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5/1-5/4 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 2, 2023 23:14:52 GMT -5
This edition of the Red Sox is very fun to root for. Wondering what it will take for more fans around here to give Bloom more of a chance and some respect. Short answer, more winning. Yoshida is looking great. Wong is looking great, right? Winck is looking great. Verdugo. Schreiber, Whitlock - amazing additions. McGuire - rock solid left-handed hitting catcher. David Hamilton may be able to teach people it was ok to let go of Renfroe or that trades cNt be judged so quickly. Ferguson and Rosier, Valdez and Abreu do not all have to be good but each potential MLB contributor makes it more likely one or more will really break through. Shane Drohan - exciting rising pitcher. Story, Duvall, Mondesi, Paxton, Rodriguez can come back and make the team stronger. And then there is Yorke, Mayer, Romero, Jordan, Bleis rising up in the system. I think Red Sox fans will really start to appreciate Bloom when our system matches up with Tampa Bay's but we spend wisely + abundantly to the luxury tax every year and consistently compete for championships, while reloading with impressive young talent. I am equally impressed by what Bloom has not done. No bad long term deals - provided Story gets healthy and Devers stays good for a long time. Ok, the Barnes deal sucked but he had been great and now he's gone. I understand this fan base needs instant gratification, so winning is the best formula for people to appreciate the work Bloom is doing. But there is 0% of me that wants to hear fan conversation about getting rid of him during or after this year. Let's keep building up a winning system and keep spending wisely, and the wins will flow. Beating the Blue Jays in this series would help and rising in the standings will help, but these Red Sox are fun to watch and I'm eager to see more fans come around. And I have often read it is the "anti" Bloom crowd that gets things riled up. LOL. Have it brother. I wouldn't care if it is Bloom, Dombrowski or Harry Frazee in charge when the boys win like this, they are the Toast of the Town.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2023 0:01:21 GMT -5
The depth and the platoon possibilities give them a chance to compete every game. It's been something they've admittedly had to do from behind given the wildly fluctuating effectiveness of the starting pitching. But done it they have. The offense is really good and it might even get better as players come off IR. Maybe the starters will catch up.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 0:13:17 GMT -5
I've finally found a succinct way to summarize a team's comeback / blown games performance.
A team can be said to be "winning" when their Win Probability hits 75% or above, and "losing" when it hits 25% or below.
Red Sox in games where they were winning at some point: 17-2 (.895).
Red Sox in games where they were losing at some point: 8-14 (.364).
Coolest thing: they have gone from winning to losing 5 times, and have now come back to win three times -- all of them in the last 14 games. In that stretch they are 3-1 in coming back and winning after blowing a significant lead (or runners on and outs made situation, like scoring a run and having men on 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the bottom of the first, as they had against Gray in the Twins game that ended with the Doogie walk-off).
And all the comebacks started immediately -- scoring 2 to tie the Twins in the bottom of the 10th before making an out, Turner and Masa going back-to-back to retake the lead against the Brewers in a span of 6 pitches, and tonight, slow motion in comparison after they got a run back without making an out, as it took them 3 outs to score 2 more runs and tie the game.
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Post by bluechip on May 3, 2023 5:48:53 GMT -5
Wong’s night: A different ballpark (eg Toronto’s home park) and he’s got only one homer, the one that in Fenway was a double. …..and Judge does not hit 62 HRs if he does not play in Yankee stadium…..he does and he had 62 last year. Wong hit two HRs in Fenway, which is two HRs in the book for him…. What if vs. what is. What is is what matters. Oh. No doubt it’s two homers and a great game. The NESN broadcast just kept talking about “at every other ball he’d have a 3 home run game.” That isn’t really true. Fenway’s dimensions are weird and it creates different results. That’s part of the charm of baseball.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 3, 2023 6:14:42 GMT -5
…..and Judge does not hit 62 HRs if he does not play in Yankee stadium…..he does and he had 62 last year. Wong hit two HRs in Fenway, which is two HRs in the book for him…. What if vs. what is. What is is what matters. Oh. No doubt it’s two homers and a great game. The NESN broadcast just kept talking about “at every other ball he’d have a 3 home run game.” That isn’t really true. Fenway’s dimensions are weird and it creates different results. That’s part of the charm of baseball. Toronto's broadcast talked abut how the wall gives and takes.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on May 3, 2023 6:31:44 GMT -5
Imagine when the SP stops allowing homers on 75% of their fly balls. Gotta think we’ll see them get a bit more luck eventually
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 3, 2023 7:17:20 GMT -5
A few days ago I would have told you all I would have been content with a series split vs. the Jays.
But after winning the first two games, looking back to traumatizing season we had last year and the struggles vs. the A.L. East and I'm really looking for a series win 3/4 4/4.
That would be a huge statement for this team.
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briam
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Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on May 3, 2023 7:45:59 GMT -5
Boston is 6th in position player fWAR, 4th in team wRC+, 5th in homeruns, and 3rd in wOBA. All with Casas being a disaster at the plate so far. Pretty darn good place to be with the potential for Casas development plus Story and Duval arriving in the next month or so.
Yoshida is somehow only .4 WAR. Has he really been that much of a disaster in the field and on the bases? The only blunder I can think of is getting thrown out by a mile trying to stretch a Fenway monster single.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on May 3, 2023 7:54:54 GMT -5
I’ve seen the Sox play worse defensive LF’ers. He’s not going to cover much range but he makes the plays he should make imo
He’s definitely not good defensively but it’s not in an embarrassing way
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on May 3, 2023 8:06:50 GMT -5
I’ve seen the Sox play worse defensive LF’ers. He’s not going to cover much range but he makes the plays he should make imo He’s definitely not good defensively but it’s not in an embarrassing way He's solid but unremarkable and I can live with his RF when 1/2 his games are played in Fenway as long as he keeps hitting like this. I mean, not for nothing, but we all lived with X's defense which up until last year was pretty terrible statistically in any of the advanced metrics because he made the plays he was supposed to and rarely threw the ball away.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 3, 2023 8:07:58 GMT -5
The lowest WAR in the league currently belongs to....Jose Abreu. Two more years at $20 million a piece to go for the 36 year old.
Dodged a bullet there.
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Post by cba82 on May 3, 2023 8:16:29 GMT -5
Manoah tonight for Toronto. Hope we thump him.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on May 3, 2023 8:17:10 GMT -5
Manoah tonight for Toronto. Hope we thump him. now THAT would be a statement
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on May 3, 2023 8:19:55 GMT -5
Manoah tonight for Toronto. Hope we thump him. now THAT would be a statement I hope he doesn't drill Verdugo..
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Post by notstarboard on May 3, 2023 8:24:45 GMT -5
Ignoring FA signings and prospects, and just focusing on guys who still have some of the team control that was originally traded away:
Verdugo: Arb 2 (FA 2025), 26 y/o, $6.3MM AAV, 137 PA, 148 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR Wong: Pre-arb (FA 2029), 26 y/o, $0.7MM AAV, 69 PA, 137 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR Winckowski: Pre-arb (FA 2029), 24 y/o, $0.7MM AAV, 22.1 IP, 2.58 xERA, 0.4 fWAR McGuire: Arb 1 (FA 2026), 28 y/o, $1.2MM AAV, 52 PA, 109 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR Bleier: Vet, 36 y/o, $3.8 MM, 13.1 IP, 3.81 xERA, 0.0 fWAR Pivetta: Arb 2 (FA 2025), 30 y/o, $5.3MM AAV, 24.2 IP, 5.87 xERA, 0.0 fWAR Valdez: Rookie, $0.7MM AAV, 24 y/o, 24 PA, 147 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR
Renfroe: Arb 3 (FA 2024), $11.9MM AAV, 31 y/o, 124 PA, 127 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Barnes: Vet, 32 y/o, $4.1MM AAV, 13 IP, 4.72 xERA, 0.0 fWAR Diekman: Vet, 36 y/o, $4MM AAV, 11.1 IP, 5.87 xERA, -0.1 fWAR
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Post by scottysmalls on May 3, 2023 8:26:32 GMT -5
If the season ended today the Red Sox would make the playoffs. 88/89 win pace.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 3, 2023 9:03:19 GMT -5
The team is so far better than what I thought they would be at this point. The rotation is still looking nightmarish overall. I don't know if the Sox can possibly trust Kluber Sale and Paxton. Yoshi has been great.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 3, 2023 9:03:54 GMT -5
Manoah tonight for Toronto. Hope we thump him. now THAT would be a statement Good name but overall he's kind of sucked so far.
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Post by kwodes on May 3, 2023 9:09:14 GMT -5
It seems like the obvious trade deadline target would be Starting Pitching. Plus adding a reliable starter would be a 2 for 1 because then we can shift Houck/whitlock/paxton to the bullpen to add a reliable arm there as well.
I went through the upcoming free agent list on MLB trade rumors and looked at guys who are currently on bad teams. These names stood out as possible targets: (in no particular order)
Mike Clevinger Lucas Giolito Lance Lynn Jordan Montgomery Eduardo Rodriguez
Obviously, what we would have to pay for them matters. Both in prospect capital and in just money considering the CBT. Are any of these guys players you would be interested in acquiring.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 3, 2023 9:15:39 GMT -5
It seems like the obvious trade deadline target would be Starting Pitching. Plus adding a reliable starter would be a 2 for 1 because then we can shift Houck/whitlock/paxton to the bullpen to add a reliable arm there as well. I went through the upcoming free agent list on MLB trade rumors and looked at guys who are currently on bad teams. These names stood out as possible targets: (in no particular order) Mike Clevinger Lucas Giolito Lance Lynn Jordan Montgomery Eduardo Rodriguez Obviously, what we would have to pay for them matters. Both in prospect capital and in just money considering the CBT. Are any of these guys players you would be interested in acquiring. If the goal is a postseason push, any of Chicago's starters are the last thing they should pursue
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Post by julyanmorley on May 3, 2023 9:24:32 GMT -5
I would be real surprised if they did anything significant at the deadline unless they went on a huge run and a top two seed was in play.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 3, 2023 9:27:36 GMT -5
It seems like the obvious trade deadline target would be Starting Pitching. Plus adding a reliable starter would be a 2 for 1 because then we can shift Houck/whitlock/paxton to the bullpen to add a reliable arm there as well. I went through the upcoming free agent list on MLB trade rumors and looked at guys who are currently on bad teams. These names stood out as possible targets: (in no particular order) Mike Clevinger Lucas Giolito Lance Lynn Jordan Montgomery Eduardo Rodriguez Obviously, what we would have to pay for them matters. Both in prospect capital and in just money considering the CBT. Are any of these guys players you would be interested in acquiring. If the goal is a postseason push, any of Chicago's starters are the last thing they should pursue I'll echo this, I'd maybe take a flier on Giolito depending on the health of the rotation come deadline time but Clevinger and Lynn are guys I'd stay far away from. Montgomery interests me, it'd be kind of funny to grab a guy the Yankees should never have dealt and he had some success in the AL East. I think the ship has sailed on E-Rod, just doesn't seem likely to me. As much as I'd love to add a top of rotation or even a solid middle of rotation guy, I'm not sure I see Bloom shelling out the prospect capital it'd cost to acquire that so I don't have my hopes up too high on a rotation upgrade unfortunately. More likely they try and pry a good bullpen arm or two away from a rebuilding squad try and bolster the pen even more.
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2023 9:43:14 GMT -5
Boston is 6th in position player fWAR, 4th in team wRC+, 5th in homeruns, and 3rd in wOBA. All with Casas being a disaster at the plate so far. Pretty darn good place to be with the potential for Casas development plus Story and Duval arriving in the next month or so. Even more amazing is that it's all without Devers hitting very well. At the beginning of the season, where would you have though the team's offense would be through early May if you knew Devers had a 111 wRC+?
Verdugo seems to have passed on the bad early season luck, "It Follows"-style, to Devers; he has a .200 BABIP. The xwOBA is fine (.370, compared to last season's .360), but the wOBA is only .339.
In his last 56 PAs he's hit .143/.214/.367 with a .105 BABIP - just 4 hits on balls in play (plus three homers).
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 3, 2023 9:51:06 GMT -5
The Red Sox are 12-6 since the Rays series against Bal, Mil, Min, Tor, Cle, and LAA. The main reason for the positive results has been the offense with an assist from the bullpen. IMO the starting pitching will come around as they currently have eight legitimate options to start (with the leftovers to assist the bullpen). This team still has a lot of the easier teams in the MLB to play. Barring major injuries this team could go far. I predicted 85 to 90 wins this year during spring training (not an unrealistic homer), because the quality depth and the fact that there are a group of minor leaguers that could take big step into the MLB.
I am glad Bloom has kept to his strategy, and did not go crazy on past their prime, LONG TERM FA contracts. I am glad the days of Hanley Ramirez and Pedro Sandoval are gone, and developing and trading for prospects that will be around for seven (and more years) is here. IMO Verdugo will get his contract and we will see the Red Sox holding on to more players (although most contracts will end at age 35 or 36). I am glad for those that had patience (and those that did not - we told you so!).
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Post by costpet on May 3, 2023 9:51:52 GMT -5
Funny how the sun is a little brighter, the grass a little greener, and the flowers a little prettier when the Sox are winning.
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