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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 21, 2022 6:26:52 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 21, 2022 10:28:52 GMT -5
I almost forgot I think Northcut deserves a promotion to AA.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2022 10:47:26 GMT -5
I dunno. If Northcut was a golfer, he'd be that guy you never heard of who won the long-drive competition that they show on Sunday afternoon in the golf off-season. I think I'd rather promote someone who has a better chance to make it to AAA, like Niko...
2022 K/BB Northcut 112/21 Kavadas 88/72
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2022 11:09:16 GMT -5
Nick Northcut has a .290 OBP.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 21, 2022 11:16:20 GMT -5
Look at the league batting averages are down . Some guys do a different job . Plus you get stale sometimes. They just promoted someone I though was curious. There’s different
reasons to promote. Just my opinion.
I’m with you on Niko.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 21, 2022 11:20:26 GMT -5
Casas not in the FCL lineup. Hopefully means he’s headed back up to Worcester.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 21, 2022 11:23:13 GMT -5
Casas not in the FCL lineup. Hopefully means he’s headed back up to Worcester. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 11:28:05 GMT -5
Since May 24, Northcut has hit .205/.277/.453 with a 33.9% K rate. I'd go so far as to say he is not even having a good season, which is a weird thing to say about someone with 26 home runs. He basically got stupidly hot, but only so far as hitting home runs, for a 28-game stretch from April 13 to May 21, in which he hit 15 bombs, but even during that time, he hit .261/.311/.712 with a 37.0% K rate, and just 9 singles and 5 doubles.
He's regressing to the mean hard (to the extent there was even regression - it's a weird thing to say but the only thing he was doing well was hitting home runs when he was "hot").
It's kind of funny, he's got 21 walks on the year, and 6 were in a three-game stretch from June 12-15. Two different teams too, so it's not like he was hot and getting pitched around.
You know how a guy can hit .300 and it doesn't mean he's hitting well? Think Gilberto Jimenez's empty .306/.346/.405 last year. Northcut's season this year is the opposite. He's Matt Christopher's "the kid who only hit home runs" in the flesh.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2022 11:52:00 GMT -5
Okay, once I started comparing these two guys, I couldn't stop.
Here is a table of their outcomes (with # of PAs in parentheses). (The "other out" category is simply 100% minus all the others because the B-Ref stats aren't very granular.)
| 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | HBP
| K | SF | GDP | Other out
| Nick (314)
| 8.6% | 3.8% | 0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 0% | 1.6% | 35.7% | 0% | 2.2% | 36.0%
| Niko (331)
| 9.1% | 6.0% | 0.3% | 6.6% | 21.8%
| 0.3% | 3.0% | 26.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 25.1% |
Nick's three true outcomes total 47.8%. Niko's three true outcomes total 55.0%. He also has way more hits that have to be fielded. I don't necessarily think a higher 3TO is better but it is what it is.
Nick's K-BB% is 31.9% (!) Niko's K-BB% is 4.8% (!!) If you include IBB, it's 4.5% and if you include HBP, it's 1.5%. (!!!)
I'd add the caveat that most of Niko's PAs came in Salem but his numbers in Greenville (where Nick has spent the entire season thus far) are actually better than the Salem numbers.
Long story short, Niko should be unpacking a suitcase in Portland today and eating five lobster rolls. Not sure about Nick...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 12:49:05 GMT -5
Kavadas has 77 plate appearances in Greenville. Give him a month.
There is no functional difference between moving him up now versus mid August. He's almost certainly going to start next year in Portland. Why rush it?
As for the comparison, they're not similar hitters for both being power guys. Kavadas doesn't chase often. Northcut will expand. Both will swing and miss in the zone. Kavadas hits the ball hard more often.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2022 13:09:15 GMT -5
He's Matt Christopher's "the kid who only hit home runs" in the flesh. Now there's an A+ reference. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2022 13:43:59 GMT -5
The reason to rush Niko is that if he manages to annihilate AA pitching for two months then he starts looking like a 2023 midseason call up. If he keeps this heater up, I'm gonna be pretty interested to see just how crazy the offseason computer projections are for him.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2022 13:53:40 GMT -5
Kavadas has 77 plate appearances in Greenville. Give him a month. There is no functional difference between moving him up now versus mid August. He's almost certainly going to start next year in Portland. Why rush it? As for the comparison, they're not similar hitters for both being power guys. Kavadas doesn't chase often. Northcut will expand. Both will swing and miss in the zone. Kavadas hits the ball hard more often. Umm, did you miss the part about the lobster rolls? Also, much better summer weather, at least IMO. Granted, Greenville is a great place to be with lots of great restaurants and bars. I would say the lobster roll equivalent down there is fried chicken and it's probably a sight cheaper than a lobster roll. [ Nick and Niko enter a Greenville diner, in uniform. Niko: "I'll have four whole fried chickens." Nick: "White toast. Plain, no butter."] I agree that the most likely outcome is that an extra month in AA won't make a difference but he is so unchallenged thus far where he is. I would say that there is at least a chance that he does the same thing in Portland that he's done in Salem and Greenville. If he does that for 6 weeks in AA (as opposed to 2 weeks), maybe they rethink where he starts next season? Maybe he can show Castellanos how to hit bombs? You're probably right that even continuing his torrid season in the Eastern League wouldn't get him to Worcester next April but it's got to be at least a 90th percentile outcome. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 21, 2022 13:58:22 GMT -5
The reason to rush Niko is that if he manages to annihilate AA pitching for two months then he starts looking like a 2023 midseason call up. If he keeps this heater up, I'm gonna be pretty interested to see just how crazy the offseason computer projections are for him. I don't think that's the conclusion at all. Just because Devers and Mookie raced through the system doesn't mean everyone has to. Let these guys develop. He's not a 2023 midseason call up at all. Maybe 2024, sure. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2022 14:10:19 GMT -5
I mean, he has the highest wOBA in all of affiliated baseball. Second place is like 40 points behind. If this isn't a race through the system season then I don't know what is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 14:34:03 GMT -5
Kavadas has faced 4 teams in the SAL. Let's let him get around the league (or whatever percentage Greenville actually plays) once maybe? I don't think it's reasonable to draw conclusions from a 77 PA sample, even one this good.
I think it's super unreasonable to think he's in the majors next season. I think at this point he's locked into starting 2023 in Portland. The question is whether you give him a cup of coffee there at the end of this season. Moving him in mid-August when you're more comfortable with the sample accomplishes that.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2022 14:40:21 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that prospects need to be pushed until they struggle or else they can develop bad habits and never learn how to make adjustments. Baseball is all about getting out of slumps quickly by making adjustments. Kavadas hasn't even come close to struggling yet. He clearly should have started the season in Greenville and likely would have already been promoted to Portland if he had.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 14:42:17 GMT -5
I mean, he has the highest wOBA in all of affiliated baseball. Second place is like 40 points behind. If this isn't a race through the system season then I don't know what is. You don't promote a guy because of his wOBA. Does he have anything to work on at the level? For one thing, I note that Kavadas has a pretty huge L/R split for the season, a difference of 500 points of OPS. He has done almost all of his XBH damage against RHP (39 in 272 PA versus 4 in 59 PA). Unfortunately, I don't have L/R splits for the level, but I can't imagine they've improved a ton. That's one dev point I'm sure they're looking at. He's also getting more time at 1B in Greenville than he was in Salem , where he had to DH more due to all of Mayer, Paulino, Bonaci and Jordan in the IF (although you could argue he can work on defense anywhere, for sure). I'm trying to think of guys they've given merit-based in-season promotions to from a relatively age-appropriate level with fewer than 150 PA. I can't. Benintendi went from Low to High-A after 80-something PA but that was a promotion entering his first pro season. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2022 14:49:26 GMT -5
Kavadas has a 1.032 OPS vs LHP in Greenville according to this site. I'm not sure why he isn't facing more LHP because that's just 14 PAs. But 1.032 is a really terrible OPS for him, since it's 1.434 vs RHP.
Last point on this - I don't want any prospect walking 23% of the time until they get to the majors. It's just a sign that it's not even difficult for them. It should be.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2022 14:58:17 GMT -5
Lyonell James collects two more hits and draws a walk without a K. The rest of the team only drew one other walk today while striking out 11 times.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2022 15:02:16 GMT -5
Kavadas has a 1.032 OPS vs LHP in Greenville according to this site. I'm not sure why he isn't facing more LHP because that's just 14 PAs. But 1.032 is a really terrible OPS for him, since it's 1.434 vs RHP. Last point on this - I don't want any prospect walking 23% of the time until they get to the majors. It's just a sign that it's not even difficult for them. It should be. Not to say you've been posting that for years, but we had that same conversation in like 2016 about Josh Ockimey, who was promoted pretty aggressively. Anyway, a 23% walk rate for three weeks is not a sign that a player isn't being challenged. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2022 15:15:38 GMT -5
Prediction: If Niko doesn't cool off in August and September, then in the offseason every single projection spreadsheet will say that Niko is the second best hitter in the org for 2023, behind Rafael Devers.
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Post by e on Jul 21, 2022 15:30:38 GMT -5
Kavadas has a 1.032 OPS vs LHP in Greenville according to this site. I'm not sure why he isn't facing more LHP because that's just 14 PAs. But 1.032 is a really terrible OPS for him, since it's 1.434 vs RHP. Last point on this - I don't want any prospect walking 23% of the time until they get to the majors. It's just a sign that it's not even difficult for them. It should be. Not to say you've been posting that for years, but we had that same conversation in like 2016 about Josh Ockimey, who was promoted pretty aggressively. Anyway, a 23% walk rate for three weeks is not a sign that a player isn't being challenged. I think age should play a role in this. When Ockimey went from high-A to AA in 2017 he was only 21, while Kavadas is 23. If he was 20 years old, I think letting him play in Greenville for the rest of the year makes sense. But when nobody is really blocking him at first base in Portland, then I don't understand the reasoning for keeping him in Greenville for another month |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2022 15:50:46 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2022 16:17:44 GMT -5
Kavadas has a 1.032 OPS vs LHP in Greenville according to this site. I'm not sure why he isn't facing more LHP because that's just 14 PAs. But 1.032 is a really terrible OPS for him, since it's 1.434 vs RHP. Last point on this - I don't want any prospect walking 23% of the time until they get to the majors. It's just a sign that it's not even difficult for them. It should be. Not to say you've been posting that for years, but we had that same conversation in like 2016 about Josh Ockimey, who was promoted pretty aggressively. Anyway, a 23% walk rate for three weeks is not a sign that a player isn't being challenged. I get the point, but Ockimey wasn't close to 23%. He just now hit 20% for the first time in AA this year. He also had a wRC+ 100 points lower at 130ish. And he never did struggle until he reached AAA, even though he was nowhere near the hitter that Kavadas has been at any level. It's not so much that he has a 23% walk rate for 3 weeks. It's that his walk rate went up and K rate went down after being promoted. He has a .481 ISO! lol |
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