8/14 Gameday Thread: Drohan Eyes Portland Promotion

I've only seen a few Portland games this year and, of course, read the stat lines pretty closely. So, asking from people who know better: am I right in believing that Rafaela is the only legit potential MLB regular position player on that team right now?

Binelas and Abreu have a shot, but their odds are a lot worse than Rafaela's.  Koss and Hamilton might play in the majors some.

Duran down, Jaylin DFA I would imagine

I think I would prefer an Ort DFA

you could also drop Sanchez since Kiké and Arroyo can cover 2b and Arroyo would not be needed as RHH OF

Shane Drohan is pitching a no hitter through 5 innings with 7 punchouts.
Yorke is 2-3 with a bomb
Blaze reached base via walks twice.
2020 Draft? *Chef Kiss*

Mayer says hold my beer.

Mayer was 0-2 and raised his OPS.


What happened to Zeferjahn ? Has his stuff diminished ?

You don’t mess with the Drohan

I got that, but none of those guys project right now, correct? We talk about the pipeline, but it still seems pretty lean for those looking for a mostly-homegrown team in the relative near future (i.e. 2023-25). The horses just don't look to be there. At least, if the MLB team wants to win and doesn't get to play in the NL or AL Central. Just looking at current results and projections, there seems to be somewhere between 2-4 legit guys who may crack the line-up in the next 3 years. Specifically:

Casas at the beginning to mid-2023. The latter if he seems middling from here to the end of AAA or they decide to manipulate his service time. With Hosmer making league minimum on the Sox payroll, the Front Office could justify holding Casas back a few or more weeks to manipulate time by saying they think he needs a 100-150 or so more PAs in AAA to make up for developmental time lost to this year's injury.

Rafaela late 2023 if everything breaks perfectly for him, but more likely 2024 if he continues this performance through AAA. He needs to become more selective at the plate and not help pitchers so much going forward. He's taken some steps in this direction since getting to AA, but not much. He's definitely the one guy in AA/AAA right now who seems to have the best odds of defying his original projections. Having so much positional flexibility and being a plus defender with a plus are in the OF really helps. With that profile in CF, he could be the second coming of JBJ and get by on a .300-.310 OBP as long as he makes up value hitting 15-20 HRs a year and with his speed on the bases. He could really boost his stock, though, if he learns to work more walks and lay off bad pitches. Sad that the Sox used to emphasize this in the minors more. Seems to have gone by the wayside. The tools are very good, but he's a real outlier and could get stymied by more exposure to advanced pitching.

Mayer late-2024 but more likely 2025. Barring a significant injury or just somehow not adjusting in AA/AAA to advanced pitching, this guy is the starting SS in 2025, unless they trade him in a deal for an elite starter with a lot of years of control - something this farm decidedly does not have.

Unless Yorke goes off in AA, he's looking like a mid- to late-2025 guy or maybe 2026, if he makes it. The injury set his developmental growth back a half year. He's a hit-tool heavy guy with only moderate power. Could profile as a lead-off guy, but he would really have to continue his early flash of being an OBP machine to do so. An everyday player on a contending team who is less than an average defender needs to get on base 35-38% of the time or more, unless he has big, regularly displayed power.

Jordan is the current borderline case who continues to hit and is somewhat defying his projections. But he better hit, because he has virtually no other tools. For him, that likely means first base or DH as a future position, which means high OBP and 25+ HRs a year. That could be a challenge for him when he starts to see advanced pitching. TBA, but, at least right now, he might be a sell-high guy if he starts generating buzz with other teams.

Bleis is nice to dream on but so far down in the system really tough to even go there. But even if he's legit, he's just too far away.

And that's it in the next three years, and that's best-case with the first 4. Anything can happen, but baseball is built on the "would-be" careers guys who look like sure things right up to AAA, only to not make it.

The system may be a bit deeper, but Chaim will have to go shopping pretty extensively to field teams in the next 3 years.

I agree with your short term assessment - 2023 looks like another year like 2021 and 2022 - an average season will have them fighting for a lower wild card seed. 2024 and 2025 are a long way's away, though.

If they can produce one worthwhile position player a year, they'll be in great shape. They produced zero in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, and that's why we don't get to have as much fun as Astros fans right now.

The cheap pitching on next year's team is looking pretty impressive - Crawford, Bello, Winckowski, Houck, Schreiber and Whitlock will all be pre-arby. Mata, Walter and Murphy as possible mid season reinforcements.