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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2024 11:14:18 GMT -5
It’s Super Bowl Sunday and this team still doesn’t have a full rotation. Good thing they're not playing in the Super Bowl I guess Usually a point on the calendar where teams have their big pieces in place as pitchers and catchers report 2-3 days after SB.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 11, 2024 14:22:30 GMT -5
It’s Super Bowl Sunday and this team still doesn’t have a full rotation. Glass half-full, they have 3 guys slated for the rotation who had better-than-league-average results last season despite A) an historically bad defense, and B) what appears to not have been a particularly inspiring pitching coach… Pivetta - 4.04 ERA - 142 innings Crawford - 4.04 ERA - 129 innings Bello - 4.24 ERA - 157 innings MLB League Average ERA in 2023 - 4.33 Giolito - 4.88 ERA - 185 innings (new addition) Houck - 5.01 ERA - 106 innings Whitlock - 5.15 ERA - 71 innings A league average rotation in terms of results (as opposed to being 21st in starter ERA with 4.52 last year) seems achievable with the group as constructed? Of course, if you have a merely average rotation, you probably want to supplement it with a great offense and great bullpen - the latter of which may take a hit when you trade your Cooperstown-bound closer whose velo bumped back up last year to its highest levels since 2015 despite turning 36… Pivetta 4.66 ERA as starter, 3.07 while in bullpen, just like his other two years starting above 4.33 ERA.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 11, 2024 15:14:17 GMT -5
Good thing they're not playing in the Super Bowl I guess Usually a point on the calendar where teams have their big pieces in place as pitchers and catchers report 2-3 days after SB. The reigning Cy Young award winner isn't still usually sitting out there in free agency at this point either. Throw out the old standards
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Feb 11, 2024 15:49:20 GMT -5
Usually a point on the calendar where teams have their big pieces in place as pitchers and catchers report 2-3 days after SB. The reigning Cy Young award winner isn't still usually sitting out there in free agency at this point either. Throw out the old standards FYI the Super Bowl is much later this year than most its usually Feb.1 or Feb 2.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 11, 2024 16:43:08 GMT -5
Pivetta - 4.04 ERA - 142 innings m Pivetta 4.66 ERA as starter, 3.07 while in bullpen, just like his other two years starting above 4.33 ERA. I get your point here, but the issue with looking at Pivetta’s numbers from last year that way is Pivetta as a “reliever” more often than not basically meant, “Pivetta going 4-6 innings beginning in the 2nd inning.” Like take his 6 inning, hitless, 13 k gem against the A’s in July - technically that was a relief appearance. Does that not skew his bullpen numbers compared to being a starter? By the end of the year he was back in the rotation for real, and performing just as well. This was his last start of the year against the AL East champion Orioles: www.mlb.com/video/nick-pivetta-s-ten-strikeouts-x5752
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Post by incandenza on Feb 11, 2024 22:56:16 GMT -5
Pitchers and catchers report on Wednesday. Surely all parties have been using this weekend as a deadline and there will be a flurry of activity. Well it was a good attempt at manifesting, at any rate.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 11, 2024 23:30:33 GMT -5
Pivetta 4.66 ERA as starter, 3.07 while in bullpen, just like his other two years starting above 4.33 ERA. I get your point here, but the issue with looking at Pivetta’s numbers from last year that way is Pivetta as a “reliever” more often than not basically meant, “Pivetta going 4-6 innings beginning in the 2nd inning.” Like take his 6 inning, hitless, 13 k gem against the A’s in July - technically that was a relief appearance. Does that not skew his bullpen numbers compared to being a starter? By the end of the year he was back in the rotation for real, and performing just as well. This was his last start of the year against the AL East champion Orioles: www.mlb.com/video/nick-pivetta-s-ten-strikeouts-x5752Well, from May 21 to Jun 23, 2023, when his longest outing was 3 innings and he was pitching out of the pen, his ERA was 2.16. For what it’s worth. Also worth noting, that from Jun 28 to Sep 29, 2023, when he was pitching longer games from the pen and then starting his era was 3.35 and that this was arguably his most dominant stretch.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 12, 2024 3:01:17 GMT -5
I am going with this: his prior flashes of awesome were part of the process of figuring things out. At age 30 he showed that he has figured things out. He was ok to excellent for most of 2023, improving as the season moved on. The eye test and his projections pretty much agree on this so why not be excited in what could be his best (and contract) year. He won’t be the first guy who achieved his potential at age 30.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Feb 12, 2024 10:38:00 GMT -5
I am going with this: his prior flashes of awesome were part of the process of figuring things out. At age 30 he showed that he has figured things out. He was ok to excellent for most of 2023, improving as the season moved on. The eye test and his projections pretty much agree on this so why not be excited in what could be his best (and contract) year. He won’t be the first guy who achieved his potential at age 30. His recent success didn't come out of nowhere. He looked dominant at times since we got him, it just didn't stick for a full start (often came after a bad first inning IIRC) or for more than a few starts in a row. It's awesome seeing him become more consistently excellent.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 12, 2024 11:58:25 GMT -5
The Padres gave Jurickson Profar a major league deal coming off a last in baseball -2.0 WAR season
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2024 12:06:42 GMT -5
If the Padrea see Duran as a LF only doesn't Profar's LF only profile get in the way? Or is he such a low cost low performing option theyd just push him out of the way it platoon him with Duran should they acquire him?
In other words does Profar's signing impact a potential Duran trade at all? I wouldn't think so, but was wondering that.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 12, 2024 12:17:00 GMT -5
The Padres gave Jurickson Profar a major league deal coming off a last in baseball -2.0 WAR season Big news always happens immediately after Chris and Ian finish recording a podcast
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Post by wamderingdude on Feb 12, 2024 15:12:00 GMT -5
If the Padrea see Duran as a LF only doesn't Profar's LF only profile get in the way? Or is he such a low cost low performing option theyd just push him out of the way it platoon him with Duran should they acquire him? In other words does Profar's signing impact a potential Duran trade at all? I wouldn't think so, but was wondering that. Profar is absolutely not a starting caliber OF anymore and i don’t see why he would impact their interest in duran at all. The Padres have an outstanding lack of depth in the OF and that feels much more like a depth signing than anything else imo.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 12, 2024 15:52:03 GMT -5
I wonder if we're getting to the point where either Montgomery or Snell would accept a one or two-year overpay contract? There's risk in that - injury or poor performance - vs. sitting out and seeing if a team that loses a starter early jumps, or the price or years come down enough to make one or both more palatable.
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 12, 2024 15:56:14 GMT -5
There is no Way Boras or the players get more leverage on a long term deal once spring training starts.
Injuries in spring training can just lead to leverage for their asking price for 2024 specifically…..
At some point these players are doing themselves a disservice by not being signed
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 12, 2024 15:58:56 GMT -5
I had a post written out about how I bet they’re buying into Pivetta this season because his metrics are great and he’s always been a guy who has had high highs and low lows. If they can help him be more consistent then he has the potential to be really good. I managed to delete it instead of posting it, so instead of typing it all out again I’ll just leave this for the naysayers:
PivETTA ArriETA
The parallels are simply too obvious to be ignored.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 12, 2024 16:09:43 GMT -5
I wonder if we're getting to the point where either Montgomery or Snell would accept a one or two-year overpay contract? There's risk in that - injury or poor performance - vs. sitting out and seeing if a team that loses a starter early jumps, or the price or years come down enough to make one or both more palatable. I very much doubt it. As 31 year olds coming off a Cy Young and WS championship, respectively, it seems like a poor bet to think they'd do better next year. And they could surely still get 9-figure contracts or close to it tomorrow if Boras were just willing to say yes to whatever's on the table.
I do kind of think the market for those two might have peaked just before or after the Yamamoto signing, but at this point I don't think it'll get any lower than it is now. The only caveat there is that two of the teams that might still add significant payroll are the Cubs and Giants, and they might be in on Bellinger and/or Chapman, so you could imagine a signing of one of those guys limiting the market for the pitchers. But - funny story - guess who Bellinger and Chapman's agent is?
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Post by asm18 on Feb 12, 2024 16:40:41 GMT -5
"MLB Network’s Jon Morosi touched on Soler’s market this morning, r eporting that the 31-year-old is still seeking a three-year contract in free agency. The length of the pact has been a hold-up, as Soler has had teams willing to go to two years but has yet to be offered a guaranteed third season. The Giants were reported to be in talks with Soler last week, and Morosi suggests they’re among the teams comfortable at two years but balking at the third season. Other teams that have been tied to Soler this offseason include the Red Sox, Nationals and, to a much lesser extent, the incumbent Marlins. Soler himself said last month that Miami hasn’t shown real interest in a reunion, however." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/jorge-soler-rumors-three-year-deal-two-year-offers-giants.htmlI believe the reported offer the Sox were willing to go for Teoscar Hernandez was 2 year for 28 mil... Is that offer sitting on the table for Soler to take? Fwiw, Soler's contract projections from Fangraphs Crowdsource and the very detailed Tim Britton had him getting a 3 year deal. So it's not lunacy that he would hold out for that, even if a combination of a poor defensive profile and an inconsistent career is likely scaring teams away from such a commitment.
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Post by buffs4444 on Feb 12, 2024 23:48:36 GMT -5
Looking forward to the signing announcement tomorrow….
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 13, 2024 2:07:38 GMT -5
Booo
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 7:02:36 GMT -5
Damn. I think Soler’s bat was worth saying “screw it” and basically playing Yoshida in LF for another year, maybe two - but I get the difficulty of paying like a combined 32-35 mil a year for three years for a pair of should-be-DH’s, neither of whom are exactly Yordan Alvarez clones.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 13, 2024 7:48:11 GMT -5
3 years on Soler is a pretty easy pass for me, not upset at that one.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 13, 2024 7:54:59 GMT -5
I just don’t see how his track record justifies a 3 year deal. I want to see plenty of Abreu and O’Neill so it isn’t the end of the world, but the depth of bats is a concern for me.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2024 7:59:07 GMT -5
That sucks. I wanted Soler badly, but not enough to give him 3 years. Surprised the Giants went there.
Of course this doesnt do the Sox any good.
They wont do this but at this point I'd be all about bringing back JD Martinez.
So at this point, since they're not going to do that, and Pham, Taylor, Cooper, and even Duvall really dont really fill the bill as a true cleanup masher lefty killer you'd want between Devers and Casas, short of bring Martinez back, theyll have to hope O'Neill is the 2021 version (possible) and that Story bounces back to something in between his Colorado days and his 2022 Red Sox season as O'Neill would bat cleanup and Story 6th and he Cedanne Rafaela era might as well start with him in the 8th or 9th spot. Yoshida would become the DH pretty much and either a Duran/Refsnyder platoon in LF with O'Neill in RF or if they trade away Duran then O'Neill would be in left and Abreu would platoon with Refsnyder in RF. Either way while the defense would be better the lineup wouldnt be as deep and would lack the thump it should have had.
I wanted Soler badly but not enough to give him 3 years and am kind of surprised he got it. I wont hammer the Sox for not giving him 3 years.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 8:12:33 GMT -5
With Soler signed, you figure the only players left likely to sign more than 1 year deals are: the Boras 4 (Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, Chapman), Brandon Woodruff on a possible deal to rehab from shoulder surgery, and maaaaybe Lorenzen & Clevinger?
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