel seasons typically are championship or bust in Boston, but I totally disagree with the notion that this team can’t win a championship.
If you make the playoffs with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Paxton (or Wacha or Whitlock) in the rotation you have a chance. Obviously that requires a few things to break right in their recoveries, but every championship team needs health luck.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 10:02:31 GMT -5
I agree with people who feel seasons typically are championship or bust in Boston, but I totally disagree with the notion that this team can’t win a championship. If you make the playoffs with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Paxton (or Wacha or Whitlock) in the rotation you have a chance. Obviously that requires a few things to break right in their recoveries, but every championship team needs health luck. What is frustrating though is that given this, just imagine if they had a 1b and an OF? Given that the new system makes squeaking into the playoffs pretty easy, and given that at that point it is a whole new season, then there is no excuse for not doing what you can to maximize yourself for that run.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2022 10:14:09 GMT -5
I agree with people who feel seasons typically are championship or bust in Boston, but I totally disagree with the notion that this team can’t win a championship. If you make the playoffs with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Paxton (or Wacha or Whitlock) in the rotation you have a chance. Obviously that requires a few things to break right in their recoveries, but every championship team needs health luck. What is frustrating though is that given this, just imagine if they had a 1b and an OF? Given that the new system makes squeaking into the playoffs pretty easy, and given that at that point it is a whole new season, then there is no excuse for not doing what you can to maximize yourself for that run. Agree. I think several of us were singing this song in the off-season.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2022 10:17:41 GMT -5
So really Winckowski had one terrible inning against the best team in baseballs top of the order and everybody is down on him again and he has no ceiling and no future as a SP lol With the stuff LDLR was showing in Salem I do LDLR/Franchy/Winckowski for Benintendi in a heartbeat. You can even forget the other two scratch tickets. If Winckowski sticks as a 5 the trade is a win. You have a Cost-controlled starting pitcher for years. Everything else is gravy. Benintendi just struck out so it's a good trade again.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2022 10:21:26 GMT -5
I agree with people who feel seasons typically are championship or bust in Boston, but I totally disagree with the notion that this team can’t win a championship. If you make the playoffs with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Paxton (or Wacha or Whitlock) in the rotation you have a chance. Obviously that requires a few things to break right in their recoveries, but every championship team needs health luck. What is frustrating though is that given this, just imagine if they had a 1b and an OF? Given that the new system makes squeaking into the playoffs pretty easy, and given that at that point it is a whole new season, then there is no excuse for not doing what you can to maximize yourself for that run. Eduardo Nunez had the 6th most PAs on the team in 2018. Their catchers combined to hit .202/.254/.293, the worst line in the majors by far. At 3B they combined for an 83 wRC+. They were essentially replacement level at 3 different positions. That team won 108 games.
Also, people are making some really definitive statements about how ready this roster is to make a playoff run, when we don't know what the roster will look like yet. Maybe Josh Bell will be the first baseman and Franchy will be an everyday outfielder by August.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2022 10:24:42 GMT -5
I've come to the conclusion that I should only be here when the Red Sox win by a lot to not be drug down into a spiraling cesspool of negativity. It's f'ing awful.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 8, 2022 10:26:57 GMT -5
Are we now spewing fiction about Verdugo not being able to play LF? Place gets clownish after a divisional loss I’d go drink bleach if they traded Verdugo for Benintendi. He’s been the unluckiest hitter in baseball and still has more xbh and is actually under team control At least you'd be safe from covid... [ducks]
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 8, 2022 10:28:12 GMT -5
I'm thinking JBJ doesn't survive Kiké's return JBJ is a really good bench OF. I think that's where he goes when Kique comes back.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2022 10:34:32 GMT -5
My question is who should the team have gotten for OF and 1B in the off-season that would make a substantial improvement to their playoff odds vs the current Verdugo/Kiké/Duran/Franchy/Refsnyder combo? And also, which of those choices was so obvious that meant it wasn't worth trying to see if JBJs bat could bounce back at all or if Dalbec could keep it up? They can still add someone at the deadline now that they've answered those questions, and I don't think a half season of any of the realistic off-season choices would be changing their playoff positioning much at all.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2022 10:39:04 GMT -5
What is frustrating though is that given this, just imagine if they had a 1b and an OF? Given that the new system makes squeaking into the playoffs pretty easy, and given that at that point it is a whole new season, then there is no excuse for not doing what you can to maximize yourself for that run. Eduardo Nunez had the 6th most PAs on the team in 2018. Their catchers combined to hit .202/.254/.293, the worst line in the majors by far. At 3B they combined for an 83 wRC+. They were essentially replacement level at 3 different positions. That team won 108 games.
Also, people are making some really definitive statements about how ready this roster is to make a playoff run, when we don't know what the roster will look like yet. Maybe Josh Bell will be the first baseman and Franchy will be an everyday outfielder by August.
And yet… this team will not. What does this comparison mean? Because one great team had some bad players, having bad players is ok? I am not assuming this is the roster. But the weaknesses at 1b and OF were obvious at the start of the season. I suppose part of my point is that if the theory is once in the playoffs it is anyone’s game — and if the playoffs are really not that hard to make now — then it makes even less sense to put off making moves to improve you in the present.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 8, 2022 10:41:14 GMT -5
I'm thinking JBJ doesn't survive Kiké's return JBJ is a really good bench OF. I think that's where he goes when Kique comes back. Duran/Kiké/Verdugo/Refsnyder with Franchy/Arroyo available looks like the best OF configuration IMO
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