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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by incandenza on Jan 19, 2023 13:13:18 GMT -5
In theory - in theory - this is a roster where everyone ought to at least produce positive WAR; no black holes like JBJ or Franchy or Danny Santana or Duran to act as WAR killers. But I was burned making that prediction before 2021. (Can't believe I thought Marwin Gonzalez would be non-terrible...)
It's easy to see 1.5-2 WAR performances at every position other than 3B, where they should get 4-5. That could get them to 19-20 positional WAR. If they could get the same out of the pitching (a moderately big 'if' but not at all crazy) then they're likely a playoff team.
appreciate the positivity of this post, but really how many times has this happened in the history of baseball. Also if just one guy doesn't meet expectation, and say goes -.5 that subtracts 2WAR from your 19-20 metric, or about 10% of the total, which is a more likely scenario. I don't personally think WAR should be used as a predictive stat. There are too many performance / injury variables. If we want to achieve higher WAR, and mitigate other players underperformance, then the solution is commonly known...have superstars on your roster. As for Duvall, there is a lot of hope, that's for sure. Hell, I'll go ahead and guarantee that they don't get exactly 1.5-2 WAR at every position other than 3B. I'm just saying those would be reasonable projections. But why do you mention only the possibility of underperformances? Obviously overperformances can happen as well. Yoshida or Casas, in particular, might be better than that. Kiké, too, if he regains his 2021 form. Verdugo could finally reach his potential and have a 3-4 WAR season. Even Story could come back and combine with Arroyo or whomever to give above average production at 2B.
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Post by patford on Jan 19, 2023 13:34:48 GMT -5
appreciate the positivity of this post, but really how many times has this happened in the history of baseball. Also if just one guy doesn't meet expectation, and say goes -.5 that subtracts 2WAR from your 19-20 metric, or about 10% of the total, which is a more likely scenario. I don't personally think WAR should be used as a predictive stat. There are too many performance / injury variables. If we want to achieve higher WAR, and mitigate other players underperformance, then the solution is commonly known...have superstars on your roster. As for Duvall, there is a lot of hope, that's for sure. Hell, I'll go ahead and guarantee that they don't get exactly 1.5-2 WAR at every position other than 3B. I'm just saying those would be reasonable projections. But why do you mention only the possibility of underperformances? Obviously overperformances can happen as well. Yoshida or Casas, in particular, might be better than that. Kiké, too, if he regains his 2021 form. Verdugo could finally reach his potential and have a 3-4 WAR season. Even Story could come back and combine with Arroyo or whomever to give above average production at 2B. It's probably the association with Betts but it's something to see the number of people who want to get rid of Verdugo. He hit .289 in 2021 and .280 last year and my eyeball impression is he is one of the better clutch hitters in the lineup. It would be nice if he was hitting 20+ HR and I'd think he has that in him. It's not clear to me but my understanding is he's been somewhat less than fully healthy during the whole of his time in MLB with various core body issues (back, oblique) and that is both a concern and an excuse as he may be another Arroyo or perhaps he has untapped potential which will be unlocked.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 19, 2023 14:02:02 GMT -5
FanGraphs has an interesting piece on Duvall today: link. Gives some real cause for optimism, I think, because there seems to have been more going on last season than just the stuff that gets attributed to luck (e.g., bad BABIP) or a slow start. A dramatic change in contact profile suggests there was at least some conscious effort and reason to hope that some of those gains stick. Maybe he was running hot and that 143 wRC+ in June/July is too much to hope for, but even just a 100 wRC+ is tremendously valuable when paired with solid center field defense. If he can post something like 110 or 120 over 400+ PA? You're looking at the potential steal of the offseason. Thanks for the link. It's a lot to hope for, but not out of the realm of possibility, that the Sox could have 4-5 players with an OPS+ north of 120. That would be Devers, of course, but also could include Casas, Yoshida, Turner and maybe even Duvall (though that would really be better than he's shown in the past). It's a reach, as is the idea that the rotation could produce 3 or 4 10-15 win pitchers. But hey, it's almost spring training so optimism is in order.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 19, 2023 14:27:19 GMT -5
See, now I want Kiké to stay in CF because Duvall is a 4th OF at best and should only be used in match-ups, mop-ups, late-inning (hopefully ahead on the scoreboard) defensive replacement or rest for another player situations. As someone else stated, JBJ has a better OBP and is a better OF. Given where JBJ is in his career, that's a low bar. How can he be a 4th OF at best, when he's been well above that in the past? And not even the far past! Last season he was roughly an average player starting every day until he got hurt.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 19, 2023 14:35:00 GMT -5
appreciate the positivity of this post, but really how many times has this happened in the history of baseball. Also if just one guy doesn't meet expectation, and say goes -.5 that subtracts 2WAR from your 19-20 metric, or about 10% of the total, which is a more likely scenario. I don't personally think WAR should be used as a predictive stat. There are too many performance / injury variables. If we want to achieve higher WAR, and mitigate other players underperformance, then the solution is commonly known...have superstars on your roster. As for Duvall, there is a lot of hope, that's for sure. Hell, I'll go ahead and guarantee that they don't get exactly 1.5-2 WAR at every position other than 3B. I'm just saying those would be reasonable projections. But why do you mention only the possibility of underperformances? Obviously overperformances can happen as well. Yoshida or Casas, in particular, might be better than that. Kiké, too, if he regains his 2021 form. Verdugo could finally reach his potential and have a 3-4 WAR season. Even Story could come back and combine with Arroyo or whomever to give above average production at 2B. Fair question. Because the game's nature lends itself to underperformance, particularly with guys who aren't at the top and and / or guys who are fringy, like a lot of what this roster appears to be. that is why it is good to have some 6-8 WAR guys (or so) to help mitigate that variable.
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Post by jmei on Jan 19, 2023 15:28:25 GMT -5
Because the game's nature lends itself to underperformance, particularly with guys who aren't at the top and and / or guys who are fringy, like a lot of what this roster appears to be. that is why it is good to have some 6-8 WAR guys (or so) to help mitigate that variable. Eh, feels like we need to calibrate expectations somewhat. There were four hitters in all of baseball who averaged 6+ fWAR across 2021-2022 (Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Paul Goldschmidt). There's also been quite a bit of research about whether a stars and scrubs roster or a depth-based roster is a better team-building approach. Here is one representative analysis ( link): I should note that other research has come to the conclusion that either approach works: fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-the-best-way-to-build-a-major-league-baseball-team/
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 19, 2023 20:11:39 GMT -5
I have two questions:
(1) How far back does the really heavy emphasis on defensive shifts go?
(2) Does Duvall's hit chart indicate that he has been a heavily shifted player and someone you can reliably shift on?
Duvall has been around since 2016, which is mostly if not totally in the heavy-shifting era. And he strikes me as a very mechanics based hitter, which suggests he may have been very defensible by shifting. I'm wondering if he could get a decent amount of OBP improvement in the new no-shift environment.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Jan 19, 2023 21:34:56 GMT -5
I have two questions: (1) How far back does the really heavy emphasis on defensive shifts go? (2) Does Duvall's hit chart indicate that he has been a heavily shifted player and someone you can reliably shift on? Duvall has been around since 2016, which is mostly if not totally in the heavy-shifting era. And he strikes me as a very mechanics based hitter, which suggests he may have been very defensible by shifting. I'm wondering if he could get a decent amount of OBP improvement in the new no-shift environment. Duval gets shifted against a lot (65-71% yearly) especially for a righty, but in recent years his wOBA isn’t materially different against the shift. I don’t expect him to benefit much from the shift ban. The Red Sox didn’t have much of an issue vs the shift and didn’t get shifted against much in general since our star players used the whole field.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 19, 2023 22:38:17 GMT -5
I have two questions: (1) How far back does the really heavy emphasis on defensive shifts go? (2) Does Duvall's hit chart indicate that he has been a heavily shifted player and someone you can reliably shift on? Duvall has been around since 2016, which is mostly if not totally in the heavy-shifting era. And he strikes me as a very mechanics based hitter, which suggests he may have been very defensible by shifting. I'm wondering if he could get a decent amount of OBP improvement in the new no-shift environment. Duval gets shifted against a lot (65-71% yearly) especially for a righty, but in recent years his wOBA isn’t materially different against the shift. I don’t expect him to benefit much from the shift ban. The Red Sox didn’t have much of an issue vs the shift and didn’t get shifted against much in general since our star players used the whole field. i see what you did there. LOL.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jan 20, 2023 8:59:50 GMT -5
As much as I'd love to continue hammering in that point, I'm not going to disrespect Adam Duvall by doing that in his thread.
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Post by jmei on Jan 20, 2023 9:03:43 GMT -5
I moved a bunch of general offseason evaluation discussion (which, mea culpa, I started) to the "evaluating the front office" thread.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 20, 2023 16:06:48 GMT -5
See, now I want Kiké to stay in CF because Duvall is a 4th OF at best and should only be used in match-ups, mop-ups, late-inning (hopefully ahead on the scoreboard) defensive replacement or rest for another player situations. As someone else stated, JBJ has a better OBP and is a better OF. Given where JBJ is in his career, that's a low bar. How can he be a 4th OF at best, when he's been well above that in the past? Because he's older now than he was then. I mean, I was 3.9 seconds home to first when I was 18. But I'm older and slower now. Duvall is a senior citizen, or very near it, in terms of modern position player. The data say his best is well behind him. But even going back 5 years, Duval was: 2018 0.6 fWAR, 2019 0.9 fWAR, 2020 0.8 fWAR (60 games), 2021 2.7 fWAR, 2022 0.9. So out than outlier year 2021* he's a sub-1 fWAR player for the last 5 years. That's within the definition of a 4th OF. *we have no idea what he would've done for 162 games in 2020, but the "extrapolate out to 162" is a hollow argument because of the extreme, multivariate outlier year it was with diluted competition and, frankly, bizarre game circumstances; better to throw this year out.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 20, 2023 16:37:15 GMT -5
How can he be a 4th OF at best, when he's been well above that in the past? Because he's older now than he was then. I mean, I was 3.9 seconds home to first when I was 18. But I'm older and slower now. Duvall is a senior citizen, or very near it, in terms of modern position player. The data say his best is well behind him. But even going back 5 years, Duval was: 2018 0.6 fWAR, 2019 0.9 fWAR, 2020 0.8 fWAR (60 games), 2021 2.7 fWAR, 2022 0.9. So out than outlier year 2021* he's a sub-1 fWAR player for the last 5 years. That's within the definition of a 4th OF.*we have no idea what he would've done for 162 games in 2020, but the "extrapolate out to 162" is a hollow argument because of the extreme, multivariate outlier year it was with diluted competition and, frankly, bizarre game circumstances; better to throw this year out. 2022: 0.9 WAR in 86 games but you can't extrapolate to a full season - throw it out 2021: 2.7 WAR but it's an outlier - throw it out 2020: 0.8 WAR in 57 games but it's the covid season - throw it out 2019: 0.9 WAR in 41 games but you can't extrapolate to a full season - throw it out 2018: 0.6 WAR - his true essence as a ballplayer
Do I have this right?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 20, 2023 16:56:35 GMT -5
Because he's older now than he was then. I mean, I was 3.9 seconds home to first when I was 18. But I'm older and slower now. Duvall is a senior citizen, or very near it, in terms of modern position player. The data say his best is well behind him. But even going back 5 years, Duval was: 2018 0.6 fWAR, 2019 0.9 fWAR, 2020 0.8 fWAR (60 games), 2021 2.7 fWAR, 2022 0.9. So out than outlier year 2021* he's a sub-1 fWAR player for the last 5 years. That's within the definition of a 4th OF.*we have no idea what he would've done for 162 games in 2020, but the "extrapolate out to 162" is a hollow argument because of the extreme, multivariate outlier year it was with diluted competition and, frankly, bizarre game circumstances; better to throw this year out. 2022: 0.9 WAR in 86 games but you can't extrapolate to a full season - throw it out 2021: 2.7 WAR but it's an outlier - throw it out 2020: 0.8 WAR in 57 games but it's the covid season - throw it out 2019: 0.9 WAR in 41 games but you can't extrapolate to a full season - throw it out 2018: 0.6 WAR - his true essence as a ballplayer
Do I have this right?
….except it was 5 years ago…Throw it out…lol Guidas would find a way to argue with himself.
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 1, 2023 19:19:09 GMT -5
This guy is Made for Fenway and seems like a great guy and super easy to be a fan favorite. Can we add 2 years and 30 million to that 1/7 and see if he would bite?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Apr 1, 2023 19:40:25 GMT -5
I like the player a lot and I understand your excitement for sure, let’s get out of April before talking about tacking that on though lol
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 2, 2023 10:27:08 GMT -5
Excellent signing so far. One of the bright spots for sure.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Apr 2, 2023 12:19:34 GMT -5
Fangraphs has him worth 3.8M through 2 games.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 2, 2023 12:22:19 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 3, 2023 5:03:27 GMT -5
Fangraphs has him worth 3.8M through 2 games. And it took him three entire games to reach his projected season WAR total, according to Steamer (which FG used for its projected standings).
He leads MLB in fWAR, wOBA, wRC+, and SA.
Win Probability Added? His lead over #2 Yordan Alvavrez (1.21 to 0.78) equals that of Alvarez's over #13 Aaron Judge.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 3, 2023 7:58:35 GMT -5
Fangraphs has him worth 3.8M through 2 games. And it took him three entire games to reach his projected season WAR total, according to Steamer (which FG used for its projected standings).
He leads MLB in fWAR, wOBA, wRC+, and SA.
Win Probability Added? His lead over #2 Yordan Alvavrez (1.21 to 0.78) equals that of Alvarez's over #13 Aaron Judge.
Where are the calls to "Sell High"?
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,014
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Post by mobaz on Apr 3, 2023 8:08:17 GMT -5
Sell High? Sell HIGH??? Duvall makes Mike Trout look like Mike Carp!
Speaking of one year wonders, I completely forgot Carp was pretty good in his full year with the Sox, with a 139 OPS+ in 240 PAs; still, hoping for more Beltre than Carp from Duvall, or at least Cody Ross with Defense. But love the start from Duvall, and can add two Actual Wins to his theoretical WAR so far.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 3, 2023 12:35:50 GMT -5
Fangraphs has him worth 3.8M through 2 games. And it took him three entire games to reach his projected season WAR total, according to Steamer (which FG used for its projected standings). He leads MLB in fWAR, wOBA, wRC+, and SA. Win Probability Added? His lead over #2 Yordan Alvavrez (1.21 to 0.78) equals that of Alvarez's over #13 Aaron Judge.
He, after the first series of the year, leads the league in hits, runs, doubles, triples, home runs, and RBIs.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 3, 2023 18:15:01 GMT -5
I thought he had a player option for the 2nd year?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2023 6:38:20 GMT -5
I thought he had a player option for the 2nd year? He does not.
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