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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 24, 2023 1:02:17 GMT -5
I think Aubreu showed enough in his skill set and his approach at the plate to start in right when verdugo eventually gets traded He didn`t even get 100 PAs. I`m talking about Abreu, maybe there is another guy named Aubreu you are talking about. Spelling mistakes do happen, no need to be sarcastic. The 100 PAs are a small sample at best I agree. More telling is that his batting average on balls he put into play was .431 which is unsustainable. There will be regression. So there's uncertainty about who he really is. That makes it difficult to imagine the team slotting him into the position right away.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 24, 2023 2:54:33 GMT -5
Our new PBO wisely said, just days ago, that the goal of the offense is to score runs. Jarren Duran’s ability to create runs this season was pushing the envelope magical. Most on this board were mesmerized by his ability to grab and maintain momentum 90’ by 90’. As a bonus this “rookie’s” defense started improving and he did pretty well in LF. Homegrown. Affordable. Fulfilling expectations. Not there yet but so close. He has not reached his peak I hope to see him creating and scoring runs for many years with the Red Sox. I hope Craig is building to an OF of Duran, Rafaella and ?? for 2024-25.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 24, 2023 5:51:31 GMT -5
Even with the small sample size you weren’t impressed with his approach ?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 24, 2023 9:49:07 GMT -5
I see the logic there. But at a certain point replacing guys on the 2023 team (Urias, Turner, Duran, Duvall) with guys who don't project to hit as well (Edman, Kiermaier, older version of Duvall) starts to take a toll on the offense. Say you went Hoskins, Edman, Kiermaier for those slots I’d guess projection wise that’s neutral to maybe just a slight downgrade vs what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall will be, but the defensive improvement is huge. The defensive improvement is even bigger if you go Duvall or Gurriel instead of Hoskins and play Yoshida at DH more, but the offense drops a little more. Or you could go Drury instead of Edman and the offensive outlook is neutral to possible even better. I’m just of the mind that Duran basically can’t be your center fielder. You can put him in left and DH Yoshida, but it’s harder to build a good and more balanced offense that way. There's an ambiguity in the baseline for comparison here. If we're comparing those additions to what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall project to be, then I agree it's not a downgrade. But if we compare them to the production the Red Sox actually got out of those four guys last year (with Duran, Turner, and Duvall all exceeding in 2023 what they project to do in 2024), then I think it is an offensive downgrade. (Not at 2B, where Edman would probably be better than what they collectively got there last season, but it certainly downgrades CF and probably DH.)
So the question is, can you take a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, downgrade the projected offense at multiple positions, and have a reasonable hope of making the playoffs?
In theory the defensive upgrades could make up for it. And of course the pitching should improve. But there are a bunch of teams in the AL that have good pitching and defense and above-average offenses, and I'm not sure I can see the Red Sox keeping up with those teams if so many spots in their lineup are going to either glove-first guys or question marks like Yoshida.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 24, 2023 10:32:12 GMT -5
Say you went Hoskins, Edman, Kiermaier for those slots I’d guess projection wise that’s neutral to maybe just a slight downgrade vs what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall will be, but the defensive improvement is huge. The defensive improvement is even bigger if you go Duvall or Gurriel instead of Hoskins and play Yoshida at DH more, but the offense drops a little more. Or you could go Drury instead of Edman and the offensive outlook is neutral to possible even better. I’m just of the mind that Duran basically can’t be your center fielder. You can put him in left and DH Yoshida, but it’s harder to build a good and more balanced offense that way. There's an ambiguity in the baseline for comparison here. If we're comparing those additions to what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall project to be, then I agree it's not a downgrade. But if we compare them to the production the Red Sox actually got out of those four guys last year (with Duran, Turner, and Duvall all exceeding in 2023 what they project to do in 2024), then I think it is an offensive downgrade. (Not at 2B, where Edman would probably be better than what they collectively got there last season, but it certainly downgrades CF and probably DH.)
So the question is, can you take a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, downgrade the projected offense at multiple positions, and have a reasonable hope of making the playoffs?
In theory the defensive upgrades could make up for it. And of course the pitching should improve. But there are a bunch of teams in the AL that have good pitching and defense and above-average offenses, and I'm not sure I can see the Red Sox keeping up with those teams if so many spots in their lineup are going to either glove-first guys or question marks like Yoshida.
Short of Ohtani or a big trade though I’m not sure there is a great way to upgrade the offense vs what they have. My proposal essentially takes Duran out and brings Hoskins in offensively and I’m not sure that’s a downgrade at all, but it does balance the line up more (and brings in whatever the Duran return is). If you’re okay with Duran in center you can bring in Teoscar or someone for left and DH Yoshida but I don’t know that that’s any better on offense.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 24, 2023 11:00:47 GMT -5
There's an ambiguity in the baseline for comparison here. If we're comparing those additions to what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall project to be, then I agree it's not a downgrade. But if we compare them to the production the Red Sox actually got out of those four guys last year (with Duran, Turner, and Duvall all exceeding in 2023 what they project to do in 2024), then I think it is an offensive downgrade. (Not at 2B, where Edman would probably be better than what they collectively got there last season, but it certainly downgrades CF and probably DH.)
So the question is, can you take a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, downgrade the projected offense at multiple positions, and have a reasonable hope of making the playoffs?
In theory the defensive upgrades could make up for it. And of course the pitching should improve. But there are a bunch of teams in the AL that have good pitching and defense and above-average offenses, and I'm not sure I can see the Red Sox keeping up with those teams if so many spots in their lineup are going to either glove-first guys or question marks like Yoshida.
Short of Ohtani or a big trade though I’m not sure there is a great way to upgrade the offense vs what they have. My proposal essentially takes Duran out and brings Hoskins in offensively and I’m not sure that’s a downgrade at all, but it does balance the line up more (and brings in whatever the Duran return is). If you’re okay with Duran in center you can bring in Teoscar or someone for left and DH Yoshida but I don’t know that that’s any better on offense. You're right, I can't come up with a better alternative. I think I'd rather have Duran in LF and Yoshida at DH, though, than bring in Hoskins. Maybe they can add Edman/Drury and Kiermaier and upgrade RF... [gesturing vaguely]... somehow... (No one say Soto. I'm not into paying a ton for a one-year rental, and I'm not that into extending him for $400 million either.)
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 24, 2023 11:01:40 GMT -5
There's an ambiguity in the baseline for comparison here. If we're comparing those additions to what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall project to be, then I agree it's not a downgrade. But if we compare them to the production the Red Sox actually got out of those four guys last year (with Duran, Turner, and Duvall all exceeding in 2023 what they project to do in 2024), then I think it is an offensive downgrade. (Not at 2B, where Edman would probably be better than what they collectively got there last season, but it certainly downgrades CF and probably DH.)
So the question is, can you take a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, downgrade the projected offense at multiple positions, and have a reasonable hope of making the playoffs?
In theory the defensive upgrades could make up for it. And of course the pitching should improve. But there are a bunch of teams in the AL that have good pitching and defense and above-average offenses, and I'm not sure I can see the Red Sox keeping up with those teams if so many spots in their lineup are going to either glove-first guys or question marks like Yoshida.
Short of Ohtani or a big trade though I’m not sure there is a great way to upgrade the offense vs what they have. My proposal essentially takes Duran out and brings Hoskins in offensively and I’m not sure that’s a downgrade at all, but it does balance the line up more (and brings in whatever the Duran return is). If you’re okay with Duran in center you can bring in Teoscar or someone for left and DH Yoshida but I don’t know that that’s any better on offense. I’m for trading both Verdugo and Duran and rolling with Rafaela in CF who is probably already top 5 defensive mlb cf unless all the reports of him are way off I’m interested in Teoscar at 3 years or less. Playing in Seattle dampened his numbers a lot I’m good with rolling with Abreu in RF, and Refsnyder as the 4th OF I think 2024 should be more focused on improving the rotation, the defense and letting guys like Rafaela and Abreu develope at the MLB level 2025 and beyond should be when we are legit contenders again
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Post by incandenza on Nov 24, 2023 11:10:56 GMT -5
Short of Ohtani or a big trade though I’m not sure there is a great way to upgrade the offense vs what they have. My proposal essentially takes Duran out and brings Hoskins in offensively and I’m not sure that’s a downgrade at all, but it does balance the line up more (and brings in whatever the Duran return is). If you’re okay with Duran in center you can bring in Teoscar or someone for left and DH Yoshida but I don’t know that that’s any better on offense. I’m for trading both Verdugo and Duran and rolling with Rafaela in CF who is probably already top 5 defensive mlb cf unless all the reports of him are way off I’m interested in Teoscar at 3 years or less. Playing in Seattle dampened his numbers a lot I’m good with rolling with Abreu in RF, and Refsnyder as the 4th OF I think 2024 should be more focused on improving the rotation, the defense and letting guys like Rafaela and Abreu develope at the MLB level 2025 and beyond should be when we are legit contenders again Certainly more solutions present themselves if you're not trying to field a good team. My guess is this is not how Breslow is thinking about his inaugural season however, and not what the owners were thinking when they brought him on.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 24, 2023 11:12:29 GMT -5
Short of Ohtani or a big trade though I’m not sure there is a great way to upgrade the offense vs what they have. My proposal essentially takes Duran out and brings Hoskins in offensively and I’m not sure that’s a downgrade at all, but it does balance the line up more (and brings in whatever the Duran return is). If you’re okay with Duran in center you can bring in Teoscar or someone for left and DH Yoshida but I don’t know that that’s any better on offense. You're right, I can't come up with a better alternative. I think I'd rather have Duran in LF and Yoshida at DH, though, than bring in Hoskins. Maybe they can add Edman/Drury and Kiermaier and upgrade RF... [gesturing vaguely]... somehow... (No one say Soto. I'm not into paying a ton for a one-year rental, and I'm not that into extending him for $400 million either.) Yeah bring in average or slightly better hitters for 2B and CF and then hope on internal improvements. Also while there are some guys they’re unlikely to replicate there’s also a pretty good chance they get better hitting at 2B and SS for most of the year than they did in 2023.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 24, 2023 11:30:02 GMT -5
Even with the small sample size you weren’t impressed with his approach ? Yes, he appears to have decent plate discipline, though there is still a hole on high hard stuff. But his babip will drift downward and where that leaves him is anybody's guess. For me, it doesn't make him the automatic choice for a full-time position. He'll need to prove out over a considerably longer stretch of playing time I believe.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 24, 2023 11:57:36 GMT -5
I’m for trading both Verdugo and Duran and rolling with Rafaela in CF who is probably already top 5 defensive mlb cf unless all the reports of him are way off I’m interested in Teoscar at 3 years or less. Playing in Seattle dampened his numbers a lot I’m good with rolling with Abreu in RF, and Refsnyder as the 4th OF I think 2024 should be more focused on improving the rotation, the defense and letting guys like Rafaela and Abreu develope at the MLB level 2025 and beyond should be when we are legit contenders again Certainly more solutions present themselves if you're not trying to field a good team. My guess is this is not how Breslow is thinking about his inaugural season however, and not what the owners were thinking when they brought him on. I don’t think Verdugo or duran mean much to fielding a good team for next year or beyond Especially if we are replacing them with Teoscar Hernandez and Rafaela and assuming some sort of productive return from trading them
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 24, 2023 13:03:25 GMT -5
I've always felt that when there's an outfielder with poor range (like Yoshida) then it's helpful to have an outfielder next to them, usually centerfielder, with superior range. Last year Duran was 4th in all of baseball in 'jump' and 5th in 'feet covered' (I suspect LF at Fenway is responsible for the discrepancy). Despite the range, Duran was only average defensively (0 range OAA; -1 throwing OAA) while being slightly below average throwing (although arm strength was surprisingly solid). Although an upgrade in centerfield defense would help the team, I'm just not sure how a switch from Duran to a player with equal, or worse, range would positively affect Yoshida. And a direct upgrade from a player who was 2nd on the team in fWAR last year won't be easy (although I can understand feeling he will be worse this year due to the high babip). Duran was an average outfielder but one of the worst center fielders in baseball by range. Teams put plus outfielders there. If the Red Sox replace him it’ll almost certainly be with someone with better range. Plus based on his history I’m not sure Duran’s a good bet to improve, defensive stats take a while to stabilize and while he looked better this year I'm not totally sold he can keep up this trajectory. I may not have explained this well in my post, but the 'range' which you're looking at isn't what a scout (or most people) would consider 'range'. It's simply the non-arm component of his 'run value' (range run value + arm run value = run value). His 'jump', which I noted above was top 4 or 5 in baseball is quite consistent from year-to-year (link below in case you don't believe me) due to the number of opportunities measured and the lack of randomness/luck involved. There was also a large drop-off in jump between #5 and #6, so we should expect Duran to once again be top-5 in terms of jump. Unfortunately Duran hasn't fully translated his improved jump/range (-2.1 to 0.7 to 2.8 over the past 3 years) into results to match - his OAA on equal/less than 90% catches was only 0 with a 54.3% success rate, which are both improvements, but below what we should expect from a CFer who can cover so much range. He may have been victim of some bad luck last year, but it's most likely that he still isn't good at making plays/catching the ball. The huge improvements by Duran over the last 2 years give me excitement that he can become an average, or better, CFer in short time (hopefully he's still putting in the work and power shagging like last offseason). baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump
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Post by jimoh on Nov 24, 2023 13:12:15 GMT -5
Duran was an average outfielder but one of the worst center fielders in baseball by range. Teams put plus outfielders there. If the Red Sox replace him it’ll almost certainly be with someone with better range. Plus based on his history I’m not sure Duran’s a good bet to improve, defensive stats take a while to stabilize and while he looked better this year I'm not totally sold he can keep up this trajectory. I may not have explained this well in my post, but the 'range' which you're looking at isn't what a scout (or most people) would consider 'range'. It's simply the non-arm component of his 'run value' (range run value + arm run value = run value). His 'jump', which I noted above was top 4 or 5 in baseball is quite consistent from year-to-year (link below in case you don't believe me) due to the number of opportunities measured and the lack of randomness/luck involved. There was also a large drop-off in jump between #5 and #6, so we should expect Duran to once again be top-5 in terms of jump. Unfortunately Duran hasn't fully translated his improved jump/range (-2.1 to 0.7 to 2.8 over the past 3 years) into results to match - his OAA on equal/less than 90% catches was only 0 with a 54.3% success rate, which are both improvements, but below what we should expect from a CFer who can cover so much range. He may have been victim of some bad luck last year, but it's most likely that he still isn't good at making plays/catching the ball. The huge improvements by Duran over the last 2 years give me excitement that he can become an average, or better, CFer in short time ( hopefully he's still putting in the work and power shagging like last offseason). baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jump Duran's goals this winter have to be to get back to normal; expecting a lot of improvement this offseason seems too much. Nov. 8: "Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said Wednesday that Duran (toe) has begun weight-bearing exercises, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports." www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-jarren-duran-begins-weight-bearing-exercises/
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 24, 2023 13:17:46 GMT -5
I’m for trading both Verdugo and Duran and rolling with Rafaela in CF who is probably already top 5 defensive mlb cf unless all the reports of him are way off I’m interested in Teoscar at 3 years or less. Playing in Seattle dampened his numbers a lot I’m good with rolling with Abreu in RF, and Refsnyder as the 4th OF I think 2024 should be more focused on improving the rotation, the defense and letting guys like Rafaela and Abreu develope at the MLB level 2025 and beyond should be when we are legit contenders again I very much would want to keep both Duran and Rafaela as I'm hoping the Red Sox contend and counting on only 1 seems too risky. With your mindset of 2024 being a rebuilding year, it makes sense to play Rafaela in CF. But I don't get the trading away of Duran and signing of Hernandez. Jarren is only 27 and still (hopefully) improving while Teoscar is 31 and has had a 3 year decline (especially in K%; 24.9, 28.4, 31.1) - why not just keep Duran and play him in LF if they're rebuilding? Also, if they're rebuilding, why worry about a LFer at all as getting Yoshida more experience in LF (where he hopefully improves) shouldn't matter for their record.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 24, 2023 13:26:42 GMT -5
Duran was an average outfielder but one of the worst center fielders in baseball by range. Teams put plus outfielders there. If the Red Sox replace him it’ll almost certainly be with someone with better range. Plus based on his history I’m not sure Duran’s a good bet to improve, defensive stats take a while to stabilize and while he looked better this year I'm not totally sold he can keep up this trajectory. I may not have explained this well in my post, but the 'range' which you're looking at isn't what a scout (or most people) would consider 'range'. It's simply the non-arm component of his 'run value' (range run value + arm run value = run value). His 'jump', which I noted above was top 4 or 5 in baseball is quite consistent from year-to-year (link below in case you don't believe me) due to the number of opportunities measured and the lack of randomness/luck involved. There was also a large drop-off in jump between #5 and #6, so we should expect Duran to once again be top-5 in terms of jump. Unfortunately Duran hasn't fully translated his improved jump/range (-2.1 to 0.7 to 2.8 over the past 3 years) into results to match - his OAA on equal/less than 90% catches was only 0 with a 54.3% success rate, which are both improvements, but below what we should expect from a CFer who can cover so much range. He may have been victim of some bad luck last year, but it's most likely that he still isn't good at making plays/catching the ball. The huge improvements by Duran over the last 2 years give me excitement that he can become an average, or better, CFer in short time (hopefully he's still putting in the work and power shagging like last offseason). baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outfield_jumpMaybe it’s semantics, but jump isn’t equal to range to me. Range also includes reaction, speed, route , etc and is the total encompassment of balls the outfielder can get to and catch. It’s no more or less important to me whether he gets to the ball and can’t catch it or can’t get there at all. Then you also consider errors but that’s a smaller component. His OAA isn’t just below what you should expect for a center fielder it is literally tied for the worst among CFs with over 500 innings there. Whether we call it range or defense or however you want to frame it, Duran in center is a massive weak spot and I don’t have the same hope for improvement (based on the prior 5 years of no improvement, though the fact he’s come this far is great). We will see what the Red Sox think but my personal preference is he’s either in left or not on the roster. Adding in likely offensive regression and the chance that another team is more bullish on his defense upside than I am, plus what should be a good return, plus the Red Sox lefty heavy set up, and that’s why I’m pro trading him.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 24, 2023 13:37:22 GMT -5
I’m for trading both Verdugo and Duran and rolling with Rafaela in CF who is probably already top 5 defensive mlb cf unless all the reports of him are way off I’m interested in Teoscar at 3 years or less. Playing in Seattle dampened his numbers a lot I’m good with rolling with Abreu in RF, and Refsnyder as the 4th OF I think 2024 should be more focused on improving the rotation, the defense and letting guys like Rafaela and Abreu develope at the MLB level 2025 and beyond should be when we are legit contenders again I very much would want to keep both Duran and Rafaela as I'm hoping the Red Sox contend and counting on only 1 seems too risky. With your mindset of 2024 being a rebuilding year, it makes sense to play Rafaela in CF. But I don't get the trading away of Duran and signing of Hernandez. Jarren is only 27 and still (hopefully) improving while Teoscar is 31 and has had a 3 year decline (especially in K%; 24.9, 28.4, 31.1) - why not just keep Duran and play him in LF if they're rebuilding? Also, if they're rebuilding, why worry about a LFer at all as getting Yoshida more experience in LF (where he hopefully improves) shouldn't matter for their record. When did I say that? Its not like we have won the last 2 years I would like to improve and make the playoffs, but we won't be a legit contender until 2025. I want to trade duran before he falls flat on his face offensively with the for certain regression coming to BABIP. Hernandez on a 3 year deal or less gived us a much needed right handed power bat to protect Devers, someone who had a 126 wRC+ away from the Mariners stadium.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 24, 2023 13:47:07 GMT -5
I think Duran makes sense as a guy to move from a roster construction standpoint but that’s in part because he should be a very valuable trade piece. He’s probably not good enough to be the regular center fielder, and it seems likely that Yoshida is getting the majority of the innings in left.
I really don’t want to lose him since I think his profile is a ton of fun to watch—I don’t think it’s a coincidence that MLB is basically changing the rules to make speed guys more valuable—and I think there’s enough to the rest of his game that the speed can be the carrying tool, but if a team likes him in a trade for an impact piece then I’m fine with that.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 24, 2023 13:59:01 GMT -5
The thing about shipping Duran out is: he's one of the few guys outside of Devers and Casas who has the chance to pop a big season, like 4+ WAR.
Steamer currently projects the following for him: 585 PAs .328 BABIP 98 wRC+ 1.1 BsR -4.7 Def 1.5 WAR
That BsR number looks way too low (he was 5.9 in 350 PAs last season). The 98 wRC+ is plausible but he also clearly has upside; even if you regress his BABIP he's improved offensively each year in the majors and he was in the 70+% range in xBA and hard hit% last season. With his speed and batted ball profile I'd expect him to regularly outperform his xwOBA, which I don't think Steamer sees. (It'll be very interesting to see his ZiPS projection...)
We'll see how the offseason goes, but I think the Red Sox are on track to have the sort of roster where they can be a playoff team if a few things break right. Duran is the sort of guy who might break right; whereas swapping him out for Kiermaier or Rafaela or whatever is giving away that shot at upside potential.
Unless you can find a team that really believes in that upside potential and can get some back in return...
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 24, 2023 14:07:25 GMT -5
Do Steamer or any of these so called prediction sites ever get any real life stats even remotely correct ? Thats the beauty of baseball , it makes no sense , it’s unpredictable
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 24, 2023 14:08:34 GMT -5
The thing about shipping Duran out is: he's one of the few guys outside of Devers and Casas who has the chance to pop a big season, like 4+ WAR.
Steamer currently projects the following for him: 585 PAs .328 BABIP 98 wRC+ 1.1 BsR -4.7 Def 1.5 WAR
That BsR number looks way too low (he was 5.9 in 350 PAs last season). The 98 wRC+ is plausible but he also clearly has upside; even if you regress his BABIP he's improved offensively each year in the majors and he was in the 70+% range in xBA and hard hit% last season. With his speed and batted ball profile I'd expect him to regularly outperform his xwOBA, which I don't think Steamer sees. (It'll be very interesting to see his ZiPS projection...)
We'll see how the offseason goes, but I think the Red Sox are on track to have the sort of roster where they can be a playoff team if a few things break right. Duran is the sort of guy who might break right; whereas swapping him out for Kiermaier or Rafaela or whatever is giving away that shot at upside potential.
Unless you can find a team that really believes in that upside potential and can get some back in return...
I'd deal Duran but it absolutely has to be back for some real value. Definitely not looking to deal him for mediocre value. I think Duran is probably has a good shot a 2 WAR guy a year for the next few years. He's valuable but he's also one of the only ML roster guys who has potential surplus value. He makes the most sense to trade and hold on to at same point.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 24, 2023 14:16:12 GMT -5
Steamer likes Abreu, Duran and Rafaela all about equally. I also think they all have similar upsides. Yet I think Duran probably returns the most in a trade and fits the roster worse than Rafaela. So that’s pretty much what it comes down to for me.
I think we can all agree we don’t want them to give Duran away, but my thesis is he can be a big piece for something good, a pitcher or a higher level star outfielder, or whatever.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 24, 2023 15:31:38 GMT -5
Do Steamer or any of these so called prediction sites ever get any real life stats even remotely correct ? Thats the beauty of baseball , it makes no sense , it’s unpredictable they do a hell of a lot better than just vibes, which is why teams spend a lot of time and money building their own prediction models based on the much higher quality, proprietary data they have. I usually don’t pay much attention to Steamer, though, there are a lot of public projection systems that I like better.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 24, 2023 16:17:53 GMT -5
Does anyone have the most accurate site in terms of next predictions ? I’d like to see which ones come closer , just for curiosity sakes
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 24, 2023 18:10:46 GMT -5
Random OF thoughts from a hotel bar: -I'm skeptical that Duran could transition to LF as smoothly as people think - look at how long the adjustment to CF took, and factor in new position, new reads, new way of tracking the ball off the bat, Fenway negates his plus speed, etc. -I'm comfortable with and maybe even prefer penciling Abreu/Rafaela into a single outfield spot. They both deserve a chance, but giving them both starting roles is too risky -One of Verdugo or Duran should be traded - would want a significant overpay in the Sox' favor somewhere to move both -Duvall should be brought back. Technically anyone with a similar profile would be fine, but I dont know where else you get his combination of rh power bat/ good fit in Fenway / non-disastrous defense / low cost. Plus, we at least know his upside with this team is legit -Personally (and I get why others would disagree) I'm bullish on Yoshida playing at least a passable LF next year. Time to get used to MLB + time to learn the monster + the trouble advanced defensive stats have with Fenway + (hopefully) better defensive positioning from the coaches (did it seem to anyone else like this was especially bad last year?) = a chance I'm willing to take
I'm not entirely sure what that all means (I *think* it's Yoshida LF / Rafaela CF / Duvall RF with Abreu/Duran fighting over a spot to fill in when needed vs RHP and Ref on the bench) but I see that as at worst a stable foundation to build on
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 24, 2023 19:41:21 GMT -5
Maybe it’s semantics, but jump isn’t equal to range to me. Range also includes reaction, speed, route , etc and is the total encompassment of balls the outfielder can get to and catch. It’s no more or less important to me whether he gets to the ball and can’t catch it or can’t get there at all. Then you also consider errors but that’s a smaller component. His OAA isn’t just below what you should expect for a center fielder it is literally tied for the worst among CFs with over 500 innings there. Whether we call it range or defense or however you want to frame it, Duran in center is a massive weak spot and I don’t have the same hope for improvement (based on the prior 5 years of no improvement, though the fact he’s come this far is great). We will see what the Red Sox think but my personal preference is he’s either in left or not on the roster. Adding in likely offensive regression and the chance that another team is more bullish on his defense upside than I am, plus what should be a good return, plus the Red Sox lefty heavy set up, and that’s why I’m pro trading him. I may be misunderstanding what you're getting at in the bold. 'Jump' is a metric which you define precisely as range - those are the 3 factors which make-up 'jump'. So when you say 'range' you are precisely describing 'jump', which I would agree is the best way to describe a player's range and not range in terms of 'range run value'. I think we generally agree, it's just confusing because 'jump' measures range while 'range' (range run value) measures overall (non-arm) defensive performance. And we both see eye-to-eye that he was an average outfielder, but below average centerfielder, last year (and of course worse in previous years). My main reason for wanting to keep Duran, and keep him in CF (for now), is that I'm bullish on either one of Duran or Rafaela turning into a long-term above average (or better) centerfielder. If Duran fails defensively then you can shift him to left and call up Rafaela, and if he fails offensively, you can then send him to the bench or tripe-A. If they both work out, then it's no different than the 'too much pitching' problem we never seem to have. If they both fail, then they have Abreu, Refsnyder, Hamilton and hopefully a RHH Right-fielder, who can play CF in a pinch. I suppose that isn't all that different than adding a centerfielder, just with a bit more emphasis on offense than defense.
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