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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 12, 2023 12:31:00 GMT -5
Garbage in, garbage out
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 12, 2023 12:32:48 GMT -5
Baseball reference has the Sox at 1.9% to make the playoffs. How is that possible?? After 11 games, I’d give the Tigers a >0% chance. Planes crash. Disease spreads. Who knows? But the Sox surely have more of a path than that. if you take this team, right now, as it constructed, the injuries, the performance, the team and individual stats, the competition....etc...etc....I don't know that is a stretch. Yes, there is a long way to go, but this true for every team. I would venture a guess that those factors are what is going into the figure and not so much projection (or force majeure events ) for the rest of the season. It will likely fluctuate when some of the ordinary things that occur during a season, including other teams misfortunes, and could very well increase substantially. But if I am right about this and it is more performance based to this point in the season, it makes some sense to me, sadly.
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art
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Post by art on Apr 12, 2023 12:38:19 GMT -5
Baseball reference has the Sox at 1.9% to make the playoffs. How is that possible?? After 11 games, I’d give the Tigers a >0% chance. Planes crash. Disease spreads. Who knows? But the Sox surely have more of a path than that. By the end of the year they probably won't have 6 guys in the lineup batting under .200.
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Post by wildsox on Apr 12, 2023 12:58:07 GMT -5
0% Stop the Franchy fretting. Instead, enjoy the tease the Yankee fans are getting…. and grab popcorn for when he starts flailing at breakballs again. Hahaha. This exactly.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 12, 2023 13:00:06 GMT -5
Geez, we're like 3 games removed from the offense looking like a powerhouse and now there are all these catastrophizing comments about it. People overreact so much to the tiniest sample sizes in April. For the record here are Zips rest-of-season projected wRC+es for the starters:
Kiké: 102 Devers: 143 Turner: 124 Yoshida: 135 Verdugo: 121 Casas: 118 Arroyo: 97 McGuire: 97 Refsnyder: 112
These are probably a little optimistic, but you could knock ten points off each one and the offense would still look robust. And that's without assuming Duvall or Story come back.
The real high variance for this team is the starting rotation. That's where they'll sink or swim.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 12, 2023 13:15:30 GMT -5
Kiké popup problem
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 12, 2023 13:28:37 GMT -5
I am still pissed about the Bagwell deal. The Lyle for Cater too. Do not forget Mario Guerrero, who none other than Toney Kubek predicted great things for, accompanied Danny Cater to Boston. Alas, .241/.278/.278 followed. Sigh, and folks think we have it bad now.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 12, 2023 13:33:19 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2023 14:01:52 GMT -5
Kiké popup problem His swing was off last season too (foul ball home runs galore!), and it seemed like his hip nearly exploding was the culprit. But maybe he just hasn't gotten his mechanics back to where they were in second half of 2021? (Or most of his career honestly.) His chase rate/walk rate have been solid, including last year. I'm still waiting for that moment on TV in the dugout where like he and Justin Turner are talking with a bat in hand, going over Kiké's swing, and something clicks. You'd think of all people Turner's probably the guy who could help Kiké out of his funk given their relationship and Turner's own swing development history.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 12, 2023 14:18:04 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday What did the 3 batters who took him deep yesterday think?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2023 14:23:39 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday What did the 3 batters who took him deep yesterday think? Do you have the link to the pitch modeling stuff for Whitlock? I was trying to find it
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Post by mantush on Apr 12, 2023 14:26:44 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday What did the 3 batters who took him deep yesterday think? They were sitting on the sinker. He couldn’t throw it down for whatever reason last night. His slider was actually pretty good. He got a few swings and misses on it. I can tell you that my entire section last night realized that every sinker he threw was high and in the middle of the zone. If we noticed it from behind home plate in the second inning, the Rays noticed it sooner. Part of me thinks the game plan was to leave the sinker up. I don’t have anything to base that on. I’m not a smart fan by any means, but it seems pretty weird he could hit his spots with the slider and the change up but not with the sinker.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 12, 2023 14:26:49 GMT -5
Fair question, and I think its development because how many guys now have we seen go elsewhere and suddenly figure it out? But to your point, I think it's a blend of both, and the same guys who are responsible for talent evaluation are the same guys involved in developing that talent so it's a vicious cycle. Won't Franchy be a good test case!? Multiple chances here, goes to mfy and starts bashing. If he keeps it up, fingers have to point to how we develop/prep our players for the bigs. Disagree. One player can't prove a trend. If it works out maybe Franchy deserves the credit? What about Reese McGuire, does that prove the opposite? Broader point - no team is going to be able to unlock the max potential of every player, it's really hard.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 12, 2023 14:27:23 GMT -5
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briam
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Post by briam on Apr 12, 2023 14:46:18 GMT -5
Bob is actually starting at short stop. What a time to be alive.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2023 14:47:32 GMT -5
I've usually been an optimist for this team and the current front office but Bobby Dalbec playing shortstop like 12 games in is uh... not what I would have been hoping for
Maybe he'll do great now that he has glasses and can actually see
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 12, 2023 14:56:09 GMT -5
All RHH against Sale Bobby’s going to get his work in
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 12, 2023 14:58:50 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday What did the 3 batters who took him deep yesterday think? They agreed that he did a great job.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 12, 2023 15:02:04 GMT -5
Kiké popup problem If I recall correctly he was doing this a ton last year too
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 12, 2023 15:04:32 GMT -5
I would simply not start Bobby Dalbec at shortstop against a team featuring all right handed batters and a right handed pitcher that throws 98.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 12, 2023 15:06:31 GMT -5
I've usually been an optimist for this team and the current front office but Bobby Dalbec playing shortstop like 12 games in is uh... not what I would have been hoping for Maybe he'll do great now that he has glasses and can actually see Is it weird that I saw him in the lineup at SS with Kiké at CF and Chang at 2B and was instantly really excited about it? He had two of the best at bats of any Sox hitter in the game yesterday, and he's had hot streaks in his career. I could almost believe that he couldn't pick up spin without the goggles and will now turn into Mike Trout.
And plus, even if he sucks at SS, I doubt he's much worse than Kiké. Meanwhile having Kiké in CF again will be a nice boost for the OF.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 12, 2023 15:23:32 GMT -5
Geez, we're like 3 games removed from the offense looking like a powerhouse and now there are all these catastrophizing comments about it. People overreact so much to the tiniest sample sizes in April. For the record here are Zips rest-of-season projected wRC+es for the starters:
Kiké: 102 Devers: 143 Turner: 124 Yoshida: 135 Verdugo: 121 Casas: 118 Arroyo: 97 McGuire: 97 Refsnyder: 112
These are probably a little optimistic, but you could knock ten points off each one and the offense would still look robust. And that's without assuming Duvall or Story come back.
The real high variance for this team is the starting rotation. That's where they'll sink or swim.
I’ve asked this question before and never received a meaningful answer: how accurate are these types of projections historically? How well did they predict the outcome for the Sox LAST year, for example? Is this just a case of making a zillion predictions and hitting on a small percentage as a matter of statistical inevitablily, or are they more meaningful than that? Because I happen to think the practice of predicting outcomes in a game with a million variables to be a fool’s errand.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 12, 2023 15:25:24 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday What did the 3 batters who took him deep yesterday think? Ignore your lying eyes! The computer says he looked good. That’s what REALLY matters.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 12, 2023 15:28:45 GMT -5
I'm pretty much all in on analytics, but I can't in good conscious say a guy was good after giving up 3 HR. You can say the analytics point to him being better moving forward, but what actually happened was a dud.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 12, 2023 15:33:52 GMT -5
Pitch modeling thinks Whitlock was very good yesterday Look I don't mean to discourage you from posting this stuff as you've done so often so far this season (because I guess it is relatively interesting) but is it actually... for lack of a better word... useful? Like, is there a proven correlation between pitch modeling and results, or is it predictive in any way? I mean obviously it's easy to say "better pitches = better results" but based off of the sample of posts you've made on the subject it seems like it's clearly not that 1-to-1. I guess I'm just kinda indifferent on the pitch modeling stuff if they're still getting hammered. I think some of the responses you've gotten to this are a little troll-y but I think it's also fair to question whether or not it really matters.
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