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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
jimoh
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Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jan 18, 2023 13:39:10 GMT -5
Refsnyder seems safe unless they acquire both a SS and a RHH bu MI and decide the last man has to be LHH
Lots of flexibility here C McGuire / Wong or Alfaro 1B Casas / Turner / Duvall 2B Arroyo/ Hernandez (YMMV) SS _______/ Hernandez, Arroyo 3B Devers/ Turner LF Yoshida/ Duvall/ Verdugo CF Hernandez/ Duvall (YMMV)/ Refsnyder RF Verdugo/ Duvall/ Refsynder DH Turner/ Yoshida/ Devers/ Casas/ Duvall/ Kiké/ Verdugo Bench: 1) Wong or Alfaro/ 2) Duvall or Arroyo/ 3) Refsnyder, 4) _____ LHH or switch-hitter or MI
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 18, 2023 13:40:29 GMT -5
As I wrote above, I’m fine with this at this point. But for the pollyanas who are now saying the OF is good or look at 2021 or whatever…. where was the clamor for Duvall a month ago? Who said this was a great pickup at the start of the off season. Let’s not confuse making the best of a bad situation with flat-out good. I'm really liking this signing as a super 4OF. I have a lot of concern if he's the regular CFer. How much does the defense take a hit with Kiké - SS Arroyo - 2B Yoshida - LF Duvall - CF Verdugo - RF I really want to leave Kiké in CF. I would love if they tried Duran at 2B in ST. Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 18, 2023 13:43:13 GMT -5
I don't see one impacting the other unless they sign another IFer. Otherwise, Kiké stays in SS and Story replaces Arroyo or Arroyo's replacement because he's also hurt. I'd be surprised if they don't add a SS. I'd love a trade for Kim, but could also see an addition of Andrus or (hopefully not) Iglesias. Hernandez to 2B until Story is back, at which point he'd move back to CF and Duvall becomes a little redundant unless he's willing to become a 4th OFer. I just don't know how they're going to accomplish that and stay under the luxury tax if that's the intended goal for the season. They have a number of guys with very achievable performance incentives that's going to make the budget incredibly tight. I really would like Andrus, or at least Iglesias.
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2023 13:47:48 GMT -5
My examples are actually from what people said — someone said taking 2021 numbers and granting Yoshida ~3 WAR etc. Calling realists Eeyore is cheap. Did you target Duvall a month ago? If he starts, are you satisfied? If he doesn’t start, well, then he has not really solved any problems. I don’t see how a team that already has Refsnyder on the bench spends $7 mill on a guy they don’t intend to start. Really? One year small sample size Refsnyder? A 4th OF plays more than people realize, add in our CF likely playing some 2B or SS. It's certainly not perfect type crap for building a true title contender. Yet it's a quality move. My point was that he was signed to start… not that it is a bad move. I was saying they are not signing him to be redundant — already having Refsnyder as a bench OF.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 18, 2023 13:49:16 GMT -5
I'm really liking this signing as a super 4OF. I have a lot of concern if he's the regular CFer. How much does the defense take a hit with Kiké - SS Arroyo - 2B Yoshida - LF Duvall - CF Verdugo - RF I really want to leave Kiké in CF. I would love if they tried Duran at 2B in ST. Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B. To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2023 13:51:41 GMT -5
Refsnyder seems safe unless they acquire both a SS and a RHH bu MI and decide the last man has to be LHH Lots of flexibility here C McGuire / Wong or Alfaro 1B Casas / Turner / Duvall 2B Arroyo/ Hernandez (YMMV) SS _______/ Hernandez, Arroyo 3B Devers/ Turner LF Yoshida/ Duvall/ Verdugo CF Hernandez/ Duvall (YMMV)/ Refsnyder RF Verdugo/ Duvall/ Refsynder DH Turner/ Yoshida/ Devers/ Casas/ Duvall/ Kiké/ Verdugo Bench: 1) Wong or Alfaro/ 2) Duvall or Arroyo/ 3) Refsnyder, 4) _____ LHH or switch-hitter or MI In theory - in theory - this is a roster where everyone ought to at least produce positive WAR; no black holes like JBJ or Franchy or Danny Santana or Duran to act as WAR killers. But I was burned making that prediction before 2021. (Can't believe I thought Marwin Gonzalez would be non-terrible...)
It's easy to see 1.5-2 WAR performances at every position other than 3B, where they should get 4-5. That could get them to 19-20 positional WAR. If they could get the same out of the pitching (a moderately big 'if' but not at all crazy) then they're likely a playoff team.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 18, 2023 13:51:54 GMT -5
Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B. To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong. I hear you, but by this logic I’d prefer trying Wong out there seeing he’s played more 2B in the minors than Duran and would provide added positional flexibility to the roster.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 18, 2023 13:53:38 GMT -5
7 million for a guy who’s 2 years removed from 38 homers and 113 RBIs and RSN still ain’t happy! There’s not much left in FA. That has this type of promise. We needed some more pop in the lineup and that’s what Duvall will bring and we don’t lose any prospects. Big Win! 1979 called and they want their stats back... And in 1979 guys generally didn't strike out at a Duvall pace. I'm telling you, this guy is going to light the game threads up with his unproductive outs. If his power numbers don't return to their 2021 levels, you have another Bobby D., at least offensively. As someone who wants to see the Red Sox return to an emphasis on OBP, I can't be crazy about this signing. OTOH, it's a short-term deal, which is what a team is supposed to be giving out in a bridge year.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jan 18, 2023 13:55:51 GMT -5
Really? One year small sample size Refsnyder? A 4th OF plays more than people realize, add in our CF likely playing some 2B or SS. It's certainly not perfect type crap for building a true title contender. Yet it's a quality move. My point was that he was signed to start… not that it is a bad move. I was saying they are not signing him to be redundant — already having Refsnyder as a bench OF. I think Duvall might start in CF, or he might play a ton by filling in at the OF to give days off to almost anyone: the 1b & 3b (because Turner is versatile), ss and 2b (because Hernandez is versatile), and of course OF and DH. Devers and Toshiba hit every day but DH here and there, everybody else plays 5-6-7 days a week. Some light platooning with Verdugo and Toshiba and Casas.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2023 13:56:23 GMT -5
Why are some folks so insistent on starting Duran @ 2B? Last time he played there was in Single A in 2018 and it was only ~160 innings. If you thought he was terrible in CF, jeez louise he’s going to be an adventure @ 2B. To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong. I would be interested in this site's evaluators weighing in on this. Has the team stuck with Duran in the OF for so long because they've hoped beyond hope that he'll somehow figure it out someday? Or do they think that as bad as he's been out there he'd be even worse at 2B? I certainly get that they don't want to jerk him around in his development, but at this point I really think the ship has sailed on his ever being an adequate outfielder and a last-ditch shot at him returning to 2B would be worth it.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2023 14:00:10 GMT -5
1979 called and they want their stats back... And in 1979 guys generally didn't strike out at a Duvall pace. I'm telling you, this guy is going to light the game threads up with his unproductive outs. If his power numbers don't return to their 2021 levels, you have another Bobby D., at least offensively.As someone who wants to see the Red Sox return to an emphasis on OBP, I can't be crazy about this signing. OTOH, it's a short-term deal, which is what a team is supposed to be giving out in a bridge year. I'm neither particularly high nor particularly low on this signing, but "Bobby D with very good outfield defense" would be quite valuable. I think people will tolerate it if that's what he proves to be - as they've mostly tolerated it with Kiké, or as they did with JBJ back in 2017-2019.
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Post by seamus on Jan 18, 2023 14:20:50 GMT -5
To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong. I would be interested in this site's evaluators weighing in on this. Has the team stuck with Duran in the OF for so long because they've hoped beyond hope that he'll somehow figure it out someday? Or do they think that as bad as he's been out there he'd be even worse at 2B? I certainly get that they don't want to jerk him around in his development, but at this point I really think the ship has sailed on his ever being an adequate outfielder and a last-ditch shot at him returning to 2B would be worth it. I think it's something as simple as speed is his carrying tool, so at least there's upside if he puts something together in the outfield. If he plays 2nd base, there's basically no path for him to be a solid big leaguer unless his offensive takes another leap even beyond the ceiling he's shown so far. Really, the best way for him to contribute to the club is as a trade candidate, and that value disappears if they indicate he has no hope as an outfielder.
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Post by rico6 on Jan 18, 2023 14:23:44 GMT -5
And in 1979 guys generally didn't strike out at a Duvall pace. I'm telling you, this guy is going to light the game threads up with his unproductive outs. If his power numbers don't return to their 2021 levels, you have another Bobby D., at least offensively.As someone who wants to see the Red Sox return to an emphasis on OBP, I can't be crazy about this signing. OTOH, it's a short-term deal, which is what a team is supposed to be giving out in a bridge year. I'm neither particularly high nor particularly low on this signing, but "Bobby D with very good outfield defense" would be quite valuable. I think people will tolerate it if that's what he proves to be - as they've mostly tolerated it with Kiké, or as they did with JBJ back in 2017-2019. Good point. Also, with the Mets signing Pham for 1/6, I don't think 1/7 is a bad deal for Duvall.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jan 18, 2023 14:36:36 GMT -5
Who cares about the LUX TaX. Unless you are the guy writing the pay heck’s it’s quite immaterial. I understand the strategies and all but it’s really all speculation and here say. Current ownership clearly has cash and are willing to spend. Saying that they sure do have issues with the big king deals. Can anybody really Blaim them. I love the Duval signing, but I don’t like him in CF. A couple more moves and the Sox just might be competitive. The luxury tax is absolutely crucial when it inhibits your ability to sign other players or when it adds to the penalties for signing free agents (ie draft picks and loss of IFA pool) in addition to lessening the picks you get from someone else signing your players. Money doesn't matter....until it does.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jan 18, 2023 14:47:50 GMT -5
To be fair, I'm talking about trying him out there rather than others wanting to pencil him in. ST is the time to see if he can at least be serviceable there. If there's any potential, keep him in AAA for a month or so and continue to develop him until he's needed. The main reason is because he's an horrific OFer and getting good reads on balls doesn't dramatically improve. He just doesn't have the eye for it. He also hasn't shown any consistency with the bat so really, if he can't work his way into a positional void then he's utterly useless and should just be DFA'd. So, really it's hope he can handle it and hope that his bat comes around because at the current moment, he's useless. They're not signing Duvall if they thought Duran gave them anything. If I recall correctly, he was drafted as a 2B and was moved to CF to try and make use of his elite speed, not because he was a terrible 2B, but I could be wrong. I would be interested in this site's evaluators weighing in on this. Has the team stuck with Duran in the OF for so long because they've hoped beyond hope that he'll somehow figure it out someday? Or do they think that as bad as he's been out there he'd be even worse at 2B? I certainly get that they don't want to jerk him around in his development, but at this point I really think the ship has sailed on his ever being an adequate outfielder and a last-ditch shot at him returning to 2B would be worth it. Tiny sliver from John Sickels, 2018 "14) Jarren Duran, INF-OF, Grade C+: [...]played second base in college and can manage there well but Sox gave him looks in center and right to enhance versatility; projects as speed-oriented super-utility type with a chance for more if additional power comes; ETA 2021." www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/16/18099138/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2019
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Post by benzinger on Jan 18, 2023 16:13:01 GMT -5
I would be interested in this site's evaluators weighing in on this. Has the team stuck with Duran in the OF for so long because they've hoped beyond hope that he'll somehow figure it out someday? Or do they think that as bad as he's been out there he'd be even worse at 2B? I certainly get that they don't want to jerk him around in his development, but at this point I really think the ship has sailed on his ever being an adequate outfielder and a last-ditch shot at him returning to 2B would be worth it. I think it's something as simple as speed is his carrying tool, so at least there's upside if he puts something together in the outfield. If he plays 2nd base, there's basically no path for him to be a solid big leaguer unless his offensive takes another leap even beyond the ceiling he's shown so far. Really, the best way for him to contribute to the club is as a trade candidate, and that value disappears if they indicate he has no hope as an outfielder. I think any team that has even half-decent scouts can see that he has no hope as an outfielder at this point. In fact, I don’t think there’s a single poster left on here that is still defending Duran as an OF(and this is an overly optimistic group, in general). I have no idea if he can play 2B, but I’m fairly certain he can’t play in the outfield. Why not try him there in ST?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2023 16:16:41 GMT -5
I think it's something as simple as speed is his carrying tool, so at least there's upside if he puts something together in the outfield. If he plays 2nd base, there's basically no path for him to be a solid big leaguer unless his offensive takes another leap even beyond the ceiling he's shown so far. Really, the best way for him to contribute to the club is as a trade candidate, and that value disappears if they indicate he has no hope as an outfielder. I think any team that has even half-decent scouts can see that he has no hope as an outfielder at this point. In fact, I don’t think there’s a single poster left on here that is still defending Duran as an OF(and this is an overly optimistic group, in general). I have no idea if he can play 2B, but I’m fairly certain he can’t play in the outfield. Why not try him there in ST? It’s worth mentioning that although always ugly, his defensive metrics were slightly improving later in the year. He could be viable in a corner eventually but that’s still depending on his bat coming alive which it hasn’t in the majors.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 18, 2023 17:39:35 GMT -5
I think it's something as simple as speed is his carrying tool, so at least there's upside if he puts something together in the outfield. If he plays 2nd base, there's basically no path for him to be a solid big leaguer unless his offensive takes another leap even beyond the ceiling he's shown so far. Really, the best way for him to contribute to the club is as a trade candidate, and that value disappears if they indicate he has no hope as an outfielder. I think any team that has even half-decent scouts can see that he has no hope as an outfielder at this point. In fact, I don’t think there’s a single poster left on here that is still defending Duran as an OF(and this is an overly optimistic group, in general). I have no idea if he can play 2B, but I’m fairly certain he can’t play in the outfield. Why not try him there in ST? Disagree, the ’group’ is not overly optimistic. You are overly pessimistic.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 18, 2023 18:46:27 GMT -5
Who cares about the LUX TaX. Unless you are the guy writing the pay heck’s it’s quite immaterial. I understand the strategies and all but it’s really all speculation and here say. Current ownership clearly has cash and are willing to spend. Saying that they sure do have issues with the big king deals. Can anybody really Blaim them. I love the Duval signing, but I don’t like him in CF. A couple more moves and the Sox just might be competitive. The luxury tax is absolutely crucial when it inhibits your ability to sign other players or when it adds to the penalties for signing free agents (ie draft picks and loss of IFA pool) in addition to lessening the picks you get from someone else signing your players. Money doesn't matter....until it does. Luxury tax isn't adding penalties to sign players, that's players offered QO where you lose picks and international money. Just don’t sign them and we wouldn't have lost any picks if Bloom had traded Bogaerts and Eovaldi like he should have. 40 million over should be on the table every year if needed. This let's get under, then barely go over crap is stupid. Then stay under again with our revenue. Unless you think our owner needs to get his share of luxury tax money.
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 18:54:50 GMT -5
If he doesn’t start, well, then he has not really solved any problems. I don’t see how a team that already has Refsnyder on the bench spends $7 mill on a guy they don’t intend to start. This roster did not have a legitimate backup center fielder before they signed Duvall. (Duran is not reliable enough either offensively or defensively, Verdugo and Refsnyder are both strictly corner outfielders and Greg Allen is the definition of a replacement-level player.) Duvall fills that need admirably. Having good backup fourth and fifth outfielders is quite important, especially on a roster with two LHHs starting at LF and RF and a starting CF who will also get reps at SS/2B. $7M is the going rate for bench players who will get a good amount of playing time (see, e.g., Brandon Drury ($8.5M), Adam Frazier ($8M), Trey Mancini ($7M), Tommy Pham ($6M), etc.).
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 18:59:23 GMT -5
I've always had a soft spot for the good defensive OF/lots of power/bad plate discipline combo. Think Alfonso Soriano, B.J. Upton, Mike Cameron (who I thought was a great signing in 2009-2010--shows you what I know).
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2023 19:07:55 GMT -5
If he doesn’t start, well, then he has not really solved any problems. I don’t see how a team that already has Refsnyder on the bench spends $7 mill on a guy they don’t intend to start. This roster did not have a legitimate backup center fielder before they signed Duvall. (Duran is not reliable enough either offensively or defensively, Verdugo and Refsnyder are both strictly corner outfielders and Greg Allen is the definition of a replacement-level player.) Duvall fills that need admirably. Having good backup fourth and fifth outfielders is quite important, especially on a roster with two LHHs starting at LF and RF and a starting CF who will also get reps at SS/2B. $7M is the going rate for bench players who will get a good amount of playing time (see, e.g., Brandon Drury ($8.5M), Adam Frazier ($8M), Trey Mancini ($7M), Tommy Pham ($6M), etc.). Nonetheless, if they signed him as 4/5 OF bench option, then I think it is a little strange — I am not sure what this leaves them to spend, but it likely cuts Andrus close. So if you are getting a bench OF and saying “we’ll fill MI after,” I think it is a curious allocation of funds.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 18, 2023 19:10:43 GMT -5
I think any team that has even half-decent scouts can see that he has no hope as an outfielder at this point. In fact, I don’t think there’s a single poster left on here that is still defending Duran as an OF(and this is an overly optimistic group, in general). I have no idea if he can play 2B, but I’m fairly certain he can’t play in the outfield. Why not try him there in ST? Disagree, the ’group’ is not overly optimistic. You are overly pessimistic. Didn’t you say you blocked me a while back? I wish you would stick to that.
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 19:11:16 GMT -5
Disagree, the ’group’ is not overly optimistic. You are overly pessimistic. Didn’t you say you blocked me a while back? I wish you would stick to that. Cut out the bickering.
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 19:22:42 GMT -5
This roster did not have a legitimate backup center fielder before they signed Duvall. (Duran is not reliable enough either offensively or defensively, Verdugo and Refsnyder are both strictly corner outfielders and Greg Allen is the definition of a replacement-level player.) Duvall fills that need admirably. Having good backup fourth and fifth outfielders is quite important, especially on a roster with two LHHs starting at LF and RF and a starting CF who will also get reps at SS/2B. $7M is the going rate for bench players who will get a good amount of playing time (see, e.g., Brandon Drury ($8.5M), Adam Frazier ($8M), Trey Mancini ($7M), Tommy Pham ($6M), etc.). Nonetheless, if they signed him as 4/5 OF bench option, then I think it is a little strange — I am not sure what this leaves them to spend, but it likely cuts Andrus close. So if you are getting a bench OF and saying “we’ll fill MI after,” I think it is a curious allocation of funds. This leaves them with something like $11M to $14M (depending on whose numbers you trust) to acquire a SS/2B, which feels like enough for someone like Andrus (who had a Fangraphs median crowdsource prediction of 2/$20M) and is more than enough room for someone like Iglesias or a trade acquisition. They can always subtract salary if needed (e.g., Paxton's $4M, Brasier's $2M, Rodriguez's $1.5M) if they need a little more room. Per just about all of the depth charts out there (including the SoxProspects.com one), they had two needs left (a SS/2B and an OF) and they filled one with this move. I'm not sure what about this is so hard to understand.
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