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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 28, 2022 17:53:29 GMT -5
Never too early to start thinking about the Rule 5 draft. There's some interesting options to be protected in 2023 ( full list). Here are the most interesting options in my opinion: Shane Drohan - likely to get protected. Ended the season in AA. #17 in all minors in strikeouts. Ryan Fernandez - if he stays healthy, he should either get protected or make it to the majors. Was mentioned as a potential pick in 2022. Matthew Lugo - likely to get protected if he can show he can handle AA pitching. Wikelman Gonzalez - left unprotected last year, but hopefully a full season in Greenville (and a late season call up to Portland) will put him in position to be protected. Eddinson Paulino - if he has a good year at Greenville, I could see him getting protected. Still a chance he would go unselected given he's still far away from the majors. Brainer Bonaci - see above for Paulino, but a little bit less certain here. Luis Perales - true wildcard. Has the talent to be protected and I imagine he will be, but he has barely pitched and just needs to have a healthy season and build innings. Would a team take a chance on him in a bullpen given his track record? Koss and Zeferjahn could also be options. Did I miss anyone? |
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 28, 2022 18:19:18 GMT -5
I think you got the main ones. There's also a big group of A-Ball pitchers outside the top 20 with some talent that will be eligible, probably the most successful one or two will be part of the conversation.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 29, 2023 23:32:21 GMT -5
This would be my very, very early list to keep an eye on for Rule 5 2023; however, there may only be three or four spots open in November 2023 (unlike 2022). The front runners for the open spots would obviously be the first four listed (and the list will change based on performance as 2023 unfolds). The current 40-man cast most likely occupying AAA (Walter, Crawford, Mata, Murphy,…. should mean that none of the players listed below will see any time at the MLB level in 2023.
Eddinson Paulino
Luis Perales
Brainer Bonaci
Wikelman Gonzalez
Matthew Lugo
Shane Drohan
Ryan Fernandez
There are, give or take, seven contracts that will expire at 2023’s end. IMO, the majority will be filled through major leagues FA signings or MILB free agents with MLB experience, putting the Rule 5 spots at a premium, meaning this group of Rule 5 players to really shine or be left unprotected.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 30, 2023 2:36:41 GMT -5
Out of that list I would say Fernandez is the only one with any remote chance of seeing big league time. If he hits the ground running and get to AAA by June he could be up by the fall. FB up to 99, low 90’s cutter. Throws strikes. Gonna be 25. I could see him putting it all together provided health
I was honestly surprised a team out there didn’t pluck him in this years rule 5
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 30, 2023 7:36:01 GMT -5
Out of that list I would say Fernandez is the only one with any remote chance of seeing big league time. If he hits the ground running and get to AAA by June he could be up by the fall. FB up to 99, low 90’s cutter. Throws strikes. Gonna be 25. I could see him putting it all together provided health I was honestly surprised a team out there didn’t pluck him in this years rule 5 If some of the AAA guys already on the 40-man step up and become MLB contributors, then they can replace some of the temporary players on one year contracts, there will be more room for Rule 5 adds. Worcester has the possibility of being very good also as all the MILB guys with MLB experience seem like a pretty talented group fight to get to the MLB. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 30, 2023 8:05:11 GMT -5
I should clarify my statement since It’s a little unclear- see big league time THIS SEASON. I do think some of the guys on that list make the show eventually
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2023 22:06:01 GMT -5
I'm always happy to play too early Rule 5 list.
Will already be on the 40-man:
Ryan Fernandez
Probably:
Shane Drohan
Wikelman Gonzalez
Matthew Lugo
Eddinson Paulino
Luis Perales
Borderline:
Brainer Bonaci
Christian Koss
Stephen Scott if he hits in Portland and can catch a little
Ryan Zeferjahn
Guys to watch coming back from TJS:
Bradley Blalock
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
Likely too young, but we'll wonder:
Allan Castro
Nathanael Cruz
Feels like a crowded year
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 31, 2023 0:22:03 GMT -5
I'm always happy to play too early Rule 5 list. Will already be on the 40-man: Ryan Fernandez Probably: Shane Drohan Wikelman Gonzalez Matthew Lugo Eddinson Paulino Luis Perales Borderline: Brainer Bonaci Christian Koss Stephen Scott if he hits in Portland and can catch a little Ryan Zeferjahn Guys to watch coming back from TJS: Bradley Blalock Jeremy Wu-Yelland Likely too young, but we'll wonder: Allan Castro Nathanael Cruz Feels like a crowded year Perales is already eligible?! |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 31, 2023 7:50:05 GMT -5
I'm always happy to play too early Rule 5 list. Will already be on the 40-man: Ryan Fernandez Probably: Shane Drohan Wikelman Gonzalez Matthew Lugo Eddinson Paulino Luis Perales Borderline: Brainer Bonaci Christian Koss Stephen Scott if he hits in Portland and can catch a little Ryan Zeferjahn Guys to watch coming back from TJS: Bradley Blalock Jeremy Wu-Yelland Likely too young, but we'll wonder: Allan Castro Nathanael Cruz Feels like a crowded year Perales is already eligible?! Seems a good time to remind everyone the list is available here at the site. www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htm |
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 3, 2023 13:07:37 GMT -5
May update:
Protect:
Shane Drohan
Probably protect:
Matthew Lugo
Ryan Fernandez
Wait and see:
Wikelman Gonzalez
Eddinson Paulino
Luis Perales
Others of note:
Angel Bastardo
Bradley Blalock
Brainer Bonaci
Juan Daniel Encarnación
Christian Koss
Chih-Jung Liu
Ryan Miller
Stephen Scott
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
Ryan Zeferjahn
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Post by James Dunne on May 5, 2023 17:22:07 GMT -5
Man, that summer 2019 International class that didn't actually start playing until 2021 is all eligible now. I know every team is in the same boat with that, but still kinda rough. Perales was mentioned, but at least Perales has been in the consciousness for awhile. But Allen Castro? He's definitely still a new guy in my headspace.
If Fernandez doesn't get protected then something went wrong. He's barely inside the top 30 because the history of success just isn't that long, but he should be in Triple-A by the end of next month, he absolutely has the kind of stuff you can develop in the back of an MLB bullpen even if the results aren't there, and there are no concerns about short-circuiting any starter development.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 11, 2023 17:35:59 GMT -5
Lock:
Drohan
Probably:
Perales
Fernandez
Bastardo
Gonzalez
Nonzero chance:
Brainer
Paulino
Scott
Zefarjahn
Blalock
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 21, 2023 13:40:28 GMT -5
I wonder if Drohan pitching so poorly at Worcester changes the likelihood that he is protected…? What changes would you make considering how the Rule 5 eligible players have played thus far in the 2023 season? |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2023 13:48:29 GMT -5
I wonder if Drohan pitching so poorly at Worcester changes the likelihood that he is protected…? What changes would you make considering how the Rule 5 eligible players have played thus far in the 2023 season? I would think Drohan would get picked in the rule 5 even with his struggles. He's still got upside and would seemingly be pretty easy for a team to carry for a season as a lefty reliever. I think I'd protect him if I'm the sox. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 21, 2023 14:01:25 GMT -5
They can just move him to the pen and now you're probably feeling good about carrying him on the 40 as a guy that starts the year as an up and down reliever. That they're likely to keep him starting a while longer means he's more valuable than that.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 21, 2023 14:29:48 GMT -5
Drohan would go 1:1 if left unprotected.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2023 14:42:13 GMT -5
Drohan, Wikelman, Perales, Blalock, Bastardo, Liu, Fernandez and even Juan Daniel Encarnacion is a pretty silly number of pitchers with a non-zero chance of getting picked in the draft. Bastardo and Liu might seem like stretches but they're both in the top 1-2 percentile of swinging strike % this year and a team could be enticed to throw them in their bullpen. My guess is they maybe protect three (with Drohan, Wikelman, and Perales being the most likely) of those guys and leave us to sweat out the others.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2023 14:49:01 GMT -5
Drohan, Wikelman, Perales, Blalock, Bastardo, Liu, Fernandez and even Juan Daniel Encarnacion is a pretty silly number of pitchers with a non-zero chance of getting picked in the draft. Bastardo and Liu might seem like stretches but they're both in the top 1-2 percentile of swinging strike % this year and a team could be enticed to throw them in their bullpen. My guess is they maybe protect three (with Drohan, Wikelman, and Perales being the most likely) of those guys and leave us to sweat out the others. I probably have a higher estimation of Liu’s ability to stick in an MLB bullpen right now than I did with Ward at this time last year (though Ward more likely to start IMO), so yeah don’t think it’d be surprising at all if he was picked. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2023 15:11:46 GMT -5
My current guess:
Protected:
Perales
Drohan
Wikelman
Fernandez
Tough call:
Bonaci
Left eligible, possibly picked:
Bastardo
Blalock
Liu
Politi (just realized he was missing on the Rule 5 page - sorry about that)
Zeferjahn
Left eligible, probably not picked but worth mentioning:
Castro
J. Encarnacion
Gambrell
Jimenez
Lugo
Paulino
Scott
Shugart
Van Belle
This is almost certainly an area they deal from, BTW. Bonaci in particular would be an interesting trade chip.
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Post by soxin8 on Jul 22, 2023 8:49:20 GMT -5
After Angel's performance last night, my top 4 would be
Perales
Wikelman
Bastardo
Bonaci
Fernandez and Liu are probably my next two. I thought it was interesting that Keith Law's latest top prospects list had Bonaci in his top 80. If the Red Sox feel the same way, maybe Yorke will be offered in trade.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2023 8:55:39 GMT -5
Perales, wilkeman, bastardo and drohan all seem like sure things to get selected if left unprotected. Certainly drohan is anyway but the other have enough pure stuff that I could easily see a team taking them and carrying them in the pen for a year.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 22, 2023 9:21:27 GMT -5
Fernandez is pretty safe unless he has a bad finish to the season. You need a bunch of relievers on the 40 for the major league team to function. Kenley, Martin, Schreiber, Bernandino, Winck, Murphy and Walter are 7. Need more than that, and we don't really have anyone else you would care about.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 22, 2023 10:17:40 GMT -5
Fernandez is pretty safe unless he has a bad finish to the season. You need a bunch of relievers on the 40 for the major league team to function. Kenley, Martin, Schreiber, Bernandino, Winck, Murphy and Walter are 7. Need more than that, and we don't really have anyone else you would care about. Fernandez has an outside shot to get called up this year. |
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 12, 2023 10:01:15 GMT -5
August 11:
1)Protected:
Perales
Drohan
Wikelman
Fernandez
2)Maybe - depending on the balance of season
Bonaci
Bastardo
Zeferjahn
Castro
J. Encarnacion
Gambrell
Paulino
Scott
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Post by waiverClaim on Aug 12, 2023 13:04:02 GMT -5
Song will make a strong bid to be on that list
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