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Issues Producing home grown Starting pitching
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 8, 2023 22:30:56 GMT -5
Seems pretty clear this is an organizational issue and not a Bloom (or GM) specific one. The sox have been terrible at developing any home grown pitching going all the way back to the 2005 (Theo) which is almost 20 years ago! SP the red sox have drafted and developed (domestic draft not international FA’s) 2005: Buchholz 2006 Masterson 2017: Houck, Crawford And i think thats pretty much anyone of note. Not sure what is causing the Sox to have this much trouble developing so few SP since 2005. But for those who want to blame Bloom or Dd etc, for the sox having terrible pitching it’s clearly something deeper than the GM. But the question is what is it and how has it been an issue for the sox for close to 20 years soxprospects.com/dh.htm
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 8, 2023 22:47:35 GMT -5
I will add that we seem to have a problem developing - or acquiring - lights out flame throwing bullpen arms. For the last few years, we seem to face an endless supply of them, but can't recall any of our own arms throwing with truly high velocity (did Kimbrel hit 100? Papelbon? Bard?)
In general, we seem at a recent disadvantage in the arms race. How to remedy? (and I don't mean to imply that velocity is a panacea to our problems - just odd we don't seem to have any).
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2023 23:31:53 GMT -5
Is there reason to think this is still an issue? If you didn't know anything about the pre-2017 history, you'd look at Houck, Crawford, and Bello, and a couple of current top-10 prospects, and consider that fairly respectable, no?
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 8, 2023 23:38:32 GMT -5
Is there reason to think this is still an issue? If you didn't know anything about the pre-2017 history, you'd look at Houck, Crawford, and Bello, and a couple of current top-10 prospects, and consider that fairly respectable, no? I am more Talking about ex prospects. Either those who made a name for themselves (masterson) or those who flame out (Owens)
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 9, 2023 0:43:17 GMT -5
My guess is that the data around what makes a good pitcher is very noisy, and as a data-driven team the Sox got the wrong insights and thus pushed the wrong things in development.
If you go through the 20-60 guys on the list right now there are quite a few pitchers with “velocity has jumped significantly in pro ball” in their scouting report, so they at least seem to be getting better at helping guys improve their stuff now.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2023 4:33:31 GMT -5
What’s fascinating to me is the lag time between correcting the issue and actually seeing those results. For all we know the Sox have the some of the best talent at drafting and developing pitching for the past two years. But we won’t see that fruit for a few more.
Now, with that said, I think there’s so many variables in the equation; to where you draft, how you draft, personnel, and to some degree…luck, and to some extent in the luck category you got to talk about injury. The results over the past couple decades speak for themselves, but it’s not like a lot of these guys weren’t heralded by the national media, trades to other teams and still failed.
We’ve had plenty of highly regarded pitching prospects over the years that gave the appearance of organizational strength and they just never amounted to anything or much.
Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Casey Kelly, Ruby De La Rosa, Anderson Espinoza, just to name a few off the top of my head.
Drafting pitchers is hard. But not it would sure be nice to hit on a guy one day soon. If someone like Perales or Wiklmen hit and pair up nicely with Bello I will eat my socks.
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Post by allenripley on Sept 9, 2023 7:06:48 GMT -5
Certainly Chaim's draft history is going to be scrutinized, now that we're four years in. In his first draft he took Yu-Welland and Drohan before Spencer St5rider and Bryce Elder--both NL all-stars for the Braves, taken in the 4th and 5th round respectively. There are a bunch of pitchers from that draft year who have made the big leagues. Are there ANY players Chaim has drafted that have made their major league debut? Outside of rule 5's? Not sure of the answer.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 9, 2023 7:37:59 GMT -5
The track record is abysmal.
Not sure why. I dont think there has been a ton of focus on pitching in the draft and when there was extreme focus like drafting Ball and Groome it failed.
I think these days it's harder to draft what I'd call a horse than what is more commonly drafted, the hybrid pitcher.
I dont think it's just a Red Sox issue but with the focus on flame throwing and the disregarding of the art of pitching we get guys being trained to air it out for 5 innings, the less successful ones become hybrid pitchers bouncing back and forth between starting and relieving and then the guys throwing 100 who cant consistently throw strikes wind up as relievers.
The Sox, other than Bello, are deficient in developing even these types. Houck is a hybrid. Hes never going to be a horse, and their true relievers tend to be scrap heap rejects from other teams, other than purchasing Jansen and Martin.
So 200 inning starters arent really being developed much anymore, so we get the Tampa model, fungible pitching, not meant to last, designed to be fungible so that you dont develop a horse who gets too expensive in free agency.
That's a baseball wide issue but despite even that the Sox track record is abysmal.
Before Bello, Felix Doubront in 2013 was the last starter from their system to truly help the club and when it looked like he'd progress in 2014 he fell off a cliff instead.
Before that you go back to Buchholz, Lester and Anabal Sanchez, whom the Sox dealt away.
Feels far away from when I grew up and their starters like John Tudor, Bruce Hurst, Bob Ojeda, Al Nipper, Oil Can Boyd, and Roger Clemens all came from their system and became legit major league starters and then some. They also featured the ultimate hybrid pitcher they developed from their system in Bob Stanley.
It dried up since that point as far as I can see. Aaron Sele was the best they developed in the 90s. Had high hopes for Kevin Morton but it didnt pan out. Dana Kiecker and Tom Bolton contributed in 1990. And the drop off after that was drastic. Andy Yount was supposed to be huge but his career got cut short by an injury brought on by tragedy. Brian Rose and Carl Pavano were supposed to be big, but Rose didnt have great stuff and the Sox for some strange reason felt compelled to trade Pavano to Montreal for some skinny Dominican pitcher, lol.
It's truly been a long time since the Sox really developed pitching and I think it goes back even further than Lester. Buchholz, and Sanchez.
I think it probably has to do with lack of pitching instruction in the system. Dont think he wants the job, but I wish that Pedro was the go to guy for pitching instruction in the minors. Having Clenens around, too would be helpful, but those are more fantasies than realities.
But I think the developmental instruction must pale in comparison to other organizations and the Sox shy away from drafting pitching feeling like drafting hitters high up is more of a safe bet, and they're most likely correct about that. Is it me or do the Sox like to draft closers in the 3rd round they think they can convert to starters and it has yet to work? Then mix in the general trend in baseball to not develop workhorse starters in the minors it makes it even harder to develop impact pitching.
Still, though, you'd think the Sox would develop better relievers or hybrid guys? Definitely explains why, to win, the Sox had to trade for Pedro, sign an aging Schilling until he was 40, trade big prospects for Josh Beckett, sign John Lackey, give 210 million to David Price, and trade more big prospects to get Chris Sale, and why Bloom will have to spend big bucks on a free agent starter or two and/or be willing to put a dent in his farm system to acquire a starter. Certainly also explains why he gave Kenley 16 million or why Dombrowski traded the immortal Manny Margot and Logan Allen were dealt for Kimbrel, as other than Barnes, who really wasn't a true closer, the only closer they've developed in 40 years that I can recall has been Papelbon, who was supposed to be a starter.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Sept 9, 2023 8:25:30 GMT -5
Is there reason to think this is still an issue? If you didn't know anything about the pre-2017 history, you'd look at Houck, Crawford, and Bello, and a couple of current top-10 prospects, and consider that fairly respectable, no? This is a competitive league. Is "fairly respectable" the goal? They may not be the worst team in the league over the last few years. They may have the 20th best pitching development program in the entire world! You might say that is "fairly respectable" even while the many teams who do it better are far ahead of them in the standings.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2023 8:32:24 GMT -5
Is there reason to think this is still an issue? If you didn't know anything about the pre-2017 history, you'd look at Houck, Crawford, and Bello, and a couple of current top-10 prospects, and consider that fairly respectable, no? This is a competitive league. Is "fairly respectable" the goal? They may not be the worst team in the league over the last few years. They may have the 20th best pitching development program in the entire world! You might say that is "fairly respectable" even while the many teams who do it better are far ahead of them in the standings. Okay. But the premise of the post is that the Sox have been *unusually bad* at developing pitching, and while that is indisputably true of the team pre-2017 it isn't clear to me that's the case now. On the totally separate topic of whether it would be nice to develop a bunch of aces - I agree, that would be nice.
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Post by manfred on Sept 9, 2023 8:53:04 GMT -5
This is a competitive league. Is "fairly respectable" the goal? They may not be the worst team in the league over the last few years. They may have the 20th best pitching development program in the entire world! You might say that is "fairly respectable" even while the many teams who do it better are far ahead of them in the standings. Okay. But the premise of the post is that the Sox have been *unusually bad* at developing pitching, and while that is indisputably true of the team pre-2017 it isn't clear to me that's the case now. On the totally separate topic of whether it would be nice to develop a bunch of aces - I agree, that would be nice. Or… just 2017? Crawford, Houck, and Bello all got added that year. I say this only because it might point more to luck than a shift that year. Yes there are a few guys in the system, but there have been highly ranked pitching prospects who busted before, so that is not different (until they make it).
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Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2023 9:24:01 GMT -5
Is there reason to think this is still an issue? If you didn't know anything about the pre-2017 history, you'd look at Houck, Crawford, and Bello, and a couple of current top-10 prospects, and consider that fairly respectable, no? "Fairly respectable." We've gone from pursuing "excellence" to "good" to "fairly respectable." Not a standard for any team aspiring to win the AL East or make the playoffs. At least, not anytime soon. Added to the chorus of those of us still thinking this org needs more help developing pitching:
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 9, 2023 9:38:55 GMT -5
Certainly Chaim's draft history is going to be scrutinized, now that we're four years in. In his first draft he took Yu-Welland and Drohan before Spencer St5rider and Bryce Elder--both NL all-stars for the Braves, taken in the 4th and 5th round respectively. There are a bunch of pitchers from that draft year who have made the big leagues. Are there ANY players Chaim has drafted that have made their major league debut? Outside of rule 5's? Not sure of the answer. Your missing my point. This is not just a Bloom issue. This was and has been an issue over multiple FO’s. Including those who operated during a CBA in which there were no limits on draft spending
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 9, 2023 9:45:59 GMT -5
fire Dave Bush is step 1 baby
I’m sure he’s good at breaking down data but I’m not sure he’s good at actually coaching.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 9, 2023 9:54:58 GMT -5
fire Dave Bush is step 1 baby I’m sure he’s good at breaking down data but I’m not sure he’s good at actually coaching. what in the world does Dave Bush have to do with minor league pitching development
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Post by cdj on Sept 9, 2023 9:55:39 GMT -5
fire Dave Bush is step 1 baby I’m sure he’s good at breaking down data but I’m not sure he’s good at actually coaching. what in the world does Dave Bush have to do with minor league pitching development Maybe not minor league pitching development but certainly pitching development For instance- something tells me that Crawford and Houck would be able to pitch into the 6th inning if they were with the Rays. The Rays just took one of our back of the bullpen castoffs and turned him into an average starter who just threw 8 innings Dave Bush is the guy who is supposed to put the finishing touches on their development As far as I’m concerned we have pitchers starting to pop in the minors. I have no confidence in them improving once they get to the bigs though
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 9, 2023 10:13:58 GMT -5
DD spent much more draft capital on pitching than Bloom has and he hit on some guys. At same time a bunch of busts and a huge issue was TJ surgery. Groome, Mata, Ward, Crawford, etc. I still think its case by case depending who's there, but I'd go positional players early if everything is equal, then go pitching heavy round 3-10.
International market is still your best bet, look at DD guys, especially Mata and Bello, just load up. I would spend a much higher percentage of International money on pitchers compared to the draft.
The rest is luck and development. Development is the biggest issue, babying the pitchers to prevent injuries isn't working. I'd focus on building arm strength and innings, versus throwing as hard as you can when they are young. Then move to increasing velocity after they build up innings and are strength. Plenty of young players could throw major innings at a young age years ago, like Pedro and Schilling. Now a days they won't allow that and it seems almost every young pitcher gets TJ surgery. Like focus on movement of pitches versus just velocity. That's just my novice take.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2023 10:28:08 GMT -5
I think the org has and has an issue developing pitchers since the late Theo days. It’s not just about selecting pitchers, they can’t seem to make the most of guys they have. Even just recently you can see a number of guys who left the org and have taken off elsewhere (Brasier, Springs, etc.)
How many of the guys on the staff does it seem like they are maxing out? Schreiber and Bernardino? Meanwhile the same teams consistently turn guys into big league pitchers (Tampa, Cleveland, LA).
At some point there is something better that can be done on the couching side. I would clean out most of the pitching staff and try something new.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 9, 2023 10:33:05 GMT -5
what in the world does Dave Bush have to do with minor league pitching development Maybe not minor league pitching development but certainly pitching development For instance- something tells me that Crawford and Houck would be able to pitch into the 6th inning if they were with the Rays. The Rays just took one of our back of the bullpen castoffs and turned him into an average starter who just threw 8 innings Dave Bush is the guy who is supposed to put the finishing touches on their development As far as I’m concerned we have pitchers starting to pop in the minors. I have no confidence in them improving once they get to the bigs though Is that really what pitching coaches do these days? Wouldn’t you expect a lot fewer pitching coaches to be former mediocre big leaguers and a lot more to be Driveline guys if that were the case? Like I feel like Mark Prior and Kyle Snyder have less to do with Ryan Brasier and Jeffrey Springs becoming good than the robust development apparatus below them—one of which our very own Chaim Bloom spent his entire career building before we hired him. I’m not saying Dave Bush is the best pitching coach in the league or anything, just that I think the issue goes a looooot deeper than him. I would be very surprised if we didn’t see another round of external hires this offseason.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 9, 2023 10:35:09 GMT -5
Certainly Chaim's draft history is going to be scrutinized, now that we're four years in. In his first draft he took Yu-Welland and Drohan before Spencer St5rider and Bryce Elder--both NL all-stars for the Braves, taken in the 4th and 5th round respectively. There are a bunch of pitchers from that draft year who have made the big leagues. Are there ANY players Chaim has drafted that have made their major league debut? Outside of rule 5's? Not sure of the answer. Your missing my point. This is not just a Bloom issue. This was and has been an issue over multiple FO’s. Including those who operated during a CBA in which there were no limits on draft spending 29 other teams didn't take those guys. So, not sure how you can put that on the Sox. Even the Braves didn't in rounds 1-3, which means they got lucky. Luck happens.
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Post by manfred on Sept 9, 2023 10:53:51 GMT -5
Your missing my point. This is not just a Bloom issue. This was and has been an issue over multiple FO’s. Including those who operated during a CBA in which there were no limits on draft spending 29 other teams didn't take those guys. So, not sure how you can put that on the Sox. Even the Braves didn't in rounds 1-3, which means they got lucky. Luck happens. I feel like as unsatisfying as it may be, “luck happens” is the answer to most of this. If the Sox have struggled since before Theo, it is hard to call it organizational, since that encompasses so many eras of approach and staff. Groome is an example of doing the “right” thing — there is a universe he turns into a frontline horse. Maybe the pattern of acquiring Pedro, Beckett, Schilling, and Sale (again, across FOs) suggests that the one general common ground is conceding that aces are rare enough that they are best left to the whole league to develop… then poach. I think it is actually not crazy to try to develop a surplus of player prospects and then trade for pitching. Players are surer bets. Let the Marlins be your incubator. Not saying not trying to develop pitchers at all… just emphasize players. Even now, I’d be willing to sell a decent number of our player prospects for a potentially elite arm.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 9, 2023 13:56:09 GMT -5
I don't really have any major problem with their pitching development. I don't see any specific red flags - something like being the one team in 2023 still not teaching anyone to throw a sweeper. They don't invest much in amateur pitching talent for justifiable reasons, so your expectations should be tempered. Still, there's a solid crop of young pitching on the club - Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock and Winckowski.
I'll count Brandon Walter as a semi-success story too - in 2021 and 2022 he was throwing like a legit major leaguer in the minors but his body broke down. One thing I would like to see them change is to give guys the rocket pack to the big leagues once they're good enough. You never know when it's going to be over for a guy. I thought they were a little slower than they needed to be with Bello, too.
Whatever happened 20 years ago is completely irrelevant. Different people trying to do different things.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2023 14:33:39 GMT -5
I don't really have any major problem with their pitching development. I don't see any specific red flags - something like being the one team in 2023 still not teaching anyone to throw a sweeper. They don't invest much in amateur pitching talent for justifiable reasons, so your expectations should be tempered. Still, there's a solid crop of young pitching on the club - Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock and Winckowski. I'll count Brandon Walter as a semi-success story too - in 2021 and 2022 he was throwing like a legit major leaguer in the minors but his body broke down. One thing I would like to see them change is to give guys the rocket pack to the big leagues once they're good enough. You never know when it's going to be over for a guy. I thought they were a little slower than they needed to be with Bello, too. Whatever happened 20 years ago is completely irrelevant. Different people trying to do different things. I think this is fair, but it also doesn’t seem to be a strength in the way it is for some other orgs (add STL and HOU to my earlier list). If that is a real thing other than random luck it’s worth reevaluating to try to get to that level.
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Post by dillard on Sept 9, 2023 16:21:34 GMT -5
Certainly Chaim's draft history is going to be scrutinized, now that we're four years in. In his first draft he took Yu-Welland and Drohan before Spencer St5rider and Bryce Elder--both NL all-stars for the Braves, taken in the 4th and 5th round respectively. There are a bunch of pitchers from that draft year who have made the big leagues. Are there ANY players Chaim has drafted that have made their major league debut? Outside of rule 5's? Not sure of the answer. Your missing my point. This is not just a Bloom issue. This was and has been an issue over multiple FO’s. Including those who operated during a CBA in which there were no limits on draft spending Agreed it's a long-term problem under multiple "administrations"--but consistently drafting/developing top flight pitching is one more category where Chaim has failed to turn things around. We could talk shortstops (Lawlar, McLain from the 2020 draft). Or outfielders (though Blaze looks legit). Just saying--while it's not fair to look at draft record until several years down the road, it's been 4 years. We need to see actual major leaguers emerge from Chaim's drafts. Or convert them to assets through trades, which he seems unwilling to do.
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Post by juanpena on Sept 9, 2023 16:49:01 GMT -5
Your missing my point. This is not just a Bloom issue. This was and has been an issue over multiple FO’s. Including those who operated during a CBA in which there were no limits on draft spending 29 other teams didn't take those guys. And every team has a site like this, people right now might be complaining on those sites. Taking both would have been amazing. Taking one would have been nice. This year showed more than ever the importance of starting pitching, particularly starters who can go deep into games. If Crawford and Houck are starters, you're unlikely to get more than five innings out of them. Best-case scenario for Gonzalez and Perales seems to be 2025, so they're going to have to go outside the organization to find a good starter or two (perferably two) or punt on next season.
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