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5/1-5/4 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
briam
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Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on May 3, 2023 9:55:52 GMT -5
Boston is 6th in position player fWAR, 4th in team wRC+, 5th in homeruns, and 3rd in wOBA. All with Casas being a disaster at the plate so far. Pretty darn good place to be with the potential for Casas development plus Story and Duval arriving in the next month or so. Even more amazing is that it's all without Devers hitting very well. At the beginning of the season, where would you have though the team's offense would be through early May if you knew Devers had a 111 wRC+?
Verdugo seems to have passed on the bad early season luck, "It Follows"-style, to Devers; he has a .200 BABIP. The xwOBA is fine (.370, compared to last season's .360), but the wOBA is only .339.
In his last 56 PAs he's hit .143/.214/.367 with a .105 BABIP - just 4 hits on balls in play (plus three homers).
Yeah, I think he needs a day to get off his feet and try to reset. His approach has been pretty brutal and he’s getting beat in the zone with a steady diet of fastballs. Kind of crazy to say but the offense would be fine without him for a day or two.
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2023 10:15:22 GMT -5
Even more amazing is that it's all without Devers hitting very well. At the beginning of the season, where would you have though the team's offense would be through early May if you knew Devers had a 111 wRC+?
Verdugo seems to have passed on the bad early season luck, "It Follows"-style, to Devers; he has a .200 BABIP. The xwOBA is fine (.370, compared to last season's .360), but the wOBA is only .339.
In his last 56 PAs he's hit .143/.214/.367 with a .105 BABIP - just 4 hits on balls in play (plus three homers).
Yeah, I think he needs a day to get off his feet and try to reset. His approach has been pretty brutal and he’s getting beat in the zone with a steady diet of fastballs. Kind of crazy to say but the offense would be fine without him for a day or two. I dunno... his walk and K rates are fine over that stretch. The power is there. He's always had some swing-and-miss, but his Z-contact is actually up slightly this year. I don't know if there's anything going on other than the bad BABIP luck.
His fly ball rate is up at the expense of his line drive rate, relative to his career norms; the line drive drive rate is only 10.5% whereas it's usually ~20%. That would hurt the BABIP of course, though not enough to account for all of the bab BABIP. That's the only anomaly that jumps out at me.
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Post by bluechip on May 3, 2023 10:23:48 GMT -5
Oh. No doubt it’s two homers and a great game. The NESN broadcast just kept talking about “at every other ball he’d have a 3 home run game.” That isn’t really true. Fenway’s dimensions are weird and it creates different results. That’s part of the charm of baseball. Toronto's broadcast talked abut how the wall gives and takes. Yes. He almost had a game with a unicorn and a reverse unicorn. If there is one stadium that is possible in, it’s Fenway.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 3, 2023 10:30:07 GMT -5
The Rays as a team have a 148 wRC+ on the season, that would have been the 8th best individual hitter in baseball last year. If you had a lineup of
Mookie Betts RF Juan Soto LF Manny Machado 3B Shohei Ohtani DH Carlos Correa SS Luis Arraez 2B Julio Rodriguez CF Paul Goldschmidt 1B Sean Murphy C
The current Rays would have a better lineup overall and could play a guy at every position with a better wRC+ than the 2022 edition of the counterpart I named above.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 3, 2023 10:37:02 GMT -5
If the Rays don't slow down I'm going to think there's some funny business going on down there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2023 10:42:02 GMT -5
If the Rays don't slow down I'm going to think there's some funny business going on down there. Was Chaim Bloom holding the Rays back? My column:
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Post by yuchangclan on May 3, 2023 11:02:08 GMT -5
Bloom is looking better and better and I hate to cast shade on a big win. However, since you brought it up, if you're watching the postgame on TBS you'd be listening to Pedro singing Dave Dombrowski's praises and how he'd go get a guy if the Phillies need it. I'm not a believer in Bloom until he shows he can play to win. That’s all well and great if they get a ring during his tenure. Otherwise he will just turn them into the Tigers and bounce That’s not totally fair. He built the Tigers into the best team in the AL. I’m still trying to figure out how the Sox beat them in 2013. They also fell short in other playoff appearances. But those were loaded teams. Dombrowski did pretty well to get young Verlander and Scherzer on the same staff. He just couldn’t get that bullpen in order.
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2023 11:02:37 GMT -5
If the Rays don't slow down I'm going to think there's some funny business going on down there. Fangraphs has a distinct tier of Bad Teams all projected to win 73 games or fewer: CHW, CIN, DET, KC, WAS, OAK, COL. Each AL East teams plays ~31 games against this group. Here's how many games against them each has played so far:
Rays: 19!!! Orioles: 17!! (with two more against KC in the next two days) Jays: 10 Red Sox: 3
Yankees: 0
There's been a wild divergence within the division for strength of schedule to date.
Incidentally, the Red Sox play 25 of these games in a 68-game stretch between May 30th and August 17th.
ADD: Wait, somehow the Rays play these teams 36 times but the Red Sox only 31 times? That's annoying.
It's 31 for the Yankees, too; 33 for the Orioles, 34 for the Jays. If I'm counting right. Which I'm probably not.
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Post by fenwaydouble on May 3, 2023 11:20:12 GMT -5
Boston is 6th in position player fWAR, 4th in team wRC+, 5th in homeruns, and 3rd in wOBA. All with Casas being a disaster at the plate so far. Pretty darn good place to be with the potential for Casas development plus Story and Duval arriving in the next month or so.
Verdugo seems to have passed on the bad early season luck, "It Follows"-style, to Devers; he has a .200 BABIP. The xwOBA is fine (.370, compared to last season's .360), but the wOBA is only .339.
In his last 56 PAs he's hit .143/.214/.367 with a .105 BABIP - just 4 hits on balls in play (plus three homers).
I think you might need to refresh your memory of that movie...unless you have inside information on a locker room romance I haven't heard about?
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2023 11:24:56 GMT -5
Verdugo seems to have passed on the bad early season luck, "It Follows"-style, to Devers; he has a .200 BABIP. The xwOBA is fine (.370, compared to last season's .360), but the wOBA is only .339.
In his last 56 PAs he's hit .143/.214/.367 with a .105 BABIP - just 4 hits on balls in play (plus three homers).
I think you might need to refresh your memory of that movie...unless you have inside information on a locker room romance I haven't heard about? Haha. Well... I didn't mean style in that sense.
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Post by yuchangclan on May 3, 2023 11:25:47 GMT -5
Bloom is looking better and better and I hate to cast shade on a big win. However, since you brought it up, if you're watching the postgame on TBS you'd be listening to Pedro singing Dave Dombrowski's praises and how he'd go get a guy if the Phillies need it. I'm not a believer in Bloom until he shows he can play to win. Making a sincere push to lock up Dugo would help my estimation of him. I want Dugo (well, a reasonably priced Dugo) to be a part of a big run I can see this team starting in 2025. After essentially taking 2 years off, Verdugo has finally resembled the player that he was in 2020. He looks like the potential all-star that we all saw in there initially. But I’m curious about signing him long-term. Aren’t he and Yoshida a bit redundant? I’m happy to have him for this year and next(at reasonable $$$, too), but they really need a RH power bat to balance the order out going forward. Especially if Duran is going to stick this time around.
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Post by melvinhoggs on May 3, 2023 11:27:57 GMT -5
If the Rays don't slow down I'm going to think there's some funny business going on down there. Fangraphs has a distinct tier of Bad Teams all projected to win 73 games or fewer: CHW, CIN, DET, KC, WAS, OAK, COL. Each AL East teams plays ~31 games against this group. Here's how many games against them each has played so far:
Rays: 19!!! Orioles: 17!! (with two more against KC in the next two days) Jays: 10 Red Sox: 3
Yankees: 0
There's been a wild divergence within the division for strength of schedule to date.
Incidentally, the Red Sox play 25 of these games in a 68-game stretch between May 30th and August 17th.
ADD: Wait, somehow the Rays play these teams 36 times but the Red Sox only 31 times? That's annoying.
It's 31 for the Yankees, too; 33 for the Orioles, 34 for the Jays.
I keep having to remind friends of this, but I do also hope that the Red Sox rotation has a massive leap forward left to take (and there's some worry that it won't) before that 5/30-8/17 stretch. Even terrible teams will put up a crooked number against struggling pitching and right now the Red Sox have a worse pitching WAR than over half of those "bad teams" you listed (oof), 7th worst in all of baseball. Here's hoping that the hot offense keeps them afloat until then.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on May 3, 2023 11:46:32 GMT -5
Making a sincere push to lock up Dugo would help my estimation of him. I want Dugo (well, a reasonably priced Dugo) to be a part of a big run I can see this team starting in 2025. After essentially taking 2 years off, Verdugo has finally resembled the player that he was in 2020. He looks like the potential all-star that we all saw in there initially. But I’m curious about signing him long-term. Aren’t he and Yoshida a bit redundant? I’m happy to have him for this year and next(at reasonable $$$, too), but they really need a RH power bat to balance the order out going forward. Especially if Duran is going to stick this time around. RH power bat to balance the order can be at any position. And shoot it’s not like Yoshida and Verdugo don’t have pop
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 3, 2023 11:47:10 GMT -5
Making a sincere push to lock up Dugo would help my estimation of him. I want Dugo (well, a reasonably priced Dugo) to be a part of a big run I can see this team starting in 2025. After essentially taking 2 years off, Verdugo has finally resembled the player that he was in 2020. He looks like the potential all-star that we all saw in there initially. But I’m curious about signing him long-term. Aren’t he and Yoshida a bit redundant? I’m happy to have him for this year and next(at reasonable $$$, too), but they really need a RH power bat to balance the order out going forward. Especially if Duran is going to stick this time around. Eh I see where you’re coming from but I don’t think they’re too redundant. Defensively, Verdugo is definitely a better defender and not to mention a better base runner. Also, his clutch ability is becoming second to none. I’m also not sure if there’s really any viable RH OF free agent options on the market over the next couple of years. EDIT: If both can hit LHP, then does it really matter whether they hit LH or RH?
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2023 11:48:26 GMT -5
Fangraphs has a distinct tier of Bad Teams all projected to win 73 games or fewer: CHW, CIN, DET, KC, WAS, OAK, COL. Each AL East teams plays ~31 games against this group. Here's how many games against them each has played so far:
Rays: 19!!! Orioles: 17!! (with two more against KC in the next two days) Jays: 10 Red Sox: 3
Yankees: 0
There's been a wild divergence within the division for strength of schedule to date.
Incidentally, the Red Sox play 25 of these games in a 68-game stretch between May 30th and August 17th.
ADD: Wait, somehow the Rays play these teams 36 times but the Red Sox only 31 times? That's annoying.
It's 31 for the Yankees, too; 33 for the Orioles, 34 for the Jays.
I keep having to remind friends of this, but I do also hope that the Red Sox rotation has a massive leap forward left to take (and there's some worry that it won't) before that 5/30-8/17 stretch. Even terrible teams will put up a crooked number against struggling pitching and right now the Red Sox have a worse pitching WAR than over half of those "bad teams" you listed (oof), 7th worst in all of baseball. Here's hoping that the hot offense keeps them afloat until then. Glass half empty: they won't keep winning if they pitch like they have to date.
Glass half-full: they're already getting better; even just excluding the first time through the rotation they're 19th in pitcher WAR. Since mid-April they're middle-of-the-pack.
Glass three-quarters full: they've done it without getting much from Bello, Whitlock, or Paxton..
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Post by yuchangclan on May 3, 2023 12:01:06 GMT -5
After essentially taking 2 years off, Verdugo has finally resembled the player that he was in 2020. He looks like the potential all-star that we all saw in there initially. But I’m curious about signing him long-term. Aren’t he and Yoshida a bit redundant? I’m happy to have him for this year and next(at reasonable $$$, too), but they really need a RH power bat to balance the order out going forward. Especially if Duran is going to stick this time around. RH power bat to balance the order can be at any position. And shoot it’s not like Yoshida and Verdugo don’t have pop Verdugo has switched into another gear this year, so he might finally put up some real power numbers. He only hit 13HR in 2021 and 11HR in 2022 in 600+ PA, however. Can he blossom into a 25-30HR guy this year?? He’s going to get mighty expensive if he can.
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Post by melvinhoggs on May 3, 2023 12:08:28 GMT -5
I keep having to remind friends of this, but I do also hope that the Red Sox rotation has a massive leap forward left to take (and there's some worry that it won't) before that 5/30-8/17 stretch. Even terrible teams will put up a crooked number against struggling pitching and right now the Red Sox have a worse pitching WAR than over half of those "bad teams" you listed (oof), 7th worst in all of baseball. Here's hoping that the hot offense keeps them afloat until then. Glass half empty: they won't keep winning if they pitch like they have to date.
Glass half-full: they're already getting better; even just excluding the first time through the rotation they're 19th in pitcher WAR. Since mid-April they're middle-of-the-pack.
Glass three-quarters full: they've done it without getting much from Bello, Whitlock, or Paxton..
Haha that half-full glass is very half-full, indeed. 19th is still bad, barely out of the bottom 3rd of teams – and excluding the first time through the rotation in a young season means excluding like 15-20% of their games. That being said, I do genuinely believe Bello and Whitlock have a lot more to offer (I'll reserve my judgment on Paxton) and if there's anyone who can let anger fuel their way through an up-and-down stretch, I believe Sale can do it.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 3, 2023 12:11:45 GMT -5
That’s all well and great if they get a ring during his tenure. Otherwise he will just turn them into the Tigers and bounce That’s not totally fair. He built the Tigers into the best team in the AL. I’m still trying to figure out how the Sox beat them in 2013. They also fell short in other playoff appearances. But those were loaded teams. Dombrowski did pretty well to get young Verlander and Scherzer on the same staff. He just couldn’t get that bullpen in order. . From memory, in three 2013 ALCS games against the Tigers, the Red Sox were no hit for the first 5 innings in 2 of the games and 1 hit through in the other. You are correct that in 2013 DD utterly FAILED in his bullpen construction!! The Red Sox are the proud recipients of that failure, and they have a championship trophy to show for it. DD got the big names, but failed on the back end of the roster. IMO, 2019 failure was that he burned out the starters in 2018 which caused injury and inconsistency in 2019. The 2023 Red Sox need injured arms to come back soon and fortify both the rotation and the bullpen, so that the bullpen is not complete gassed by July.
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Post by Guidas on May 3, 2023 12:43:23 GMT -5
It seems like the obvious trade deadline target would be Starting Pitching. Plus adding a reliable starter would be a 2 for 1 because then we can shift Houck/whitlock/paxton to the bullpen to add a reliable arm there as well. I went through the upcoming free agent list on MLB trade rumors and looked at guys who are currently on bad teams. These names stood out as possible targets: (in no particular order) Mike Clevinger Lucas Giolito Lance Lynn Jordan Montgomery Eduardo Rodriguez Obviously, what we would have to pay for them matters. Both in prospect capital and in just money considering the CBT. Are any of these guys players you would be interested in acquiring. Don't forget Bieber. No way Cleveland can extend him. He will be at max value for them at the trade deadline. Low chance they trade him, but they have some big arms in the minors and that Front Office group is all about value.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 3, 2023 13:10:34 GMT -5
It seems like the obvious trade deadline target would be Starting Pitching. Plus adding a reliable starter would be a 2 for 1 because then we can shift Houck/whitlock/paxton to the bullpen to add a reliable arm there as well. I went through the upcoming free agent list on MLB trade rumors and looked at guys who are currently on bad teams. These names stood out as possible targets: (in no particular order) Mike Clevinger Lucas Giolito Lance Lynn Jordan Montgomery Eduardo Rodriguez Obviously, what we would have to pay for them matters. Both in prospect capital and in just money considering the CBT. Are any of these guys players you would be interested in acquiring. Don't forget Bieber. No way Cleveland can extend him. He will be at max value for them at the trade deadline. Low chance they trade him, but they have some big arms in the minors and that Front Office group is all about value. I'm concerned about how Bieber's velocity and overall stuff has been on a downturn since 2020. I'd prefer Dylan Cease if he was available and give a hard pass on all the names listed by kwodes.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 3, 2023 14:07:29 GMT -5
Alex Cora must have been so elated to be able to go 6 LHB out of 7 in the lineup against a team that can't punish him tonight. Too bad McGuire isn't playing too.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on May 3, 2023 14:15:15 GMT -5
Verdugo Yoshida Turner Devers Duran Casas Valdez Hernandez Wong
gotta heat check Wong, I get it
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Post by tjb21 on May 3, 2023 14:16:32 GMT -5
The offense has been a joy to watch.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 3, 2023 14:21:05 GMT -5
Casas, take my strength. You’re the missing link kid
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keninten
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Post by keninten on May 3, 2023 15:04:40 GMT -5
That’s all well and great if they get a ring during his tenure. Otherwise he will just turn them into the Tigers and bounce That’s not totally fair. He built the Tigers into the best team in the AL. I’m still trying to figure out how the Sox beat them in 2013. They also fell short in other playoff appearances. But those were loaded teams. Dombrowski did pretty well to get young Verlander and Scherzer on the same staff. He just couldn’t get that bullpen in order. It was pretty much Big Papi.
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