|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 21, 2022 16:27:45 GMT -5
Let's give it more than a 77AB sample size though
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jul 21, 2022 17:44:06 GMT -5
Lyonell James collects two more hits and draws a walk without a K. The rest of the team only drew one other walk today while striking out 11 times. That's because Lyonell James is the absolute goat!
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jul 21, 2022 17:48:45 GMT -5
Kavadas has faced 4 teams in the SAL. Let's let him get around the league (or whatever percentage Greenville actually plays) once maybe? I don't think it's reasonable to draw conclusions from a 77 PA sample, even one this good. I think it's super unreasonable to think he's in the majors next season. I think at this point he's locked into starting 2023 in Portland. The question is whether you give him a cup of coffee there at the end of this season. Moving him in mid-August when you're more comfortable with the sample accomplishes that. I think the Bayesian perspective is generally helpful in cases like this. You have some conservative prior belief about the player, and as you receive new data in the form of performance at the new level, you update your beliefs. Both the amount of new data and the degree to which it differs from your prior inform how quickly your beliefs change.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,582
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 21, 2022 18:16:43 GMT -5
First 77 Advanced A Plate Appearances: Player | BB% | K% | IsoP | Alex Binelas | 17.7% | 28.1% | .312 | Niko Kavadas | 23.4% | 23.4% | .481 |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2022 21:48:35 GMT -5
Kavadas has a 1.032 OPS vs LHP in Greenville according to this site. I'm not sure why he isn't facing more LHP because that's just 14 PAs. But 1.032 is a really terrible OPS for him, since it's 1.434 vs RHP. Last point on this - I don't want any prospect walking 23% of the time until they get to the majors. It's just a sign that it's not even difficult for them. It should be. Wow, a demerit for me for not looking here. Good call. Yikes. As for "why he isn't facing more LHP," it's because he HAS 77 PA TOTAL AT THE LEVEL. (And it's actually 18 PA, 14 AB.) This is literally my point! He's actually faced LHP in 23% of his PA in Greenville as opposed to 16% in Salem. If you want to have more fun with that SSS, he's struck out in 7 of the 18 PA against A+ LHP, a robust 38.9% rate. 1 1B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 7 K, and apparently 4 outs on balls in play.
|
|