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9/9-9/11 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 10, 2022 10:32:52 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like a half bad idea, it sounds like a full bad idea. And congrats on opening up a hole in RF in a bad FA class. Verdugo has been a LF 75 percent of the time in 2022. Yes, until they got Pham, your idea for the 2023 LF... Hence the hole in RF
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 10:38:10 GMT -5
Pointed out how Verdugo is kind of a problem at a raised salary in another thread. For the second year in arbitration, not sure if he's worth spending the money on or trading for something else. You don't have many options in the outfield (which is a huge problem), but not sure if Verdugo is a answer to anything. Maybe the new rules helps Verdugo since he's a ground ball heavy hitter. Not worth the money? He's projected at like $6mil, show me a better option at that amount. Yep this is the correct take. Has Verdugo reached the potential we hoped when he was acquired? Nope. Is he still a valuable player at his relatively low pay? Yep. Those two things can be true at the same time. This team has enough holes going into the offseason that dealing Verdugo makes no sense to me. The only way it would is if he was dealt for ML talent that fills another hole. Otherwise Verdugo is a fine player to play LF next year for the Sox for relatively cheap.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 10, 2022 10:45:52 GMT -5
I do not get the Verdugo bashing. He is the 3rd best offensive player on the team and plays average defense and also plays most every day. He will be a way better bargain than the Hernandez contract at 10 mill When the best you can say about a guy is “well, at least he doesn’t make a lot of money”, you know you have lowered your standards. Verdugo has regressed badly since he arrived. He peaked in 2020 and has gone down every year since in BA, OBP, SLG & OPS(not exactly trivial stats). Considering he was the headliner the Sox got back in the Mookie trade, Verdugo’s regression and mediocrity hurt even more. I don’t get how he has any supporters out there, actually. The fact that you conflate Verdugo being a “disappointing” return in the Mookie deal and his actual value to the 2023 Red Sox is a pretty dead giveaway that you have no shred of objectivity or reason on this. It also says a lot about you that when faced with almost complete consensus refuting your opinion, your instinct is to wonder why everyone else is wrong and not self-evaluate. I promise you what you’re missing is very obvious.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2022 10:57:12 GMT -5
Not worth the money? He's projected at like $6mil, show me a better option at that amount. One WAR worth around that amount. Probably could get that from virtually anywhere. I bet Pham could give you that or better for 6 million next year.Maybe another team sees something more in Verdugo's potential and age and pays more for it in a trade. Edit- A Duran/Pham platoon in LF next year actually doesn't sound like a half bad idea to revive Duran's career. The claim is that a 35 year old Pham, who has been worse than Verdugo for three years running and is trending down, would be as good or better than a 27-year-old Verdugo next year? What could your logic possibly be?
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Post by benzinger on Sept 10, 2022 10:57:15 GMT -5
When the best you can say about a guy is “well, at least he doesn’t make a lot of money”, you know you have lowered your standards. Verdugo has regressed badly since he arrived. He peaked in 2020 and has gone down every year since in BA, OBP, SLG & OPS(not exactly trivial stats). Considering he was the headliner the Sox got back in the Mookie trade, Verdugo’s regression and mediocrity hurt even more. I don’t get how he has any supporters out there, actually. The fact that you conflate Verdugo being a “disappointing” return in the Mookie deal and his actual value to the 2023 Red Sox is a pretty dead giveaway that you have no shred of objectivity or reason on this. It also says a lot about you that when faced with almost complete consensus refuting your opinion, your instinct is to wonder why everyone else is wrong and not self-evaluate. I promise you what you’re missing is very obvious. 1. He IS a disappointing return on Mookie 2. How much “value” can a declining talent(with a rising cost) on a last place team have? 3. You ignored him regressing in all the major stats since he arrived. 4. There is nothing approaching consensus on this topic.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:00:40 GMT -5
Verdugo has been a LF 75 percent of the time in 2022. Yes, until they got Pham, your idea for the 2023 LF... Hence the hole in RF I don't think that's really the long-term outlook, however. Verdugo hasn't played RF regularly since 2020. I'm pretty sure they peg him as a everyday LF that can play RF on occasion. Getting Pham was a short term solution. Kind of the problem with Verdugo. You're hoping for a sweet swinging RF (like JD Drew reborn), who plays solid defense out there. When in reality, you have a ground ball hitting LF.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:01:28 GMT -5
One WAR worth around that amount. Probably could get that from virtually anywhere. I bet Pham could give you that or better for 6 million next year.Maybe another team sees something more in Verdugo's potential and age and pays more for it in a trade. Edit- A Duran/Pham platoon in LF next year actually doesn't sound like a half bad idea to revive Duran's career. The claim is that a 35 year old Pham, who has been worse than Verdugo for three years running and is trending down, would be as good or better than a 27-year-old Verdugo next year? What could your logic possibly be? Well Duran and Pham platoon, if not get something at the 2023 trade deadline. There's always a way to find a LF that can give you around 1-2 WAR. Heck, go get Gallo for a cheap one year deal if you want. I'm not looking through all the Free agent and trade options, because there's probably too many to count.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2022 11:07:37 GMT -5
The claim is that a 35 year old Pham, who has been worse than Verdugo for three years running and is trending down, would be as good or better than a 27-year-old Verdugo next year? What could your logic possibly be? Well Duran and Pham platoon, if not get something at the 2023 trade deadline. That is a different statement from the statement I bolded, and in any case it is still implausible to project a Pham/Duran platoon to be better than Verdugo.
I dunno what's going on in this conversation, but Verdugo is an above average hitter - 107 wRC+ this season, same as last season. He's very consistently been a 2 WAR player over the last several seasons. There's just no case at all for arguing that he's a problem the team needs to solve, unless you have some specific idea for upgrading the outfield that's better than "platoon a couple of marginal guys, one of whom will cost free agent money."
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 11:11:08 GMT -5
The fact that you conflate Verdugo being a “disappointing” return in the Mookie deal and his actual value to the 2023 Red Sox is a pretty dead giveaway that you have no shred of objectivity or reason on this. It also says a lot about you that when faced with almost complete consensus refuting your opinion, your instinct is to wonder why everyone else is wrong and not self-evaluate. I promise you what you’re missing is very obvious. 1. He IS a disappointing return on Mookie 2. How much “value” can a declining talent(with a rising cost) on a last place team have? 3. You ignored him regressing in all the major stats since he arrived. 4. There is nothing approaching consensus on this topic. Not even going to bother with point 1 there. Point 2, a 2 WAR player making 6 million dollars is plenty of value. He's 27 not 35 there's no reason to expect he completely falls off a cliff talent wise next year. You act like Verdugo is in line to make 20 million next year or something. The Red Sox aren't going to field an all star team next year or any year really. Teams need guys like Verdugo who are solid major leaguers under their controllable contract years.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 10, 2022 11:12:18 GMT -5
I think an issue with Verdugo is he got really lucky in 2020, way outperforming his x-stats, so expectations build on him. Naturally he hasn’t been at that level since so it feels like he fell off but really he’s just been consistently average and never took the next step, which is too bad, but I think peoples perceptions are skewed by a lucky 2020.
Also he does seem to have a real clutch skill, which I don’t think gets talked about enough. He way over-indexes in WPA, so I think he’s effectively more valuable than the average 2 WAR player he’s suggested as too. The opposite of Renfroe for example who is less valuable than his WAR suggests for the fact that he is very unclutch.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:13:47 GMT -5
Well Duran and Pham platoon, if not get something at the 2023 trade deadline. That is a different statement from the statement I bolded, and in any case it is still implausible to project a Pham/Duran platoon to be better than Verdugo.
I dunno what's going on in this conversation, but Verdugo is an above average hitter - 107 wRC+ this season, same as last season. He's very consistently been a 2 WAR player over the last several seasons. There's just no case at all for arguing that he's a problem the team needs to solve, unless you have some specific idea for upgrading the outfield that's better than "platoon a couple of marginal guys, one of whom will cost free agent money."
If you can subtract Verdugo, you can add somewhere else. I don't think the margin is that much between a Pham/Duran platoon, versus Verdugo. 1 WAR difference and that's if Duran doesn't break out. The Sox need a bunch of answers at multiple positions. I don't think they're very well setup in 2023. I would just like to sell on Verdugo with the hopes of cashing in his last 2 controllable years.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 10, 2022 11:17:09 GMT -5
I would think fans of the team whose best position players produced over the last five years are Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran should find it easy to appreciate the scarce value of a nice 2 WAR player.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:21:11 GMT -5
I would think fans of the team whose best position players produced over the last five years are Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran should find it easy to appreciate the scarce value of a nice 2 WAR player. The five years prior to that they produced JBJ, Xander, Devers, Benintendi, Vazquez. Look, I'm not saying Verdugo isn't worth anything. What I'm saying is a LF who's worth 2 WAR is not hard to replace versus other positions.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 11:22:17 GMT -5
That is a different statement from the statement I bolded, and in any case it is still implausible to project a Pham/Duran platoon to be better than Verdugo.
I dunno what's going on in this conversation, but Verdugo is an above average hitter - 107 wRC+ this season, same as last season. He's very consistently been a 2 WAR player over the last several seasons. There's just no case at all for arguing that he's a problem the team needs to solve, unless you have some specific idea for upgrading the outfield that's better than "platoon a couple of marginal guys, one of whom will cost free agent money."
If you can subtract Verdugo, you can add somewhere else. I don't think the margin is that much between a Pham/Duran platoon, versus Verdugo. 1 WAR difference and that's if Duran doesn't break out. The Sox need a bunch of answers at multiple positions. I don't think they're very well setup in 2023. I would just like to sell on Verdugo with the hopes of cashing in his last 2 controllable years. You are not going to be able to effectively replace Verdugos 2 WAR for the 6 mil he's going to get in arbitration unless Bloom strikes gold. If Verdugo alone can get you 2 WAR for 6 mil how is it a better allocation of resources to sign Pham for the same price if not more and platoon him with Duran? That's 2 players who effectively will make more than Verdugo who maybe can get you to 2 WAR which honestly isn't a good bet.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 10, 2022 11:23:23 GMT -5
That is a different statement from the statement I bolded, and in any case it is still implausible to project a Pham/Duran platoon to be better than Verdugo.
I dunno what's going on in this conversation, but Verdugo is an above average hitter - 107 wRC+ this season, same as last season. He's very consistently been a 2 WAR player over the last several seasons. There's just no case at all for arguing that he's a problem the team needs to solve, unless you have some specific idea for upgrading the outfield that's better than "platoon a couple of marginal guys, one of whom will cost free agent money."
If you can subtract Verdugo, you can add somewhere else. “A boat is a boat, but a mystery box could be anything. It could even be a boat!”
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:25:33 GMT -5
If you can subtract Verdugo, you can add somewhere else. I don't think the margin is that much between a Pham/Duran platoon, versus Verdugo. 1 WAR difference and that's if Duran doesn't break out. The Sox need a bunch of answers at multiple positions. I don't think they're very well setup in 2023. I would just like to sell on Verdugo with the hopes of cashing in his last 2 controllable years. You are not going to be able to effectively replace Verdugos 2 WAR for the 6 mil he's going to get in arbitration unless Bloom strikes gold. If Verdugo alone can get you 2 WAR for 6 mil how is it a better allocation of resources to sign Pham for the same price if not more and platoon him with Duran? That's 2 players who effectively will make more than Verdugo who maybe can get you to 2 WAR which honestly isn't a good bet. I'm hoping for a Benintendi trade with Verdugo, to be honest. Verdugo has plateau'd which is fine I guess, but I'm kind of wanting more.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2022 11:32:44 GMT -5
I would think fans of the team whose best position players produced over the last five years are Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran should find it easy to appreciate the scarce value of a nice 2 WAR player. The five years prior to that they produced JBJ, Xander, Devers, Benintendi, Vazquez. Look, I'm not saying Verdugo isn't worth anything. What I'm saying is a LF who's worth 2 WAR is not hard to replace versus other positions. I suppose what you have going for you is that Bloom has done exactly this the last two seasons (with mixed results) - first with Benintendi, then Renfroe. The Pham/Duran suggestion just doesn't hold water, though. Duran has hit .218/.269/.355 in his career with atrocious defense, and - fun fact! - is only 3 months younger than Verdugo. Pham will be 35 and is clearly on the decline (and his defense has also looked pretty terrible).
But might Bloom repeat himself and trade Verdugo for prospects while adding a Renfroeian free agent? My guess is no, in part because Verdugo seems like a great clubhouse guy, plus the clutch factor mentioned above. But I suppose it's not impossible.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 11:33:30 GMT -5
You are not going to be able to effectively replace Verdugos 2 WAR for the 6 mil he's going to get in arbitration unless Bloom strikes gold. If Verdugo alone can get you 2 WAR for 6 mil how is it a better allocation of resources to sign Pham for the same price if not more and platoon him with Duran? That's 2 players who effectively will make more than Verdugo who maybe can get you to 2 WAR which honestly isn't a good bet. I'm hoping for a Benintendi trade with Verdugo, to be honest. Verdugo has plateau'd which is fine I guess, but I'm kind of wanting more. To each their own I guess but I'm personally not clamoring to trade Verdugo for a depth starter, a mediocre at best OF and two lotto tickets.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:36:58 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a Benintendi trade with Verdugo, to be honest. Verdugo has plateau'd which is fine I guess, but I'm kind of wanting more. To each their own I guess but I'm personally not clamoring to trade Verdugo for a depth starter, a mediocre at best OF and two lotto tickets. Yeah, got to get a better package than that. The good thing is Verdugo has more value than Benintendi did in 2020 when he was traded. So you probably get more. I still think trading Benintendi was a good concept, but I just think they whiffed on their evaluation on Winkowski.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 11:43:07 GMT -5
To each their own I guess but I'm personally not clamoring to trade Verdugo for a depth starter, a mediocre at best OF and two lotto tickets. Yeah, got to get a better package than that. The good thing is Verdugo has more value than Benintendi did in 2020 when he was traded. So you probably get more. I still think trading Benintendi was a good concept, but I just think they whiffed on their evaluation on Winkowski. I'm not completely against the idea of dealing Verdugo but if they do it needs to be for a major leaguer that fills a different hole as they have enough holes without opening another one in LF. I'd also think it pretty unlikely Bloom deal Verdugo for prospects as I'm not going to say he's on the hot seat necessarily but it's gotta be getting warm.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 10, 2022 11:50:35 GMT -5
Yeah, got to get a better package than that. The good thing is Verdugo has more value than Benintendi did in 2020 when he was traded. So you probably get more. I still think trading Benintendi was a good concept, but I just think they whiffed on their evaluation on Winkowski. I'm not completely against the idea of dealing Verdugo but if they do it needs to be for a major leaguer that fills a different hole as they have enough holes without opening another one in LF. I'd also think it pretty unlikely Bloom deal Verdugo for prospects as I'm not going to say he's on the hot seat necessarily but it's gotta be getting warm. Well, when you put it that way. The Sox aren't in a great place, if Bloom is making decisions to save his job. That's never a great place to be in. Kind of a desperate situation. You could be right, but I hope the Red Sox make the best moves to win at some point. Okay you punted in 2020, 2022, and 2023, but in 2024 you have the next crop of prospects on the horizon. The division is weaker, and you have money kind of thing is a better place to be in.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 12:01:03 GMT -5
I'm not completely against the idea of dealing Verdugo but if they do it needs to be for a major leaguer that fills a different hole as they have enough holes without opening another one in LF. I'd also think it pretty unlikely Bloom deal Verdugo for prospects as I'm not going to say he's on the hot seat necessarily but it's gotta be getting warm. Well, when you put it that way. The Sox aren't in a great place, if Bloom is making decisions to save his job. That's never a great place to be in. Kind of a desperate situation. You could be right, but I hope the Red Sox make the best moves to win at some point. Okay you punted in 2020, 2022, and 2023, but in 2024 you have the next crop of prospects on the horizon. The division is weaker, and you have money kind of thing is a better place to be in. Well what is "some point" though? I don't think Verdugo is bringing back some package of top 100 prospects or anything. I agree that I don't want Bloom making moves to save his job out of desperation. I want him to overall stick to his plan since they hired him for a reason. I'm sure he outlined his plan to the ownership which they obviously agreed on. Also I very much disagree the division will be weaker in 2024. The orioles should be very much improved by then. The jays aren't going anywhere. The yankees are the yankees, they have some studs down in the minors from what I read. The Rays are probably due for a down turn at some point but somehow someway they have managed to churn out good teams so can never count them out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 10, 2022 12:10:46 GMT -5
The Verdugo talk reminds me so much of the Mike Greenwell debate from 30 years ago.
I get the disappointment with Verdugo. I think there was a hope of him being a young Mike Greenwell, before his injuries, putting up a season or two near Mike Greenwell's 1987 and 1988 seasons.
With Greenwell, after his injuries, there were questions about lack of power and patience at the plate, and questionable defense.
With Verdugo, his defense isnt good enough that you feel totally comfortable with him in RF at Fenway and you always hope that the power jumps to 20 HRs per season, but when he tries for power you get a million grounders to 2b. Like Greenwell, his baserunning can be kamikaze.
Like Greenwell, you know he can hit, and perhaps Verdugo benefits from the 2023 rule changes.
So you get a slightly above average regular who you are left hoping for more and not really getting it.
I think he can be tradeable but if you screw up...then you open up a real hole.
I wouldnt cast Verdugo aside for a Duran/Pham combo.
Frankly I think Duran is a liability in the OF no matter where you put him and his hit tool has been very disappointing.
Pham is a lousy LF who doesnt really hit but he can draw walks and hit with some power. If the Sox aspire to be more than mediocre they need to do better.
I like the idea of Haniger although you'd probably need to keep Verdugo in RF and play Haniger in LF.
I do think Verdugo might benefit a good deal from the 2023 rule changes and in his favor, his hit tool has served him well against better pitching in the postseason.
They have much bigger issues to deal with than Verdugo.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,637
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Post by cdj on Sept 10, 2022 12:20:34 GMT -5
I’m just in awe that people are still giving the time of day to somebody who said Verdugo has no arm. Clearly they don’t know ball.
0 tool Doogie at it again with another couple hits and an outfield assist. The march to .300 carries on
H8ers gonna h8
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 10, 2022 12:42:17 GMT -5
I would think fans of the team whose best position players produced over the last five years are Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran should find it easy to appreciate the scarce value of a nice 2 WAR player. The five years prior to that they produced JBJ, Xander, Devers, Benintendi, Vazquez. Look, I'm not saying Verdugo isn't worth anything. What I'm saying is a LF who's worth 2 WAR is not hard to replace versus other positions. I am not for getting rid of Verdugo unless it somehow provides organizational surplus in other areas. He is good complementary baseball player that has shown a flair for the dramatic. Good clubs have these players. However the bold is a completely legitimate point that will likely not be acknowledged by the Verdugo Squad. The money next year is not a big issue, as has been said many times
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