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8/18-8/20 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Aug 20, 2023 16:16:26 GMT -5
Justin Turner with +.615 WPA today. He was already 17th in baseball in WPA before today's game, and will be right around the top 10 after. Bring him back I honestly have Big Papian levels of confidence in him in RISP/2 out situations.
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Post by Canseco on Aug 20, 2023 16:18:10 GMT -5
Yankees radio calls Anthony Volpe “The Fox,” lol. They are so, so, SOOOO lame.
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Post by yuchangclan on Aug 20, 2023 16:22:28 GMT -5
Agreed. This Sox team is overachieving while the Yankees are underachieving on a level we haven’t seen in 30ish years? Not only that, but the Sox are also 8-1 head-to-head against the Yankees? Incredible. Red Sox overachieving? Which players have done significantly better than reasonable expectations? Duran, maybe Crawford, maybe Paxton, and...? The team, as a whole, is certainly exceeding my expectations for this season. But I would say Turner for sure, Crawford has been way better than expected, Reyes, Pivetta(RP version), Casas, Winck??? The whole has been better than the sum of its parts.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 20, 2023 16:24:27 GMT -5
Yankees radio calls Anthony Volpe “The Fox,” lol. They are so, so, SOOOO lame. Yeah. Not sure if you’ve ever heard the Stanton home run call on their broadcast but it might be the corniest thing in the sport.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 20, 2023 16:24:39 GMT -5
Yankees talk radio is going to be fun tomorrow. Adam Schein is back from vacation -- if you have SiriusXM his opening monologue should be epic.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 20, 2023 16:28:59 GMT -5
Red Sox overachieving? Which players have done significantly better than reasonable expectations? Duran, maybe Crawford, maybe Paxton, and...? The team, as a whole, is certainly exceeding my expectations for this season. But I would say Turner for sure, Crawford has been way better than expected, Reyes, Pivetta(RP version), Casas, Winck??? The whole has been better than the sum of its parts. Turner and Casas haven't exceeded my expectations (though maybe Turner's clutchness has). The rest I'd give you, but altogether they don't outweigh the underperformances of Kluber, Kiké, Devers, and 2B as a whole for me.
Anyway, they're as healthy as they've been all season and now some of the bats are starting to come to life... let's hope for more overachievement!
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Post by Canseco on Aug 20, 2023 16:29:58 GMT -5
They are so, so, SOOOO lame. Yeah. Not sure if you’ve ever heard the Stanton home run call on their broadcast but it might be the corniest thing in the sport. Yep. I live in NYS, so I hear a lot of their radio team. They make me cringe.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 20, 2023 16:42:21 GMT -5
Glad the Sox took this weekend to dismantle the Yankees.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,115
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Post by cdj on Aug 20, 2023 16:55:47 GMT -5
Might we see Ceddanne if Duran is hurt?
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Post by ephus on Aug 20, 2023 16:56:37 GMT -5
The thing with the last two games is that others HAD to step up with Casas out. If he steps back into the line-up with a red hot Raffy, it’ll be a lot of fun.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 20, 2023 17:05:32 GMT -5
Of all the ways for the team to actually make it to the playoffs this year I think getting Nuclear Devers for the last 6 weeks or so of the season is among the most likely (given none of them are particularly likely).
I just remember the first few months of 2022 where he was carrying like a 170 wRC+ (add: 168 through July 1 and then he hurt his wrist). Doing that the rest of the way buys them a couple wins over their current projections.
Add: Basically, Devers has a gear he can get to and run at for multiple months that most other players can only hit for a couple weeks.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,115
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Post by cdj on Aug 20, 2023 17:16:09 GMT -5
If Devers is hitting that extra gear that we know he has in him then they are gonna be very difficult to beat
If they lock up Bello with him they have two Yankees killers for a looooong time
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Post by patford on Aug 20, 2023 17:29:39 GMT -5
Red Sox overachieving? Which players have done significantly better than reasonable expectations? Duran, maybe Crawford, maybe Paxton, and...? The team, as a whole, is certainly exceeding my expectations for this season. But I would say Turner for sure, Crawford has been way better than expected, Reyes, Pivetta(RP version), Casas, Winck??? The whole has been better than the sum of its parts. Based on preseason predictions (including mine) the Sox are doing better than expected. Based on results on the field the Sox should reasonably be 3-5 games better than they are as there have been a number of WTF losses. The Yankees are currently a bad team. A big part of that has been injuries.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 20, 2023 17:35:48 GMT -5
Other than winning a WS is there a greater feeling than sweeping MFY in NY? I really dont think so. Also Justin Turner has that 2004 dirt dog quality IMO.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 20, 2023 17:44:58 GMT -5
64-58-16. Playoff percentages. We need to stay red hot.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 20, 2023 18:25:28 GMT -5
64-58-16. Playoff percentages. We need to stay red hot. TBH, I don't find the daily odds to be that helpful at this stage and would much rather contextualize it in results. We all know we need a hot stretch to pull this off. The better dialogue is where we think the over/under win mark will be for the playoffs. If it's 90, that means they need to go 24-14. Not too tall of a task - stretches of 6-4, 7-3, 6-4, 5-3. They just did a 7-3 stretch, but that's after a 3-7 stretch before that. In the previous 40 games they went 6-4, 8-2, 3-7, 7-3. What they need to do, and who knows if they are capable of it, is cut the 3-7 stretches out for the final leg. This next stretch is crucial, even a 5-5 is manageable but they really need to win 2 of these 3 series. 90 might not be good enough but it's close, maybe it's 91 or 92. I think one of Hos/Sea/Tor will finish under 90, 2 is a bit tighter. Toronto would need to go 21-16, Seattle 21-17, and Houston 20-17. Texas isn't safe either, they just hit a cold spell and need to go 18-20. Tampa 15-21.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 20, 2023 18:52:19 GMT -5
64-58-16. Playoff percentages. We need to stay red hot. TBH, I don't find the daily odds to be that helpful at this stage and would much rather contextualize it in results. We all know we need a hot stretch to pull this off. The better dialogue is where we think the over/under win mark will be for the playoffs. If it's 90, that means they need to go 24-14. Not too tall of a task - stretches of 6-4, 7-3, 6-4, 5-3. They just did a 7-3 stretch, but that's after a 3-7 stretch before that. In the previous 40 games they went 6-4, 8-2, 3-7, 7-3. What they need to do, and who knows if they are capable of it, is cut the 3-7 stretches out for the final leg. This next stretch is crucial, even a 5-5 is manageable but they really need to win 2 of these 3 series. 90 might not be good enough but it's close, maybe it's 91 or 92. I think one of Hos/Sea/Tor will finish under 90, 2 is a bit tighter. Toronto would need to go 21-16, Seattle 21-17, and Houston 20-17. Texas isn't safe either, they just hit a cold spell and need to go 18-20. Tampa 15-21. I'm thinking even more short-term than that for now, since I think the next ten games go a huge way towards dictating what we'll actually need. 7 of the next 10 are against Houston, who is in WC2 position and 3.5 games in front of us. In the short term, I think we need to win at least 4/7 against Houston and to go 6-4 or better over that stretch. That would give us the tie-breaker against both Houston and Toronto, which would be huge, and a record of no worse than 72-62 with the hardest stretch on the schedule behind us.
Even if we manage that, though, 90 wins might be what we'll need in order to get it done this year. That would translate into 18-10 over the last 28. Not impossible, certainly, but that's still a pretty strong stretch. I had been thinking we might not need to win quite that much, but check out the remaining strengths of schedule among the WC2/3 contenders:
Houston: .473 (3rd easiest) Seattle: .478 (5th easiest) Toronto: .486 (8th easiest) Boston: .541 (2nd hardest)
We absolutely have to do damage against Houston and Toronto and then make those tie-breakers count. Otherwise we could well have to get more like low 90s wins despite getting buried a bit by Houston and Toronto, and I don't think that's happening.
I can't stress enough how amazing it would be to get 5 wins against Houston, though. That'd likely put us at a near identical record to them 10 games from now with a tie-breaker in hand.
So, the shortest-term goal has to be at least 2/4 in Houston. And, especially given that Houston just got swept by Seattle, I think we really need game 1 to set the tone. Let's hope Paxton brings his A game.
Edit: Also, it's worth considering that Texas has lost four in a row and they're currently only 3 games in front of Houston and 2.5 games in front of Seattle with 10 games on the schedule against one of those two teams. They could definitely be in the WC2/3 conversation. The Sox won 2 of 3 against them at Fenway, so winning 2 of 3 in Arlington down the stretch would be huge. 1 of 3 might still get us the tie-breaker, though, since I think the second tie-breaker is record within your division, and we're currently 19-14 and Texas is 21-15. If we're hot enough down the stretch and Texas falters enough that the tiebreaker matters, we could well end up with a better divisional record than Texas.
Incidentally, Seattle is currently 22-11 against the West (don't you just love rewarding teams in weaker divisions with better seeding in addition to the easier schedule?) and we went 3-3 against them on the year, so it's not out of the question for us to have that tiebreaker too by the end of the year. I'm definitely not counting on it, though.
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Post by briam on Aug 20, 2023 18:58:06 GMT -5
Boy does it feel good to put the nail in the Yankees coffin. Sucks this season is going to come down to those games given away by Kiké at short and Kluber on the bump.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2023 19:00:34 GMT -5
Boy does it feel good to put the nail in the Yankees coffin. Sucks this season is going to come down to those games given away by Kiké at short and Kluber on the bump. Getting swept at Fenway by Toronto when they had a chance to pull closer or ahead didnt help.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 20, 2023 19:13:17 GMT -5
Boy does it feel good to put the nail in the Yankees coffin. Sucks this season is going to come down to those games given away by Kiké at short and Kluber on the bump. Getting swept at Fenway by Toronto when they had a chance to pull closer or ahead didnt help. Even 1 of 3 would have made such a difference, since that's a two-game swing in the standings.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 20, 2023 19:51:08 GMT -5
just avoid another of those losing streaks that follow winning streaks. hampered team all year. barring anything ridiculously bad, we'll be in it right up to the last few games of the year, we might even have an advantage then. Excited to see how it plays out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2023 19:59:06 GMT -5
Getting swept at Fenway by Toronto when they had a chance to pull closer or ahead didnt help. Even 1 of 3 would have made such a difference, since that's a two-game swing in the standings. Exactly what I was thinking. They had won 7 in a row against Toronto and were due to have some regression so I thought to myself, just don't get swept and theyll be fine, even if they lose a game in the standings, but they lost all 3 and put themselves in a hole. They gained a couple of games back but now the schedule hardens so they have their work cut out for them. They had been tripping over bad teams but I figured that would revert and sure enough they went 9-4. They have held their own against good teams but I was worried that would revert, too, and they got swept by Toronto and I worry about what Houston might do to them, or even LA and a struggling injured Tampa team. It's going to get rough. They have to play reasonably good team defense, have timely hitting, avoid offensive showdowns and get innings out of their starters so the pen doesnt get worn out.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 20, 2023 20:13:22 GMT -5
Even 1 of 3 would have made such a difference, since that's a two-game swing in the standings. Exactly what I was thinking. They had won 7 in a row against Toronto and were due to have some regression so I thought to myself, just don't get swept and theyll be fine, even if they lose a game in the standings, but they lost all 3 and put themselves in a hole. They gained a couple of games back but now the schedule hardens so they have their work cut out for them. They had been tripping over bad teams but I figured that would revert and sure enough they went 9-4. They have held their own against good teams but I was worried that would revert, too, and they got swept by Toronto and I worry about what Houston might do to them, or even LA and a struggling injured Tampa team. It's going to get rough. They have to play reasonably good team defense, have timely hitting, avoid offensive showdowns and get innings out of their starters so the pen doesnt get worn out. If the pitching stays healthy and otherwise just plays up to its potential, I think we're in good shape there against any opponent. The defense will probably not be *good* this year, but Story has been a stabilizing force. I'm hoping for merely below average, not downright terrible, and I think that's attainable. And if we see Rafaela in September, all bets are off. The big question mark for me is the offense. A hot Devers is a game changer alongside a productive JT, Casas, and Reyes, but we have a lot of guys right now (Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Story) who aren't playing up to their potential offensively. If a few of those guys start feeling it, I don't think I'd bet against us regardless of the opponent. If not, though, I don't think we're going to make the playoffs. Hopefully this series (8, 8, 6) is a sign of good things to come.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 20, 2023 20:39:13 GMT -5
Exactly what I was thinking. They had won 7 in a row against Toronto and were due to have some regression so I thought to myself, just don't get swept and theyll be fine, even if they lose a game in the standings, but they lost all 3 and put themselves in a hole. They gained a couple of games back but now the schedule hardens so they have their work cut out for them. They had been tripping over bad teams but I figured that would revert and sure enough they went 9-4. They have held their own against good teams but I was worried that would revert, too, and they got swept by Toronto and I worry about what Houston might do to them, or even LA and a struggling injured Tampa team. It's going to get rough. They have to play reasonably good team defense, have timely hitting, avoid offensive showdowns and get innings out of their starters so the pen doesnt get worn out. If the pitching stays healthy and otherwise just plays up to its potential, I think we're in good shape there against any opponent. The defense will probably not be *good* this year, but Story has been a stabilizing force. I'm hoping for merely below average, not downright terrible, and I think that's attainable. And if we see Rafaela in September, all bets are off. The big question mark for me is the offense. A hot Devers is a game changer alongside a productive JT, Casas, and Reyes, but we have a lot of guys right now (Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Story) who aren't playing up to their potential offensively. If a few of those guys start feeling it, I don't think I'd bet against us regardless of the opponent. If not, though, I don't think we're going to make the playoffs. Hopefully this series (8, 8, 6) is a sign of good things to come. Yoshida has proven this far to be a streaky player. When he is hot, like in the WBC, he can carry an offense.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 20, 2023 20:59:56 GMT -5
Might we see Ceddanne if Duran is hurt? Just yesterday, Speier called Abreu major league replacement level right now. He's also been very hot.
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