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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 30, 2024 16:48:43 GMT -5
Fangraphs has the league average LD% at 19.7% and Hamilton at 21.7% for 2024. Hamilton this year in MLB: 21.7% LD%, 36.5% GB%, 41.7% FB% Hamilton last year in MiLB: 23.3% LD%, 33.9% GB%, 42.8% FB% The numbers suggest there isn't much of a change in his batted ball profile, minus the fact he's hitting a lot more balls to center at the expense of going the opposite way. Considering defense is worse at AAA, why would you expect him to be 10 to 20 points higher than his minor league BAbip? Last year he was a bit unlucky at .297. This year he's probably been a bit lucky to be at .343. I'd expect his BAbip to be around .310-.320, which is about the halfway point between the 2 and his BAbip in 21 and 22. In any one given season, he might be able to run with a .343 BAbip. With a .315 BAbip. Hamilton's slash line would be .255/.306/.418. Factoring everything else, and it's a very serviceable player. Although looking at Hamilton's career numbers, the change in batted ball profile came last year. In 21 and 22, his LD% was <18%. I'm not sure how relevant those seasons are in any discussion about Hamilton. He doesn't hit a ton of GBs though. Xander Bogaerts is fast and hits a lot of ground balls. His career BAbip is .331, and was higher in the minors. Mookie Betts is fast and doesn't hit a ton of ground balls. His career BAbip is .306, and was considerably higher in the minors. Austin Jackson also hit a ton of groundballs. He has a high BAbip. Players aren't beating out flyballs and line drives for hits, after all. They are beating out ground balls, and Hamilton is not a GB hitter. I'm using batted ball numbers from Baseball Savant found here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-hamilton-666152?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlbI prefer to use baseball savant batted profiles over Fangraphs because the Fangraphs IFFB% tends to always be alarmingly high no matter the player, especially with minor leaguer stats. I also will continue to use savant when we're talking about things like sweet spot% and expected stats to keep everything on one site. My overarching point was line drives have the highest BABIP out of the 4 types of batted balls, and if he's running a higher line drive percentage in comparison to the rest of the league, his BABIP will likely also follow. It was more adding onto the previous point regarding him having an elite Sweetspot%, which also yields are higher BABIP. Also if Hamilton fell closer to Betts' BABIP rather than Xander's, it would still be .10 to .20 points higher than his minor league one which hovers right around .305. Considering you also said you would expect his BABIP to lay around .310 to .320, which is right around the range I suggested, I'm confused as to where you may disagree with me. Especially if we ended up coming to the same exact end point. I just don't know what you are comparing. Are you really using a 160 pitch sample size in the Majors last year to compare it to this season? That's what it looks what you are doing. That's what I have a problem with.
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Post by e on Jun 30, 2024 17:06:00 GMT -5
I'm using batted ball numbers from Baseball Savant found here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-hamilton-666152?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlbI prefer to use baseball savant batted profiles over Fangraphs because the Fangraphs IFFB% tends to always be alarmingly high no matter the player, especially with minor leaguer stats. I also will continue to use savant when we're talking about things like sweet spot% and expected stats to keep everything on one site. My overarching point was line drives have the highest BABIP out of the 4 types of batted balls, and if he's running a higher line drive percentage in comparison to the rest of the league, his BABIP will likely also follow. It was more adding onto the previous point regarding him having an elite Sweetspot%, which also yields are higher BABIP. Also if Hamilton fell closer to Betts' BABIP rather than Xander's, it would still be .10 to .20 points higher than his minor league one which hovers right around .305. Considering you also said you would expect his BABIP to lay around .310 to .320, which is right around the range I suggested, I'm confused as to where you may disagree with me. Especially if we ended up coming to the same exact end point. I just don't know what you are comparing. Are you really using a 160 pitch sample size in the Majors last year to compare it to this season? That's what it looks what you are doing. That's what I have a problem with. No I'm not doing that at all, I'm saying he is running 34% line drive rate compared to a 25% league average rate which will obviously lead to a higher BABIP than average. I wasn't looking at his batted ball profile from last year in the MLB, and I wouldn't compare Fangraphs' minor league batted ball profile to Baseball Savant purely because they are presented differently. My point was regression is to be expected, but if he maintains that type of line drive percentage with the elite Sweet Spot%(which the post originally replied to explained its correlation to BABIP), then I wouldn't be surprised if he maintains a BABIP. 010 to .020 higher than average. While writing this I also noticed I didn't add an important zero to where the BABIP could lie, so when I wrote 0.10 I meant 0.010. Maybe that's where you are confused, because obviously a 100 point increase in BABIP would be absurd. Again, we clearly came to the same conclusion when you literally wrote you would expect him to maintain a .310 to .320 BABIP.
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