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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by patford on Jan 18, 2023 19:42:05 GMT -5
I'm really liking this signing as a super 4OF. I have a lot of concern if he's the regular CFer. How much does the defense take a hit with Kiké - SS Arroyo - 2B Yoshida - LF Duvall - CF Verdugo - RF I really want to leave Kiké in CF. I would love if they tried Duran at 2B in ST. Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B. My guess is they believe he's beyond hopeless in CF and think it's still possible he might hit.
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Post by patford on Jan 18, 2023 20:03:37 GMT -5
To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong. I hear you, but by this logic I’d prefer trying Wong out there seeing he’s played more 2B in the minors than Duran and would provide added positional flexibility to the roster. Here's what my memory tells me about Duran. He began as a very very fast guy who was a slap hitter. He's a big kid so the size was intriguing. Defense was never in the forefront. A thought to try him in CF to take advantage of his speed emerged just about the time Duran changed his approach and began hitting for power. His hitting remained encouraging; although he was striking out more the power made up for it. Duran also has the "looks the part" thing going for him in the most extreme way possible. Not only is he big he carries himself well just standing around rubbing the barrel of the bat and striding into the box. Unfortunately he was immediately really bad in CF and improved only marginally. I recall just as he was brought up Bloom did a presser and remarked on how many strides Duran had made in CF. At the time I thought that was encouraging but now I think Bloom was looking to trade him and rolling the dice he would hit for a month and not embarrass himself in CF. Instead he was awful. Some of "us" probably think he still might hit and a big part of the problem was being in CF where he quite frankly is comparable to Hanley Ramirez in LF. As his major issue was fly balls maybe he could work out at 2B with the pressure off his mind and his bat might return.
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Post by runner on Jan 18, 2023 20:06:17 GMT -5
Really? One year small sample size Refsnyder? A 4th OF plays more than people realize, add in our CF likely playing some 2B or SS. It's certainly not perfect type crap for building a true title contender. Yet it's a quality move. My point was that he was signed to start… not that it is a bad move. I was saying they are not signing him to be redundant — already having Refsnyder as a bench OF. I kinda agree with the sentiment that I'd rather just start Refsnyder at this point. Duvall is nice as a bench piece. Maybe Fenway can boost his numbers a bit, but that OBP is really a downer.
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Jan 18, 2023 21:46:19 GMT -5
What is Jarren Duran at this point? Even if he’s on the decline, Duvall is a much better option than anyone besides Hernandez in CF. I like this signing. I think it easily could become a good move by Bloom and the FO. Gives them a much needed RH bat to the lineup as well.
OF: Hernandez, Verdugo, Duvall, Yoshida, Refsnyder, Duran
Does Duran have upside to be passable in any OF spot? Someone who knows more, what is your view on Duran. I see him as a mediocre fielder, serious speed but you don’t get the full advantage from it because he struggles to get on base.
I would love to deal him but would understand he doesn’t hold much value right now.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 18, 2023 22:00:56 GMT -5
(Written countless hours ago and and never posted! I do that a lot.)
This is a very interesting gamble. I have more skepticism than usual (the topic of a later post), but I did state within the last week that the M.O. should be upside guys. I strongly suspect that a lot of outs translate to hits in Fenway.
They can afford Joey Wendle to play SS or 2B, platooning with Arroyo. That's a big upgrade relative to cost.
Last man on the bench is a major mystery. That's another post, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2023 22:15:42 GMT -5
Duvall certainly wasn't on my wish list, but given where they are and what they need at this point, his presence makes a lot of sense. They never did replace Renfroe and Duvall kind of does that. He isn't as good offensively as Renfroe was the last two years as his OBP is constantly around .290 rather than .310, but he is supposed to be better defensively and he does have the power to whack 30 plus HRs, which this team does need although I'm not sure how it balances out, whether he's the starting CF or if he shifts over to RF at some point or is more of a #4 OF. Injuries happen so who knows if that gives him more time or if he's one of the guys who gets injured? But depth is important.
So while I'm not over the moon about the move, I'd fine with it. Given their circumstances I would certainly prefer Bloom makes the move than doesn't make the move.
And at this point that makes Kiké a SS.
If they only have 11 - 14 million left and if Andrus is demanding 2 years and/or too much money then I hope they can get Iglesias and a LH reliever for less than 10 million.
I know it's not seen as a priority but right now Josh Taylor, coming off an injury, would be their best lefty out of the pen and who knows if he's back to what he was in 2021 or 2019? I'd feel better with a trusty late inning lefty who can get an occasional righty out. I still have my eyes on Chafin, and Will Smith, but would be interested in taking a chance with Britton or Moore. I think that's the piece that's still missing from their pen. At this point I'd just go with what they have in the rotation. I'm not interested in a Verdugo for Lopez deal.
I just wonder when Bloom finally gets another SS candidate.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 18, 2023 22:16:53 GMT -5
I was mostly responding to @oldfaithful's idea but it's the principle of tossing a guy who's much cheaper, a bit younger, with two years of control, projected to be better this season, and has much higher upside for an older player coming off an injury with a career OBP 45 pts lower. That's the antithesis of what's supposed to be Chaim's entire m.o., after all. If he ditches that to patch a leak on a .500-ish team, it smacks of desperation, which is also the antithesis of what Chaim is supposed to stand for.
As I've said, in the mess that we're already in, I'd much rather see what we've really got in guys like Refsnyder, Duran, Arroyo, and guys coming up like Valdez, Abreu and Hamilton than bring in some middling leftover retreads and still wind up out of the playoffs. This team is no better than 4th in their own division even before the bunting comes out and Adam Duvall or Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias are not going to change that.
It's a bit funny to me that you think this totally unremarkable 1/7 deal for a veteran to help fill a clear need on the roster "smacks of desperation," whereas your approach would be to go into the season with Jarren Duran as the second baseman. I said "IF" he ditches Refsnyder after signing Duvall it smacks of desperation. Sorry for the nuance.
I also said that this is a .500-ish team that is no better than 4th in their division. Do you want to dispute that? If not, then you agree that they are by definition fighting for the 3rd WC spot with BAL and whoever the second best teams in the ALC and ALW are. They were 26-50 vs. the AL East last year and have had a net meh offseason (including injuries), even with the unremarkable Duvall joining the club.
Given the long odds of merely making the WC3, my approach is about upside. Duvall has zero upside. Iglesias has zero upside. Andrus has zero upside. Refsnyder, Duran, and Arroyo are all big leaguers and all have at least a chance of tapping into something that they haven't yet shown if given more playing time. If any of them do, their respective value would increase significantly in a way that they simply wouldn't if left in their same roles.
The only possible value one of the aforementioned seniors could gain (assuming one-year deals, which is the only logical outcome) is if they have a big year and it doesn't help the team contend and we get a middling prospect at the deadline. It's kicking the can down the road for a slim chance at a return. My approach reveals once and for all what we have in three cheap players under 2+ years of team control.
Pretending that you're a contender when you're not is anti-productive self-delusion (how'd that work out at last year's deadline?). You can make the best of it by trying to add value from within or you can fool yourself by filling short-term needs with older players on one-year deals and blocking the paths of your younger players for another year.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,951
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 18, 2023 22:28:08 GMT -5
Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B. My guess is they believe he's beyond hopeless in CF and think it's still possible he might hit. As a CF, he's the closest thing I can remember to Jose Offerman in that his defense is so bad that it's hard to put him in a lineup. (Offie put his defensive horror show on in the IF, of course.) Duran rocks a UZR/150 of 20.5 as a CF in parts of two seasons with the Red Sox. Yikes.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2023 22:31:16 GMT -5
It's a bit funny to me that you think this totally unremarkable 1/7 deal for a veteran to help fill a clear need on the roster "smacks of desperation," whereas your approach would be to go into the season with Jarren Duran as the second baseman. I said "IF" he ditches Refsnyder after signing Duvall it smacks of desperation. Sorry for the nuance. I also said that this is a .500-ish team that is no better than 4th in their division. Do you want to dispute that? If not, then you agree that they are by definition fighting for the 3rd WC spot with BAL and whoever the second best teams in the ALC and ALW are. They were 26-50 vs. the AL East last year and have had a net meh offseason (including injuries), even with the unremarkable Duvall joining the club. Given the long odds of merely making the WC3, my approach is about upside. Duvall has zero upside. Iglesias has zero upside. Andrus has zero upside. Refsnyder, Duran, and Arroyo are all big leaguers and all have at least a chance of tapping into something that they haven't yet shown if given more playing time. If any of them do, their respective value would increase significantly in a way that they simply wouldn't if left in their same roles.
The only possible value one of the aforementioned seniors could gain (assuming one-year deals, which is the only logical outcome) is if they have a big year and it doesn't help the team contend and we get a middling prospect at the deadline. It's kicking the can down the road for a slim chance at a return. My approach reveals once and for all what we have in three cheap players under 2+ years of team control. Pretending that you're a contender when you're not is anti-productive self-delusion (how'd that work out at last year's deadline?). You can make the best of it by trying to add value from within or you can fool yourself by filling short-term needs with older players on one-year deals and blocking the paths of your younger players for another year.
If they get a SS, they have a shot at the final wild card if most things go right. I look at it this way. At this point what do they have to lose? Maybe some of these pieces have trade value come July if things don't work out and Bloom realizes that it's ok to punt when your chances aren't good. But you mentions seeing what Refsnyder, Duran, and Arroyo having a chance. Refsnyder isn't some up and coming kid. He's about 30 and has been a AAAA player for a long time and he played well last year, creaming LH pitching, but he only had 100 some odd ABs. This isn't some future star. He's a role player, who should be able to still get some playing time, even with Duvall. Somebody will get hurt and he'll get his shot. With Duran....well CF is still kind of up for grabs. I honestly don't see it. He was that bad in CF. And 2b. Don't think he'll be much better there either, but if he hits like crazy in spring and hits like crazy in AAA and there's still a hole in CF or 2b, then I think he'll get a crack, but for 2b he'd have to be playing that position well at AAA if they went that route or he'd have to play acceptably in CF in AAA. Honestly, I think he'll be passed by from Rafaela who already has the defensive tools that Duran lacks. I think the best thing he can do at this time is play well in AAA and build up his trade value. With Arroyo, as it stands right now he is the regular 2b, but you can't just say it's his job and not have a backup plan. They're looking at Harrison which I don't really get. I think if they don't get Andrus, then Iglesias makes sense because he can slide over to SS if need by, which Harrison can't do, and he could sit behind Arroyo on the bench. I don't think he'd start at 2b over Arroyo but insurance isn't definitely needed. I don't think the moves they're making really prevents anything and I don't think those guys you mention are up and comers. Arroyo is probably the closest but it's not the Sox holding him back. It's his injury history.
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Post by patford on Jan 18, 2023 22:34:44 GMT -5
Duvall certainly wasn't on my wish list, but given where they are and what they need at this point, his presence makes a lot of sense. They never did replace Renfroe and Duvall kind of does that. He isn't as good offensively as Renfroe was the last two years as his OBP is constantly around .290 rather than .310, but he is supposed to be better defensively and he does have the power to whack 30 plus HRs, which this team does need although I'm not sure how it balances out, whether he's the starting CF or if he shifts over to RF at some point or is more of a #4 OF. Injuries happen so who knows if that gives him more time or if he's one of the guys who gets injured? But depth is important. So while I'm not over the moon about the move, I'd fine with it. Given their circumstances I would certainly prefer Bloom makes the move than doesn't make the move. And at this point that makes Kiké a SS. If they only have 11 - 14 million left and if Andrus is demanding 2 years and/or too much money then I hope they can get Iglesias and a LH reliever for less than 10 million. I know it's not seen as a priority but right now Josh Taylor, coming off an injury, would be their best lefty out of the pen and who knows if he's back to what he was in 2021 or 2019? I'd feel better with a trusty late inning lefty who can get an occasional righty out. I still have my eyes on Chafin, and Will Smith, but would be interested in taking a chance with Britton or Moore. I think that's the piece that's still missing from their pen. At this point I'd just go with what they have in the rotation. I'm not interested in a Verdugo for Lopez deal. I just wonder when Bloom finally gets another SS candidate. My guess is now that they have signed Duvall they will look to sign either Andrus or Iglesias whichever allows them to stay under the cap.
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Post by runner on Jan 18, 2023 22:54:06 GMT -5
What is Jarren Duran at this point? Even if he’s on the decline, Duvall is a much better option than anyone besides Hernandez in CF. I like this signing. I think it easily could become a good move by Bloom and the FO. Gives them a much needed RH bat to the lineup as well. OF: Hernandez, Verdugo, Duvall, Yoshida, Refsnyder, Duran Does Duran have upside to be passable in any OF spot? Someone who knows more, what is your view on Duran. I see him as a mediocre fielder, serious speed but you don’t get the full advantage from it because he struggles to get on base. I would love to deal him but would understand he doesn’t hold much value right now. Duran has power and speed. If he gets the strikeouts down, he could be a force. Big if. Worth keeping versus dealing away for little value. He's a left fielder only, unless he gets back to learning 2B again.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2023 22:54:42 GMT -5
Duvall certainly wasn't on my wish list, but given where they are and what they need at this point, his presence makes a lot of sense. They never did replace Renfroe and Duvall kind of does that. He isn't as good offensively as Renfroe was the last two years as his OBP is constantly around .290 rather than .310, but he is supposed to be better defensively and he does have the power to whack 30 plus HRs, which this team does need although I'm not sure how it balances out, whether he's the starting CF or if he shifts over to RF at some point or is more of a #4 OF. Injuries happen so who knows if that gives him more time or if he's one of the guys who gets injured? But depth is important. So while I'm not over the moon about the move, I'd fine with it. Given their circumstances I would certainly prefer Bloom makes the move than doesn't make the move. And at this point that makes Kiké a SS. If they only have 11 - 14 million left and if Andrus is demanding 2 years and/or too much money then I hope they can get Iglesias and a LH reliever for less than 10 million. I know it's not seen as a priority but right now Josh Taylor, coming off an injury, would be their best lefty out of the pen and who knows if he's back to what he was in 2021 or 2019? I'd feel better with a trusty late inning lefty who can get an occasional righty out. I still have my eyes on Chafin, and Will Smith, but would be interested in taking a chance with Britton or Moore. I think that's the piece that's still missing from their pen. At this point I'd just go with what they have in the rotation. I'm not interested in a Verdugo for Lopez deal. I just wonder when Bloom finally gets another SS candidate. My guess is now that they have signed Duvall they will look to sign either Andrus or Iglesias whichever allows them to stay under the cap. I would think Iglesias would come cheaper and I also think he wouldn't mind a 3rd tour of duty with the Red Sox. I think he was happy in Boston.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 18, 2023 23:30:40 GMT -5
I said "IF" he ditches Refsnyder after signing Duvall it smacks of desperation. Sorry for the nuance. I also said that this is a .500-ish team that is no better than 4th in their division. Do you want to dispute that? If not, then you agree that they are by definition fighting for the 3rd WC spot with BAL and whoever the second best teams in the ALC and ALW are. They were 26-50 vs. the AL East last year and have had a net meh offseason (including injuries), even with the unremarkable Duvall joining the club. Given the long odds of merely making the WC3, my approach is about upside. Duvall has zero upside. Iglesias has zero upside. Andrus has zero upside. Refsnyder, Duran, and Arroyo are all big leaguers and all have at least a chance of tapping into something that they haven't yet shown if given more playing time. If any of them do, their respective value would increase significantly in a way that they simply wouldn't if left in their same roles.
The only possible value one of the aforementioned seniors could gain (assuming one-year deals, which is the only logical outcome) is if they have a big year and it doesn't help the team contend and we get a middling prospect at the deadline. It's kicking the can down the road for a slim chance at a return. My approach reveals once and for all what we have in three cheap players under 2+ years of team control. Pretending that you're a contender when you're not is anti-productive self-delusion (how'd that work out at last year's deadline?). You can make the best of it by trying to add value from within or you can fool yourself by filling short-term needs with older players on one-year deals and blocking the paths of your younger players for another year.
If they get a SS, they have a shot at the final wild card if most things go right. I look at it this way. At this point what do they have to lose? Maybe some of these pieces have trade value come July if things don't work out and Bloom realizes that it's ok to punt when your chances aren't good. But you mentions seeing what Refsnyder, Duran, and Arroyo having a chance. Refsnyder isn't some up and coming kid. He's about 30 and has been a AAAA player for a long time and he played well last year, creaming LH pitching, but he only had 100 some odd ABs. This isn't some future star. He's a role player, who should be able to still get some playing time, even with Duvall. Somebody will get hurt and he'll get his shot. With Duran....well CF is still kind of up for grabs. I honestly don't see it. He was that bad in CF. And 2b. Don't think he'll be much better there either, but if he hits like crazy in spring and hits like crazy in AAA and there's still a hole in CF or 2b, then I think he'll get a crack, but for 2b he'd have to be playing that position well at AAA if they went that route or he'd have to play acceptably in CF in AAA. Honestly, I think he'll be passed by from Rafaela who already has the defensive tools that Duran lacks. I think the best thing he can do at this time is play well in AAA and build up his trade value. With Arroyo, as it stands right now he is the regular 2b, but you can't just say it's his job and not have a backup plan. They're looking at Harrison which I don't really get. I think if they don't get Andrus, then Iglesias makes sense because he can slide over to SS if need by, which Harrison can't do, and he could sit behind Arroyo on the bench. I don't think he'd start at 2b over Arroyo but insurance isn't definitely needed. I don't think the moves they're making really prevents anything and I don't think those guys you mention are up and comers. Arroyo is probably the closest but it's not the Sox holding him back. It's his injury history. I should have specified that I'm on Team Try Duran at 2B in Spring Training (and perhaps April in Worcester if he looks good) and see what happens. There isn't a single scout in the majors or minors that's going to tell his boss that he thinks Duran can play OF. If Duran can make the routine plays at 2B and turn a DP (something he did all through college), he at least keeps Hernandez in CF and gets another chance to learn to hit big league pitching (maybe he can someday make me unremember that hands-apart malarkey). If he does those things, he gains legit trade value. If he can't do any of that, he's pretty much done. If he doesn't get the chance to do any of that, he's already done.
[N.B. I want Hernandez to stay in CF because according to FG, Duvall has been a good defensive OF for three of his seven seasons -- the other four not. I'm not going to assume he'll be a good CF at 34-yo coming off a serious wrist injury; in fact, I'm going to assume that he won't be.]
Play Arroyo at SS. He's played there some with BOS and never embarrassed himself (not like he did in RF). He's mostly played 2B in BOS because Xander is so damned durable (and Story is, um, less so) and he was very good at 2B. He also has a decent bat for SS. Now SS is wide open, so give Arroyo the chance to boost his value immensely by showing that he can be a decent big league SS.
Refsnyder has bounced around a while and will turn 32 in March but he just had his breakout season, with a .384 OBP in 177 PAs. I like him as a 4th OF behind Yoshida, Hernandez, and Verdugo, and as a regular starter vs. LHP. He could also play RF on days that Yoshida DHs. Adding Duvall to the mix will only take PT away from Ref, which I think is a poor use of cap space.
EDIT: The bolded part is exactly the opposite of Chaim's track record.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 19, 2023 0:00:10 GMT -5
To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong. I hear you, but by this logic I’d prefer trying Wong out there seeing he’s played more 2B in the minors than Duran and would provide added positional flexibility to the roster. I missed this earlier and honestly didn't realize Wong had played 2B. I guess that's an option, but Duran still has theoretical upside whereas Wong is a nice backup catcher and maybe a break glass guy at 2B.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 19, 2023 1:07:19 GMT -5
My guess is now that they have signed Duvall they will look to sign either Andrus or Iglesias whichever allows them to stay under the cap. I would think Iglesias would come cheaper and I also think he wouldn't mind a 3rd tour of duty with the Red Sox. I think he was happy in Boston. I greatly prefer Andrus, but Iglesias seemed to be developing a leadership role in his second tour here and was mildly shocked he wasn’t offered a contract for an IF backup role.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 19, 2023 1:09:14 GMT -5
I hear you, but by this logic I’d prefer trying Wong out there seeing he’s played more 2B in the minors than Duran and would provide added positional flexibility to the roster. I missed this earlier and honestly didn't realize Wong had played 2B. I guess that's an option, but Duran still has theoretical upside whereas Wong is a nice backup catcher and maybe a break glass guy at 2B. I hear you. However, if Alfaro rakes in ST, and it came down to Wong or Duran as a backup 2B, I still think Wong has the edge as he can catch and apparently has a very strong presence in the clubhouse.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 19, 2023 1:16:20 GMT -5
It's a bit funny to me that you think this totally unremarkable 1/7 deal for a veteran to help fill a clear need on the roster "smacks of desperation," whereas your approach would be to go into the season with Jarren Duran as the second baseman. I said "IF" he ditches Refsnyder after signing Duvall it smacks of desperation. Sorry for the nuance.
I also said that this is a .500-ish team that is no better than 4th in their division. Do you want to dispute that? If not, then you agree that they are by definition fighting for the 3rd WC spot with BAL and whoever the second best teams in the ALC and ALW are. They were 26-50 vs. the AL East last year and have had a net meh offseason (including injuries), even with the unremarkable Duvall joining the club.
Given the long odds of merely making the WC3, my approach is about upside. Duvall has zero upside. Iglesias has zero upside. Andrus has zero upside. Refsnyder, Duran, and Arroyo are all big leaguers and all have at least a chance of tapping into something that they haven't yet shown if given more playing time. If any of them do, their respective value would increase significantly in a way that they simply wouldn't if left in their same roles.
The only possible value one of the aforementioned seniors could gain (assuming one-year deals, which is the only logical outcome) is if they have a big year and it doesn't help the team contend and we get a middling prospect at the deadline. It's kicking the can down the road for a slim chance at a return. My approach reveals once and for all what we have in three cheap players under 2+ years of team control.
Pretending that you're a contender when you're not is anti-productive self-delusion (how'd that work out at last year's deadline?). You can make the best of it by trying to add value from within or you can fool yourself by filling short-term needs with older players on one-year deals and blocking the paths of your younger players for another year.
Ouch. I think it’s a bit outlandish to say that Duvall, Andrus and Iglesias provide zero upside. Could all of them turn out to be mediocre? Totally. But it’s certainly not impossible to think that any of them could have a 2-3 WAR season.
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Post by jmei on Jan 19, 2023 10:32:26 GMT -5
[N.B. I want Hernandez to stay in CF because according to FG, Duvall has been a good defensive OF for three of his seven seasons -- the other four not. I'm not going to assume he'll be a good CF at 34-yo coming off a serious wrist injury; in fact, I'm going to assume that he won't be.]
This is bad analysis. Two of those negative years are in tiny sample sizes (his rookie season with 28 games played and 2019 in 41 games played) and he's been very good defensively in his other seasons. Over his career, Duvall is an overall +5.0 UZR/150 and +6.2 OAA/150, including +4.7 UZR/150 and +2.0 OAA in center field. Age is a definite concern but not sure why a left wrist injury is going to meaningfully and negatively affect his defense. I think it's fair to say that he's probably an averagish defensive CF at best, but that still makes him their second best CF option.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 19, 2023 11:26:39 GMT -5
[N.B. I want Hernandez to stay in CF because according to FG, Duvall has been a good defensive OF for three of his seven seasons -- the other four not. I'm not going to assume he'll be a good CF at 34-yo coming off a serious wrist injury; in fact, I'm going to assume that he won't be.]
This is bad analysis. Two of those negative years are in tiny sample sizes (his rookie season with 28 games played and 2019 in 41 games played) and he's been very good defensively in his other seasons. Over his career, Duvall is an overall +5.0 UZR/150 and +6.2 OAA/150, including +4.7 UZR/150 and +2.0 OAA in center field. Age is a definite concern but not sure why a left wrist injury is going to meaningfully and negatively affect his defense. I think it's fair to say that he's probably an averagish defensive CF at best, but that still makes him their second best CF option. Just to add to this, in CF specifically he's really played there only in the last two years, and was positive by OAA in both (+5 in 600 innings), the best CFs in baseball are just a little better than +10 over 1200 or so innings. Seems like he might lose a little defensive value for his arm, but rate wise he's been in the solidly "good" tier at the least. He's obviously getting older and we don't know how that would hold up over a whole season (IIRC for instance Hunter Renfroe for example started hot and faded defensively and Duvall's a similarly big guy), so I wouldn't necessarily expect anything more than average defense overall if he's there a whole year, but it's promising at least. Will also say I'm a huge fan of Hernandez in CF and expect/hope he gets a good amount of run there too.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 19, 2023 12:25:33 GMT -5
Refsnyder seems safe unless they acquire both a SS and a RHH bu MI and decide the last man has to be LHH Lots of flexibility here C McGuire / Wong or Alfaro 1B Casas / Turner / Duvall 2B Arroyo/ Hernandez (YMMV) SS _______/ Hernandez, Arroyo 3B Devers/ Turner LF Yoshida/ Duvall/ Verdugo CF Hernandez/ Duvall (YMMV)/ Refsnyder RF Verdugo/ Duvall/ Refsynder DH Turner/ Yoshida/ Devers/ Casas/ Duvall/ Kiké/ Verdugo Bench: 1) Wong or Alfaro/ 2) Duvall or Arroyo/ 3) Refsnyder, 4) _____ LHH or switch-hitter or MI In theory - in theory - this is a roster where everyone ought to at least produce positive WAR; no black holes like JBJ or Franchy or Danny Santana or Duran to act as WAR killers. But I was burned making that prediction before 2021. (Can't believe I thought Marwin Gonzalez would be non-terrible...)
It's easy to see 1.5-2 WAR performances at every position other than 3B, where they should get 4-5. That could get them to 19-20 positional WAR. If they could get the same out of the pitching (a moderately big 'if' but not at all crazy) then they're likely a playoff team.
appreciate the positivity of this post, but really how many times has this happened in the history of baseball. Also if just one guy doesn't meet expectation, and say goes -.5 that subtracts 2WAR from your 19-20 metric, or about 10% of the total, which is a more likely scenario. I don't personally think WAR should be used as a predictive stat. There are too many performance / injury variables. If we want to achieve higher WAR, and mitigate other players underperformance, then the solution is commonly known...have superstars on your roster. As for Duvall, there is a lot of hope, that's for sure.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 19, 2023 12:37:38 GMT -5
Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B. My guess is they believe he's beyond hopeless in CF and think it's still possible he might hit. There's also a comfort level thing. Duran has been playing 2nd base for most of his career and was rated average at the position. The muscle memory is instinctual to him at this point. In CF it's an uncomfortable learning curve that he's just not responding to. That has to carry over at the plate (at least, a lot of players over the years say it does). Look at Dalbec's comfort on the left side of the infield vs. the right side. Dude was so much more fluid and confident at 3rd and even SS. Some guys can adapt and others can't. Why try to force it when it's hurting his game and the team?
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Post by Guidas on Jan 19, 2023 12:43:46 GMT -5
[N.B. I want Hernandez to stay in CF because according to FG, Duvall has been a good defensive OF for three of his seven seasons -- the other four not. I'm not going to assume he'll be a good CF at 34-yo coming off a serious wrist injury; in fact, I'm going to assume that he won't be.]
This is bad analysis. Two of those negative years are in tiny sample sizes (his rookie season with 28 games played and 2019 in 41 games played) and he's been very good defensively in his other seasons. Over his career, Duvall is an overall +5.0 UZR/150 and +6.2 OAA/150, including +4.7 UZR/150 and +2.0 OAA in center field. Age is a definite concern but not sure why a left wrist injury is going to meaningfully and negatively affect his defense. I think it's fair to say that he's probably an averagish defensive CF at best, but that still makes him their second best CF option. See, now I want Kiké to stay in CF because Duvall is a 4th OF at best and should only be used in match-ups, mop-ups, late-inning (hopefully ahead on the scoreboard) defensive replacement or rest for another player situations. As someone else stated, JBJ has a better OBP and is a better OF. Given where JBJ is in his career, that's a low bar.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 19, 2023 12:49:21 GMT -5
This is bad analysis. Two of those negative years are in tiny sample sizes (his rookie season with 28 games played and 2019 in 41 games played) and he's been very good defensively in his other seasons. Over his career, Duvall is an overall +5.0 UZR/150 and +6.2 OAA/150, including +4.7 UZR/150 and +2.0 OAA in center field. Age is a definite concern but not sure why a left wrist injury is going to meaningfully and negatively affect his defense. I think it's fair to say that he's probably an averagish defensive CF at best, but that still makes him their second best CF option. See, now I want Kiké to stay in CF because Duvall is a 4th OF at best and should only be used in match-ups, mop-ups, late-inning (hopefully ahead on the scoreboard) defensive replacement or rest for another player situations. As someone else stated, JBJ has a better OBP and is a better OF. Given where JBJ is in his career, that's a low bar. How can he be a 4th OF at best, when he's been well above that in the past?
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Post by incandenza on Jan 19, 2023 13:09:04 GMT -5
This is bad analysis. Two of those negative years are in tiny sample sizes (his rookie season with 28 games played and 2019 in 41 games played) and he's been very good defensively in his other seasons. Over his career, Duvall is an overall +5.0 UZR/150 and +6.2 OAA/150, including +4.7 UZR/150 and +2.0 OAA in center field. Age is a definite concern but not sure why a left wrist injury is going to meaningfully and negatively affect his defense. I think it's fair to say that he's probably an averagish defensive CF at best, but that still makes him their second best CF option. See, now I want Kiké to stay in CF because Duvall is a 4th OF at best and should only be used in match-ups, mop-ups, late-inning (hopefully ahead on the scoreboard) defensive replacement or rest for another player situations. As someone else stated, JBJ has a better OBP and is a better OF. Given where JBJ is in his career, that's a low bar. Last season? No, JBJ had a .255 OBP; Duvall's was .276. And Duvall's SLG% was almost 100 points higher. Overall Duvall's wRC+ was 31 points higher, which is an enormous gap.
For their careers? Yes, JBJ has a slightly higher OBP but a lower wRC+ (96 vs. 84). And yet JBJ has had a successful major league career! So you're basically demonstrating that Duvall can indeed be a valuable contributor.
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Post by seamus on Jan 19, 2023 13:09:21 GMT -5
FanGraphs has an interesting piece on Duvall today: link. Gives some real cause for optimism, I think, because there seems to have been more going on last season than just the stuff that gets attributed to luck (e.g., bad BABIP) or a slow start. A dramatic change in contact profile suggests there was at least some conscious effort and reason to hope that some of those gains stick. Maybe he was running hot and that 143 wRC+ in June/July is too much to hope for, but even just a 100 wRC+ is tremendously valuable when paired with solid center field defense. If he can post something like 110 or 120 over 400+ PA? You're looking at the potential steal of the offseason.
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