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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 29, 2022 11:15:49 GMT -5
God loves you too, even though you are a disbeliever…. I believe in nothing, Lebowski. Lol, I already knew that….
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2022 12:01:39 GMT -5
Very strongly in favor of adopting this term.
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Post by jmei on Nov 29, 2022 15:14:52 GMT -5
The most common flaw in most offseason discussions is thinking that last year’s win/loss record is the best starting point for projecting next season’s performance. Anchoring to some sort of true talent measure is a more useful heuristic.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Nov 29, 2022 15:55:05 GMT -5
Most are looking for something to talk about because it is so dead for the most part right now. we are looking for some excitement to keep us going for the time when things start actually happen. I love the deals the Sox have made on the periphery. Overall very boring. Hey Manfred! give us something to talk about!! Not the manfred here I must make it cjear.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2022 0:56:49 GMT -5
The most common flaw in most offseason discussions is thinking that last year’s win/loss record is the best starting point for projecting next season’s performance. Anchoring to some sort of true talent measure is a more useful heuristic. Also the fact that with the expanded playoffs you just need to get in and anything can happen. See SD and PHI. and how “successful” the dodgers and NYY seasons were that ended without even making the WS. How would you have liked to be a dodger fan this year and get booted early in the playoffs after winning 100+ games.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 30, 2022 7:57:12 GMT -5
The most common flaw in most offseason discussions is thinking that last year’s win/loss record is the best starting point for projecting next season’s performance. Anchoring to some sort of true talent measure is a more useful heuristic. Also the fact that with the expanded playoffs you just need to get in and anything can happen. See SD and PHI. and how “successful” the dodgers and NYY seasons were that ended without even making the WS. How would you have liked to be a dodger fan this year and get booted early in the playoffs after winning 100+ games. Last years record doesn't matter except to use as a barometer of what should be the absolute floor for the 2023 Red Sox. They'll probably be better this year, but if you look at the rosters in the division, they don't really stack up head and shoulders over anyone and depending on how you view Baltimores young talent they might be the worst team in the division currently. I think having a full year of Bello and some of the young guys should help. Maybe they're penciling Rafaela in for opening day? Would be risky. Maybe Conforto as a buy low?
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Post by trajanacc on Nov 30, 2022 12:12:22 GMT -5
The most common flaw in most offseason discussions is thinking that last year’s win/loss record is the best starting point for projecting next season’s performance. Anchoring to some sort of true talent measure is a more useful heuristic. I'd say it is the most common flaw in most sports analysis offered by fans or even "pro" analysts. It's amazing how most people seem to know that recency bias is a thing, and nonetheless often fall victim to it. Next time you watch a football game, count how many times they say momentum.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2022 18:35:50 GMT -5
I think it's reasonable to use last years record and look at 2 indicators.
I look at their pythagorean record based on runs scored/runs allowed to see if they're lucky or unlucky.
Last year's Red Sox finished 78-84 and had a pythagorean record of 78-84 so I'd say they got the record of what you'd expect them to get.
I also look at 2nd half performance. Was the arrow pointing up or pointing down as the season wore on?
The 2015 team had the same record and finished last too but had a strong 2nd half indicating improvement and that's what happened in 2016.
Last years team flopped toward the end and can't even use the excuse of "our team got stripped at the deadline"
I look at injuries as in did they have a lot of injuries from players who don't have an extensive track record of injuries?
Then you look at what's coming up from the minors.
And that's where I base my starting point before the winter transaction begin.
At this point the Sox are basically a 75 - 82 win team at the moment. YMMV on that...then we'll see what Bloom does.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 24, 2023 22:31:43 GMT -5
I wonder what Zips projects the W/L record looks like with all the recent changes. Going up.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 16, 2023 7:55:37 GMT -5
Fangraphs now has preseason ZiPS projections up for everyone. Here is where the Red Sox are heading into ST:
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Ignoring the playing time/depth chart projections which are meaningless...I actually really like this team. The talent is there to be a top 5 team in baseball. Tons and tons of question marks for sure, which I don't need to point out. But this can be a really, really good team if things break right. There are a lot of different things you can pick apart with those projections above, but I if I am being honest this is a better outlook than I thought we would be after last year. Feeling pretty good.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 16, 2023 8:19:16 GMT -5
I'm no expert on ZiPS projections but how is Rafaella getting more PA's more HR's, more Runs scored and more RBI's than Casas?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 16, 2023 8:33:30 GMT -5
I'm no expert on ZiPS projections but how is Rafaella getting more PA's more HR's, more Runs scored and more RBI's than Casas? > Ignoring the playing time/depth chart projections which are meaningless...
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 16, 2023 10:12:10 GMT -5
I'm no expert on ZiPS projections but how is Rafaella getting more PA's more HR's, more Runs scored and more RBI's than Casas? > Ignoring the playing time/depth chart projections which are meaningless...But they do know Story is hurt, right? The Yoshida and Turner projections strike me as optimistic. If Yoshida's defense puts him in negative dWAR territory, he'll have to hit a lot to get to 3.7 total WAR. Turner put up a 123 wRC+ last year and turned 38 in November. I wouldn't expect his performance to bump up at that age.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 16, 2023 10:36:17 GMT -5
> Ignoring the playing time/depth chart projections which are meaningless...But they do know Story is hurt, right? The Yoshida and Turner projections strike me as optimistic. If Yoshida's defense puts him in negative dWAR territory, he'll have to hit a lot to get to 3.7 total WAR. Turner put up a 123 wRC+ last year and turned 38 in November. I wouldn't expect his performance to bump up at that age. Probably putting additional weight on the second half of his season in which he was tearing the cover off the ball
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 16, 2023 11:15:43 GMT -5
> Ignoring the playing time/depth chart projections which are meaningless...But they do know Story is hurt, right? ZiPS purposely does not know Story is hurt. Dan Szymborski says he'd rather people know that ZiPS has no idea about depth charts and injury status, and then be able to adjust on their own, than have to guess exactly which information he is putting in and which he is neglecting.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 16, 2023 11:16:53 GMT -5
> Ignoring the playing time/depth chart projections which are meaningless... But they do know Story is hurt, right?The Yoshida and Turner projections strike me as optimistic. If Yoshida's defense puts him in negative dWAR territory, he'll have to hit a lot to get to 3.7 total WAR. Turner put up a 123 wRC+ last year and turned 38 in November. I wouldn't expect his performance to bump up at that age. No it doesn't. Normally ZiPS doesn't spend too much time on allocating playing time/forecasting injury, it's just looking at a players career and spitting out a forecast. If you are interested in more accurate playing time you can look at the ZiPS depth chart projections, which uses Fangraphs depth chart predictions to get a better picture of playing time. Story's injury shows up there: www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zipsdc&lg=&team=3
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Post by seamus on Feb 16, 2023 11:29:23 GMT -5
The playing time projections are silly, so I just focus on the rate numbers. They really all seem like reasonable outcomes -- even Yoshida's amazing .305/.372/.489 line and 137 wRC+ are fully warranted given what a monster he was in Japan (I mean, I'm honestly not sure how much better a hitter could do without using an aluminum bat). It's certainly possible that he'll flop, but I think expecting him to flop is actually a bigger, more irrational leap than thinking he'll be an All-Star caliber hitter.
I'm greatly comforted by the fact that the only below average hitters are still at least average for their position and positive defensive contributors. There isn't really a weakness in the lineup (even SS is fine as long as you're not comparing to a baseline of Xander Bogaerts) and decent flexibility to cover normal injuries, and that's without seriously factoring in the very real breakout potential for guys like Casas and Verdugo. Similar story for the pitching - they don't need a huge breakout to be solid, have enough depth to cover normal injuries, and have at least five starters with All-Star upside and a bullpen that's a good mix of guys with strong track records and interesting stuff.
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