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4/6-4/9 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Apr 9, 2023 16:27:42 GMT -5
Let’s trade for Jo Adell, who homered for the 6th straight game in AAA today, and have the worst defensive OF ever assembled lmao
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 9, 2023 16:34:57 GMT -5
Maybe that means no break? But there are worse things than a break Maybe it means their medical guy who they want to look at the X-rays has off for Easter. Why couldn't he look at the xRay from home? I'd assume he'd be on call for a case like this Of course maybe you were joking.
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 16:40:19 GMT -5
If it's significant time I think Duran is up and getting regular at bats. Back playing in CF. Duran in CF and Kiké at SS would make for an utterly monstrous defense. I would much rather move Kiké back to CF and make do with Chang or Arroyo at SS. Just bite the bullet on offense (where Duran isn't exactly guaranteed to help anyway). Yeah, thinking it over I'd rather see a trade if it's a long term thing. The defense would just be too much of a trainwreck. Duran is probably up if Turner or Yoshida go down. Pivetta being the guy you trade.
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 16:42:45 GMT -5
Rumors are it's bad.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 9, 2023 16:48:54 GMT -5
Going to him for one in the 7th with the score close today says to me that he's a major league reliever for the foreseeable future. Eh I think he was going to pitch today regardless and because it was close and Crawford made it through 5 they used him this way instead of for multiple innings. My guess at this moment, if all pitchers stay/get healthy the send down order is: Crawford, Kelly, Winckowski, Ort, Brasier. Someone probably gets hurt before it comes to it, and bad outings by any of them could change that. I would put Winckowski last on this list personally, since he looks the best out of all of the guys listed. His stuff plays much better in the pen than as a starter and he has looked downright nasty so far. I think he should stay in his current role unless the wheels come off.
Personally I wouldn't even put him on the starter depth chart unless they need an emergency ~3 inning spot start. I would rather call up someone from the Worcester rotation than use Winckowski as a traditional starter again.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 9, 2023 16:50:32 GMT -5
That’s a shame. Regardless of injury risks, with how bad this defense is, Cora should be using defensive subs more.
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 16:57:31 GMT -5
Duvall headed to the IL.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 9, 2023 16:58:23 GMT -5
Duran in CF and Kiké at SS would make for an utterly monstrous defense. I would much rather move Kiké back to CF and make do with Chang or Arroyo at SS. Just bite the bullet on offense (where Duran isn't exactly guaranteed to help anyway). Yeah, thinking it over I'd rather see a trade if it's a long term thing. The defense would just be too much of a trainwreck. Duran is probably up if Turner or Yoshida go down. Pivetta being the guy you trade. I don't like trading Pivetta to fill a SS hole that will only be open for the duration of Duvall's injury or ~6 weeks, whichever is shorter. Pivetta is basically the only guy in the rotation that can reliably be counted on to eat a ton of innings this year, which is huge for us, and he's not good/cheap/controllable enough to fetch a good SS. I agree with incandenza that Kiké should be in CF and Chang should slide up to fill the hole at SS. Dalbec could possibly come up in the short term given all of the lefties coming up and the team's apparent willingness to use him in the middle infield.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2023 17:22:52 GMT -5
Well, if Duvall misses time and those PAs mostly go to Refsnyder instead, it'll be yet another test (in addition to the pitching injuries) of the theory that this team should be resilient because they've got league-average players all the way to the end of the roster. Going by projections*, swapping out Duvall for Refsnyder is basically replacing one 110 wRC+ outfielder for another.
*except for ZiPS, which has really gone bananas for Duvall, projecting him for a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way
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Post by jmei on Apr 9, 2023 18:09:08 GMT -5
Well, if Duvall misses time and those PAs mostly go to Refsnyder instead, it'll be yet another test (in addition to the pitching injuries) of the theory that this team should be resilient because they've got league-average players all the way to the end of the roster. Going by projections*, swapping out Duvall for Refsnyder is basically replacing one 110 wRC+ outfielder for another. *except for ZiPS, which has really gone bananas for Duvall, projecting him for a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way
Based on their calling up Dalbec (rather than Duran), it seems like heâll effectively be replaced by Chang (and a bit of Dalbec), with Kiké moving to CF.
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Post by patford on Apr 9, 2023 18:09:09 GMT -5
If it were good we'd probably have heard something already. Pete Abraham reported Duvall was moving the wrist back and forth as he headed for the bench. I'd assume 15 day DL is best case scenario. Ridiculous the Sox haven't at least commented on the X-Ray. Of course ligament and tendon injuries can be worse than broken bones.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 9, 2023 18:16:30 GMT -5
What a bummer. I was having some really unrealistic expectations out of him and was really enjoying the ride so far. Hopefully he comes back soon and fully healthy and able to just pick up where he left off.
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Post by keninten on Apr 9, 2023 18:18:16 GMT -5
He was about to go on his cold streak. He`ll return when he was about to get hot again.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 9, 2023 18:29:34 GMT -5
The Winckowski case is pretty interesting. He’s probably the teams 8th starter right now? But he’s also looked awesome in the pen. The MLB team, if relatively healthy, is better with him in the bullpen, but they’d probably want to start him at some point. So you send him down to AAA when Bello gets back to keep him stretched, or you keep him in the majors and send down a second one of Ort/Kelly//Brasier? Going to him for one in the 7th with the score close today says to me that he's a major league reliever for the foreseeable future. Winckowski is far, far more valuable as a 7th inning reliever this year than a 7th starter sitting in AAA!!! He is probably in a small group of trusted relievers for Cora that include him, Martin, and Jansen.
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 18:31:39 GMT -5
Yeah, thinking it over I'd rather see a trade if it's a long term thing. The defense would just be too much of a trainwreck. Duran is probably up if Turner or Yoshida go down. Pivetta being the guy you trade. I don't like trading Pivetta to fill a SS hole that will only be open for the duration of Duvall's injury or ~6 weeks, whichever is shorter. Pivetta is basically the only guy in the rotation that can reliably be counted on to eat a ton of innings this year, which is huge for us, and he's not good/cheap/controllable enough to fetch a good SS. I agree with incandenza that Kiké should be in CF and Chang should slide up to fill the hole at SS. Dalbec could possibly come up in the short term given all of the lefties coming up and the team's apparent willingness to use him in the middle infield. Counterpoint- That 6 weeks means a lot. A quarter of the season. Alberto Mondesi isn't a guy who shouldn't be playing everyday coming back from a bad injury. He'll need days off, more than most regulars when he comes back. The difference between Pivetta and Houck might be more marginal than the huge difference between Arroyo at short stop for that time and a better defensive short stop. Pivetta isn't going to be a long-term guy here. He'll be gone before 2024. His last year of arbitration will be expensive if he has a year close to his 2022 this year. Add- I think Pivetta's value is enough to get you some kind of good fill-in. Especially for a team starved for starting pitching due to injuries or performance right now.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 9, 2023 18:39:07 GMT -5
This really hurts. I missed the game today and now i’m reading all this wanting to cry. Duvall was having a special start. Time to trade for Reynolds.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 9, 2023 18:40:20 GMT -5
I don't like trading Pivetta to fill a SS hole that will only be open for the duration of Duvall's injury or ~6 weeks, whichever is shorter. Pivetta is basically the only guy in the rotation that can reliably be counted on to eat a ton of innings this year, which is huge for us, and he's not good/cheap/controllable enough to fetch a good SS. I agree with incandenza that Kiké should be in CF and Chang should slide up to fill the hole at SS. Dalbec could possibly come up in the short term given all of the lefties coming up and the team's apparent willingness to use him in the middle infield. Counterpoint- That 6 weeks means a lot. A quarter of the season. Alberto Mondesi isn't a guy who shouldn't be playing everyday coming back from a bad injury. He'll need days off, more than most regulars when he comes back. The difference between Pivetta and Houck might be more marginal than the huge difference between Arroyo at short stop for that time and a better defensive short stop. Pivetta isn't going to be a long-term guy here. He'll be gone before 2024. His last year of arbitration will be expensive if he has a year close to his 2022 this year.
I agree. If Duvall's injury is a 60 day stint, I think it's virtually guaranteed Pivetta is traded for a middle IF. Perhaps for Ha Seong Kim? Padres definitely need the starting pitching depth.
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Post by keninten on Apr 9, 2023 18:43:15 GMT -5
Paxton was pretty good today. 58-34 pitches, Got up to 96, 3 innings, 3 k`s, 2 hits, 2 BB.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 9, 2023 18:43:17 GMT -5
Honestly, replacing Duvall's bat with Chang's while getting big defensive upgrades at CF and SS doesn't strike me as a too big a deal. I wasn't expecting Duvall to be much more than average with the bat going forward.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 9, 2023 18:50:16 GMT -5
This such a tough situation, I feel terrible for Duvall.
Just spit-balling, but moving forward if you had to trade one of Bello, Whitlock or Houck for a Frontline SS of CF would you? or do you just cut bait and pray, and if it goes really bad sell.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2023 19:04:06 GMT -5
Honestly, replacing Duvall's bat with Chang's while getting big defensive upgrades at CF and SS doesn't strike me as a too big a deal. I wasn't expecting Duvall to be much more than average with the bat going forward. I mostly agree, but it's a shame if we don't get to find out if he might have unlocked something. ZiPS, for one, was already high on him with a preseason 117 wRC+ projection, but has already boosted that to 130 rest-of-season. What a boon that would be/might still be/could have been for this team.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 9, 2023 19:20:30 GMT -5
I don't like trading Pivetta to fill a SS hole that will only be open for the duration of Duvall's injury or ~6 weeks, whichever is shorter. Pivetta is basically the only guy in the rotation that can reliably be counted on to eat a ton of innings this year, which is huge for us, and he's not good/cheap/controllable enough to fetch a good SS. I agree with incandenza that Kiké should be in CF and Chang should slide up to fill the hole at SS. Dalbec could possibly come up in the short term given all of the lefties coming up and the team's apparent willingness to use him in the middle infield. Counterpoint- That 6 weeks means a lot. A quarter of the season. Alberto Mondesi isn't a guy who shouldn't be playing everyday coming back from a bad injury. He'll need days off, more than most regulars when he comes back. The difference between Pivetta and Houck might be more marginal than the huge difference between Arroyo at short stop for that time and a better defensive short stop. Pivetta isn't going to be a long-term guy here. He'll be gone before 2024. His last year of arbitration will be expensive if he has a year close to his 2022 this year. Add- I think Pivetta's value is enough to get you some kind of good fill-in. Especially for a team starved for starting pitching due to injuries or performance right now. Mondesi was looking like he had an outside chance of being ready for Opening Day coming into camp, and then was 60 Day IL'd without any major setback (to my knowledge). I'm expecting him to be ready to go by the end of May. Maybe he gets more days off than usual when he returns, but he should be playing most days.
Let's assume Pivetta can be traded for an average (~2 WAR) SS, which I think is already a stretch. The difference between that SS and a replacement level bozo (0 WAR) over a max of 6 weeks is ~0.4 wins minus what you lose by giving up Pivetta. That doesn't move the needle at all. Pivetta made 33 starts and ate 179.2 IP last year, and he's the only guy on our staff we can count on for similar durability this year. There's no reason to expect him to be gone before 2024 unless guys exceed expectations and/or he regresses. He's only making $5.3 million this year in Arb 2. A reliable back of rotation starter would still be a good deal at ~1/8 next year, which is about what he would get if he reprised 2022; Pivetta's combined value over the past two seasons was $29.5 million, per Fangraphs, so well north of what he'll be making in Arb 3. Almost by definition, players need to regress over their arbitration years in order to not be worth the money.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Apr 9, 2023 19:22:05 GMT -5
Well, if Duvall misses time and those PAs mostly go to Refsnyder instead, it'll be yet another test (in addition to the pitching injuries) of the theory that this team should be resilient because they've got league-average players all the way to the end of the roster. Going by projections*, swapping out Duvall for Refsnyder is basically replacing one 110 wRC+ outfielder for another. *except for ZiPS, which has really gone bananas for Duvall, projecting him for a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way
Based on their calling up Dalbec (rather than Duran), it seems like heâÂÂll effectively be replaced by Chang (and a bit of Dalbec), with Kiké moving to CF. Hopefully thatâll help Kiké get back on track, hasnât looked comfortable in the field or at the plate playing SS.
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Post by keninten on Apr 9, 2023 19:40:09 GMT -5
Kiké needs to go back to CF. Duvall may have gotten hurt at the "right" time. Whoever goes to SS will be better defensively. Without worry about his shitty play in the field, Kiké may start to hit. Hopefully we are getting at least one MIFer back before the All-Star break. We are going to see how the purported good depth is now.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 9, 2023 19:41:35 GMT -5
Pivetta to the Braves for Arcia?
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