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5/1-5/4 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by notstarboard on May 2, 2023 10:57:39 GMT -5
He was very clearly signed to be the #6 guy, in that 5 guys projected to be better. But we opened the season with 2, 3, and 4 on the IL.
They're about to decide whether Paxton makes his debut in his next start or the one after. If the former, he'll very likely take Kluber's next turn. Next week they have both Monday and Thursday off, and I don't think they want to give anyone 6 days rest, so it's quite possible that after Pivetta's start Wednesday, neither him nor Kluber even get a chance to start until May 14 (last game of the Cardinals series), when they decide on a 5th starter ... which may well be Whitlock.
(How do they make room for Paxton? Has to be Brasier. Whitlock? Who knows. Bernardino has been better than Bleier, so far, and Crawford has been the 3rd best pitcher on the team by xwOBA and 4th by wOBV.
If they decide to start Kluber again in Phillie's game 2, I'll redo the above ...
I hope they have Paxton start in Philly and cut ties with Braiser. It is time for both to occur. Cora has a tough decision to make deciding which starter goes to the bullpen soon, but with Braiser gone, there will be a need for a replacement in his slot. When Whitlock comes back, well, if he is not performing effectively, then it may be time to DFA Paxton. Wat
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Post by yuchangclan on May 2, 2023 11:10:54 GMT -5
He was very clearly signed to be the #6 guy, in that 5 guys projected to be better. But we opened the season with 2, 3, and 4 on the IL.
They're about to decide whether Paxton makes his debut in his next start or the one after. If the former, he'll very likely take Kluber's next turn. Next week they have both Monday and Thursday off, and I don't think they want to give anyone 6 days rest, so it's quite possible that after Pivetta's start Wednesday, neither him nor Kluber even get a chance to start until May 14 (last game of the Cardinals series), when they decide on a 5th starter ... which may well be Whitlock.
(How do they make room for Paxton? Has to be Brasier. Whitlock? Who knows. Bernardino has been better than Bleier, so far, and Crawford has been the 3rd best pitcher on the team by xwOBA and 4th by wOBV.
If they decide to start Kluber again in Phillie's game 2, I'll redo the above ...
I hope they have Paxton start in Philly and cut ties with Braiser. It is time for both to occur. Cora has a tough decision to make deciding which starter goes to the bullpen soon, but with Braiser gone, there will be a need for a replacement in his slot. When Whitlock comes back, well, if he is not performing effectively, then it may be time to DFA Paxton. Whitlock needs to go back the the bullpen. He went from being one of the best set-up men in the game to a fringe 5th starter almost overnight. I’m not sure how much injuries were a factor in this, but he’s just been so underwhelming as a starter IMO. As for Paxton, I am expecting Kluber-esque numbers from him. I doubt he will be much of a factor.
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 11:22:03 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term.
I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size?
Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength?
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on May 2, 2023 11:24:21 GMT -5
As for Paxton, I am expecting Kluber-esque numbers from him. I doubt he will be much of a factor. I’m curious, why would you think that? I mean, Paxton’s velocity has been 95-97 mph in his rehabs while Kluber throws an 88 mph sinker with mediocre movement. Those 2 things aren’t similar. I think people forget how an awesome pitcher Paxton is when healthy.
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Post by patford on May 2, 2023 11:28:45 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? It's terribly unfortunate but odds are Whitlock is going to need a second Tommy John surgery so it really does not matter what people think of him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 2, 2023 11:31:48 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? They do because they tie the injuries he has in with him being a starter as in he got injured because he cant handle the rigors of starting and the anecdotal evidence appears to support it. He got injured as a minor league starter and then last year and again this year, so I understand that point of view That said, I'm not 100 percent convinced he wouldnt still have had those injuries as a reliever. I seem to recall him getting injured just before the end of the 2021 season before coming back the final weekend, as a reliever. He might just be a guy who is often injured no matter which role he's in. Me, personally, I'd keep him as a starter and see if he can finally stay healthy, but I do have an understanding why others would feel differently, and it's reasonable to feel that way
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 2, 2023 11:31:53 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? It’s unfathomable to me that it’s unfathomable to others why people would want this. No one here thinks that he’s incapable of pitching well as a starter, it’s that there is plenty of (reasonable) doubt that he is durable enough to do it over the course of a full season. I’ve been a longtime Whitlock to the pen guy and honestly the durability concerns have gotten to the point where I’ve come full circle and am now on board with starting him because it seems like either way he’s going to get hurt, so might as well maximize his value when he’s available. But still, I think both arguments at least make some sort of sense, so to say it’s unfathomable seems a bit extreme.
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 11:32:00 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? It's terribly unfortunate but odds are Whitlock is going to need a second Tommy John surgery so it really does not matter what people think of him. What a fun little thought to throw out there without citation or justification.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 2, 2023 11:33:35 GMT -5
Whitlock has an injury that does not typically lead to TJS and he has specifically said he's not worried about TJS.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on May 2, 2023 11:34:15 GMT -5
I hope they have Paxton start in Philly and cut ties with Braiser. It is time for both to occur. Cora has a tough decision to make deciding which starter goes to the bullpen soon, but with Braiser gone, there will be a need for a replacement in his slot. When Whitlock comes back, well, if he is not performing effectively, then it may be time to DFA Paxton. Wat It is a viable option to do so if he is not performing in his 1st 2-3 starts. Low amount of suncken salary. Hope not, but at some point it may be time to call the experiment done, especially as the choices of who does go become more consequential.
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 11:34:33 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? They do because they tie the injuries he has in with him being a starter as in he got injured because he cant handle the rigors of starting and the anecdotal evidence appears to support it. He got injured as a minor league starter and then last year and again this year, so I understand that point of view That said, I'm not 100 percent convinced he wouldnt still have had those injuries as a reliever. I seem to recall him getting injured just before the end of the 2021 season before coming back the final weekend, as a reliever. He might just be a guy who is often injured no matter which role he's in. Me, personally, I'd keep him as a starter and see if he can finally stay healthy, but I do have an understanding why others would feel differently, and it's reasonable to feel that way That's fine, but it's not what was said in the comment I was responding to.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 2, 2023 11:36:33 GMT -5
They do because they tie the injuries he has in with him being a starter as in he got injured because he cant handle the rigors of starting and the anecdotal evidence appears to support it. He got injured as a minor league starter and then last year and again this year, so I understand that point of view That said, I'm not 100 percent convinced he wouldnt still have had those injuries as a reliever. I seem to recall him getting injured just before the end of the 2021 season before coming back the final weekend, as a reliever. He might just be a guy who is often injured no matter which role he's in. Me, personally, I'd keep him as a starter and see if he can finally stay healthy, but I do have an understanding why others would feel differently, and it's reasonable to feel that way That's fine, but it's not what was said in the comment I was responding to. Okay so amend my statement in my original reply to you to “almost no one” lol whoops
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 11:36:56 GMT -5
It is a viable option to do so if he is not performing in his 1st 2-3 starts. Low amount of suncken salary. Hope not, but at some point it may be time to call the experiment done, especially as the choices of who does go become more consequential. Is it sweeping conclusions based on tiny starting pitcher sample size day in this thread?
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Post by yuchangclan on May 2, 2023 11:37:44 GMT -5
As for Paxton, I am expecting Kluber-esque numbers from him. I doubt he will be much of a factor. I’m curious, why would you think that? I mean, Paxton’s velocity has been 95-97 mph in his rehabs while Kluber throws an 88 mph sinker with mediocre movement. Those 2 things aren’t similar. I think people forget how an awesome pitcher Paxton is when healthy. Fair question. I am not comparing Paxton and Kluber in terms of raw stuff. Paxton is definitely more of a power arm. I have a couple major reasons for expecting very little from Paxton when he returns: -He’s thrown 21 innings since 2019 -He’s mostly been getting rocked in AAA Assuming he’s healthy(and can stay healthy), there will be a lot of starts where he’s trying to “find it” this year(much like we’ve seen from Sale and Kluber). So he might have one promising start and then 2-3 where he’s brutal. I am not sure vintage Paxton is still in there, but we will see!
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 11:39:37 GMT -5
That's fine, but it's not what was said in the comment I was responding to. Okay so amend my statement in my original reply to you to “almost no one” lol whoops Right - I disagree with the view you/redsoxchamps outlined, but it is a fathomable view!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 2, 2023 11:42:00 GMT -5
They do because they tie the injuries he has in with him being a starter as in he got injured because he cant handle the rigors of starting and the anecdotal evidence appears to support it. He got injured as a minor league starter and then last year and again this year, so I understand that point of view That said, I'm not 100 percent convinced he wouldnt still have had those injuries as a reliever. I seem to recall him getting injured just before the end of the 2021 season before coming back the final weekend, as a reliever. He might just be a guy who is often injured no matter which role he's in. Me, personally, I'd keep him as a starter and see if he can finally stay healthy, but I do have an understanding why others would feel differently, and it's reasonable to feel that way That's fine, but it's not what was said in the comment I was responding to. Alright, so your point is that he doesnt suck as a starter. Agreed, he doesnt. He didnt dominate as a starter in the small sample size the way he did as a reliever in 2021 but that game against the Angels, to me, shows why he could be more valuable as a starter. A healthy Whitlock is capable of being more than a 5 and fly type pitcher as he went 7 against the Angels. I think he has more of that in him. If one thinks he's just a 5 and fly 5th starter type then yeah keep him in the pen, but I think if healthy he has more to offer than that but we haven't seen more than tiny sample sizes to conclude one way or the other.
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Post by yuchangclan on May 2, 2023 11:49:09 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? “Bullpen Whitlock” was a force on the 2021 team and was one of the big factors in that team’s success. “Starter Whitlock” vacillates between decent and subpar. What is his ceiling as a starter? Do you see a potential #1 or #2 in there? I’d rather have him impact more games in a role I know he’s great at than hope he can excel in a different role. There’s a long list of guys who tried(and failed) this experiment with Papelbon, Dan Bard and Joba Chamberlain among them.
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Post by cba82 on May 2, 2023 11:52:22 GMT -5
Is Valdez now our starting second baseman? Platoon with either Arroyo of Hernandez?
He’s won me over with his bat, and I’m counting on the Sox coaching staff to continue to work with him on his defense.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 2, 2023 12:00:40 GMT -5
Is Valdez now our starting second baseman? Platoon with either Arroyo of Hernandez? He’s won me over with his bat, and I’m counting on the Sox coaching staff to continue to work with him on his defense. I think the challenge here is that you don't want Kiké anywhere near SS, which would leave Arroyo as your only viable option there. Maybe start slotting in Kiké @ CF, DH'ing Masa and giving some rest to JT so Valdez can get more reps @ 2B? Alternatively, you can bench Casas to give him more time to figure it out and JT can man 1B.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 2, 2023 12:02:18 GMT -5
I’m curious, why would you think that? I mean, Paxton’s velocity has been 95-97 mph in his rehabs while Kluber throws an 88 mph sinker with mediocre movement. Those 2 things aren’t similar. I think people forget how an awesome pitcher Paxton is when healthy. Fair question. I am not comparing Paxton and Kluber in terms of raw stuff. Paxton is definitely more of a power arm. I have a couple major reasons for expecting very little from Paxton when he returns: -He’s thrown 21 innings since 2019 -He’s mostly been getting rocked in AAA Assuming he’s healthy(and can stay healthy), there will be a lot of starts where he’s trying to “find it” this year(much like we’ve seen from Sale and Kluber). So he might have one promising start and then 2-3 where he’s brutal. I am not sure vintage Paxton is still in there, but we will see! I think Paxton will surprise a lot of people. Give him a shot to make at least 5 starts w/ the big league club before we pass judgement.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 2, 2023 12:24:03 GMT -5
Fair question. I am not comparing Paxton and Kluber in terms of raw stuff. Paxton is definitely more of a power arm. I have a couple major reasons for expecting very little from Paxton when he returns: -He’s thrown 21 innings since 2019 -He’s mostly been getting rocked in AAA Assuming he’s healthy(and can stay healthy), there will be a lot of starts where he’s trying to “find it” this year(much like we’ve seen from Sale and Kluber). So he might have one promising start and then 2-3 where he’s brutal. I am not sure vintage Paxton is still in there, but we will see! 100% agree. I would add that Sale is struggling the way he is while having the long history of being one of the top pitchers in the league. Aside from 2017, Paxton has been (roughly) a little better than league average so I don't see the upside with Paxton. He's likely going to single-handedly lose a few games while he gets back to form and even if he does get back to 90-100% is his 4ish ERA going to be any better than who is already in the rotation? Seems like long odds on low upside and I'd have trouble bumping any of the current 5 starters for what he brings. Paxton has a career 3.59 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 3.52xFIP. If he gets back to 90-100% he's almost certainly better than at least Kluber and Pivetta. It's a long shot that he gets back to even 90% of what he was but as you said if he somehow can he's a good 3 starter.
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 12:28:38 GMT -5
It's completely unfathomable to me that people would give up on Whitlock as a starter after 16 IP. And this, after he had a 3.60 FIP/3.64 xFIP as a starter in 39 IP last season. It would be criminally negligent not to at least find out if he can be a starter long-term. I'm optimistic he can be a really good starter, but if he can't then lockdown reliever is not a terrible fallback option. But why on earth would you not at least test his ceiling - let alone after admitting that injuries may be a factor in why he's had trouble as a starter in this tiny sample size? Moreover - this bullpen is good and the rotation is very iffy! Why detract from a weakness to add to a strength? “Bullpen Whitlock” was a force on the 2021 team and was one of the big factors in that team’s success. “Starter Whitlock” vacillates between decent and subpar. What is his ceiling as a starter? Do you see a potential #1 or #2 in there? I’d rather have him impact more games in a role I know he’s great at than hope he can excel in a different role. There’s a long list of guys who tried(and failed) this experiment with Papelbon, Dan Bard and Joba Chamberlain among them. I'll put it this way: last season he had 39 IP as a starter and 39 IP as a reliever. He also had 0.7 fWAR as a starter and 0.7 fWAR as a reliever. But his FIP as a starter was 3.60 and his FIP as a reliever was 2.99. fWAR is based on FIP, but that resulted in the same WAR in each role because replacement level is a higher bar for relievers, since pitchers generally pitch more effectively as relievers than as starters.
So let's say he's capable of being a 3.60 FIP starter or a 3.00 FIP reliever; those seem like plausible projections to me. Taking the fangraphs replacement level calculation as given, he'd clearly be more valuable in the starter role because he'd be able to pitch more than twice as many innings.
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Post by notstarboard on May 2, 2023 12:37:03 GMT -5
It is a viable option to do so if he is not performing in his 1st 2-3 starts. Low amount of suncken salary. Hope not, but at some point it may be time to call the experiment done, especially as the choices of who does go become more consequential. I think a realistic floor for Paxton is a solid lefty out of the pen, but I think he is more likely to stick in the rotation. Bernardino has been decent, but keeping him on the roster over Paxton would be lunacy.
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Post by notstarboard on May 2, 2023 12:42:45 GMT -5
Fair question. I am not comparing Paxton and Kluber in terms of raw stuff. Paxton is definitely more of a power arm. I have a couple major reasons for expecting very little from Paxton when he returns: -He’s thrown 21 innings since 2019 -He’s mostly been getting rocked in AAA Assuming he’s healthy(and can stay healthy), there will be a lot of starts where he’s trying to “find it” this year(much like we’ve seen from Sale and Kluber). So he might have one promising start and then 2-3 where he’s brutal. I am not sure vintage Paxton is still in there, but we will see! 100% agree. I would add that Sale is struggling the way he is while having the long history of being one of the top pitchers in the league. Aside from 2017, Paxton has been (roughly) a little better than league average so I don't see the upside with Paxton. He's likely going to single-handedly lose a few games while he gets back to form and even if he does get back to 90-100% is his 4ish ERA going to be any better than who is already in the rotation? Seems like long odds on low upside and I'd have trouble bumping any of the current 5 starters for what he brings. Paxton's *worst* season from 2016-2019 was 3.5 fWAR. 2 fWAR is roughly average regular territory. He was a legit 1-2 starter when he was last healthy. That is the upside. Obviously he's a few years older now and coming back from injury, so we don't know how good he'll look yet. If he gets back to a normal place on the ol' aging curve, though, he will be a mainstay in the rotation.
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Post by incandenza on May 2, 2023 12:56:54 GMT -5
Paxton has a career 3.59 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 3.52xFIP. If he gets back to 90-100% he's almost certainly better than at least Kluber and Pivetta. It's a long shot that he gets back to even 90% of what he was but as you said if he somehow can he's a good 3 starter. That does not exclude 2017 as I stated. He's also fairly consistent in underperforming relative to FIP so at this point in his career that's just who he is and not an indication of a statistical anomaly. Maybe to be more precise - I view his 2018/2019 stats as his absolute ceiling. It's fine if you don't, that just my personal assumption. That's a best case scenario of a 3.79 ERA after he tanks 3-5 games so you're talking an aggregate 4.00-5.00 ERA if he pitches the rest of the season. I'm not bumping either Kluber or Pivetta for that. But to be more realistic, Bello is most likely the one getting bumped and there's no way I bump Bello for Paxton. If you throw out 2017 and everything before, his xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers are all in the 3.50-3.60 range. That's including his crummy small samples from 2020/21.
So that's a fun little stair-step journey you've taken: -Career FIP of 3.31. -But throw out 2017 and before, so really 3.50ish. -But his ERA tends to underperform FIP, so 3.79. -But this will be his ceiling rather than his average. -And he'll tank 3-5 games. -So his ceiling is a 4.00-5.00 ERA.
Conclusion: a guy with a career 3.31 FIP will be a worse starter than Pivetta.
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