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The Rise of David Hamilton
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2023 12:12:54 GMT -5
Is the ceiling of a reserve utility player a touch pessimistic? That seems like a fair projection but a low ceiling given that he essentially leads all of minor league baseball in steals in 2022-2023, is a great athlete, and is really hitting the ball now (.311 ave, .955 ops) and showing improvements with his swing change. Based on this year, that ceiling seems low, which speaks to encouraging trends in the Red Sox player development system. Maybe it just gets into a definition of ceiling but can't you see more potential than reserve utility with his unusual speed, especially given the rule changes? As the old saying goes, 'speed never goes in a slump.' To your point cmax, I remember Billy Hamilton (ranked as the 14th best prospect in 2012) was praised to the heavens by John Sickles and other prospect prognosticators based upon his blazing speed and gaudy stolen base numbers. Unfortunately, he got the bat knocked out of his hands in the MLB and his speed was wasted as he rarely got on base to do any damage on the base paths. The elder Hamilton hit a robust 311/.410/.420 in 2012 (A+/AA) for comparison. On the one hand, Billy Hamilton still managed 11 WAR across 5 seasons from 2014 to 2018 despite a 69 wRC+.
On the other hand, that was with terrific defense which David Hamilton is unlikely to match.
On the third hand, David is currently hitting better than Billy did at any minor league level, and Billy only had an 82 wRC+ in AAA.
I'd think with a 90 wRC+ and passable defense, with his speed David could match Billy's career.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 9, 2023 12:25:53 GMT -5
To your point cmax, I remember Billy Hamilton (ranked as the 14th best prospect in 2012) was praised to the heavens by John Sickles and other prospect prognosticators based upon his blazing speed and gaudy stolen base numbers. Unfortunately, he got the bat knocked out of his hands in the MLB and his speed was wasted as he rarely got on base to do any damage on the base paths. The elder Hamilton hit a robust 311/.410/.420 in 2012 (A+/AA) for comparison. On the one hand, Billy Hamilton still managed 11 WAR across 5 seasons from 2014 to 2018 despite a 69 wRC+.
On the other hand, that was with terrific defense which David Hamilton is unlikely to match.
On the third hand, David is currently hitting better than Billy did at any minor league level, and Billy only had an 82 wRC+ in AAA.
I'd think with a 90 wRC+ and passable defense, with his speed David could match Billy's career.
They never really put Billy Hamilton into the outfield until AAA, and then he turned into an awesome one in large part because he was super fast. Not that we can just expect the same thing from our Hamilton, but it really makes me want to see him out there more often.
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2023 13:42:30 GMT -5
On the one hand, Billy Hamilton still managed 11 WAR across 5 seasons from 2014 to 2018 despite a 69 wRC+.
On the other hand, that was with terrific defense which David Hamilton is unlikely to match.
On the third hand, David is currently hitting better than Billy did at any minor league level, and Billy only had an 82 wRC+ in AAA.
I'd think with a 90 wRC+ and passable defense, with his speed David could match Billy's career.
They never really put Billy Hamilton into the outfield until AAA, and then he turned into an awesome one in large part because he was super fast. Not that we can just expect the same thing from our Hamilton, but it really makes me want to see him out there more often. Hey, if it worked for Jarren Duran... (I don't even know whether I'm being sarcastic or not.)
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Post by cmax on May 10, 2023 21:43:19 GMT -5
Not surprising that David Hamilton leads the Red Sox system in Stolen Bases, but very interesting and compelling to see that he is 2nd in the whole system in HRs with 7 (only Devers has more) and 2nd in Runs (only Verdugo has more, 3 more in 7 more games). David Hamilton is #1 in the Red Sox Minor League system in HRs, SBs, and Runs.
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Post by rhswanzey on May 10, 2023 21:53:48 GMT -5
Wouldn’t his arm be a problem out there, too?
Have we tried forcing this guy to be a RHH, because aside from handedness he is a perfect complement to Valdez at 2B.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 11, 2023 1:17:05 GMT -5
I Love this thread!
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Post by cmax on May 11, 2023 6:08:10 GMT -5
Hamilton's profile just doesn't seem to me like a guy who needs a super high exit velo to be valuable enough on offense. With his speed he's going to turn ground balls into singles and stretch extra bases on hits more often than most, he should outperform his xBABIP regularly, if he does get on base he's going to steal frequently, and he's walking at a healthy rate. Also, he's been getting hits - is it the feeling of evaluators that he's definitely been getting lucky? Plenty of MLB guys with batted ball skills that allow them to post consistently strong offensive numbers despite low hard hit rates and and exit velocities (ex: Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts, Thairo Estrada) - the dialogue on him makes me think people just think he's been lucky and I certainly haven't watched enough Worcester to have a strong opinion there. Agree it is interesting to know if the evaluators think he is just getting lucky. And how much do the evaluators and their #s consider whether speed has anything to do with that luck? David Hamilton currently is scoring in 22.6% of his ABs and about 20% of his plate appearances. Walking him is not too different from giving up a double or even a triple. (And doesn't it make you anxious just thinking about pitching with him on base + a pitch clock + limited pick off attempts?) Scoring in 20% of plate appearances is efficient offense and real value considering sometimes he gets up with 2 outs. Runs Scored is an imperfect stat because you benefit so much from who hits after you and when you get up in an inning. But Runs Scored is also such an important stat because Runs determine winning. Speed creates good luck, especially when belonging to a smart player. What is the best stat on Expected Runs Scored? Feels like that should be the Ty Cobb or Rickey Henderson stat. As I believe David Hamilton is increasingly becoming the most likely person to score per at bat in the Red Sox system (Nick Yorke has an even higher rate but Portland's surrounding offense also seems better). Only Verdugo has more Runs than Hamilton, but only 3 more in 30 more PAs. Hamilton scores every 5 plate appearances. If the point of offense is to score runs, I'm excited about the player(s) with the best chance to score per plate appearance.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,003
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Post by jimoh on May 11, 2023 6:41:53 GMT -5
For thread titles , etc. "David Lewis Hamilton" has the same metrical shape as "Alexander Hamilton"
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 11, 2023 9:07:21 GMT -5
Wouldn’t his arm be a problem out there, too? Have we tried forcing this guy to be a RHH, because aside from handedness he is a perfect complement to Valdez at 2B. I don't think taking a speed guy and moving him to the right side of the plate would be the move to make. (Understood that you're kidding)
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Post by e on May 19, 2023 4:49:11 GMT -5
I'll preface this saying I really like Hamilton as a prospect, but something interesting I noticed:
Home: .310/.394/.644 with 7 homers
Away: .211/.303/.368 with 2 homers
I remember hearing when Polar Park first opened that balls were flying out of right field like crazy(correct me if I'm wrong). I'm sure Hamilton has made some power gains, but it may be overstated due to how well his swing fits the park.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 2, 2023 19:31:28 GMT -5
I’ve liked the quality of Hamilton’s at bats early, even though he’s overmatched right now. Also, easy to see why Ian has said he’s not a SS. A ton of effort to throw the ball across the Diamond and always looks like he’s in a hurry
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Post by cmax on Jul 2, 2023 20:39:18 GMT -5
Agreed, wkdbigsoxfan. And it is fun when Hamilton gets on base. Will be interesting to see if he can be a valuable 2nd base platoon this year with the best of Arroyo/Hernandez/Reyes when Story is back and at short. It wouldn't surprise me if Hamilton starts hitting at this level, especially when some of the SS pressure comes off, though it may take at least as long as Duran and he may not be able to get too much of a chance to figure it out this year. Could also see him contributing to wins in a meaningful way down the stretch this year - and in the playoffs - as a pinch runner, while he gets more comfortable at the plate.
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Post by cmax on May 30, 2024 11:06:26 GMT -5
David Hamilton has hit .311 with a .380 obp and .869 ops with 6 steals (in 6 attempts) in May. His fielding percentage is also now higher for the season than Story's when he got hurt. A promising development for sure to see Hamilton begin to emerge...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 1, 2024 1:21:29 GMT -5
Strikes me more as a kid who needed to get some MLB success for the game to start slowing down for him, on both sides of the ball, rather than just another AAAA guy. I've liked him since the trade. Hope he keeps it up.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 1, 2024 2:43:43 GMT -5
There is just something extra special about speed guys. Always pulled hard for Hamilton won't stop anytime soon. LETS GO
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 1, 2024 8:31:58 GMT -5
Hamilton’s arm strength was the big area of concern at shortstop but it rates middle of the pack, well ahead of guys like Swanson, Seager, Pena, Volpe, etc. I think he might be a real shortstop.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,283
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Post by asm18 on Jun 1, 2024 9:38:00 GMT -5
ZIPS projects Hamilton for a 92 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR the rest of the season, which I believe would get him close to 2 WAR. Will try to not get ahead of oneself here, but what a dramatic shift for a guy who struggled to literally touch the bases to begin the year.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,673
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Post by cdj on Jun 1, 2024 10:50:16 GMT -5
ZIPS projects Hamilton for a 92 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR the rest of the season, which I believe would get him close to 2 WAR. Will try to not get ahead of oneself here, but what a dramatic shift for a guy who struggled to literally touch the bases to begin the year. Confident Hamilton may be a perfect winning team bench piece
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Post by cmax on Jun 12, 2024 16:54:31 GMT -5
Hamilton's profile just doesn't seem to me like a guy who needs a super high exit velo to be valuable enough on offense. With his speed he's going to turn ground balls into singles and stretch extra bases on hits more often than most, he should outperform his xBABIP regularly, if he does get on base he's going to steal frequently, and he's walking at a healthy rate. Also, he's been getting hits - is it the feeling of evaluators that he's definitely been getting lucky? Plenty of MLB guys with batted ball skills that allow them to post consistently strong offensive numbers despite low hard hit rates and and exit velocities (ex: Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts, Thairo Estrada) - the dialogue on him makes me think people just think he's been lucky and I certainly haven't watched enough Worcester to have a strong opinion there. Agree it is interesting to know if the evaluators think he is just getting lucky. And how much do the evaluators and their #s consider whether speed has anything to do with that luck? David Hamilton currently is scoring in 22.6% of his ABs and about 20% of his plate appearances. Walking him is not too different from giving up a double or even a triple. (And doesn't it make you anxious just thinking about pitching with him on base + a pitch clock + limited pick off attempts?) Scoring in 20% of plate appearances is efficient offense and real value considering sometimes he gets up with 2 outs. Runs Scored is an imperfect stat because you benefit so much from who hits after you and when you get up in an inning. But Runs Scored is also such an important stat because Runs determine winning. Speed creates good luck, especially when belonging to a smart player. What is the best stat on Expected Runs Scored? Feels like that should be the Ty Cobb or Rickey Henderson stat. As I believe David Hamilton is increasingly becoming the most likely person to score per at bat in the Red Sox system (Nick Yorke has an even higher rate but Portland's surrounding offense also seems better). Only Verdugo has more Runs than Hamilton, but only 3 more in 30 more PAs. Hamilton scores every 5 plate appearances. If the point of offense is to score runs, I'm excited about the player(s) with the best chance to score per plate appearance. I've been enamored with the potential value of David Hamilton's baserunning and dynamic qualities since he came over in the Renfroe trade and started to break some system records with SBs while the new rules have also begun to favor speed. As he gains confidence and contributes more at the MLB level, Hamilton increasingly looks like a key part of the emerging core. Since May 1, there is no player in MLB who ranks higher than him in both wRC+ (144, which is 37th in all of MLB and 2nd on the Red Sox behind Devers' wRC+ of 150) and BsR (2.1, 4th in all of MLB, 2nd in AL). If you go back two full months to April 13, there is only one player in MLB who has higher wRC+ and BsR than Hamilton. Who is that? Bobby Witt Jr. Tonight, facing a lefty, Hamilton is in the lineup but back down to the 8 spot in the order. Will be interesting to see if Hamilton sticks in the 2 spot more often against righties, or even gets a chance at leadoff soon. Duran and Hamilton, as two of the stronger combined wRC+ and BsR players in MLB this year, definitely bring a level of excitement. Side note - now we need Yoshida to find his groove, Casas to get back as himself asap, and to see some clutch hitting so this team can start scoring some real runs and picking up this overachieving pitching staff. Though I realize Hamilton's role for a championship caliber team may still most likely be more as a strong depth piece (which matters aka Dave Roberts 2004), still... Inspired by his recent performance, my dream today is that from 2025-2030, Hamilton twice leads the league in both SBs and Runs and that the Red Sox win two World Series championships during that span, while the farm and player development systems get even stronger along the way to set the stage for perpetual contention, more pennants and banners, and the ongoing ability for the Red Sox to claim the most world series championships in the 21st century.
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Post by cmax on Jun 13, 2024 7:18:38 GMT -5
Nice article by Ian Browne on Hamilton, and fun to hear from Duran another angle behind what we can see watching the games. Hamilton is inspiring and earning the respect of his teammates: “I love it,” said Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran of Hamilton. “The guy works his butt off every day. That's just the behind the scenes stuff that nobody else sees. But we all see it and he's always been a really hard worker and it’s starting to show, and it's so awesome to see.” www.mlb.com/news/david-hamilton-red-sox-make-comeback-vs-phillies?partnerID=mlbapp-android_article-share
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,140
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Post by nomar on Jun 13, 2024 7:46:41 GMT -5
His xwOBA is still only 31st percentile so I don’t want to go overboard. OTOH his low chase rate leads me to believe that his BB% will come up and bump that xwOBA up along with it. With the yips in the field behind him, he’s making it pretty clear that he’s a major league player. I was wrong about him for not getting why he was protected and for wanting off of the train through the miscues/weird mistakes early thisnseason.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 13, 2024 7:58:41 GMT -5
His xwOBA is still only 31st percentile so I don’t want to go overboard. OTOH his low chase rate leads me to believe that his BB% will come up and bump that xwOBA up along with it. With the yips in the field behind him, he’s making it pretty clear that he’s a major league player. I was wrong about him for not getting why he was protected and for wanting off of the train through the miscues/weird mistakes early thisnseason. Fair on the xwOBA and there is probably some regression coming but he’s also someone who seems likely to outperform his xwOBA to some extent
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 17, 2024 8:42:31 GMT -5
Hamilton now has more SB's than Jarren Duran, in approx 47% of the AB's.
I am guilty of overlooking him, much like I did Duran, as I found it hard to believe in a '1-tool-player' with the 1 tool being speed.
However, Duran showed what is possible at the plate and in the field with consistent year-over-year focus and development.
Hamilton's age may sound like a late bloomer, but when you factor in the timing of Covid and his achilles injury, his development timeline suffered major interruptions through no fault of his own. He could still have untapped upside on both sides of the ball.
The speed is truly game changing and I hope the Sox find a way to leverage it despite the MIF glut in the organization.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jun 17, 2024 9:17:56 GMT -5
Hamilton is now projected by ZiPS to finish the year with 2.2 fWAR, which matches Trevor Story's pre-season projection.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 17, 2024 9:20:16 GMT -5
I didn’t know how he was going to do but I do know we need a solid bench whereas in other seasons the bench kind of gets overlooked it’s very important for this team to have a solid one.
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