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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 12, 2023 15:36:00 GMT -5
The pitch modeling stats predict future ERA better than FIP, which does a lot better than ERA.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 12, 2023 15:36:30 GMT -5
Franchy has the most RBI’s by any Yankee in their first 7 games…ever.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 12, 2023 16:13:18 GMT -5
I don't love Dalbec playing short, except he can't possibly be worse than Kiké's been so at least that's a plus.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 12, 2023 16:18:49 GMT -5
Geez, we're like 3 games removed from the offense looking like a powerhouse and now there are all these catastrophizing comments about it. People overreact so much to the tiniest sample sizes in April. For the record here are Zips rest-of-season projected wRC+es for the starters:
Kiké: 102 Devers: 143 Turner: 124 Yoshida: 135 Verdugo: 121 Casas: 118 Arroyo: 97 McGuire: 97 Refsnyder: 112
These are probably a little optimistic, but you could knock ten points off each one and the offense would still look robust. And that's without assuming Duvall or Story come back.
The real high variance for this team is the starting rotation. That's where they'll sink or swim.
I’ve asked this question before and never received a meaningful answer: how accurate are these types of projections historically? How well did they predict the outcome for the Sox LAST year, for example? Is this just a case of making a zillion predictions and hitting on a small percentage as a matter of statistical inevitablily, or are they more meaningful than that? Because I happen to think the practice of predicting outcomes in a game with a million variables to be a fool’s errand. ZiPS is more predictive steamer and the other models, as far as I know. It's as good as it gets. Obviously no model is actually clairvoyant. But it's a lot better than, like, "this offense feels bad."
Having said that, and as I alluded to, it *looks* to me like it has kind of a high bias in general (and not just for the Red Sox). I don't know why that would be. But in any case it confirms that the lineup ought to be solid top to bottom, which seems to me like a useful corrective to the doomsaying after a couple of lethargic performances against what might be the best pitching team in the majors.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 12, 2023 16:24:49 GMT -5
Franchy has the most RBI’s by any Yankee in their first 7 games…ever. Ruth, Gerhig, DiMaggio...Franchy.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 12, 2023 16:38:29 GMT -5
Franchy has the most RBI’s by any Yankee in their first 7 games…ever. I WARNED ALL OF YOU
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 12, 2023 16:47:34 GMT -5
I've usually been an optimist for this team and the current front office but Bobby Dalbec playing shortstop like 12 games in is uh... not what I would have been hoping for Maybe he'll do great now that he has glasses and can actually see It worked for Ricky "the wild thing" Vaughn, so I dont see why it wouldn't work for Bobby Dalbec
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 12, 2023 16:48:57 GMT -5
Does anyone know why Yoshi was a late scratch?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 12, 2023 16:53:20 GMT -5
Franchy has the most RBI’s by any Yankee in their first 7 games…ever. Ruth, Gerhig, DiMaggio...Franchy. Which one of the above does not belong (feels like my kids third grade reading book)….
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 12, 2023 16:53:32 GMT -5
Just by how ass backwards the season has been going thus far, watch Bobby Bombs pick it better than anyone else tonight at SS than anyone else has all season.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 12, 2023 16:58:20 GMT -5
The least worse part of Bobby D. playing short stop is it puts Kiké back in CF. Baseball is a weird sport, I don't expect Bobby to stick at SS long term haha, but wouldn't it be something if he found his bat this time up.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 12, 2023 16:58:50 GMT -5
Does anyone know why Yoshi was a late scratch? Hammy. Cora said if it was later in the year he’d play through it but didn’t want to push it tonight
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 12, 2023 16:59:48 GMT -5
The least worse part of Bobby D. playing short stop is it puts Kiké back in CF. Baseball is a weird sport, I don't expect Bobby to stick at SS long term haha, but wouldn't it be something if he found his bat this time up. I would love for Bobby to go off but idk how to believe it a player who misses so much middle-middle
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 12, 2023 17:22:37 GMT -5
I don’t understand the lineup, I would much rather have Chang at SS and Bobby at 2B. This is just dumb.
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Post by manfred on Apr 12, 2023 17:23:41 GMT -5
Does anyone know why Yoshi was a late scratch? Hammy. Cora said if it was later in the year he’d play through it but didn’t want to push it tonight It is going to be later in the year if they get swept by the Rays.
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Post by manfred on Apr 12, 2023 17:25:58 GMT -5
Say what you want, but I’m still not worried about Franchy. We’ve always known he can hit home runs. But over longer stretches, can he *hit*? That remains to be seen.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 12, 2023 17:35:38 GMT -5
The least worse part of Bobby D. playing short stop is it puts Kiké back in CF. Baseball is a weird sport, I don't expect Bobby to stick at SS long term haha, but wouldn't it be something if he found his bat this time up. I wondered how long it would take for Cora to come to his senses and cure two problems with one move…..Hernandez in CF improves CF and SS. Dalbec came through the minors as a 3B. I do not see him much worse than Hernandez if that…
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 12, 2023 17:38:38 GMT -5
Say what you want, but I’m still not worried about Franchy. We’ve always known he can hit home runs. But over longer stretches, can he *hit*? That remains to be seen. ….and how many plays will he butcher on defense, how many unearned runs will he allow, and how long will it take for MFY fans to boo him back to the minors… I was pulling for him as a Red Sox player, but as a MFY I hope he strikes out every at bat.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 12, 2023 17:47:55 GMT -5
There's our big hitters against a rookie in his first start. Seems like the team has fared poorly in such situations the last few years.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 12, 2023 17:50:27 GMT -5
There's our big hitters against a rookie in his first start. Seems like the team has fared poorly in such situations the last few years. Jeez, this offense is just anemic right now.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 12, 2023 17:51:10 GMT -5
RIP nooooooo Bobby ((((
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 12, 2023 17:51:19 GMT -5
There's our big hitters against a rookie in his first start. Seems like the team has fared poorly in such situations the last few years. Jeez, this offense is just anemic right now. Just wait for the fire Fatse calls lol
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 12, 2023 17:51:34 GMT -5
Oh my...oh no.
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 12, 2023 17:51:36 GMT -5
Damn it Bobby
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 12, 2023 17:52:14 GMT -5
That steal is on Reese
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