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2024 Free Agency
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2023 9:59:18 GMT -5
Am I the only one who wants Matt Chapman? Only 30 years old. Perfect hitter for Fenway. Devers/Casas at 1st/DH. Duran/Story/Devers/Chapman/Yoshida/Casas 1-6 would be a beautiful thing. Would love that glove at 3rd. Of course this is expecting JT leaves. Devers and Casas are both way too young to be getting the majority of their at bats at DH. It would nuke their value. If anyone is moving to DH anytime soon it would be Yoshida. Yeah I'm not even thinking value, I'm just not ready to move either to DH yet. Devers has shown the capacity, last year, to be an average MLB 3B. Don't treat him like a lost cause until he is. Casas doesn't even have a full season yet. Give him a chance to work out the kinks. People often act like a player's defensive ability is what it is and can't improve. Jarren Duran would like a word. Anyway, I like Chapman I just don't think there's a fit
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 8, 2023 10:03:15 GMT -5
I’ll definitely catch flak because I want to sell high on Duran
I’d like to sign Teoscar Hernandez for LF, and Kevin Kiermaier for RF. I’m resigning Duvall and bringing up Rafaela. Yoshida to DH. Give us a lot of versatility and good outfield defense.
I don’t think either would get large contracts. Or very long term I would say
Resign Martin for 1 year
I’m trading Duran for Gilbert
Trading Houck and Verdugo for another Gilbert like starter. Whitlock back to the pen.
Yoshida DH Urias 2B (good walk rates will have to be pitched to) Devers 3B Hernandez LF Casas 1B Story SS Kiermaier RF Wong C Rafaela CF
Bello Sale Gilbert SP (from houck / Verdugo trade) Crawford
Jansen Whitlock Martin Pivetta Bernardino Schreiber Murphy
Duvall McGuire Reyes Some cheap 1B/3B type
Feel like this avoids the long term contracts, and shores up the rotation and a good amount of defense. Bullpen remains strong
*** If Paxton accepts QO bump Crawford to pen ***
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 8, 2023 10:09:45 GMT -5
I’ll definitely catch flak because I want to sell high on Duran I’d like to sign Teoscar Hernandez for LF, and Kevin Kiermaier for RF. I’m resigning Duvall and bringing up Rafaela. Yoshida to DH. Give us a lot of versatility and good outfield defense. I don’t think either would get large contracts. Or very long term I would say Resign Martin for 1 year I’m trading Duran for Gilbert Trading Houck and Verdugo for another Gilbert like starter. Whitlock back to the pen. Yoshida DH Urias 2B (good walk rates will have to be pitched to) Devers 3B Hernandez LF Casas 1B Story SS Kiermaier RF Wong C Rafaela CF Bello Sale Gilbert SP (from houck / Verdugo trade) Crawford Jansen Whitlock Martin Pivetta Bernardino Schreiber Murphy Duvall McGuire Reyes Some cheap 1B/3B type Feel like this avoids the long term contracts, and shores up the rotation and a good amount of defense. Bullpen remains strong *** If Paxton accepts QO bump Crawford to pen *** Martin is already signed for next year fyi
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2023 10:13:33 GMT -5
Chapman is going to be 31 and is easily the second best position player after Ohtani in a very sad free agent class for position players. Someone is going to give him at least 7 years and probably a ridiculous AAV to go with it; if last year's precedents hold he'll probably get 9 years. Even if he fit the team's roster I would have zero interest.
Since his 30th birthday on April 28th, incidentally, he is hitting .226/.322/.401.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2023 10:26:40 GMT -5
I’ll definitely catch flak because I want to sell high on Duran I’d like to sign Teoscar Hernandez for LF, and Kevin Kiermaier for RF. I’m resigning Duvall and bringing up Rafaela. Yoshida to DH. Give us a lot of versatility and good outfield defense. I don’t think either would get large contracts. Or very long term I would say Resign Martin for 1 year I’m trading Duran for Gilbert Trading Houck and Verdugo for another Gilbert like starter. Whitlock back to the pen. Yoshida DH Urias 2B (good walk rates will have to be pitched to) Devers 3B Hernandez LF Casas 1B Story SS Kiermaier RF Wong C Rafaela CF Bello Sale Gilbert SP (from houck / Verdugo trade) Crawford Jansen Whitlock Martin Pivetta Bernardino Schreiber Murphy Duvall McGuire Reyes Some cheap 1B/3B type Feel like this avoids the long term contracts, and shores up the rotation and a good amount of defense. Bullpen remains strong *** If Paxton accepts QO bump Crawford to pen *** Duran/Verdugo/Turner->Teoscar/Kiermaier/Rafaela is a HUGE offensive downgrade, even if Teoscar bounces back to his peak form, which I wouldn't bank on at age 31.
That's also light on SP depth, and how the heck are Verdugo and Houck getting a "Gilbert" type of pitcher in a trade return? Duran wouldn't be enough for Gilbert either, for that matter. Unless you assume they're including Mayer, Bleis, and Anthony in the trades or something.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 8, 2023 10:32:00 GMT -5
Definitely not bringing back Turner next year as Yoshida should be moved to DH with Rafaella taking over CF and Duran moving to LF. 35 yr old Paxton not worth a QO. My offseason gameplan would go as follows:
Duran LF Verdugo RF Devers 3B Story SS Yoshida DH Casas 1B Rafaella CF Urias 2B Wong C
I would only look for significant middle of the order bats. Preferably a righty who plays CF or RF. Verdugo would be the guy heading out. Not seeking an upgrade at 2B base as Urias still has some upside and Mayer will need a spot in the infield (2B/SS) once he is ready.
SP Snell (FA signing) or possible trade for #1 SP Yamamoto (International FA signing) SP Bello SP Houck SP Crawford
Yamamoto makes the most sense to go out and sign given his age and upside. Snell makes more sense to me than Urias as a #1 and I think someone will vastly overpay for Urias. I'd also look to trade Sale who will only have 1 yr left on his deal but if thats not doable then he bumps houck or crawford to the pen.
CL Hader (FA signing, get your long-term closer for just money) SU Jansen (could look to trade him) SU Martin RP Whitlock RP Wink RP Schrieber RP Murphy
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 8, 2023 10:36:52 GMT -5
not interested in giving a reliever the deal Hader would require, especially since we’ve already seen him have a blowup year recently and know the potential for another is there. I’m fine with big AAV’s for high quality relievers like Kenley, they just have to be 1/2 years tops
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 8, 2023 10:43:10 GMT -5
I’ll definitely catch flak because I want to sell high on Duran I’d like to sign Teoscar Hernandez for LF, and Kevin Kiermaier for RF. I’m resigning Duvall and bringing up Rafaela. Yoshida to DH. Give us a lot of versatility and good outfield defense. I don’t think either would get large contracts. Or very long term I would say Resign Martin for 1 year I’m trading Duran for Gilbert Trading Houck and Verdugo for another Gilbert like starter. Whitlock back to the pen. Yoshida DH Urias 2B (good walk rates will have to be pitched to) Devers 3B Hernandez LF Casas 1B Story SS Kiermaier RF Wong C Rafaela CF Bello Sale Gilbert SP (from houck / Verdugo trade) Crawford Jansen Whitlock Martin Pivetta Bernardino Schreiber Murphy Duvall McGuire Reyes Some cheap 1B/3B type Feel like this avoids the long term contracts, and shores up the rotation and a good amount of defense. Bullpen remains strong *** If Paxton accepts QO bump Crawford to pen *** Duran/Verdugo/Turner->Teoscar/Kiermaier/Rafaela is a HUGE offensive downgrade, even if Teoscar bounces back to his peak form, which I wouldn't bank on at age 31.
That's also light on SP depth, and how the heck are Verdugo and Houck getting a "Gilbert" type of pitcher in a trade return? Duran wouldn't be enough for Gilbert either, for that matter. Unless you assume they're including Mayer, Bleis, and Anthony in the trades or something.
You are segmenting things. Im arguing 2 young cost controlled SPs, keirmaier, Hernandez and Rafaela is >>> then Turner, Duran, Verdugo, and Houck I don’t think it take much more than Duran for Gilbert same age, same 2023 WAR so far and I think Duran has more control? So yeah if it takes Duran, Drohan, and Valdez to get Gilbert I’d do that. I think a package of Verdugo, Houck, and Yorke can get you a very strong young SP So yeah, no trading Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, or Bleis
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 8, 2023 11:02:26 GMT -5
"selling high" is a term often used after a player has an unexpectedly good season, like Duran this year. But this only works if there's a team out there that is going to overreact based on a small recent sample (something fans do all the time, but front offices are going to be a bit more careful about) and offer a better return for him than the Red Sox value him at for the future.
This certainly can happen, but it can also happen for players who have average or bad years. "Sell high" really means "get more back than what you give up," which should be the objective in any trade you make.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 8, 2023 14:07:52 GMT -5
What are your plans for SP 6-9 if Kutter is handed a rotation spot heading into camp?
Keep in mind we have spent a month with a rotation of: IL to start year, IL to start year, very temporary #5 for two rotation turns to start year, ?, and ?
I wonder if they feel any of Murphy, Walter, or Drohan are options to start 10+ games midseason next year; I’m pretty sure they don’t see it. How are we going to get rotation depth onto the back of the 40? Kutter seems like far and away the best route for doing that.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 8, 2023 14:15:11 GMT -5
What are your plans for SP 6-9 if Kutter is handed a rotation spot heading into camp? Keep in mind we have spent a month with a rotation of: IL to start year, IL to start year, very temporary #5 for two rotation turns to start year, ?, and ? I wonder if they feel any of Murphy, Walter, or Drohan are options to start 10+ games midseason next year; I’m pretty sure they don’t see it. How are we going to get rotation depth onto the back of the 40? Kutter seems like far and away the best route for doing that. Depending on how the offseason goes the depth would be Pivetta, Walter, Mata, Drohan, Song. Another option towards the middle to later part of the season could be W. Gonzalez.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 8, 2023 14:21:08 GMT -5
not interested in giving a reliever the deal Hader would require, especially since we’ve already seen him have a blowup year recently and know the potential for another is there. I’m fine with big AAV’s for high quality relievers like Kenley, they just have to be 1/2 years tops Problem is, that approach will only land you older closers who will need to be replaced every couple of years. Hader is an intriguing option to me as he could be had for money and is a lefty. You get a long term closer and a shutdown lefty, both of which the pen needs. There could be options via trade but they would be costly. Bednar, Clase, Diaz (reds) come to mind.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 8, 2023 14:24:21 GMT -5
Duran/Verdugo/Turner->Teoscar/Kiermaier/Rafaela is a HUGE offensive downgrade, even if Teoscar bounces back to his peak form, which I wouldn't bank on at age 31.
That's also light on SP depth, and how the heck are Verdugo and Houck getting a "Gilbert" type of pitcher in a trade return? Duran wouldn't be enough for Gilbert either, for that matter. Unless you assume they're including Mayer, Bleis, and Anthony in the trades or something.
You are segmenting things. Im arguing 2 young cost controlled SPs, keirmaier, Hernandez and Rafaela is >>> then Turner, Duran, Verdugo, and Houck I don’t think it take much more than Duran for Gilbert same age, same 2023 WAR so far and I think Duran has more control? So yeah if it takes Duran, Drohan, and Valdez to get Gilbert I’d do that. I think a package of Verdugo, Houck, and Yorke can get you a very strong young SP So yeah, no trading Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, or Bleis Pitchers cost more than hitters because pitchers are much harder to find. Unless Jerry is really on one this offseason, I’d be stunned if Duran was all it took for Gilbert. You’re not going to get good, controllable starting pitching for a stack of stuff that you don’t care about giving up. You’re going to need to give up something that hurts.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 8, 2023 14:36:51 GMT -5
not interested in giving a reliever the deal Hader would require, especially since we’ve already seen him have a blowup year recently and know the potential for another is there. I’m fine with big AAV’s for high quality relievers like Kenley, they just have to be 1/2 years tops Problem is, that approach will only land you older closers who will need to be replaced every couple of years. Hader is an intriguing option to me as he could be had for money and is a lefty. You get a long term closer and a shutdown lefty, both of which the pen needs. There could be options via trade but they would be costly. Bednar, Clase, Diaz (reds) come to mind. Does it really matter if you have to replace your closer every few years? That seems like a feature of the approach, not a bug. I think the idea is that there’s likely to be a point that you want to replace Hader, too, but instead of having the flexibility to pay someone else, you’re gonna be on the hook for two more years and 40 million more dollars when that point comes. Because of how expensive closers are and how volatile relief pitching in general is, I think the best approach is to churn through Proven Veteran Closers on short contracts and hope that you can develop a relief ace who can take the job through his years of control.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 8, 2023 14:37:20 GMT -5
C Connor Wong 1.5 Reese McGuire .5
1B Triston Casas 2
2B Luis Urias 1.5 Enmanuel Valdez .5
SS Trevor Story 2.5 Pablo Reyes .5
3B Rafael Devers 4
OF Alex Verdugo 2.5 Jarren Duran 2 Rob Refsnyder 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 1
DH Masataka Yoshida 2.5
SP Brayan Bello 2.5 Chris Sale 1.5 Garrett Whitlock 1.5 Tanner Houck 1.5 Kutter Crawford 1.5 Nick Pivetta 1.5
RP Kenley Jensen 1 Chris Martin .5 John Schreiber .5 Brennan Bernardino .5
= 33 WAR, which is.a .500 team. With probably like $60 million to spend.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 8, 2023 14:40:19 GMT -5
You are segmenting things. Im arguing 2 young cost controlled SPs, keirmaier, Hernandez and Rafaela is >>> then Turner, Duran, Verdugo, and Houck I don’t think it take much more than Duran for Gilbert same age, same 2023 WAR so far and I think Duran has more control? So yeah if it takes Duran, Drohan, and Valdez to get Gilbert I’d do that. I think a package of Verdugo, Houck, and Yorke can get you a very strong young SP So yeah, no trading Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, or Bleis Pitchers cost more than hitters because pitchers are much harder to find. Unless Jerry is really on one this offseason, I’d be stunned if Duran was all it took for Gilbert. You’re not going to get good, controllable starting pitching for a stack of stuff that you don’t care about giving up. You’re going to need to give up something that hurts.The player development arm of building the next great Sox teams is producing results, but it will not in and of itself build that team. The trades that hurt are what will bring the whole thing together.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 8, 2023 14:40:59 GMT -5
You are segmenting things. Im arguing 2 young cost controlled SPs, keirmaier, Hernandez and Rafaela is >>> then Turner, Duran, Verdugo, and Houck I don’t think it take much more than Duran for Gilbert same age, same 2023 WAR so far and I think Duran has more control? So yeah if it takes Duran, Drohan, and Valdez to get Gilbert I’d do that. I think a package of Verdugo, Houck, and Yorke can get you a very strong young SP So yeah, no trading Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela, or Bleis Pitchers cost more than hitters because pitchers are much harder to find. Unless Jerry is really on one this offseason, I’d be stunned if Duran was all it took for Gilbert. You’re not going to get good, controllable starting pitching for a stack of stuff that you don’t care about giving up. You’re going to need to give up something that hurts. Yeah I get that, what I’m perplexed by is you thinking duran, Houck, Verdugo, Yorke + is a stack of stuff?
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ematz1423
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Posts: 5,346
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 8, 2023 14:47:07 GMT -5
C Connor Wong 1.5 Reese McGuire .5 1B Triston Casas 2 2B Luis Urias 1.5 Enmanuel Valdez .5 SS Trevor Story 2.5 Pablo Reyes .5 3B Rafael Devers 4 OF Alex Verdugo 2.5 Jarren Duran 2 Rob Refsnyder 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 1 DH Masataka Yoshida 2.5 SP Brayan Bello 2.5 Chris Sale 1.5 Garrett Whitlock 1.5 Tanner Houck 1.5 Kutter Crawford 1.5 Nick Pivetta 1.5 RP Kenley Jensen 1 Chris Martin .5 John Schreiber .5 Brennan Bernardino .5 = 33 WAR, which is.a .500 team. With probably like $60 million to spend. I like this way of outlining that the current roster/org does indeed have some good talent. I really do think if Bloom makes the correct moves this offseason this team can vault itself into being a true contender rather than just a contender for the 3rd WC spot. I would say though, this certainly seems a conservative prediction on some of the players. Ones that jump out in particular to me are Story and Casas but it's probably best to be conservative on this type of high level snapshot since some guys will come in under as well.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 8, 2023 14:55:23 GMT -5
Pitchers cost more than hitters because pitchers are much harder to find. Unless Jerry is really on one this offseason, I’d be stunned if Duran was all it took for Gilbert. You’re not going to get good, controllable starting pitching for a stack of stuff that you don’t care about giving up. You’re going to need to give up something that hurts. Yeah I get that, what I’m perplexed by is you thinking duran, Houck, Verdugo, Yorke + is a stack of stuff? Its definitely not nothing, but when I look at that group I see a collection of pieces we’d ideally like to upgrade. I don’t see a headliner in there—in other words, nothing that really hurts to give up. If Logan Gilbert is on the market then presumably other teams will be trying to trade for him, and I’m just unconvinced that Jarren Duran will be the best offer they get.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 8, 2023 15:06:13 GMT -5
not interested in giving a reliever the deal Hader would require, especially since we’ve already seen him have a blowup year recently and know the potential for another is there. I’m fine with big AAV’s for high quality relievers like Kenley, they just have to be 1/2 years tops Problem is, that approach will only land you older closers who will need to be replaced every couple of years. Hader is an intriguing option to me as he could be had for money and is a lefty. You get a long term closer and a shutdown lefty, both of which the pen needs. There could be options via trade but they would be costly. Bednar, Clase, Diaz (reds) come to mind. I’m not all that concerned about replacing a relief pitcher with relative frequency
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 8, 2023 15:06:56 GMT -5
Problem is, that approach will only land you older closers who will need to be replaced every couple of years. Hader is an intriguing option to me as he could be had for money and is a lefty. You get a long term closer and a shutdown lefty, both of which the pen needs. There could be options via trade but they would be costly. Bednar, Clase, Diaz (reds) come to mind. Does it really matter if you have to replace your closer every few years? That seems like a feature of the approach, not a bug. I think the idea is that there’s likely to be a point that you want to replace Hader, too, but instead of having the flexibility to pay someone else, you’re gonna be on the hook for two more years and 40 million more dollars when that point comes. Because of how expensive closers are and how volatile relief pitching in general is, I think the best approach is to churn through Proven Veteran Closers on short contracts and hope that you can develop a relief ace who can take the job through his years of control. You said it better than I could have
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 8, 2023 15:24:46 GMT -5
Yeah I get that, what I’m perplexed by is you thinking duran, Houck, Verdugo, Yorke + is a stack of stuff? Its definitely not nothing, but when I look at that group I see a collection of pieces we’d ideally like to upgrade. I don’t see a headliner in there—in other words, nothing that really hurts to give up. If Logan Gilbert is on the market then presumably other teams will be trying to trade for him, and I’m just unconvinced that Jarren Duran will be the best offer they get. I was more just trying to give a premise, But depends what the mariners want , prospects with no MLB experience are going to be worth less than a cost controlled OF that is about to have 3-4 WAR season Given the mariners current rotation they were going to want good mlb pieces playing now. Something like Duran, Pivetta, and Valdez could possibly get it done.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 8, 2023 15:40:36 GMT -5
C Connor Wong 1.5 Reese McGuire .5 1B Triston Casas 2 2B Luis Urias 1.5 Enmanuel Valdez .5 SS Trevor Story 2.5 Pablo Reyes .5 3B Rafael Devers 4 OF Alex Verdugo 2.5 Jarren Duran 2 Rob Refsnyder 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 1 DH Masataka Yoshida 2.5 SP Brayan Bello 2.5 Chris Sale 1.5 Garrett Whitlock 1.5 Tanner Houck 1.5 Kutter Crawford 1.5 Nick Pivetta 1.5 RP Kenley Jensen 1 Chris Martin .5 John Schreiber .5 Brennan Bernardino .5 = 33 WAR, which is.a .500 team. With probably like $60 million to spend. I think these are all fair, just for another POV the ZiPS ROS projections for the starters prorated to 150 games: Wong - 2.3, Casas - 1.7, Urias - 2.8, Devers - 4.15, Story - 2.6, Yoshida - 2.8, Duran - 2.3, Verdugo - 3 Pitchers are a little trickier but just taking the rotation and pro-rating to 30 starts: Bello - 2.3, Sale - 3, Whitlock - 2.3, Houck - 2.3, Crawford - 2.4 Of course not all those guys will play 150 games / 30 starts, and mostly the projections are in line with what you said.
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Post by redsox56 on Aug 9, 2023 22:04:16 GMT -5
Yamamoto's stuff is absolutely gross. Plus fastball. Plus plus splitter. Plus plus curveball.
I wouldn't care if they spent 275-300 million to get this guy.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 10, 2023 1:19:22 GMT -5
Yamamoto's stuff is absolutely gross. Plus fastball. Plus plus splitter. Plus plus curveball. I wouldn't care if they spent 275-300 million to get this guy. What worries me is the teams this miss out on Ohtani will probably overpay to rebound.
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