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2023 National Rankings (in season)
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 9:28:29 GMT -5
Let's go!!! I respect their rankings/evaluations across the board (even during times when I feel they are harsh on the Sox) more than any other publication. Certainly more than MLB Pipeline, who seemed to pay very little mind to the very young high-ceiling pitchers, in contrast to BA.. "The depth of the Red Sox system is strong, as the emergence of several pitching prospects—most notably Luis Perales, Wikelman Gonzalez and Yordanny Monegro—has changed the look of the system in just a few short months." Trying to be as objective as possible, I do think 5th is still very generous. I am as far from an expert regarding the intricacies of prospect/organizational evaluation as they come, but my macro level knowledge gives me reason to believe that the Sox farm system is somewhere between the BA and MLB Pipeline rankings, somewhere #8-#10. I do believe the knock from MLB Pipeline, in regard to the lack of starting pitching talent in the upper levels of the minors being close to MLB ready, was very fair. And it forced me to take a step back and acknowledge that the lack is sort of glaring.. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2023 10:10:11 GMT -5
MLB: 16
Fangraphs: 4
The Athletic/Law: 20
Baseball America: 10
ESPN/Kiley: 14I agree these can change given when they're done within a 6 month period, who graduates and regresses, etc. But, given what we have, one is definitely an outlier. The big caveat here is, all are subjective and the outlier predicates everything on perceived FV. That, and we're all pretty biased on this website.  BA is closer to FG than it is to Law. It's an extra half std. deviation from the mean. 6 points lower than the next lowest vs. Law being 4 pts higher than the next highest. More looks like a big range to me than one outlier. I'd also contend that for the most part they all predicate everything on perceived FV, Fangraphs just uses a formula to add it all up. The others also take into account system balance to varying extents. They're all also not equally high caliber (I don't know which is off by the most, but I know they all don't have equal time to study all the farms/equal abilities to score prospects). Keep in mind BA ranked Yoshida and nobody else did. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 17, 2023 10:11:55 GMT -5
BA is closer to FG than it is to Law. It's an extra half std. deviation from the mean. 6 points lower than the next lowest vs. Law being 4 pts higher than the next highest. More looks like a big range to me than one outlier. I'd also contend that for the most part they all predicate everything on perceived FV, Fangraphs just uses a formula to add it all up. The others also take into account system balance to varying extents. They're all also not equally high caliber (I don't know which is off by the most, but I know they all don't have equal time to study all the farms/equal abilities to score prospects). Keep in mind BA ranked Yoshida and nobody else did. Maybe true, but now at the midseason I assume Yoshida does not count and yet they are even closer to FG's opinion. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2023 10:14:40 GMT -5
Keep in mind BA ranked Yoshida and nobody else did. Maybe true, but now at the midseason I assume Yoshida does not count and yet they are even closer to FG's opinion. Yeah my point was only on the preseason rankings. It was pretty consensus plus Law. Midseason I get why you'd have more variance. The outlets can't do nearly as much homework as when they have months to talk to scouts and FO types. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 17, 2023 10:20:22 GMT -5
Maybe true, but now at the midseason I assume Yoshida does not count and yet they are even closer to FG's opinion. Yeah my point was only on the preseason rankings. It was pretty consensus plus Law. Midseason I get why you'd have more variance. The outlets can't do nearly as much homework as when they have months to talk to scouts and FO types. Yeah this goes to what I was saying about comparing midseason and preseason rankings though. FG IIRC also counted Yoshida and had them 9th preseason, so they and BA have been relatively consistent with each other. My point was only that FG hasn't been out on an island really. |
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 17, 2023 10:22:53 GMT -5
Is it ok if Kennedy references this one, or does he still have to use the lowest ranking list? Guess it depends on whether you're applying for a loan or filing your taxes. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 17, 2023 10:27:00 GMT -5
So 10-14 as our aggregate ranking between all. Seems about fair to me
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 10:40:31 GMT -5
So 10-14 as our aggregate ranking between all. Seems about fair to me I'll go with Chris on the fact that a lot of these publications don't do as much of the homework midseason. Although based on the updated individual prospect evaluations I've read on BA (not only for the Red Sox) vs. MLB, it seems as though they put more in than most. I'd lean more heavily towards them and FanGraphs, based on another point Chris made.. " Fangraphs just uses a formula to add it all up. The others also take into account system balance to varying extents. They're all also not equally high caliber (I don't know which is off by the most, but I know they all don't have equal time to study all the farms/equal abilities to score prospects)."I'm less apt than many on this forum to go with the pure numbers/data, but in this case, I think there are good reasons to give them the most credence. As I stated in a prior post, and based on those facts, I think the Sox should be viewed in the aggregate as around #8-#10. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 10:43:57 GMT -5
So, revised:
MLB: 16
Fangraphs: 4
The Athletic/Law: 20
Baseball America: 5
ESPN/Kiley: 14
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,532
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Post by nomar on Aug 17, 2023 10:46:19 GMT -5
So, revised: MLB: 16
Fangraphs: 4
The Athletic/Law: 20
Baseball America: 5
ESPN/Kiley: 14Always nice to see the 2 you trust the least be the lowest |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 17, 2023 10:52:05 GMT -5
BA is closer to FG than it is to Law. It's an extra half std. deviation from the mean. 6 points lower than the next lowest vs. Law being 4 pts higher than the next highest. More looks like a big range to me than one outlier. I'd also contend that for the most part they all predicate everything on perceived FV, Fangraphs just uses a formula to add it all up. The others also take into account system balance to varying extents. They're all also not equally high caliber (I don't know which is off by the most, but I know they all don't have equal time to study all the farms/equal abilities to score prospects). Keep in mind BA ranked Yoshida and nobody else did. And Keith Law slammed the signing because he thought they should've signed Willson Contreras instead |
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 17, 2023 11:00:13 GMT -5
Isn’t it a simple issue of more variance because our prospects are all in A ball vs teams having more in the upper minors? You can love Bleis all you want, but he barely made the FCL before hurt.
If you put the appropriate discount rate on youth, you can easily lower the rankings. Even if you had a system with the top 5 HS kids in it you have no track record, and the attrition rate for 18 year olds remains high
This isn’t a group at AA just percolating upwards like established programs.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 11:01:31 GMT -5
Is it ok if Kennedy references this one, or does he still have to use the lowest ranking list? I think he should use the highest now and then reference the lowest in the winter. Would show incredible progress. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 11:16:26 GMT -5
Keep in mind BA ranked Yoshida and nobody else did. And Keith Law slammed the signing because he thought they should've signed Willson Contreras instead Contreras has a lot of miles on him and is two years older than Masa, but this year, at least, he's currently a 2.1 fWAR player playing a more valuable position. Yoshida is a 1.0 fWAR player so far. Stat lines so far are nearly identical: Contrera: .261 AVE/.357 OBP/.446 SLG/.351 wOBA/124 wRC+ 13 HRs C:79 games DH:23 Yoshida: .298 AVE/.355 OBP/.466 SLG/.355 wOBA/122 wRC+ 12 HRs LF:62 games DH:41 Both have been rated as minus defenders at their positions (Contreras -1.1; Yoshida -2.4). They have similar AAVs - Contreras $17.5, Yoshida $18.0 Personally, I'd rather have Yoshida for the next four years, but so far, Law's been right if one goes by fWAR. Given that Contreras is a catcher and two years older, he will likely decline more rapidly. Of course, we'll all have to come back in 4 years to find out. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 17, 2023 11:17:19 GMT -5
Isn’t it a simple issue of more variance because our prospects are all in A ball vs teams having more in the upper minors? You can love Bleis all you want, but he barely made the FCL before hurt. If you put the appropriate discount rate on youth, you can easily lower the rankings. Even if you had a system with the top 5 HS kids in it you have no track record, and the attrition rate for 18 year olds remains high This isn’t a group at AA just percolating upwards like established programs. I think it's more an issue that nobody is putting a tremendous amount of thought into this, and nobody really has a grasp on all 30 farm systems to begin with. |
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 11:56:48 GMT -5
Isn’t it a simple issue of more variance because our prospects are all in A ball vs teams having more in the upper minors? You can love Bleis all you want, but he barely made the FCL before hurt. If you put the appropriate discount rate on youth, you can easily lower the rankings. Even if you had a system with the top 5 HS kids in it you have no track record, and the attrition rate for 18 year olds remains high This isn’t a group at AA just percolating upwards like established programs. I think it's more an issue that nobody is putting a tremendous amount of thought into this, and nobody really has a grasp on all 30 farm systems to begin with. I would say that's a fairly hyperbolic assertion regarding the amount of thought being put into it.. although I do get the sense that less research is done for "mid-season" rankings (particularly MLB Pipeline). |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 17, 2023 13:17:35 GMT -5
Given the talk of Whitmore and innings, I looked at the innings of our top 30 guys and it's not what you want to see if you want a bunch of starters to eat innings. I'll say first maybe it means nothing, every prospect is different. Only two guys every over a 100 inning, Mata and Drohan who has done it back to back. Gonzalez should crack 100 inning for the first time while now in AA. Only two guys in top 60 have back to back 100 plus inning seasons Drohan and Liu. I'll point out Murphy had two back to backs before going to Red Sox bullpen this year.
Now before I get attacked, again maybe it means nothing. I can see some not liking that and downgrading players because of it.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 17, 2023 13:20:41 GMT -5
Does anyone have a link to this Law #20 ranking? All I'm able to find is that he ranked them 23rd preseason, not 20th. And but then he had 4 Red Sox in the top 50 midseason, with Mayer at #3, plus an honorable mention just outside the top 60, so it'd be weird if he had their farm ranked 20th now.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 14:06:56 GMT -5
Does anyone have a link to this Law #20 ranking? All I'm able to find is that he ranked them 23rd preseason, not 20th. And but then he had 4 Red Sox in the top 50 midseason, with Mayer at #3, plus an honorable mention just outside the top 60, so it'd be weird if he had their farm ranked 20th now.
I was thinking the EXACT same thing.. I usually expect it to be there reverse with him too (less respect for Sox prospects on his top-50 or 60 lists, more respect for the depth of the farm system as a whole).... Very confused by his rationale. And I'm also not sure where to find the #20 ranking from Law/The Athletic, either.. I realize that you and I have differences of opinion about Rafaela (which I was rather rude about, and I apologize for being so).. But Law had Rafaela in his top-50 in July, and BA had him out of their most recent rankings.. yet BA has the Sox organization at #5 overall, and Law apparently has them at #20. Just seems strange that with Law drastically higher than most experts on Sox elite prospects, he is so low on the system overall. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 17, 2023 14:10:17 GMT -5
Does anyone have a link to this Law #20 ranking? All I'm able to find is that he ranked them 23rd preseason, not 20th. And but then he had 4 Red Sox in the top 50 midseason, with Mayer at #3, plus an honorable mention just outside the top 60, so it'd be weird if he had their farm ranked 20th now.
I was thinking the EXACT same thing.. I usually expect it to be there reverse with him too (less respect for Sox prospects on his top-50 or 60 lists, more respect for the depth of the farm system as a whole).... Very confused by his rationale. And I'm also not sure where to find the #20 ranking from Law/The Athletic, either.. I realize that you and I have differences of opinion about Rafaela (which I was rather rude about, and I apologize for being so).. But Law had Rafaela in his top-50 in July, and BA had him out of their most recent rankings.. yet BA has the Sox organization at #5 overall, and Law apparently has them at #20. Just seems strange that with Law drastically higher than most experts on Sox elite prospects, he is so low on the system overall. Law heavily weights the lack of pitching in the system against the Sox in his overall grade, or at least his perception of it. I don't agree with it but if I squint I can see where he's coming from a little. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 14:22:52 GMT -5
So, revised: MLB: 16
Fangraphs: 4
The Athletic/Law: 20
Baseball America: 5
ESPN/Kiley: 14Re-Revised (I thought I read on this site that Law had the Sox at 20 but 23 it is): The Athletic/Law: 23 Baseball America: 5 ESPN/Kiley: 14 Fangraphs/Longenhagen: 4 MLB: 16 Interesting that three of these are basically the opinion of one guy each, which is filtered through whatever prospects they've seen, plus video, plus what they've heard from scouts. It's all subjective, obviously, but if you prefer Kiley, or Law or Longenhagen (or Callis, who I understand does a lot of MLB's) or their methods, then you have your favored ranking. For example, both Law and MLB ding the Sox for lack of starting pitching prospects who project to be more than #5s, which seems to be a more "both sides of the system = balance" perspective. Fangraphs is a straight-up aggregate of their perceived future value, which may be more coldly reflective of seeing these players as "system assets" and "currency for trades," and also fits nicely with a fantasy baseball keeper league outlook. Personally, I read them all, but invest the most consideration for individual players to the reviews on this website. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 17, 2023 14:23:52 GMT -5
I was thinking the EXACT same thing.. I usually expect it to be there reverse with him too (less respect for Sox prospects on his top-50 or 60 lists, more respect for the depth of the farm system as a whole).... Very confused by his rationale. And I'm also not sure where to find the #20 ranking from Law/The Athletic, either.. I realize that you and I have differences of opinion about Rafaela (which I was rather rude about, and I apologize for being so).. But Law had Rafaela in his top-50 in July, and BA had him out of their most recent rankings.. yet BA has the Sox organization at #5 overall, and Law apparently has them at #20. Just seems strange that with Law drastically higher than most experts on Sox elite prospects, he is so low on the system overall. Law heavily weights the lack of pitching in the system against the Sox in his overall grade, or at least his perception of it. I don't agree with it but if I squint I can see where he's coming from a little. Keith Laws math can’t make Sence. No way 4 in top 50 can equal 20th overall. Ironically fangraphs normaly havnt been high on the Sox. That said they seem to have an actual system. Rating the prospects by $ value max then adding that up to create a system total. There isn’t anyway I see this as less than a top 10. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 14:24:50 GMT -5
Does anyone have a link to this Law #20 ranking? All I'm able to find is that he ranked them 23rd preseason, not 20th. And but then he had 4 Red Sox in the top 50 midseason, with Mayer at #3, plus an honorable mention just outside the top 60, so it'd be weird if he had their farm ranked 20th now. I was thinking the EXACT same thing.. I usually expect it to be there reverse with him too (less respect for Sox prospects on his top-50 or 60 lists, more respect for the depth of the farm system as a whole).... Very confused by his rationale. And I'm also not sure where to find the #20 ranking from Law/The Athletic, either.. I realize that you and I have differences of opinion about Rafaela (which I was rather rude about, and I apologize for being so).. But Law had Rafaela in his top-50 in July, and BA had him out of their most recent rankings.. yet BA has the Sox organization at #5 overall, and Law apparently has them at #20. Just seems strange that with Law drastically higher than most experts on Sox elite prospects, he is so low on the system overall. I think this aligns with his go to catch-phrase is "I hate your favorite team.™" |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,777 
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Post by cdj on Aug 17, 2023 14:25:39 GMT -5
I was thinking the EXACT same thing.. I usually expect it to be there reverse with him too (less respect for Sox prospects on his top-50 or 60 lists, more respect for the depth of the farm system as a whole).... Very confused by his rationale. And I'm also not sure where to find the #20 ranking from Law/The Athletic, either.. I realize that you and I have differences of opinion about Rafaela (which I was rather rude about, and I apologize for being so).. But Law had Rafaela in his top-50 in July, and BA had him out of their most recent rankings.. yet BA has the Sox organization at #5 overall, and Law apparently has them at #20. Just seems strange that with Law drastically higher than most experts on Sox elite prospects, he is so low on the system overall. Law heavily weights the lack of pitching in the system against the Sox in his overall grade, or at least his perception of it. I don't agree with it but if I squint I can see where he's coming from a little. let’s say for the sake of discussion Law is correct in regards to the org’s pitching …with so many high upside position players (in his eyes) why does not having a ton of upper levels pitching matter *that* much in his rankings? You can trade them for established pitching. Our system has depth too, it’s not like it’s top heavy. Just a bizarre rationale. Like would he rather have an org that has 2 top 50 prospects if one of them is a pitcher? I think that would be quite dumb tbh |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 14:28:13 GMT -5
Law heavily weights the lack of pitching in the system against the Sox in his overall grade, or at least his perception of it. I don't agree with it but if I squint I can see where he's coming from a little. Keith Laws math can’t make Sence. No way 4 in top 50 can equal 20th overall. Ironically fangraphs normaly havnt been high on the Sox. That said they seem to have an actual system. Rating the prospects by $ value max then adding that up to create a system total. There isn’t anyway I see this as less than a top 10. This is my gut feeling, too, but I always stop myself when I think this - only because, there is no other system that I know well at all, though I go to about 10 games a year featuring Carolina League teams, plus a couple Durham Bulls and Charlotte Knights games. |
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