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5/5-5/7 Red Sox @ Phillies Series Thread
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Post by GyIantosca on May 6, 2023 22:17:36 GMT -5
So far expectations far exceeded. Looking forward to the rest of the season. Just think this is a holdover team. The kids there still waiting on. Can you imagine right now Kiké is playing short. Ok , now slide in Mayer. I Wow.
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Post by grandsalami on May 6, 2023 22:28:49 GMT -5
The AL east has been (for like 9 straight years) and continues to be the toughest division in baseball View: Which again. Is why i will go to my grave arguing to kill divisions entirely Total agreement but it'll never happen because the divisions create division races which are good for ratings and draw fans to the park. The balanced schedule pretty much killed those already. Just make it AL vs NL. and top ____ from the AL and NL make it to the playoffs. If that means that the entire AL east makes it and nobody from the WEST or central.. well. Tough **** You should have played better
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Post by melvinhoggs on May 6, 2023 22:33:13 GMT -5
Kiké last 15 games: .290/.323/.387 in 62 AB Kiké YTD: .234/.294/.355 Kiké OD 2021 thru 5/31/21: .239/.292/.400 Kiké 2021: .250/.337/.449 (109 wRC+) You are singling out literally the only good year Kiké has had in the past five years. Also, I don't know why people insist on cutting things up into tiny sample sizes when the sample sizes already aren't big – but it seems like you've picked a very arbitrary starting point, one that I think is still only good for a 83 wRC+ if I'm looking at the fangraphs splits correctly (which doesn't even include tonight's anemic performance). I'm very aware that it's mostly good news for the Red Sox right now – but Kiké ain't it and he's gotten a crazy amount of leeway for having a career year in 2021 and some big postseason at-bats.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 6, 2023 22:41:55 GMT -5
Kiké last 15 games: .290/.323/.387 in 62 AB Kiké YTD: .234/.294/.355 Kiké OD 2021 thru 5/31/21: .239/.292/.400 Kiké 2021: .250/.337/.449 (109 wRC+) You are singling out literally the only good year Kiké has had in the past five years. Also, I don't know why people insist on cutting things up into tiny sample sizes when the sample sizes already aren't big – but it seems like you've picked a very arbitrary starting point, one that I think is still only good for a 83 wRC+ if I'm looking at the fangraphs splits correctly (which doesn't even include tonight's anemic performance). I'm very aware that it's mostly good news for the Red Sox right now – but Kiké ain't it and he's gotten a crazy amount of leeway for having a career year in 2021 and some big postseason at-bats. As frustrating as Kiké might be, give him another month or so to try turning it around w/ the bat. And take comfort in knowing that he won’t be @ SS in a month or two whenever Story/Mondesi are ready.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 6, 2023 22:44:15 GMT -5
So far expectations far exceeded. Looking forward to the rest of the season. Just think this is a holdover team. The kids they’re still waiting on. Can you imagine right now Kiké is playing short. Ok , now slide in Mayer. I Wow. I literally can’t wait til we have Mayer @ SS by the end of next year as well as Drohan in the rotation. This team is just gonna get better and better.
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Post by incandenza on May 6, 2023 23:17:48 GMT -5
I see Kiké is this year's victim of Josh Taylor Syndrome, aka everyone thinking he sucks because of a bad first week or two of the season that keeps his overall stat line suppressed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2023 23:19:21 GMT -5
I just love the rule changes - 7-4 game, 8th inning already, only 9:30. Love, love, Love this! For years I would read the daily paper (or a mag) between pitches, while scoring every pitch. That started in '03.
I now just watch the game while still scoring. And it's better. The time I'd spend reading has just been collected together and moved to after the game! I never miss a pitch because I was still reading. The time between pitches is perfect for absorbing what just happened.
Biggest challenge to me was how to score the penalty balls and strikes. I settled on "A" (next to "B") for "automatic ball" and "T" (next to "S") for "too much time strike."
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Post by rhswanzey on May 6, 2023 23:43:34 GMT -5
Iâm singling out literally the only year Kiké has been both a starter and healthy.
I used the last 15 sample because MLB player pages offer splits for 7, 15 and 30 days. None of these are large samples. I kind of like those default splits listed side by side though, because sometimes when a player has a cold week, our recency bias kicks in and it feels like itâs been a longer slow stretch than it actually has been.
Do any of the sites allow for custom date ranges on defensive numbers? Kiké was really atrocious to start the year but it seems like heâs been more comfortable as of late. Thatâs the bigger concern than the bat and as someone else said above, there are other players coming back who will limit the time he sees at short.
I used 5/31/21 as an arbitrary two month cut off because I remember almost everyone being very cold on Kiké for the first third of the season, before he was on fire the rest of the way and in the playoffs. If I were just trying to make my point look better than it is, Iâd go through his game logs and set the end point as the day before whenever he had his first big game in June.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2023 23:53:49 GMT -5
Oh, he was a factor alright! Lol, that’s what I remember. You forgot the more important homer Kenley gave up in the 2018 Wirld Series. He gave up an 8th inning game tying HR to Steve Pearce in Game 4. After Robert's and Rich Hill miscommunicated, Moreland hit a 3 run PH HR off Ryan Madson to bring the Sox to within 4-3. Pearce's HR off Jansen made it 4-4 and then the Sox scored 5 runs in the 9th off other Dodgers relievers. Jansen was bad in the 2018 World Series. He was also bad in the 2020 World Series. He gave up a 2 out 2 run single to Phillip's that gave TB the 8-7 win. When the Dodgers won that world Series dave Roberts bypassed Jansen and had Urias go 3 innings to finish out the clinching game.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2023 23:59:53 GMT -5
Total agreement but it'll never happen because the divisions create division races which are good for ratings and draw fans to the park. The balanced schedule pretty much killed those already. Just make it AL vs NL. and top ____ from the AL and NL make it to the playoffs. If that means that the entire AL east makes it and nobody from the WEST or central.. well. Tough **** You should have played better So basically you'd have 15 teams where the only thing that matters is who finishes 6th and in and who finishes 7th and out. That's not better. Then if you do the plan you're talking about are you going to complain if the top 8 in the AL are better than the top 6 in the NL? Like, the Sox finished 85-77, but finished 7th in the AL and missed but the Cardinals finished 81-81 and made the final Wild Card. Not fair....if the Sox were in the NL....I can still see the kvetching. I'm not a fan of the 3 division 5 team set up, but finishing first should mean something, especially when you play your own division more often. The point is that it'll never be perfectly fair and even, no matter how you do it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 7, 2023 0:04:47 GMT -5
Overlooked in the AL East collective performance:
Games played within division:
8 Yankees 9 Ray's and O's 10 Jays 14 Sox
Record outside the division
21-4 Rays 18-6 O's 14-7 Sox 16-8 Jays 14-12 Yanks
83-37
That's .692 ball.
Meanwhile, the Central has played .382 ball outside the division and every team is below .500.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 7, 2023 0:06:22 GMT -5
The lineup they had today wasn't overly impressive, yet the offense swung the bars again and put up 7 runs. I missed most of the game but I did see Refsnyder's big hit. I knew Cora wasn't PHing Yoshids, that he wanted the guy to get the day off no matter what.
Arroyo had a nice game, too, and has been hitting lately. Tapia contributed again. And the bullpen was solid again. Kluber doesn't instill a lot of faith but he did enough in his 5 and five to earn the win
Hard to believe but that's 8 in a row, against good teams, and they're now playing .600 ball, with only 3 teams playing better than them.
That's amazing.
I do wonder/hope the Sox can find ways to win when their offense has days it doesnt function well, but fortunately they e had a consistently strong offense, somehow.
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Post by geostorm on May 7, 2023 2:47:19 GMT -5
this cracked me up when it went down. Papelbon. LOL Papelbon is still one of my favorites of all time. I was there when they clinched the division in 2007 and seeing him dance Shipping up to Boston was totally awesome me, too, Taiwansox!, along with one of my sibs...Yes, glad we hung around, post game, for the on field entertainment! That game was furthest along in a Red Sox playoff run, I've been to, live, and great memories.
(had a ticket, for a WS Game 7, Halloween 2013, mostly glad, didn't get to use, especially where they finally got by the Cardinals, for a ring!)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on May 7, 2023 4:19:21 GMT -5
Taijuan Walker's first 3 starts:
.275 / .298 (xwOBA / wOBA), 4.20 ERA. Opponents Yankees (23rd wRC+), Reds (27th) twice
Next (most recent) 3:
.429 / .445, 9.88 ERA. Opponents: White Sox (24th), Mariners (19th), Dodgers (9th). We're 4th.
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Post by pappyman99 on May 7, 2023 6:51:45 GMT -5
As far as Hernandez goes, people just need to understand 2021 was his outlier year. Please stop referencing that as something to expect him to bounce back to.
He probably plays another 5-6 years in the league and May one 1 more year like that and the rest will be like the rest of his years
He should be super utility that’s about it
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 7, 2023 7:35:19 GMT -5
As far as Hernandez goes, people just need to understand 2021 was his outlier year. Please stop referencing that as something to expect him to bounce back to. He probably plays another 5-6 years in the league and May one 1 more year like that and the rest will be like the rest of his years He should be super utility that’s about it As far as Hernandez goes, people just need to understand that 2022 was his outlier year. His injury-hampered wRC+ of 75 was his worst since 2016 when he only got 244 PA. I'm mostly kidding, but that's true. And 2021 was not his outlier year, but the lesser of his two outlier years, since his wRC+ 109 was a click or two worse that his 2018 wRC+ of 118. And if we're including part-time years like that wRC+ of 75 in 2016, you could also include his wRC+ of 132 in 218 PA in 2015. For the rest of this year, I'd expect him to hit near his career average of 96 wRC+, which means his total for the year would be less than that. And he certainly has the ability to have streaks where he hits as he did in 2021, or even as he did in his Kryptonian 2021 off-season.
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art
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Posts: 361
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Post by art on May 7, 2023 8:45:26 GMT -5
As far as Hernandez goes, people just need to understand 2021 was his outlier year. Please stop referencing that as something to expect him to bounce back to. He probably plays another 5-6 years in the league and May one 1 more year like that and the rest will be like the rest of his years He should be super utility that’s about it As far as Hernandez goes, people just need to understand that 2022 was his outlier year. His injury-hampered wRC+ of 75 was his worst since 2016 when he only got 244 PA. I'm mostly kidding, but that's true. And 2021 was not his outlier year, but the lesser of his two outlier years, since his wRC+ 109 was a click or two worse that his 2018 wRC+ of 118. And if we're including part-time years like that wRC+ of 75 in 2016, you could also include his wRC+ of 132 in 218 PA in 2015. For the rest of this year, I'd expect him to hit near his career average of 96 wRC+, which means his total for the year would be less than that. And he certainly has the ability to have streaks where he hits as he did in 2021, or even as he did in his Kryptonian 2021 off-season. His career numbers: .239/.314/.415. 2019 thru 2022: .237/.310/.406, including the outlier 2021. This year's numbers, .234/.294/.355, are actually better than last year's .222/.291/.338 and seem pretty much in line with a 31-year-old player on a downward glide.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 7, 2023 9:15:45 GMT -5
Peripheral to the thread but interesting. Statcast has a new metric: Catcher's Caught Stealing Above Average. Wong is right up there. atmlb.com/3LZ4zZD
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Post by julyanmorley on May 7, 2023 9:20:18 GMT -5
I don't think I have good feelings about calling Dalbec up to replace Arroyo.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 7, 2023 9:21:29 GMT -5
I don’t understand going Dalbec over Hamilton here.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 7, 2023 9:26:18 GMT -5
I would just burn Niko Goodrum and DFA him later. It's not like he's getting called up in August once Story, Mondesi and Chang are all possibly healthy.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 7, 2023 9:33:24 GMT -5
I don’t understand going Dalbec over Hamilton here. RHB
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Post by taiwansox on May 7, 2023 9:45:35 GMT -5
Papelbon is still one of my favorites of all time. I was there when they clinched the division in 2007 and seeing him dance Shipping up to Boston was totally awesome me, too, Taiwansox!, along with one of my sibs...Yes, glad we hung around, post game, for the on field entertainment! That game was furthest along in a Red Sox playoff run, I've been to, live, and great memories.
(had a ticket, for a WS Game 7, Halloween 2013, mostly glad, didn't get to use, especially where they finally got by the Cardinals, for a ring!) That’s awesome! I went with my whole family and watching the MFY lose to the Orioles made it that much better!
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Post by scottysmalls on May 7, 2023 9:47:06 GMT -5
I don’t understand going Dalbec over Hamilton here. RHB Is Hamilton that bad at defense? Dalbec as the backup middle infielder just feels awful
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Post by notstarboard on May 7, 2023 9:50:11 GMT -5
Cora, why tf is Raimel Tapia hitting third?
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