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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 10:44:26 GMT -5
Some stuff that stood out to me on the ZiPS projections... - I think Szymborski has just the right tone about this team: "The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in... To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart." There just aren't any obvious upgrades for the offense unless they get Ohtani or make a big trade; otherwise, the best they can really do is tread water and hope things break right with underperformers rebounding (Story, Devers, Yoshida) and young guys taking a step up. Before 2020 and 2021, Chaim Bloom had made the point that " the front-line talent on our major league roster can play with anybody" - something that was certainly true in '21 as a middle of the order of Devers/Xander/JD with Eovaldi anchoring the rotation (bolstered by a supporting cast of Schwarber, Kiké career year, etc) nearly got them to the World Series. That point just might not be the case anymore. As an example, the ZIPS projection for Baltimore's positional group surpasses the Red Sox at nearly every spot - and the Orioles are paying their guys like a combined 29 cents. I don't want to take this conversation in a backwards looking direction, but where they stand now makes the last two deadlines so the more brutal in hindsight. You missed possibly A) acquiring more talent that could be used to help this team in 2024, or B) you may have missed your window by not being aggressive enough when you had more high-end talent and were just a few games out of the playoffs. Looking forwards now... is this team as constituted worth a win-now splash, or would they be better off just extending Casas/Bello/etc. and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel to get here? (As someone prone to rose-colored glasses, this is not something I thought I would ever contemplate!) I think 2021 was an example, not of an extremely solid roster, but of a team where things broke mostly right. And assuming this offseason goes as expected (they add, like, Montgomery, a mid-tier starter, a RH bat, and trade for a second baseman), they will be - for the fourth straight season - in a place where they could be about as good as they were in 2021 if things break mostly right.
In 2021 their 3 best hitters by wRC+ were Devers (133), Bogaerts (129), and JDM (126). It's totally doable for Devers, Casas, and Yoshida or the RH bat TBD to match that. Devers + Casas has more upside than that, actually, imo.
Eovaldi "anchored" that 2021 team... by having a career year. Maybe Bello, Sale, FA1, or FA2, or even Pivetta or Crawford, matches that performance.
It'll be nice to get to a point where things need to break wrong for them to miss the playoffs. That might have to wait for the Mayer/Anthony/Teel wave. But in the meantime, they'll enter 2024 with at least a decent shot of having a very fun season.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2023 10:45:48 GMT -5
Some stuff that stood out to me on the ZiPS projections... - I think Szymborski has just the right tone about this team: "The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in... To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart." There just aren't any obvious upgrades for the offense unless they get Ohtani or make a big trade; otherwise, the best they can really do is tread water and hope things break right with underperformers rebounding (Story, Devers, Yoshida) and young guys taking a step up. - The step down from Verdugo to Abreu is significant: 2.2 to 1.5 WAR, and that's with ZiPS giving Abreu a very generous defensive projection (better than Story and equal to Rafaela...?). - David Hamilton with a very generous projection on defense as well, and overall has him at 1.6 WAR. - Would have liked to see Devers get better than a 3.6 WAR projection. That's just not what you need from a franchise cornerstone. Even his 80th percentile projection (5.1) is fairly underwhelming.- Story gets a nice bouceback projection, all the way to a 102 OPS+. I'll take the over on 2.2 WAR if he really hits that well. - Just a 1.5 WAR projection for Duran, and an 80th percentile projection of only 2.6, even though he was on a 4 WAR pace last season. I wonder what the team's own projections say? And with regard to some of the trade talk here, I wonder what other teams' projections say? - The best catcher projection goes to Kyle Teel (1.5 WAR). #2 is... Ronaldo Hernandez (1.0). Wong is third at 0.8. - ZiPS is not too into Kutter Crawford; has him at only a 101 ERA-. Still likes Whitlock though (84). I'm not the biggest user of projections but the Devers one stands out above all to me. If Devers is only putting up 3.6 WAR in year two of his mega deal that contract is going to get ugly real quick. I would say that I believe the projection is low IMO. sure he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2023 but the prior two he put up a combined 9 and is just 27 years for the 2024 season. I think and certainly hope he comes closer to 4.5 than 3.1 but honestly even a 4-5 WAR would be semi disappointing considering the giant contract he got, to me it feels like those type of deals should only be for elite top of the market type guys. 4 WAR is still really good but would like to see Devers ascend to a higher tier than what we've seen rather than stagnate if not regress.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 10:56:34 GMT -5
Some stuff that stood out to me on the ZiPS projections... - I think Szymborski has just the right tone about this team: "The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in... To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart." There just aren't any obvious upgrades for the offense unless they get Ohtani or make a big trade; otherwise, the best they can really do is tread water and hope things break right with underperformers rebounding (Story, Devers, Yoshida) and young guys taking a step up. - The step down from Verdugo to Abreu is significant: 2.2 to 1.5 WAR, and that's with ZiPS giving Abreu a very generous defensive projection (better than Story and equal to Rafaela...?). - David Hamilton with a very generous projection on defense as well, and overall has him at 1.6 WAR. - Would have liked to see Devers get better than a 3.6 WAR projection. That's just not what you need from a franchise cornerstone. Even his 80th percentile projection (5.1) is fairly underwhelming.- Story gets a nice bouceback projection, all the way to a 102 OPS+. I'll take the over on 2.2 WAR if he really hits that well. - Just a 1.5 WAR projection for Duran, and an 80th percentile projection of only 2.6, even though he was on a 4 WAR pace last season. I wonder what the team's own projections say? And with regard to some of the trade talk here, I wonder what other teams' projections say? - The best catcher projection goes to Kyle Teel (1.5 WAR). #2 is... Ronaldo Hernandez (1.0). Wong is third at 0.8. - ZiPS is not too into Kutter Crawford; has him at only a 101 ERA-. Still likes Whitlock though (84). I'm not the biggest user of projections but the Devers one stands out above all to me. If Devers is only putting up 3.6 WAR in year two of his mega deal that contract is going to get ugly real quick. I would say that I believe the projection is low IMO. sure he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2023 but the prior two he put up a combined 9 and is just 27 years for the 2024 season. I think and certainly hope he comes closer to 4.5 than 3.1 but honestly even a 4-5 WAR would be semi disappointing considering the giant contract he got, to me it feels like those type of deals should only be for elite top of the market type guys. 4 WAR is still really good but would like to see Devers ascend to a higher tier than what we've seen rather than stagnate if not regress. 3.5-4 WAR is what his AAV would point to, but his bat has the potential to go nuclear any season and then you’re getting a ton of surplus value. Then over the next decade inflation will get to work and that 31M won’t feel as huge and the $/WAR will only go up. IMO the biggest thing for Devers will be his drive. Does he want to be one of the greats? Will he work his ass off to improve or be content with coasting and raking in the $300M? With his body type it will be hard for him to stay at 3B, but you obviously would like him to for as long as he possibly can. I hope after a down year post payday, he’s eager to prove that he’s one of the best players in baseball.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 29, 2023 11:07:37 GMT -5
I'm not the biggest user of projections but the Devers one stands out above all to me. If Devers is only putting up 3.6 WAR in year two of his mega deal that contract is going to get ugly real quick. I would say that I believe the projection is low IMO. sure he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2023 but the prior two he put up a combined 9 and is just 27 years for the 2024 season. I think and certainly hope he comes closer to 4.5 than 3.1 but honestly even a 4-5 WAR would be semi disappointing considering the giant contract he got, to me it feels like those type of deals should only be for elite top of the market type guys. 4 WAR is still really good but would like to see Devers ascend to a higher tier than what we've seen rather than stagnate if not regress. 3.5-4 WAR is what his AAV would point to, but his bat has the potential to go nuclear any season and then you’re getting a ton of surplus value. Then over the next decade inflation will get to work and that 31M won’t feel as huge and the $/WAR will only go up. IMO the biggest thing for Devers will be his drive. Does he want to be one of the greats? Will he work his ass off to improve or be content with coasting and raking in the $300M? With his body type it will be hard for him to stay at 3B, but you obviously would like him to for as long as he possibly can. I hope after a down year post payday, he’s eager to prove that he’s one of the best players in baseball. If down years continue to bring silver slugger awards, then I hope he continues to disappoint
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 29, 2023 11:15:02 GMT -5
3.5-4 WAR is what his AAV would point to... 3.5-4 AAV over the life of the contract. For it to be a "good" contract you'd like to see him doing better than AAV early in anticipation of an eventual decline. (Though in my opinion not every contract needs to be an economically "good" one to have been a good signing.)
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2023 11:20:02 GMT -5
I'm not the biggest user of projections but the Devers one stands out above all to me. If Devers is only putting up 3.6 WAR in year two of his mega deal that contract is going to get ugly real quick. I would say that I believe the projection is low IMO. sure he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2023 but the prior two he put up a combined 9 and is just 27 years for the 2024 season. I think and certainly hope he comes closer to 4.5 than 3.1 but honestly even a 4-5 WAR would be semi disappointing considering the giant contract he got, to me it feels like those type of deals should only be for elite top of the market type guys. 4 WAR is still really good but would like to see Devers ascend to a higher tier than what we've seen rather than stagnate if not regress. 3.5-4 WAR is what his AAV would point to, but his bat has the potential to go nuclear any season and then you’re getting a ton of surplus value. Then over the next decade inflation will get to work and that 31M won’t feel as huge and the $/WAR will only go up. IMO the biggest thing for Devers will be his drive. Does he want to be one of the greats? Will he work his ass off to improve or be content with coasting and raking in the $300M? With his body type it will be hard for him to stay at 3B, but you obviously would like him to for as long as he possibly can. I hope after a down year post payday, he’s eager to prove that he’s one of the best players in baseball. Sure 3.5-4 WAR might be about what his AAV would point to on the FA market and if he can average that every year over the course of the deal then it can still be an alright contract. I just worry if he's "only" putting up 3-4 WAR in the early stages of the deal when he's still in his 20s, it wouldn't give me warm and fuzzy feelings about the back half of the deal when he starts to age. Your 2nd point is perhaps true and scary to me, if he doesn't have the drive to want to stay in shape that thing can go off the rails real quick.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 29, 2023 11:20:58 GMT -5
A lot of interesting stuff in the ZiPS write up and agree with everything Dan said, but the most interesting to me is Rafaela. ZiPS is basically bought in on him, every time there has been a ZiPS write up about their system over the last few years, Rafaela always comes out in a favorable light, it doesn't have many concerns about his offensive approach translating to the majors. ZiPS thinks his 50th percentile outcome is a 94 OPS+, which with his D/baserunning results in a WAR projection equal to Yoshida and Casas, and better than Duran. And yet if you ask most people on this message board, my guess is many would take the under on him having a 94 OPS+ in 2024. He is maybe the only prospect I can remember that has had good minor stats and who projection systems like, and yet the fans are the ones who are more bearish. Usually it's the other way around. So interested to see what the Sox do with him.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Nov 29, 2023 11:47:25 GMT -5
Question, would anyone here take a gamble on Eric Fedde after his pretty dominant season overseas? Seems like the kind of value play that might pan out and give us another arm capable of taking the ball for 25+ games, and considering how many ? marks we have as far as durability.. A 2 year 18million deal might be enough to pry him away..
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 12:02:49 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 12:08:04 GMT -5
must be getting close on a Soto deal
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2023 12:08:06 GMT -5
Not surprised if this is indeed the case, I've never really convinced myself that for better or worse he was ever a true option for them.
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Post by trajanacc on Nov 29, 2023 12:24:58 GMT -5
The nature of a model projecting average outcomes is that you're not going to see a lot of 0 and 6 ratings...but of course there is a good chance some of those players projected at 2-3 WAR have 5-6 WAR years (or 0 or worse).
I do agree though that we need to add a star or two. It's much harder/more expensive to upgrade a position from 3 WAR to 5 WAR than it is to upgrade from 0 WAR to 2 WAR.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 29, 2023 12:25:33 GMT -5
It was always a long shot so it’s not shocking if they’re out of it, but I have a hard time believing Michael Marino has the inside scoop on the Ohtani sweepstakes
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2023 12:29:55 GMT -5
must be getting close on a Soto deal Nope, that would be the Yankees. So the rumors are the Yanks will get Soto and the Sox wont get Ohtani. Not really what I'd like to hear. Guess we'll see what next week brings. From the rumors, if think Montgomery is most likely for the Sox but Yamamoto would most likely wind up in LA or NY, which while happy to hear about Montgomery, kind of worried about Yamamoto. But these are rumors so I guess you take it with a big grain of salt...
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 12:31:42 GMT -5
must be getting close on a Soto deal Nope, that would be the Yankees. So the rumors are the Yanks will get Soto and the Sox wont get Ohtani. Not really what I'd like to hear. Guess we'll see what next week brings. From the rumors, if think Montgomery is most likely for the Sox but Yamamoto would most likely wind up in LA or NY, which while happy to hear about Montgomery, kind of worried about Yamamoto. But these are rumors so I guess you take it with a big grain of salt... was a joke
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2023 12:39:06 GMT -5
Nope, that would be the Yankees. So the rumors are the Yanks will get Soto and the Sox wont get Ohtani. Not really what I'd like to hear. Guess we'll see what next week brings. From the rumors, if think Montgomery is most likely for the Sox but Yamamoto would most likely wind up in LA or NY, which while happy to hear about Montgomery, kind of worried about Yamamoto. But these are rumors so I guess you take it with a big grain of salt... was a joke I know. Radiohix had the Sox having Soto joining them for so long I thought the dude was jinxing the Sox getting Soto. I really wanted that guy although I'd be nervous about the prospect cost. It's too bad San Diego imploded before his free agency. I would have liked to have seen the Sox take a full swing in going after him as a free agent. What's funny is all this talk about how the Yankees payroll is all maxed out, etc, yet here they are rumored to be going after Soto, Bellinger, and Yamamoto, as if their budget is infinite. I suspect theyll get Soto and if Dominguez is part of the deal theyll add Bellinger. I'm less convinced they get Yamamoto but I certainly wouldnt rule that out. If it were doable Soto and Yamamoto would be atop my wish list for the Sox. I dont see any RH bat being acquired having the impact Soto would have.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 29, 2023 12:41:23 GMT -5
Gonna call BS on Michael Marino of fantrax.com scooping multiple big market beats today
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 12:54:06 GMT -5
The nature of a model projecting average outcomes is that you're not going to see a lot of 0 and 6 ratings... but of course there is a good chance some of those players projected at 2-3 WAR have 5-6 WAR years (or 0 or worse).I do agree though that we need to add a star or two. It's much harder/more expensive to upgrade a position from 3 WAR to 5 WAR than it is to upgrade from 0 WAR to 2 WAR. If you look at the top five 80th percentile outcomes, it's:
Boston Devers 5.1 Verdugo 3.8 Story 3.3 Yoshida 3.3 Casas 3.2
Baltimore Rutschman 6.2 Henderson 6.2 Mullins 4.3 Holliday 4.1 (!) Santander 4.0
Toronto Bichette 5.8 Guerrero 4.7 Gausman 4.6
Kirk 4.2 Schneider 4.0
Tampa Bay Franco 5.0 (well...) Paredes 4.5 Arozarena 4.2 McClanahan 4.1 Eflin 4.0
Diaz 3.8 Lowe 3.8
I think it's fair to say that the Red Sox have the least upside potential of any of these teams. Every other AL East team so far has at least 5 guys with a better 80th percentile projection than the Red Sox' #2 guy (who they are apparently looking into trading away).
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 12:56:44 GMT -5
The nature of a model projecting average outcomes is that you're not going to see a lot of 0 and 6 ratings... but of course there is a good chance some of those players projected at 2-3 WAR have 5-6 WAR years (or 0 or worse).I do agree though that we need to add a star or two. It's much harder/more expensive to upgrade a position from 3 WAR to 5 WAR than it is to upgrade from 0 WAR to 2 WAR. If you look at the top five 80th percentile outcomes, it's:
Boston Devers 5.1 Verdugo 3.8 Story 3.3 Yoshida 3.3 Casas 3.2
Baltimore Rutschman 6.2 Henderson 6.2 Mullins 4.3 Holliday 4.1 (!) Santander 4.0
Toronto Bichette 5.8 Guerrero 4.7 Gausman 4.6
Kirk 4.2 Schneider 4.0
Tampa Bay Franco 5.0 (well...) Paredes 4.5 Arozarena 4.2 McClanahan 4.1 Eflin 4.0
Diaz 3.8 Lowe 3.8
I think it's fair to say that the Red Sox have the least upside potential of any of these teams. Every other AL East team so far has at least 5 guys with a better 80th percentile projection than the Red Sox' #2 guy (who they are apparently looking into trading away).
doesn’t change your overall takeaway but I don’t think the 80th percentiles are playing time scaled either. So for Story for instance that’s 2/3 of a season.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 29, 2023 13:00:29 GMT -5
My main takeaway from the ZiPS projections is that this would be another bad year to exchange future value for present day value. If nothing they can do will make the division + top two seed a realistic possibility, then best to play sit in cruise control and play for the wild card.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 13:00:37 GMT -5
doesn’t change your overall takeaway but I don’t think the 80th percentiles are playing time scaled either. So for Story for instance that’s 2/3 of a season. If you're right I wouldn't be a fan of that methodology; the 80th percentile outcome involves Story being healthy!
In any case, just the names on that list tell the story well enough.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 29, 2023 13:06:51 GMT -5
I do think the unfortunate thing is that the Red Sox as currently constructed don't really have anyone with a huge ceiling, at least as it relates to their WAR. Devers could go off any year and have a ~170 wRC+, maybe Casas too. But it's hard to see anyone else on the team putting up a 6-7 win season. I think the 80th percentile projections show that.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 13:06:52 GMT -5
My main takeaway from the ZiPS projections is that this would be another bad year to exchange future value for present day value. If nothing they can do will make the division + top two seed a realistic possibility, then best to play sit in cruise control and play for the wild card. Looking forward to being our customary 2 GB of the WC at the trade deadline!
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 13:07:47 GMT -5
doesn’t change your overall takeaway but I don’t think the 80th percentiles are playing time scaled either. So for Story for instance that’s 2/3 of a season. If you're right I wouldn't be a fan of that methodology; the 80th percentile outcome involves Story being healthy! Well Story's 50th percentile outcome per 600 PAs is 3.2 WAR so I would be really surprised if his 80th percentile per 600 PAs only added 0.1, I think his 80th percentile /600 is 4.8 WAR. I agree with you though it's a flaw in that table.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2023 13:09:14 GMT -5
My main takeaway from the ZiPS projections is that this would be another bad year to exchange future value for present day value. If nothing they can do will make the division + top two seed a realistic possibility, then best to play sit in cruise control and play for the wild card. This is pretty much where I've landed, I'd rather see the Sox spend some bucks in FA and hold on to the main trade chips. See how they do going into the deadline and reassess then. The last thing I want to see them do is deal one of the blue chippers in Mayer, Anthony and Teel for a slight upgrade to a pretty much middle of the pack roster.
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