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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 24, 2023 20:20:21 GMT -5
Maybe it’s semantics, but jump isn’t equal to range to me. Range also includes reaction, speed, route , etc and is the total encompassment of balls the outfielder can get to and catch. It’s no more or less important to me whether he gets to the ball and can’t catch it or can’t get there at all. Then you also consider errors but that’s a smaller component. His OAA isn’t just below what you should expect for a center fielder it is literally tied for the worst among CFs with over 500 innings there. Whether we call it range or defense or however you want to frame it, Duran in center is a massive weak spot and I don’t have the same hope for improvement (based on the prior 5 years of no improvement, though the fact he’s come this far is great). We will see what the Red Sox think but my personal preference is he’s either in left or not on the roster. Adding in likely offensive regression and the chance that another team is more bullish on his defense upside than I am, plus what should be a good return, plus the Red Sox lefty heavy set up, and that’s why I’m pro trading him. I may be misunderstanding what you're getting at in the bold. 'Jump' is a metric which you define precisely as range - those are the 3 factors which make-up 'jump'. So when you say 'range' you are precisely describing 'jump', which I would agree is the best way to describe a player's range and not range in terms of 'range run value'. I think we generally agree, it's just confusing because 'jump' measures range while 'range' (range run value) measures overall (non-arm) defensive performance. And we both see eye-to-eye that he was an average outfielder, but below average centerfielder, last year (and of course worse in previous years). My main reason for wanting to keep Duran, and keep him in CF (for now), is that I'm bullish on either one of Duran or Rafaela turning into a long-term above average (or better) centerfielder. If Duran fails defensively then you can shift him to left and call up Rafaela, and if he fails offensively, you can then send him to the bench or tripe-A. If they both work out, then it's no different than the 'too much pitching' problem we never seem to have. If they both fail, then they have Abreu, Refsnyder, Hamilton and hopefully a RHH Right-fielder, who can play CF in a pinch. I suppose that isn't all that different than adding a centerfielder, just with a bit more emphasis on offense than defense. You're right on the wording, I was thinking of burst for some reason when you said jump. Anyways, we agree on the overall outcome being what matters and where Duran stacks up. I think you make a fair case but personally I'm just not liking the bet that Duran can improve much more defensively (especially with his foot issue) and if he can't I don't see a great path to shifting him to left, because I assume either Yoshida is there and they brought in a full time DH, or Yoshida is the DH and they brought in a full time LF. There is I suppose an option of going Abreu/Refsnyder as the left field combo which could eventually be shifted around, or starting the year with the DH as a sort of rotating role, but I'm not wild about that plan as I think they need to add another full time righty bat. I do love watching Duran on offense, just with the team as constructed I think he's the best option to move. I'd be more than happy to be wrong, they keep Duran, and he takes another step forward in center though.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 26, 2023 1:29:01 GMT -5
I don't get why people want to trade Duran. He turns singles into doubles like no one else I've ever seen. He had 34 doubles in 332 ABs. That's downright Speakerian. I also thought his defense improved (not Speakerian, though) and by all accounts he worked hard on it. I wanted to trade him this time last year but now I want to see him take another step forward.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 26, 2023 9:13:54 GMT -5
I don't get why people want to trade Duran. He turns singles into doubles like no one else I've ever seen. He had 34 doubles in 332 ABs. That's downright Speakerian. I also thought his defense improved (not Speakerian, though) and by all accounts he worked hard on it. I wanted to trade him this time last year but now I want to see him take another step forward. I feel like he’s one of those players who’s upside far outweighs his trade value so you’d be trading him for something that has a high floor but low ceiling and I don’t see the point in something like that. Of course he’s not untouchable so he’s very tradable but I don’t see the value being worth what he could possibly be.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2023 10:05:08 GMT -5
I've changed my tune with Duran. I would prefer they keep him. He showed me something last year.
He was dynamic as a leadoff guy, turning all those singles into doubles and showcasing his unbelieavable speed. He was one of the few reasons to watch as I found his style of play to be electrifying.
I think he showed great strides defensively. I didnt think he was a huge liability. I think he can be adequate in CF and be decent in LF. While ge could cover the ground in RF his arm probably doesnt work there.
I'd prefer him to stay over Verdugo and Abreu.
They could use Duran atop the order.
I do have a worrisome concern about him and that's him being hampered by injuries. I dont know how well hell recover from his toe issues and while I always felt Ellsbury's blazing speed felt harnessed or controlled I do have concerns that Duran's style is more raw and reckless, where he seems to throw his body around more. And I do think injury concerns will become more prevalent with him.
I have no desire to see him traded unless it's part of a deal for Soto, which i dont see happening. Personallyif they can a way to do this, I'd love a 1-2 punch of Duran and Vaughn Grissom atop the lineup setting the table for Devers, RH masher, Duvall perhaps, or a returning Turner or even JDM back as a cleanup hitter, as I'm not enthused with Teoscar Hernandez, and Casas and I'd assume Story then Yoshida.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 26, 2023 10:11:16 GMT -5
I've changed my tune with Duran. I would prefer they keep him. He showed me something last year. He was dynamic as a leadoff guy, turning all those singles into doubles and showcasing his unbelieavable speed. He was one of the few reasons to watch as I found his style of play to be electrifying. I think he showed great strides defensively. I didnt think he was a huge liability. I think he can be adequate in CF and be decent in LF. While ge could cover the ground in RF his arm probably doesnt work there. I'd prefer him to stay over Verdugo and Abreu. They could use Duran atop the order. I do have a worrisome concern about him and that's him being hampered by injuries. I dont know how well hell recover from his toe issues and while I always felt Ellsbury's blazing speed felt harnessed or controlled I do have concerns that Duran's style is more raw and reckless, where he seems to throw his body around more. And I do think injury concerns will become more prevalent with him. I have no desire to see him traded unless it's part of a deal for Soto, which i dont see happening. Personallyif they can a way to do this, I'd love a 1-2 punch of Duran and Vaughn Grissom atop the lineup setting the table for Devers, RH masher, Duvall perhaps, or a returning Turner or even JDM back as a cleanup hitter, as I'm not enthused with Teoscar Hernandez, and Casas and I'd assume Story then Yoshida. This plan pretty much guarantees one of the worst defenses in baseball again. Not to say that’s necessarily an unacceptable outcome, you can think the offensive trade offs are enough, but personally would really prefer they try to improve on the defensive side.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2023 11:22:45 GMT -5
I've changed my tune with Duran. I would prefer they keep him. He showed me something last year. He was dynamic as a leadoff guy, turning all those singles into doubles and showcasing his unbelieavable speed. He was one of the few reasons to watch as I found his style of play to be electrifying. I think he showed great strides defensively. I didnt think he was a huge liability. I think he can be adequate in CF and be decent in LF. While ge could cover the ground in RF his arm probably doesnt work there. I'd prefer him to stay over Verdugo and Abreu. They could use Duran atop the order. I do have a worrisome concern about him and that's him being hampered by injuries. I dont know how well hell recover from his toe issues and while I always felt Ellsbury's blazing speed felt harnessed or controlled I do have concerns that Duran's style is more raw and reckless, where he seems to throw his body around more. And I do think injury concerns will become more prevalent with him. I have no desire to see him traded unless it's part of a deal for Soto, which i dont see happening. Personallyif they can a way to do this, I'd love a 1-2 punch of Duran and Vaughn Grissom atop the lineup setting the table for Devers, RH masher, Duvall perhaps, or a returning Turner or even JDM back as a cleanup hitter, as I'm not enthused with Teoscar Hernandez, and Casas and I'd assume Story then Yoshida. This plan pretty much guarantees one of the worst defenses in baseball again. Not to say that’s necessarily an unacceptable outcome, you can think the offensive trade offs are enough, but personally would really prefer they try to improve on the defensive side. Dont see the need to bring in a retread like Kiermaier when they're already knee deep in LH hitting OF. They might as well just hand a CF job to Rafaela if it's just fix the defense and dont worry about the lineup sucking. And toward that end I'm sure they can find a light hitting utility 2b type, but not only was the Sox defense awful, the lineup was pretty light as well, as none of the supposedly available 2b are Pedroia like on defense. A team at Fenway should be atop or near the top in runs scored which the Sox clearly werent. If you can't have both simultaneously I'd prefer a roster with a solid lineup and defense coming off the bench like they had in 04.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 26, 2023 11:25:35 GMT -5
Last year the Red Sox had a historically bad -50 OAA, but two-thirds (-33) of that was tied to 3 players: Kiké (-14), Casas (-10) and Devers (-9).
Kiké is gone and there's little to be done about Casas & Devers aside from hoping they improve. As Devers has been better in the past and Casas was a rookie, we can have reason for optimism.
Yoshida was also a rookie (-8 OAA) and playing in a difficult home outfield (which negatively affects OAA), so there's hope for improvement there as well (assuming he isn't DHing).
A change in CF could provide a minor defensive improvement, but the real improvement comes from the above players/changes and a healthy Story.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 26, 2023 11:28:40 GMT -5
I think he [Jarren Duran] showed great strides defensively. I didnt think he was a huge liability. I think he can be adequate in CF and be decent in LF. While ge could cover the ground in RF his arm probably doesnt work there. I mean by the advanced defensive numbers you could argue Duran already is adequate. In 557 innings in CF last year, he was at -5 runs defensive runs saved, but 0 Outs Above Average (i.e. neutral). The eye test backs that up - it’s not frightening when the ball is hit in his direction anymore! The best supplementary piece to Duran that accounts for his weaknesses is probably a right handed defensive-minded CF… which we may already have in the form of Rafaela. In terms of defensive concerns this might be a zag but… are we sure Alex Verdugo is going to be a Gold Glove caliber RF again next year, or was 2023 an outlier? His career defensive numbers have been solid on the whole but still remarkably inconsistent (like much else in his career).* Even advanced stats don’t completely agree on his 2023 - with DRS at 9 but OAA at 1. (Personally I thought he was excellent.) Verdugo came into the year ready to go defensively after being challenged/called out by Cora - do we know what Verdugo we’re going to get come Spring Training 2024 if he’s even still on the team? *Advanced defensive stats here: www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF Caveat that he was allegedly playing on an injured foot in 2022.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 26, 2023 11:33:40 GMT -5
Last year the Red Sox had a historically bad -50 OAA, but two-thirds (-33) of that was tied to 3 players: Kiké (-14), Casas (-10) and Devers (-9). Kiké is gone and there's little to be done about Casas & Devers aside from hoping they improve. As Devers has been better in the past and Casas was a rookie, we can have reason for optimism. Yoshida was also a rookie (-8 OAA) and playing in a difficult home outfield (which negatively affects OAA), so there's hope for improvement there as well (assuming he isn't DHing). A change in CF could provide a minor defensive improvement, but the real improvement comes from the above players/changes and a healthy Story. A change in CF would not be a minor improvement. Sliding Yoshida to DH, Duran to LF and bringing in a good CF could be a +20 OAA difference. Also Grissom is a bad defender, the Red Sox were also very bad at 2B last year and this prevents them from improving there, where they could also potentially look for a +10 year over year gain. I wouldn’t expect them to do all of that, but I really disagree that getting a better CF is a minor improvement.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 26, 2023 11:34:53 GMT -5
I think he [Jarren Duran] showed great strides defensively. I didnt think he was a huge liability. I think he can be adequate in CF and be decent in LF. While ge could cover the ground in RF his arm probably doesnt work there. I mean by the advanced defensive numbers you could argue Duran already is adequate. In 557 innings in CF last year, he was at -5 runs defensive runs saved, but 0 Outs Above Average (i.e. neutral). The eye test backs that up - it’s not frightening when the ball is hit in his direction anymore! The best supplementary piece to Duran that accounts for his weaknesses is probably a right handed defensive-minded CF… which we may already have in the form of Rafaela. In terms of defensive concerns this might be a zag but… are we sure Alex Verdugo is going to be a Gold Glove caliber RF again next year, or was 2023 an outlier? His career defensive numbers have been solid on the whole but still remarkably inconsistent (like much else in his career).* Even advanced stats don’t completely agree on his 2023 - with DRS at 9 but OAA at 1. (Personally I thought he was excellent.) Verdugo came into the year ready to go defensively after being challenged/called out by Cora - do we know what Verdugo we’re going to get come Spring Training 2024 if he’s even still on the team? *Advanced defensive stats here: www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF Caveat that he was allegedly playing on an injured foot in 2022. OAA is outfield wide not specific to CF, were it relative to other center fielders Duran would have a very big negative number. There was no center fielder with as many innings as Duran and a lower OAA.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 26, 2023 11:45:18 GMT -5
I mean by the advanced defensive numbers you could argue Duran already is adequate. In 557 innings in CF last year, he was at -5 runs defensive runs saved, but 0 Outs Above Average (i.e. neutral). The eye test backs that up - it’s not frightening when the ball is hit in his direction anymore! The best supplementary piece to Duran that accounts for his weaknesses is probably a right handed defensive-minded CF… which we may already have in the form of Rafaela. In terms of defensive concerns this might be a zag but… are we sure Alex Verdugo is going to be a Gold Glove caliber RF again next year, or was 2023 an outlier? His career defensive numbers have been solid on the whole but still remarkably inconsistent (like much else in his career).* Even advanced stats don’t completely agree on his 2023 - with DRS at 9 but OAA at 1. (Personally I thought he was excellent.) Verdugo came into the year ready to go defensively after being challenged/called out by Cora - do we know what Verdugo we’re going to get come Spring Training 2024 if he’s even still on the team? *Advanced defensive stats here: www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF Caveat that he was allegedly playing on an injured foot in 2022. OAA is outfield wide not specific to CF, were it relative to other center fielders Duran would have a very big negative number. There was no center fielder with as many innings as Duran and a lower OAA. Ah, that is helpful to know. Ironically, one of the few qualified CF who was worse than Duvall in OAA was… Adam Duvall? It’s kinda weird that they never tried Duvall in left and Duran in center (at least to my recollection). baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2023&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=100&pos=8&roles=&viz=hide
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2023 11:52:07 GMT -5
I mean by the advanced defensive numbers you could argue Duran already is adequate. In 557 innings in CF last year, he was at -5 runs defensive runs saved, but 0 Outs Above Average (i.e. neutral). The eye test backs that up - it’s not frightening when the ball is hit in his direction anymore! The best supplementary piece to Duran that accounts for his weaknesses is probably a right handed defensive-minded CF… which we may already have in the form of Rafaela. In terms of defensive concerns this might be a zag but… are we sure Alex Verdugo is going to be a Gold Glove caliber RF again next year, or was 2023 an outlier? His career defensive numbers have been solid on the whole but still remarkably inconsistent (like much else in his career).* Even advanced stats don’t completely agree on his 2023 - with DRS at 9 but OAA at 1. (Personally I thought he was excellent.) Verdugo came into the year ready to go defensively after being challenged/called out by Cora - do we know what Verdugo we’re going to get come Spring Training 2024 if he’s even still on the team? *Advanced defensive stats here: www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF Caveat that he was allegedly playing on an injured foot in 2022. OAA is outfield wide not specific to CF, were it relative to other center fielders Duran would have a very big negative number. There was no center fielder with as many innings as Duran and a lower OAA. Young players can get better and improve. Its not written is stone that they cant get better. My guess is Casas will be better at 1b with more experience and if the Sox got Grisson, while he would probably fail at SS, it wouldn't mean at age 23 that he can't improve at 2b, even Valdez for that matter. Just like hitters someone need atbats to improve so do fielders. I remember Wade Boggs and his captain clang reputation. If it were 40 years ago you'd be reciting his past defensive stats to me without the realization that Boggs would work his butt off and become a good fielding 3b. Or you'd tell me Rich Gedman cant be an acceptable catcher behind the plate, which he certainly became over the next few years. These numbers arent written in stone and can change. I thought Duran was a big improvement defensively as it's obvious he worked hard on it. I thought he was about adequate, certainly not gold glove caliber, but that doesnt mean there cant be more strides made with additional experience although that toe injury does concern me that progress could be impeded. You have to give young players a chance to improve defensively the same way you give them a chance to improve offensively. Doesnt mean it'll work but if somebody displays a very good work ethic and takes to coaching, you have a chance.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 26, 2023 11:58:25 GMT -5
Of course young players can improve I’m not saying anything is set in stone. I’ve made the point several times that I think Casas can and will look much better defensively next year. I even still believe Devers has a good chance of being better, and I’m somewhat optimistic on Yoshida.
However, when you have a roster full of guys who are likely to be bad defenders the most likely outcome is bad defense. My preference is to replace one of those spots with a guy who is likely to be a good defender, and the one Id pick to replace is Duran for a number of reasons. As for Grissom I don’t hate the suggestion just pointing out you’re taking a position where the Red Sox were the worst in baseball and probably not improving it much, but for his bat maybe it’s worth a shot.
As an aside, other than Verdugo, Chang and Story pretty much every Red Sox player hit his worst case defensive outcome last year. I wonder if some of that was coaching or positioning or what. Hopefully there’s a behind the scenes improvement to make there too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2023 12:08:41 GMT -5
Of course young players can improve I’m not saying anything is set in stone. I’ve made the point several times that I think Casas can and will look much better defensively next year. I even still believe Devers has a good chance of being better, and I’m somewhat optimistic on Yoshida. However, when you have a roster full of guys who are likely to be bad defenders the most likely outcome is bad defense. My preference is to replace one of those spots with a guy who is likely to be a good defender, and the one Id pick to replace is Duran for a number of reasons. As for Grissom I don’t hate the suggestion just pointing out you’re taking a position where the Red Sox were the worst in baseball and probably not improving it much, but for his bat maybe it’s worth a shot. As an aside, other than Verdugo, Chang and Story pretty much every Red Sox player hit his worst case defensive outcome last year. I wonder if some of that was coaching or positioning or what. Hopefully there’s a behind the scenes improvement to make there too. They do have Rafaela so that's a place to start. I think having a bench where you can go defense in the later I brings in conjunction with a solid bullpen can pay dividends. I never forgot his the Sox could take Pokey Reese, Mientkiewicz, Kapler, and Roberts off the bench and improve the late inning defense.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 26, 2023 12:14:06 GMT -5
Of course young players can improve I’m not saying anything is set in stone. I’ve made the point several times that I think Casas can and will look much better defensively next year. I even still believe Devers has a good chance of being better, and I’m somewhat optimistic on Yoshida. However, when you have a roster full of guys who are likely to be bad defenders the most likely outcome is bad defense. My preference is to replace one of those spots with a guy who is likely to be a good defender, and the one Id pick to replace is Duran for a number of reasons. As for Grissom I don’t hate the suggestion just pointing out you’re taking a position where the Red Sox were the worst in baseball and probably not improving it much, but for his bat maybe it’s worth a shot. As an aside, other than Verdugo, Chang and Story pretty much every Red Sox player hit his worst case defensive outcome last year. I wonder if some of that was coaching or positioning or what. Hopefully there’s a behind the scenes improvement to make there too. I believe (but someone correct me if I'm wrong) that OAA is much better than DRS at accounting for positioning. The Red Sox were worst in the majors by OAA (-50) but only 7th worst by DRS (-20). That might imply that they were pretty good at positioning and their skill in that department partially compensated for a defense that otherwise would have been even worse.
(Incidentally, UZR had the Red Sox as 14th best in the majors at defense. It had them at +1.1 - above average! I may never look at UZR again.)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 26, 2023 12:52:09 GMT -5
I felt like a big problem with the 2023 roster was they didn't have solid late-inning defensive replacements to help the bullpen hold leads. This is why I would start by acquiring one of each at MI (probably via trade) and CF, both RHH. This could allow you to be more forgiving of the starter's glove. Imprudent, IMO, to count on Rafaela to be ready on Opening Day. I'd love for him to work on pitch recognition in Worcester in the first half and be a bonus acquisition in the second half.
N.B. My apologies if I've already said something similar five times in five different threads. Can't wait until there are actual moves to pontificate on!!
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Post by asm19 on Nov 26, 2023 13:33:38 GMT -5
I felt like a big problem with the 2023 roster was they didn't have solid late-inning defensive replacements to help the bullpen hold leads. This is why I would start by acquiring one of each at MI (probably via trade) and CF, both RHH. This could allow you to be more forgiving of the starter's glove. Imprudent, IMO, to count on Rafaela to be ready on Opening Day. I'd love for him to work on pitch recognition in Worcester in the first half and be a bonus acquisition in the second half. N.B. My apologies if I've already said something similar five times in five different threads. Can't wait until there are actual moves to pontificate on!! What’s weird is that a team that had a really, really bad defense, and was homer-prone (near the bottom of the league in HR/9) had the fewest blown saves of any team in the league: sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/blown-saves-stats-most-blown-saves-teams-players-bm03/More often this year bad defense (and bad pitching) would prevent games that could have been close. But I imagine much of that is randomness (ie defense being bad down 4-3 in the 6th vs being up 4-3 in the 8th) and could easily flip the other way if they don’t improve next year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 26, 2023 15:25:38 GMT -5
Last year the Red Sox had a historically bad -50 OAA, but two-thirds (-33) of that was tied to 3 players: Kiké (-14), Casas (-10) and Devers (-9). Kiké is gone and there's little to be done about Casas & Devers aside from hoping they improve. As Devers has been better in the past and Casas was a rookie, we can have reason for optimism. Yoshida was also a rookie (-8 OAA) and playing in a difficult home outfield (which negatively affects OAA), so there's hope for improvement there as well (assuming he isn't DHing). A change in CF could provide a minor defensive improvement, but the real improvement comes from the above players/changes and a healthy Story. A change in CF would not be a minor improvement. Sliding Yoshida to DH, Duran to LF and bringing in a good CF could be a +20 OAA difference.Also Grissom is a bad defender, the Red Sox were also very bad at 2B last year and this prevents them from improving there, where they could also potentially look for a +10 year over year gain. I wouldn’t expect them to do all of that, but I really disagree that getting a better CF is a minor improvement. You say a change in CF isn't a minor improvement, but then make a case for how changing 3 positions (CF/LF/DH) could be a major improvement. You're making a claim, creating a case for something else and then not supporting your case with any backing (players and/or stats). The average of 35 qualified LFers last season was -2.5 OAA while centerfielders (38 qualified) were +5.6. That would be an 11.1 OAA turn by changing the 3 positions (2 defensive), but that doesn't account for the negative impact of Fenway's LF on OAA and assumes that neither Duran nor Yoshida improve in their 2nd year as full-time MLB starters. Then there is the issue at DH, which isn't affected defensively, but by making the DH a LHH OF-only player, Cora's roster flexibility is badly restricted.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 26, 2023 15:45:22 GMT -5
A change in CF would not be a minor improvement. Sliding Yoshida to DH, Duran to LF and bringing in a good CF could be a +20 OAA difference.Also Grissom is a bad defender, the Red Sox were also very bad at 2B last year and this prevents them from improving there, where they could also potentially look for a +10 year over year gain. I wouldn’t expect them to do all of that, but I really disagree that getting a better CF is a minor improvement. You say a change in CF isn't a minor improvement, but then make a case for how changing 3 positions (CF/LF/DH) could be a major improvement. You're making a claim, creating a case for something else and then not supporting your case with any backing (players and/or stats). The average of 35 qualified LFers last season was -2.5 OAA while centerfielders (38 qualified) were +5.6. That would be an 11.1 OAA turn by changing the 3 positions (2 defensive), but that doesn't account for the negative impact of Fenway's LF on OAA and assumes that neither Duran nor Yoshida improve in their 2nd year as full-time MLB starters. Then there is the issue at DH, which isn't affected defensively, but by making the DH a LHH OF-only player, Cora's roster flexibility is badly restricted. I wasn't citing the stats because I've done that already and don't want to be too repetitive her but sure here you go. Kiermaier in and Duran out is a +13 OAA swing based on 2023 numbers (Bader or Edman rate similarly to Kiermaier and Rafaela has similar expectations). If you assume Duran can be neutral in LF (which he was in 2023) and you move Yoshida to DH it's +21 collectively. Replacing Duran alone is a huge swing though, whether they leave Yoshida in left or not. I didn't think I needed to lay this out so stepwise, but I see how my points got conflated so here it is - you can: 1) make a big improvement (+10 or more) by getting a better centerfielder than Duran and 2) make a big improvement by putting an average outfielder in left instead of Yoshida and 3) make a huge improvement by doing both things, which you only need to acquire one new player to achieve. Each of those first two steps by themselves is a big improvement, including just replacing Duran in center, though. It's the equivalent of replacing Devers with an average defensive 3B. Re; your Fenway argument on Yoshida's numbers, I buy it to some extent but it would be more convincing to me if the Red Sox didn't have an equal number of innings last season in LF that were neutral by OAA, while Yoshida was a -8. And in 2020 and 2021 the Red Sox rated above league average in left by OAA. Re; the DH point I agree which is one reason I've suggested they might trade Duran rather than sliding him over. In this scenario they would keep Yoshida in left and get the big defensive improvement at just one OF position instead of two.
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Post by gerry on Nov 26, 2023 18:07:03 GMT -5
A case for the Sox kids. As usual, your points are well made and would like to build around them.
I would be extremely happy with a still evolving Duran’s increasingly decent glove plus his unique offensive powerhouse in LF. His speed and maturity may make him better than average in front of the monster. Why not keep his exciting play on our own field. He is a reason to watch the games. Floor: Plus offense, neutral defense in LF.
Meanwhile an acclimated, well rested Yoshida is more likely to provide his early macho man redux as DH. Plus offense, improved LF defense. Floor: Plus offense despite ~ 20HR power.
That leaves two big RHB needed, which can come from CF and/or 2B as long as defense improves at both positions.
Rafaela showed just enough offense to be worth considering as the defense first answer at either of those positions as long as the other one is a big bat with decent glove. Much improved defense, an offense at minimum neutral or near league average, except with his great speed, a combo of Rafaella and Duran batting 9 and 1 could be beyond dynamic. I understand why “not now” but then again “why not now?” Floor: Plus defense, average offense.
Losing Verdugo’s RF defense can not be taken lightly. Floor: plus defense in RF, above average offense. Any trade, individual or package, must seriously improve the team. A 2024 OF of Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo could be special.
Finally, assuming home run power from Devers, Casas, Storey, and a new RHB or two; Yoshida’s bat to ball skills at DH; the speed game from Duran, Rafaella, Storey, whomever; this could be a relentless and unnerving offense.
And significant up the middle defensive improvements in Storey, new RHB and Rafaela will remove more than half the 2023 negatives at SS, 2B and CF.
All in all, I hope they hang onto Duran as LF, move Masa to DH, elevate Rafaella now or soon. And if Dugie is traded he needs to be replaced with someone better on both sides of the ball.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 26, 2023 22:24:03 GMT -5
I wasn't citing the stats because I've done that already and don't want to be too repetitive her but sure here you go. Kiermaier in and Duran out is a +13 OAA swing based on 2023 numbers (Bader or Edman rate similarly to Kiermaier and Rafaela has similar expectations). If you assume Duran can be neutral in LF (which he was in 2023) and you move Yoshida to DH it's +21 collectively. Replacing Duran alone is a huge swing though, whether they leave Yoshida in left or not. I didn't think I needed to lay this out so stepwise, but I see how my points got conflated so here it is - you can: 1) make a big improvement (+10 or more) by getting a better centerfielder than Duran and 2) make a big improvement by putting an average outfielder in left instead of Yoshida and 3) make a huge improvement by doing both things, which you only need to acquire one new player to achieve. Each of those first two steps by themselves is a big improvement, including just replacing Duran in center, though. It's the equivalent of replacing Devers with an average defensive 3B. Re; your Fenway argument on Yoshida's numbers, I buy it to some extent but it would be more convincing to me if the Red Sox didn't have an equal number of innings last season in LF that were neutral by OAA, while Yoshida was a -8. And in 2020 and 2021 the Red Sox rated above league average in left by OAA. Re; the DH point I agree which is one reason I've suggested they might trade Duran rather than sliding him over. In this scenario they would keep Yoshida in left and get the big defensive improvement at just one OF position instead of two. You're all over the place here, but you end on only replacing Duran with Kiermaier while citing last-year's stats as your backing. Kiermaier has been the best outfield defender over the last decade and it's clear he's an upgrade defensively, however if we're sticking with last year's numbers, he was ~1.2 wins (fWAR) better defensively but ~1.5 wins worse offensively. He'll be 34 next year and likely to decline, but even before the decline this would be a downgrade - so why would you want this change? It also removes the ability to shift Duran to left if Rafaela is crushing the ball in triple-A. Over the last 5 full seasons 2021 is an outlier in terms of OAA for Boston LFers while 2020 was only 1/3rd of a season: 2018: -3 OAA (13th-15th) 2019: -9 OAA (20th-21st) *2020: 0 OAA (7th-10th) - only 60 games played 2021: -1 OAA (9th-11th) 2022: -9 OAA (24th-25th) 2023: -9 OAA (21st-22nd) I broke down some of the issues with Fenway LF in the Yoshida thread, but you can also take a look at the fielding chart from Baseball Savant and see the concern (would be more helpful if they had split home/away).
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 27, 2023 10:25:58 GMT -5
I wasn't citing the stats because I've done that already and don't want to be too repetitive her but sure here you go. Kiermaier in and Duran out is a +13 OAA swing based on 2023 numbers (Bader or Edman rate similarly to Kiermaier and Rafaela has similar expectations). If you assume Duran can be neutral in LF (which he was in 2023) and you move Yoshida to DH it's +21 collectively. Replacing Duran alone is a huge swing though, whether they leave Yoshida in left or not. I didn't think I needed to lay this out so stepwise, but I see how my points got conflated so here it is - you can: 1) make a big improvement (+10 or more) by getting a better centerfielder than Duran and 2) make a big improvement by putting an average outfielder in left instead of Yoshida and 3) make a huge improvement by doing both things, which you only need to acquire one new player to achieve. Each of those first two steps by themselves is a big improvement, including just replacing Duran in center, though. It's the equivalent of replacing Devers with an average defensive 3B. Re; your Fenway argument on Yoshida's numbers, I buy it to some extent but it would be more convincing to me if the Red Sox didn't have an equal number of innings last season in LF that were neutral by OAA, while Yoshida was a -8. And in 2020 and 2021 the Red Sox rated above league average in left by OAA. Re; the DH point I agree which is one reason I've suggested they might trade Duran rather than sliding him over. In this scenario they would keep Yoshida in left and get the big defensive improvement at just one OF position instead of two. You're all over the place here, but you end on only replacing Duran with Kiermaier while citing last-year's stats as your backing. Kiermaier has been the best outfield defender over the last decade and it's clear he's an upgrade defensively, however if we're sticking with last year's numbers, he was ~1.2 wins (fWAR) better defensively but ~1.5 wins worse offensively. He'll be 34 next year and likely to decline, but even before the decline this would be a downgrade - so why would you want this change? It also removes the ability to shift Duran to left if Rafaela is crushing the ball in triple-A. Over the last 5 full seasons 2021 is an outlier in terms of OAA for Boston LFers while 2020 was only 1/3rd of a season: 2018: -3 OAA (13th-15th) 2019: -9 OAA (20th-21st) *2020: 0 OAA (7th-10th) - only 60 games played 2021: -1 OAA (9th-11th) 2022: -9 OAA (24th-25th) 2023: -9 OAA (21st-22nd) I broke down some of the issues with Fenway LF in the Yoshida thread, but you can also take a look at the fielding chart from Baseball Savant and see the concern (would be more helpful if they had split home/away). Will try to be more succinct this time, you want the change from Duran to Kiermaier to 1) improve a terrible defense and 2) get the return from Duran who of all our abundance of left handed and/or young outfielders is the one I most prefer to move, because I don’t think he has a position on the Red Sox. Anyways Kiermaier is just the most obvious candidate, Bader, Edman and others would also be improvements and those two will project better for 2024 as well. On the left field point you cited a bunch of rankings which if anything I think prove my point that they aren’t locked into having terrible OAA rankings there, though I agree Fenway unfairly hurts them.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 27, 2023 15:24:33 GMT -5
Alex Bregman has a 1 year, 28 mil expiring deal for 2024, before going into free agency represented by Scott Boras.
Is there any reason to believe this former Shortshop prospect and now third baseman... can also play second base?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 27, 2023 16:24:28 GMT -5
Happy 27th Birthday to Eloy Jimenez, whom Rob Bradfrod wants to acquire from the White Sox along with Dylan Cease (the headliner) for Duran, Yorke, and Perales.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 27, 2023 16:59:21 GMT -5
Happy 27th Birthday to Eloy Jimenez, whom Rob Bradfrod wants to acquire from the White Sox along with Dylan Cease (the headliner) for Duran, Yorke, and Perales. Could mostly care less about Jimenez but if they can get cease for that I wouldn't hate it.
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