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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 16, 2014 21:31:35 GMT -5
You say that you're not implying anything, and then in the very next paragraph you say that it's "quite a bit" (and mention earlier that it's not "a tiny little sample"). If you think that's enough of a sample to start drawing some very tentative conclusions, just say that and defend it; there's no need to pretend that that's not what you were thinking. Coyle is hitting fewer home runs this year, but his extra-base hit rate is pretty similar (even a bit higher) than years past. Last year, he hit extra-base hits in 10.7% of his PAs in Salem, and this year, it's 11.5% of his PAs in Portland. It just so happens that more of those extra-base hits are going for doubles than for home runs this year. He already has three more doubles in 2014 than he did all of last year in Salem, even though he's only had a little more than half the playing time this year. The improved average is probably bound to regress, though. A .444 BABIP usually does, and Coyle's line drive rate this year is not even crazy-high. However, his strikeout rate has declined this year-- it's at 23% this year in Portland, compared to 29% last year in Salem (you calculated this wrong-- divide by PAs, not ABs). Coyle needs to maintain this new strikeout rate, but if he does, I agree that he's a pretty interesting prospect (I've discussed him previously here). Still quite a bit behind Cecchini, but interesting nonetheless. At no point did I draw any conclusions. That is completely in your head. I'm saying the number of AB is not completely insignificant. It's an indicator of something having POSSIBLY changed in his approach or something having maybe been changed somewhere which is enabling him to put up much better numbers this year. One would think that maybe the reduced strikeout rate and fewer HR MIGHT INDICATE a change of approach, which is what I asked about. I sincerely asked if anyone was seeing a change of approach. It could be just luck, or mainly luck, but I would think it possible at that sample size to be a change in approach or something similar to that. It could be he's just healthy this year, or overall getting more AB while healthy. It could be he tried to play through injuries too much earlier. Who knows. That's why I asked. They originally drafted Coyle highr than Cechinni. Advanced him quicker at first in the minors ( 1st to Greenville if I remember correctly ). He is clearly a better defender. Coyle has more pop which is so hard to obtain and Cechinni looks like he may well be on his way to Lars Andersonville. I don't think so but heh, I'm concerned when there is that level of pop at this level. If he can't field well and he starts hitting for a lower average at advanced levels he better have some pop. I'm thinking he is adjusting but lots of players plateau and never get over the hump to the majors. I'm hoping he turns it around. I projected Cechinni to be our top prospect at this point in the discussions last year. I'm a huge fan, but I am concerned. I'm borderline at this point thinking Coyle is maybe the better prospect. Coyle may well also struggle in AAA but at least he drives the ball already. And is a better defender. I've always thought they were closer in ability than we were considering them. That's ok. Colye is getting his due this year and hopefully both of them are studs.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 17, 2014 10:40:49 GMT -5
Something that caught my eye, since the start of 2012, Coyle is 37 for 39 in SB attempts (95%), and overall 57 of 65 (88%) in his MiLB career. I hope Coyle can keep up his solid play, and stay healthy, he has an exciting skill set. He has flaws like most prospects do, but I like him a lot.
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Post by suttree on Jun 17, 2014 10:57:13 GMT -5
After watching Cecchini at third I'm not particularly confident he can stay there. Questionable defense, lack of power, and a hit tool that has been less and less impressive as he moves up. It seems like the book on him was he can do this one thing very well and maybe the rest will work itself out. I'm not completely on the Coyle bandwagon yet but I just don't see where Cecchini fits into the Red Sox plans.
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Post by oleary25 on Jun 17, 2014 12:00:24 GMT -5
I wasn't sure where to post this but I just read they are promoting Garin Cecchini according to Chris Cortillo of MLB Daily Dish. No word on the corresponding move.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 17, 2014 12:42:20 GMT -5
I wasn't sure where to post this but I just read they are promoting Garin Cecchini according to Chris Cortillo of MLB Daily Dish. No word on the corresponding move. "Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 26m Sounds like Red Sox have Cecchini in Boston in case they need him. Could swap him in for a few days." Could be Workman suspension?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 17, 2014 12:45:10 GMT -5
Workman still uses a place on the 25-man while suspended.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 17, 2014 13:59:26 GMT -5
Workman still uses a place on the 25-man while suspended. Are you sure? According to baseball-almanac and the always-correct Wikipedia, a suspended player can not only be replaced on the 25-man roster, but also the 40-man. The later I would assume is rare because of the length of most suspensions.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jun 17, 2014 14:20:24 GMT -5
Workman still uses a place on the 25-man while suspended. Are you sure? According to baseball-almanac and the always-correct Wikipedia, a suspended player can not only be replaced on the 25-man roster, but also the 40-man. The later I would assume is rare because of the length of most suspensions. I found this on www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3506An MLB player on the Suspended List counts against both his club's Active List (25-man roster) and Reserve List (40-man roster), while a minor league player on the Suspended List counts against his club's Reserve List but does not count against his club's Active List. (A player on an MLB 40-man roster who is placed on the Suspended List while on Optional Assignment to the minors does not count against his club's MLB 25-man roster or the minor league club's Active List).
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2014 14:25:53 GMT -5
Sizemore DFA per Speier.
That is the roster move.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 17, 2014 14:33:59 GMT -5
Are you sure? According to baseball-almanac and the always-correct Wikipedia, a suspended player can not only be replaced on the 25-man roster, but also the 40-man. The later I would assume is rare because of the length of most suspensions. I found this on www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3506An MLB player on the Suspended List counts against both his club's Active List (25-man roster) and Reserve List (40-man roster), while a minor league player on the Suspended List counts against his club's Reserve List but does not count against his club's Active List. (A player on an MLB 40-man roster who is placed on the Suspended List while on Optional Assignment to the minors does not count against his club's MLB 25-man roster or the minor league club's Active List). Does that mean Braun took a spot on the 25-man for the time he was suspended?
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Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2014 14:40:46 GMT -5
No-- players suspended for PEDs are put on the restricted list, while players suspended for on-field incidents get put on the suspended list.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 17, 2014 15:43:30 GMT -5
Cecchini is not hitting for much of an average at AAA, shows little power, and has an increased strike out rate- twice as many ks as bb. Pawtucket has seen a lot of down offensive performances so far this season, while Portland has seen something of the reverse. Sometimes that just happens, but it does make you wonder. At this stage I'm a little pessimistic on Cecchini ever actually developing power. It's not just that he never really started hitting homers: he's stopped even getting extra base hits, his ISO at this stage is 0.66, which is pathetic for a corner infielder or outfielder, especially if they project to be average at best with the glove. To my understanding, Pawtucket is a much friendlier environment for a hitter than Portland, at least early in the season when it tops out at 50 degrees in Portland basically, so that's another mark in Coyle's favor. Even assuming that his average/BABIP come back to earth, he's already matched Cecchini's hr output from last season across both levels, and that's in half a season in which he's missed some time already. I think at this stage, it might not be time to give up on Cecchini, but Coyle has significantly more upside to me, primarily because the skills he's lacking, plate discipline being the most important one, can be taught/learned much more easily than you can teach someone to hit the ball out of the ballpark. And after looking at Cecchini's numbers while writing all this, I just got less optimistic on him: his triple slash is .263/.344/.329, with a .338 BABIP, and his walk rate is down 7% from last year, with the k% up something like 5-6%. I still hope he's a lefty youkilis, but the reality might well be more like a lefty alex hassan
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 17, 2014 15:49:11 GMT -5
Just a quick addition to that: Coyle's not going to keep that .443 BABIP as he moves up, but his power has been consistent since turning pro, and if he puts up a league average BABIP while retaining most of his power, is a line like .270/.330/.450 an unreasonable idea? Maybe that's on the high side, but at this stage, I'd think that's probably better than what we could really expect from Cecchini
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Post by Guidas on Jun 22, 2014 12:58:31 GMT -5
So when do we start to think Coyle is as "real" as Betts or Cecchini? Cause I'm at the point where I think this guy is real until he shows me for an analogous point in the future that he's not. In other words, I'm buying into this prospect's "progression." Is he a .416 OBP guy at the next two levels? Not likely. But I could see .350+ with his current approach and plate coverage - until he shows me he can't hit the breaking stuff.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 6, 2018 7:23:27 GMT -5
Bumped because what an amazing thread 4 years later.
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pd
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Post by pd on Jun 6, 2018 13:40:12 GMT -5
I go with the Italian.
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