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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 29, 2023 13:14:57 GMT -5
My main takeaway from the ZiPS projections is that this would be another bad year to exchange future value for present day value. If nothing they can do will make the division + top two seed a realistic possibility, then best to play sit in cruise control and play for the wild card. Looking forward to being our customary 2 GB of the WC at the trade deadline! Please don't tell me this will be followed by another immediate day after the deadline losing streak.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 29, 2023 13:16:20 GMT -5
Gonna call BS on Michael Marino of fantrax.com scooping multiple big market beats today My (limited) understanding of Marino is he does Mets-related freelance stuff - this is just speculative, but perhaps his "sources" are merely the guesses/perspective made by a Mets front office guy? Usually this sort of stuff leaks from agents trying to play the leverage game, but Ohtani's agent isn't doing that. Would make sense if it's just another team being like, "Yeah man, this is what we've heard." He was early on hearing Turner to the Red Sox fwiw:
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 13:30:46 GMT -5
Red Sox outfielder ZiPS WAR/600 projections:
Verdugo - 2.2 Yoshida - 2.1 Rafaela - 2.0 Duvall* - 2.0 Duran - 2.0 Abreu - 1.9 Refsnyder** - 1.8
*Free agent **Platoon guy who would never get 600 PAs and it wouldn't scale this way
I find it very unlikely they bring back all three of Duran, Rafaela and Abreu.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 13:39:15 GMT -5
Red Sox outfielder ZiPS WAR/600 projections: Verdugo - 2.2 Yoshida - 2.1 Rafaela - 2.0 Duvall* - 2.0 Duran - 2.0 Abreu - 1.9 Refsnyder** - 1.8 *Free agent **Platoon guy who would never get 600 PAs and it wouldn't scale this way I find it very unlikely they bring back all three of Duran, Rafaela and Abreu. I am team sell high on Duran. That BABIP regression is going to really sting and make him a lot less fun. His 2023 was a great watch though.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 29, 2023 14:13:22 GMT -5
Red Sox outfielder ZiPS WAR/600 projections: Verdugo - 2.2 Yoshida - 2.1 Rafaela - 2.0 Duvall* - 2.0 Duran - 2.0 Abreu - 1.9 Refsnyder** - 1.8 *Free agent **Platoon guy who would never get 600 PAs and it wouldn't scale this way I find it very unlikely they bring back all three of Duran, Rafaela and Abreu. I am team sell high on Duran. That BABIP regression is going to really sting and make him a lot less fun. His 2023 was a great watch though. but what about that XBABABIP luck thing (Extra Base after BABIP). Is it not worth something that an infield grounder become be a hit. A single / walk become a double. A double become a triple....you get my drift. Is that not worthwhile to keep over other, more expensive options. You all should be proud of me, I just invented a metric.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 29, 2023 14:20:58 GMT -5
Red Sox outfielder ZiPS WAR/600 projections: Verdugo - 2.2 Yoshida - 2.1 Rafaela - 2.0 Duvall* - 2.0 Duran - 2.0 Abreu - 1.9 Refsnyder** - 1.8 *Free agent **Platoon guy who would never get 600 PAs and it wouldn't scale this way I find it very unlikely they bring back all three of Duran, Rafaela and Abreu. My initial instinct when seeing this was, "Wow, that seems like a lot of competent outfielders for one team." Especially at a time where recently there's been less quality OF as a whole - (h/t Red Sox Stats) - I looked at the Steamer600 (this had Pablo Reyes in lieu of Refsnyder?) but the Red Sox have 6 OF's in the Top 100 based on that system's projections. This was tied for the most of any team - along with the Cardinals, and somewhat surprisingly, the Tigers: www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600Ideally there's a way to consolidate one or two of these guys with something else to get a higher caliber player, as all 5-6 of these guys aren't gonna play.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2023 15:15:37 GMT -5
There's a decent amount of comments to trade Duran while his value is high, yet I don't believe I've seen anyone point to what they would deal him for other than mythical roster upgrade. It's obviously a great idea to trade Duran for someone who is "better" but if these projections metrics aren't terribly high on him and if (I have no idea if this is true or not) The Red Sox aren't that high on him to replicate his 2023 season than why would any other team really be that interested in him either? They probably have the same exact hesitations to Duran as this board does, myself included. Therefore it would probably stand to reason he's not bringing back some sort of guaranteed upgrade, certainly not by himself.
Also anyone saying they need to move an OFer, while once again I'm not against the idea Rafaela and Abreu both have options and certainly in the case of Rafaela some more time in AAA wouldn't hurt. Either way though they could easily go with an OF of Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Refsnyder, FA OFer and let Rafaela and Abreu develop some more in the minors.
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Post by soxheater5 on Nov 29, 2023 15:18:32 GMT -5
Does anyone think there's a chance Roman Anthony gets called up this season? (first time on the message board, still seeing how this works lmao)
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 16:02:45 GMT -5
There's a decent amount of comments to trade Duran while his value is high, yet I don't believe I've seen anyone point to what they would deal him for other than mythical roster upgrade. It's obviously a great idea to trade Duran for someone who is "better" but if these projections metrics aren't terribly high on him and if (I have no idea if this is true or not ) The Red Sox aren't that high on him to replicate his 2023 season than why would any other team really be that interested in him either? They probably have the same exact hesitations to Duran as this board does, myself included. Therefore it would probably stand to reason he's not bringing back some sort of guaranteed upgrade, certainly not by himself. Also anyone saying they need to move an OFer, while once again I'm not against the idea Rafaela and Abreu both have options and certainly in the case of Rafaela some more time in AAA wouldn't hurt. Either way though they could easily go with an OF of Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Refsnyder, FA OFer and let Rafaela and Abreu develop some more in the minors. I do think it would help if people got specific about who they would target if they want to push these trade ideas forward, whether it be with Duran or Verdugo or whomever. It's not too hard to see how they could exchange one of those guys for like a 2-WAR player; but they are themselves already 2-WAR players, and in fact this team has 2-WAR players at like every position, so that doesn't really help them. A 4-WAR player helps them, but then Duran or Verdugo is just an add-on, in all likelilhood, to either Mayer or Anthony. Does anyone think there's a chance Roman Anthony gets called up this season? (first time on the message board, still seeing how this works lmao) I think Chris and Ian were saying on some recent podcast that they would give it better than 50/50 odds that at least one of Mayer/Anthony/Teel would make it to the majors by August 1st, or something like that. Could be any of the three, but there's at least a chance with any of them.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 29, 2023 16:16:27 GMT -5
I'll give Roman Anthony a 25% chance of playing in the majors next season. He'd have to beat up on high minors pitching and be in the running for very best prospects in the game.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 16:29:15 GMT -5
Re; Duran trades since I've been one advocating for it, I've avoided giving specifics since I don't wanna drift too far into trade-proposal-sub-forum land. I'll say generally my preference would be for him to be part of a package for a bigger upgrade (which makes specific proposals more tricky), but that could be guys like Soto or Robert, or a starter Keller or Cease or Burnes.
I'd also consider moving him straight up for some rental guys, like Kim or Adames.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 16:36:46 GMT -5
Re; Duran trades since I've been one advocating for it, I've avoided giving specifics since I don't wanna drift too far into trade-proposal-sub-forum land. I'll say generally my preference would be for him to be part of a package for a bigger upgrade (which makes specific proposals more tricky), but that could be guys like Soto or Robert, or a starter Keller or Cease or Burnes. I'd also consider moving him straight up for some rental guys, like Kim or Adames. Duran straight up for two years of Kim is a pretty interesting thought. Not sure I'd do it for one year of Adames but that's also a conversation.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2023 16:40:36 GMT -5
I get it on Duran, he fits the bill as a guy to trade. Has some years of control left, just had his best season to date and has some value.
I guess my main qualm is the thought that well I don't believe in Duran so let's trade him while his value is high. Is his value that high right now? I would suspect not, certainly not high enough to headline a package for a 4 WAR guy without the rest of the package including one of Mayer/Anthony/Teel etc. I think he's probably a 2 WAR guy with upside to maybe push up to 4 if everything really clicks for him in a given season which I know I'd take. If they keep Duran and get 10 WAR out of him the next 5 years I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm also fine with trading him.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 29, 2023 18:11:11 GMT -5
I get it on Duran, he fits the bill as a guy to trade. Has some years of control left, just had his best season to date and has some value. I guess my main qualm is the thought that well I don't believe in Duran so let's trade him while his value is high. Is his value that high right now? I would suspect not, certainly not high enough to headline a package for a 4 WAR guy without the rest of the package including one of Mayer/Anthony/Teel etc. I think he's probably a 2 WAR guy with upside to maybe push up to 4 if everything really clicks for him in a given season which I know I'd take. If they keep Duran and get 10 WAR out of him the next 5 years I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm also fine with trading him. I don’t really understand this thought process. Duran was a top 100 prospect going into 2022, and he’s on pace to produce like one, even with pretty significant BABIP regression. He’s got 5 years of control left. Why does he need to be attached to one of the big 3 prospects to bring back anything good? Especially if the return only comes with one or two years of control?
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 29, 2023 20:57:20 GMT -5
Not a very well thought out answer, but Duran was the most exciting player on the team last year outside of Casas. Thought of trading o him just upsets me.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 29, 2023 21:45:29 GMT -5
Not a very well thought out answer, but Duran was the most exciting player on the team last year outside of Casas. Thought of trading o him just upsets me. The only way im in favor of a Duran trade is if its part of bringing an ace with more than 1 year or a legit superstar with more than 1 year.
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Post by soxheater5 on Nov 29, 2023 22:32:09 GMT -5
Not a very well thought out answer, but Duran was the most exciting player on the team last year outside of Casas. Thought of trading o him just upsets me. The only way im in favor of a Duran trade is if its part of bringing an ace with more than 1 year or a legit superstar with more than 1 year. I had a trade thought today, as I'm working through some offseason roster projections. Hefty price, but I think Luis Robert would be available for a massive haul. Red Sox get: Luis Robert White Sox get: Houck, Duran, Yorke, Bleis, Romero, and Drohan. IMO this is worth it. Robert is a massive upgrade over Duran. If you make a corresponding move acquiring either India or Polanco to cover 2B, while also adding a high quality starter or two I think it pays off pretty easily.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 29, 2023 22:34:16 GMT -5
The only way im in favor of a Duran trade is if its part of bringing an ace with more than 1 year or a legit superstar with more than 1 year. I had a trade thought today, as I'm working through some offseason roster projections. Hefty price, but I think Luis Robert would be available for a massive haul. Red Sox get: Luis Robert White Sox get: Houck, Duran, Yorke, Bleis, Romero, and Drohan. IMO this is worth it. Robert is a massive upgrade over Duran. If you make a corresponding move acquiring either India or Polanco to cover 2B, while also adding a high quality starter or two I think it pays off pretty easily. I’m not sure there’s a world where Luis Robert is coming to the Red Sox and none of Mayer, Teel, and Anthony are going to Chicago. I just don’t see any way the White Sox agree to that deal.
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Post by soxheater5 on Nov 29, 2023 22:41:16 GMT -5
chaimtime I think you could be right but I also think it's an alternative package very few, if any, other team could offer right now. Going with a little bit of quantity over quality here (with a lot of elite quality still mixed in). Duran and Houck being two long term controlled major league pieces, Yorke and Bleis being very good prospects, and Drohan and Romero having great upside. Feel like the White Sox need a pretty big overhaul and adding 6 likely major league players is a good package to accomplish that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2023 22:56:31 GMT -5
chaimtime I think you could be right but I also think it's an alternative package very few, if any, other team could offer right now. Going with a little bit of quantity over quality here (with a lot of elite quality still mixed in). Duran and Houck being two long term controlled major league pieces, Yorke and Bleis being very good prospects, and Drohan and Romero having great upside. Feel like the White Sox need a pretty big overhaul and adding 6 likely major league players is a good package to accomplish that. Your proposal belongs in the trade proposal area rather than this area most likely. Honestly I don't think the package you offer is something that other teams couldn't do. I mean it's a young OF but not a superstar in the making, a hybrid pitcher who probably isn't good enough to start and some mid level prospects, one of whom was left exposed to the Rule 5 draft. I don't think the Sox are that unique with midlevel prospects to offer. The Sox aren't get Luis Robert without surrendering one of their top 3 prospects, most like Roman Anthony. Besides other than that weird junk for scrap heap deal with Aaron Bummer, when do you ever see a 6 for 1 swap? Von Hayes, many years ago, was a noteworthy deal as he was the one in a 5-1 deal. Hayes was good for Philly but a young Julio Franco was sent to Cleveland in the deal, so the Indians did fine, too, probably even better. Teams want quality more than they want quantity. Mid tier prospects and lottery ticket prospects aren't that tough to come by. Getting somebody who has a legit shot at being an all-star caliber player is more unique and more sought after in deals for star players.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 29, 2023 23:08:38 GMT -5
It's fine to want to trade Duran, but anytime someone says 'trade him while his value is high' it implies that the poster is sure that he will be worse going forward and that another team's front office is unaware. Essentially another team's front office is less knowledgeable than the poster. There have been some dumb front offices in the past, when team owners would run things directly, but these days they're filled with ivy league grads who work 100 hours a week, so I doubt that team is out there.
If I were a HOBO and another team offered a player coming off a 2+ win season with 5 years of control, my first thought would be: what's wrong with him?
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 23:27:55 GMT -5
The Red Sox could be fairly transparent with another front office and still pitch Duran as valuable while trading him. “We think he’s a great hitter and base runner with upside but he’s not a perfect fit for our roster given he’s not a standout defender and is a lefty” still selling them an above average player with upside, and if the other team likes Duran that’s not a hard sell.
And then of course that’s not exactly what you would do there’s gonna be a whole game theory of negotiations thing going on, but the point is even if they like Duran they could honestly shop him.
And not to speak for others but my case isn’t even necessarily that they’d be selling high, certainly not that I know better than the FO on when to do that, but that I think it just makes the most sense from a roster construction perspective.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 23:54:16 GMT -5
It's fine to want to trade Duran, but anytime someone says 'trade him while his value is high' it implies that the poster is sure that he will be worse going forward and that another team's front office is unaware. Essentially another team's front office is less knowledgeable than the poster. There have been some dumb front offices in the past, when team owners would run things directly, but these days they're filled with ivy league grads who work 100 hours a week, so I doubt that team is out there. If I were a HOBO and another team offered a player coming off a 2+ win season with 5 years of control, my first thought would be: what's wrong with him? I agree with what you’re saying, but price still moves with performance to an extent even if underlying data doesn’t completely believe it. We saw the Reds exemplify this with Pagan today. He was on a 4 fWAR/600 pace last year, so if anyone thought that was truly him then he’d be worth a ton. I don’t think anyone is trying to say he is that guy, even the Red Sox.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2023 9:53:33 GMT -5
I'll take another pass, a more realistic one than my wish list roster.
I think the Sox will sign Montgomery. They seem bent on trading for a starter. I dont think theyll get Burnes unless 1 of Anthony, Mayer,or Teel gets dealt. Otherwise I'll have them trading for Bieber, costing them Yorke, Houck, and Abreu.
Obviously Burnes would be preferable but I dont think Crawford, Houck, and Duran are necessarily enough without sacrificing a top prospect instead. I dont think a deal for Kirby would happen and while possible I dont think I've deeply considered a deal for a Marlins pitcher.
For the offense the Sox will trade for Jonathan India in a 3 way deal that sends Verdugo away. I think theyll resign Turner and sign Teoscar Hernandez.
Note that these are not moves I want them to make,just predictions.
There will be a lot of talk about the Sox being in on Ohtani and Yanamoto and o think the Sox will sincerely pursue them and cone up empty handed.
Theyll get a lefty reliever to be determined, too, maybe Will Smith for good luck.
The rotation will be:
Montgomery Bieber Sale Bello Pivetta Crawford
The bullpen will be;
Jansen Martin Whitlock Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino Campbell Lefty#2, Will Smith?
Lineup:
Duran, CF Turner, DH Devers, 3b Hernandez, RF Casas, 1b Story, SS Yoshida, LF India, 2b Wong, C
These are not moves I want them to make although I'd be cool with signing Montgomery. But these are things I can see happening.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 30, 2023 10:02:35 GMT -5
I'll take another pass, a more realistic one than my wish list roster. I think the Sox will sign Montgomery. They seem bent on trading for a starter. I dont think theyll get Burnes unless 1 of Anthony, Mayer,or Teel gets dealt. Otherwise I'll have them trading for Bieber, costing them Yorke, Houck, and Abreu. Obviously Burnes would be preferable but I dont think Crawford, Houck, and Duran are necessarily enough without sacrificing a top prospect instead. I dont think a deal for Kirby would happen and while possible I dont think I've deeply considered a deal for a Marlins pitcher. For the offense the Sox will trade for Jonathan India in a 3 way deal that sends Verdugo away. I think theyll resign Turner and sign Teoscar Hernandez. Note that these are not moves I want them to make,just predictions. There will be a lot of talk about the Sox being in on Ohtani and Yanamoto and o think the Sox will sincerely pursue them and cone up empty handed. Theyll get a lefty reliever to be determined, too, maybe Will Smith for good luck. The rotation will be: Montgomery Bieber Sale Bello Pivetta Crawford The bullpen will be; Jansen Martin Whitlock Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino Campbell Lefty#2, Will Smith? Lineup: Duran, CF Turner, DH Devers, 3b Hernandez, RF Casas, 1b Story, SS Yoshida, LF India, 2b Wong, C These are not moves I want them to make although I'd be cool with signing Montgomery. But these are things I can see happening. I can see a lot of these moves happening but yeesh that defense would be dreadful. Is Bieber worth that much? I'm not on board giving up that much for him, heck I don't think I'd give up Houck straight up for 1 year of Bieber.
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