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Patriots 2023 Season Thread
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Post by rasimon on Dec 26, 2023 20:40:14 GMT -5
What do you think of doing something like trading for Fields and drafting Harrison Jr or Bowers? I have zero problems with drafting Harrison or Bowers, trading for Fields? No, unless it's crazy cheap. Why not role with Zappe and draft a rookie QB? It's a deep class unless a bunch of guys go back to college. Another option could be sign Kirk Cousins and use our top draft picks for WR (or Bowers) and/or OT help. Yes Cousins will likely cost around $30mm/yr but you know what you are getting and QBs tend to age well. Article on aging www.pff.com/news/nfl-investigating-positional-aging-curves-with-pff-warArticle on success at drafting different positions www.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-historical-draft-success-at-offensive-positionswww.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-historical-draft-success-at-defensive-positionsWRs (and DBs) are expensive, they don't tend to age well. So signing one as a FA means you are likely getting one on the downside of a career. Also the success rate of WR draftees drops off quite a bit after the top 2 rounds. CBs drop off after round 1. So using top picks on pass catchers and pass deflectors seems to make sense. OT and IOL age well but this years OT FA class is pretty weak. Tryon Smith is very good but he will be 34 next year and I doubt he leaves Dallas. After that the next best are Trent Brown and Big Mike. They are fine but its not clear if Trent wants to stay in BOS. Although its also not clear if anyone else wants to take a chance on him. After them the next best are a step down? Mekhi Becton has health issues. Jonah Williams is just ok. Jermaine Eluemunor has been ok this year after a few poor years. So we may need to use the draft for OT help.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 27, 2023 12:07:49 GMT -5
He's the lowest graded OT among all OTs in the top 165 of PFF rankings, has given up 12 QB hits/pressures this year not even starting every game. He hasn't even mastered college RT. I don't doubt the upside, you just don't take a project OT in the top 15. 15 starts is also very bad, Alt gave up one sack the last two years in 25 starts for example at LT. As one who has played much too often with the PFF draft machine, I can say their rankings on several players are wonky. But I don't want to argue the merits of PFF. I only want to say I don't think it adds much to any conversation to play their ranking like a trump card. My OP wasn't advocating for Guyton, merely questioning why his placement was considered "weird." The ESPN guy who did film study on him ranked him high on his board but still behind the top tier guys & I quoted his reasoning for the board to access. For this I get PFF shoved at me? Also, I mentioned Dane Brugler had him fairly high at # 22. His reasoning: "Similar to Amarius Mims, Guyton’s draft projection is based more on traits and upside than body of work, which can make it challenging to accurately rank him at this point. But he offers the big-man athleticism and movement skills that make it easy to be optimistic for his future. Several NFL scouts believe his potential is greater than that of Anton Harrison, a 2023 first-rounder from Oklahoma." Note he incorporated "several NFL scouts" into his opinion. But again, as I said in my OP, it is early. Much will change after the senior bowl & combine. And maybe PFF will adjust their rating when they see how far off they are, like they do every year with many prospects as we get closer to the draft. That scouting report backs up PFF, raw athlete that wasn't good but has upside. You can look at things a few ways, the draft overall or from the Patriots views. Everyone agrees on his scouting report, a raw upside guy who didn't play well, but has upside because he's an athlete. The question is draft position. ESPN sucks, McShay was their best guy and they let him go. From Patriots view he's not even an option in first round, Bill goes after experience and skill, the opposite of what he is. I feel 100% safe saying he's not even an option for Patriots and overall he's not close to the third OT in this draft. CBS has him 51st, his overall average at his position is 10th in OTs. Anyone that mentions his sack numbers without mentioning his hits and hurries isn't doing a good job. Anyone that knows football knows its sacks, hits and hurries, that's how you grade OL against pass and pass rushers in general. He was actually horrible versus the pass. BTW Anton Harrison wasn't a great athlete, he was a technically sound LT with lots of experience. So saying he has great upside compared to him really means nothing. You can post whatever you want, when questioned about it you backed it up and defended the rankings. You didn't say they aren't my rankings, go complain to ESPN. There's a reason that poster questioned them, because most other places have him much lower!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 27, 2023 12:20:48 GMT -5
I have zero problems with drafting Harrison or Bowers, trading for Fields? No, unless it's crazy cheap. Why not role with Zappe and draft a rookie QB? It's a deep class unless a bunch of guys go back to college. Another option could be sign Kirk Cousins and use our top draft picks for WR (or Bowers) and/or OT help. Yes Cousins will likely cost around $30mm/yr but you know what you are getting and QBs tend to age well. Article on aging www.pff.com/news/nfl-investigating-positional-aging-curves-with-pff-warArticle on success at drafting different positions www.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-historical-draft-success-at-offensive-positionswww.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-historical-draft-success-at-defensive-positionsWRs (and DBs) are expensive, they don't tend to age well. So signing one as a FA means you are likely getting one on the downside of a career. Also the success rate of WR draftees drops off quite a bit after the top 2 rounds. CBs drop off after round 1. So using top picks on pass catchers and pass deflectors seems to make sense. OT and IOL age well but this years OT FA class is pretty weak. Tryon Smith is very good but he will be 34 next year and I doubt he leaves Dallas. After that the next best are Trent Brown and Big Mike. They are fine but its not clear if Trent wants to stay in BOS. Although its also not clear if anyone else wants to take a chance on him. After them the next best are a step down? Mekhi Becton has health issues. Jonah Williams is just ok. Jermaine Eluemunor has been ok this year after a few poor years. So we may need to use the draft for OT help. It's an option, one that scares the crap out of my. Cousins is good, but has always had a ton of weapons and isn't clutch. Heck I'd rather gamble on Fields than Cousins, now add in coming off an injury. Cousins for me is only an option if he's cheap and that's unlikely. I'd rather Zappe and draft a rookie, take advantage of the deep QB class which means some good ones will drop. Then again it's like I said, let's see what Zappe does the next two games. If he keeps this up, given this OL, down a ton of weapons, they guy likely deserves a chance to see what he can do. With a rookie to push him and add upside, plus maybe Mac Jones also still on the roster.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 27, 2023 14:34:30 GMT -5
I really don’t want to imagine a world where Zappe is starting next season, with all due respect.
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Post by ephus on Dec 27, 2023 14:38:23 GMT -5
Put me on Team Joe Alt in the first, then the rest will fall into place. Let Trent Brown go; re-up Onwenu. Have a young line cemented by Alt, Strange and Sow. This is the way.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Dec 27, 2023 15:08:01 GMT -5
I’m fine with Zappe starting if they draft a QB in round 2 like Penix. I think he can be placeholder at the very least
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 27, 2023 15:16:22 GMT -5
Looks like Russ will be available.
Anyone game for the Russ Reclamation Tour? (I am not -- Zappe, Daniels, McCarthy, Ewers (& I really wanted to see the Tulane QB today) are my preferences in some yet to be determined order).
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 27, 2023 15:21:20 GMT -5
I’m fine with Zappe starting if they draft a QB in round 2 like Penix. I think he can be placeholder at the very least Tall Tua might be interesting too.
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Post by philarhody on Dec 27, 2023 15:53:16 GMT -5
Sign Big Mike and Trent, and then you can draft MHJ or trade down to some team that thinks 24 year old Jayden Daniels is going to suddenly read a defense.
I hope the Pats give Brown the bag. I actually think it’s smart money. Belichick is enamored by Uber talents, even if their off field character/work ethic is questionable (see LT, Moss). Brown is one of the rare players who is so big, so gifted that he can basically show up on a Sunday and hold down a marquee position, no problem. He’s also only 30, which means he’s still going to be effective for awhile.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Dec 27, 2023 23:18:43 GMT -5
They claimed CB Marco Wilson off waivers from the Cardinals. Lots of starting experience since he entered the league, decent size.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 28, 2023 8:02:50 GMT -5
Sign Big Mike and Trent, and then you can draft MHJ or trade down to some team that thinks 24 year old Jayden Daniels is going to suddenly read a defense. I hope the Pats give Brown the bag. I actually think it’s smart money. Belichick is enamored by Uber talents, even if their off field character/work ethic is questionable (see LT, Moss). Brown is one of the rare players who is so big, so gifted that he can basically show up on a Sunday and hold down a marquee position, no problem. He’s also only 30, which means he’s still going to be effective for awhile. Giving a guy like Brown the bag, is something loser franchises do.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 28, 2023 12:27:02 GMT -5
Well I badly want Caleb Williams, that doesn't look likely, heck Maye doesn't look likely right now. Now maybe I change my mind, but right now I'm not sold on the next tier in the top ten. I'd rather take safer picks, which happen to be elite prospects at positions of need. Zappe is playing at a crazy high level given the talent that's out, so I'm not feeling good about the next two games either. Bills barely won against Chargers with a backup QB playing.
I love Penix, he's not a top 10 guy in my book given his injury history and crazy talent level. Top of the 2nd round? Yeah I like that a lot!
At the same time we have to acknowledge that Zappe is playing at a crazy high level right now. He plays two more good defensive teams to end the year, so if that continues you can't just overlook that either. There's something there with him, I don't know if it's just good backup/fringe starter or something more. The guy set college records and the more he plays, the better he gets. He forms chemistry quickly with his weapons and he's been making a ton of quality NFL throws. He's taken our offense from 2nd to last to middle of the pack and look at the players out, look at the running production, OL play, etc.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 28, 2023 12:33:53 GMT -5
Sign Big Mike and Trent, and then you can draft MHJ or trade down to some team that thinks 24 year old Jayden Daniels is going to suddenly read a defense. I hope the Pats give Brown the bag. I actually think it’s smart money. Belichick is enamored by Uber talents, even if their off field character/work ethic is questionable (see LT, Moss). Brown is one of the rare players who is so big, so gifted that he can basically show up on a Sunday and hold down a marquee position, no problem. He’s also only 30, which means he’s still going to be effective for awhile. Giving a guy like Brown the bag, is something loser franchises do. You give Onwenu the bag. Brown playing for a contract had to be paid extra money to play well, multiple reports about him always being late, he gets injured. It will be Raiders 2.0 if you give Brown the bag. Just look at the first year of his last contract, he was horrible. He's an incredibly high maintenance player that needs short term deals and the right coach to keep him motivated. Trent Brown might already be out of the league if it wasn't for Bill and the Patriots.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 28, 2023 14:23:23 GMT -5
Picking the 3rd or 4th "best qb" in a draft class generally is how you end up with a Mac Jones. Sure sometimes it works out but feels like more often than not there's only a few good qbs per class and sometimes there's not even one.
Feels to me like if Williams and Maye or gone the pats would be best off just taking BPA.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 28, 2023 14:44:26 GMT -5
Picking the 3rd or 4th "best qb" in a draft class generally is how you end up with a Mac Jones. Sure sometimes it works out but feels like more often than not there's only a few good qbs per class and sometimes there's not even one. Feels to me like if Williams and Maye or gone the pats would be best off just taking BPA. I would draft the highest upside project available and sign Russell Wilson.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 28, 2023 16:25:17 GMT -5
Picking the 3rd or 4th "best qb" in a draft class generally is how you end up with a Mac Jones. Sure sometimes it works out but feels like more often than not there's only a few good qbs per class and sometimes there's not even one. Feels to me like if Williams and Maye or gone the pats would be best off just taking BPA. Josh Allen Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes (counting him bc he was the 10th pick) Justin Herbert Dak Prescott Jalen Hurts
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 28, 2023 17:34:15 GMT -5
Picking the 3rd or 4th "best qb" in a draft class generally is how you end up with a Mac Jones. Sure sometimes it works out but feels like more often than not there's only a few good qbs per class and sometimes there's not even one. Feels to me like if Williams and Maye or gone the pats would be best off just taking BPA. Josh Allen Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes (counting him bc he was the 10th pick) Justin Herbert Dak Prescott Jalen Hurts Ha yes I'm not saying it never happens but I could probably go find 10X more draft classes that had multiple qbs with high hype who didn't do anything. If the team loves a qb after Williams and Maye then you take the guy but I feel like teams should never pick a qb they sorta like just cuz they "need one".
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 29, 2023 12:16:44 GMT -5
It's not about the 3rd or 4th QB, it's about the rating of the QB, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams types guys two of the safer type players in recent memory versus Zach Wilson types. Call it grades or tiers or whatever. I wouldn't mind the 3rd or 4th QB if they are good, that's just a rare thing. Already a rare draft in that you have two QBs who experts rate at that level, guys good enough to be clear #1 type guys in most drafts. Though I rate Williams higher, 3 years starting with great production all 3 years playing against good competition. While at the same time not having a crazy amount of talent around him that makes judging him harder like Mac Jones at Bama. We've seen him struggle and bounce back. Heck Williams and Maye have done more with less than Lawrence, he just had more big games with more pressure on him.
Nothing scares me more than QBs with one good year. Nevermind trends like Big Ben is great from small school, so others rise and suck. Josh Allen is great, so now every raw player rises in draft. You can chase players like that, but for every hit there are 3-5 draft busts. Few teams can do what 49ers did with Trey Lance and not have it tank the team for years.
QB rise because there just isn't enough good ones. We see it at other positions, but nothing like at QB. The last thing the Patriots need is another draft bust after Mac Jones. So stick to your rankings and draft best available player. The biggest issue with evaluating QBs is you need information we don't have. Those team interviews and workouts are key.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 29, 2023 12:26:35 GMT -5
BTW Cam Newton is crazy, saying Patriots front office needs to held accountable for ruining Mac Jones. Mr. NEWTON, if what they did was so wrong, how come for two years Zappe has done well? If it's the coaching, weapons, system or changing OC, why doesn't that apply to Zappe? A younger player with less experience?
I'm so over this crazy narrative, Cam Newton look what Bill did in your one year here, then compare it to the next year with Panthers. He maximized your talent and worth all he could. We still won games with you bouncing more balls on the ground than I've ever seen any QB do in a season. You still looked like a starting level QB and won games. One year with Panthers and your career is over. It just amazes me that he literally lived through that and is now saying that crap.
Then again he think Fields is having a breakout year and I don't see it.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 30, 2023 21:10:45 GMT -5
Juju done for the season.
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Post by Montana Lemonious-Craig on Dec 30, 2023 23:03:50 GMT -5
Juju done for the season. Hopefully done for good with the Pats. What a massive, but predictable disappointment
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862
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Post by cdj on Dec 30, 2023 23:27:14 GMT -5
Pats back to picking 3rd with that cowboys win
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 8:38:24 GMT -5
Pats back to picking 3rd with that cowboys win We all know Pats are beating the Jets so not winning today is key
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 12:00:02 GMT -5
Lots of big money playing time incentives weren’t reached this year which is nice for next years cap.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2023 12:20:14 GMT -5
Worth nothing Trent is a healthy scratch.
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