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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2023 10:06:32 GMT -5
I'll take another pass, a more realistic one than my wish list roster. I think the Sox will sign Montgomery. They seem bent on trading for a starter. I dont think theyll get Burnes unless 1 of Anthony, Mayer,or Teel gets dealt. Otherwise I'll have them trading for Bieber, costing them Yorke, Houck, and Abreu. Obviously Burnes would be preferable but I dont think Crawford, Houck, and Duran are necessarily enough without sacrificing a top prospect instead. I dont think a deal for Kirby would happen and while possible I dont think I've deeply considered a deal for a Marlins pitcher. For the offense the Sox will trade for Jonathan India in a 3 way deal that sends Verdugo away. I think theyll resign Turner and sign Teoscar Hernandez. Note that these are not moves I want them to make,just predictions. In this scenario they will have:
- downgraded RF and sent out their position player with the second best ZiPS projection on the team in order to... - ...acquire a second baseman who has a worse Steamer projection than Luis Urias (ZiPS tbd) - re-signed Turner, who will be 39 and obviously projects to be worse than he was last year - replaced Duvall with a guy who projects to be worse than Duvall was last year and will cost ~6x as much - traded away two of their most valuable young players and their #6 prospect for one year of a pitcher with conspicuously declining stuff and a 4.77 xERA last season
You're setting a pretty low bar for Breslow here!
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2023 10:12:53 GMT -5
I'll take another pass, a more realistic one than my wish list roster. I think the Sox will sign Montgomery. They seem bent on trading for a starter. I dont think theyll get Burnes unless 1 of Anthony, Mayer,or Teel gets dealt. Otherwise I'll have them trading for Bieber, costing them Yorke, Houck, and Abreu. Obviously Burnes would be preferable but I dont think Crawford, Houck, and Duran are necessarily enough without sacrificing a top prospect instead. I dont think a deal for Kirby would happen and while possible I dont think I've deeply considered a deal for a Marlins pitcher. For the offense the Sox will trade for Jonathan India in a 3 way deal that sends Verdugo away. I think theyll resign Turner and sign Teoscar Hernandez. Note that these are not moves I want them to make,just predictions. There will be a lot of talk about the Sox being in on Ohtani and Yanamoto and o think the Sox will sincerely pursue them and cone up empty handed. Theyll get a lefty reliever to be determined, too, maybe Will Smith for good luck. The rotation will be: Montgomery Bieber Sale Bello Pivetta Crawford The bullpen will be; Jansen Martin Whitlock Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino Campbell Lefty#2, Will Smith? Lineup: Duran, CF Turner, DH Devers, 3b Hernandez, RF Casas, 1b Story, SS Yoshida, LF India, 2b Wong, C These are not moves I want them to make although I'd be cool with signing Montgomery. But these are things I can see happening. I can see a lot of these moves happening but yeesh that defense would be dreadful. Is Bieber worth that much? I'm not on board giving up that much for him, heck I don't think I'd give up Houck straight up for 1 year of Bieber. These are not moves that I'm hoping for, just things that I think could happen. I mean what does it take to get Burnes? Who else is out there that would constitute a front line starting pitcher acquisition through a trade? I mean I'd much rather see them give crazy money to Yamamoto and sign Montgomery, no brain surgery involved here. Yamamoto and Montgomery would resolve the rotation issues and leave the farm system intact. I'm not overly concerned about John Henry's wallet. I'd love to see them get Ohtani, but am not sure how they get him and still get two top notch starters that they need given that Ohtani isn't pitching in 2024 and still have room left for a needed RH bat, but then again I'm not overly concerned with John Henry's wallet - the Sox have only been middle of the pack in spending the past few years and we can see that hasn't worked overly well. The only real prediction I can give you with certainty is that I'll be ticked if the Yankees get Soto and really mad if they get Yamamoto as well. I'm praying if the Sox can't get Soto (I really don't expect them to be involved) the Yankees don't, that the Giants or Cubs or Dodgers land him. Same with Yamamoto, although I can't think of a more perfect free agent for the Sox to go all out for, and will be disappointed if they don't get him the most and even more mad if they sign Montgomery next week and then say (imply) we spent our money - can't go full out for Yamamoto.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 30, 2023 10:18:46 GMT -5
Another team that could line up as a trade partner on a Duran or Verdugo deal: The Marlins
They have a bunch of interesting middle infielders and cost controlled arms and a really weak starting outfield set. I'd be happy getting Xavier Edwards or Jon Berti for second base and all of their top 6 starters are varying degrees of interesting. Not sure there's a direct 1/1 swap there necessarily.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2023 10:22:18 GMT -5
I'll take another pass, a more realistic one than my wish list roster. I think the Sox will sign Montgomery. They seem bent on trading for a starter. I dont think theyll get Burnes unless 1 of Anthony, Mayer,or Teel gets dealt. Otherwise I'll have them trading for Bieber, costing them Yorke, Houck, and Abreu. Obviously Burnes would be preferable but I dont think Crawford, Houck, and Duran are necessarily enough without sacrificing a top prospect instead. I dont think a deal for Kirby would happen and while possible I dont think I've deeply considered a deal for a Marlins pitcher. For the offense the Sox will trade for Jonathan India in a 3 way deal that sends Verdugo away. I think theyll resign Turner and sign Teoscar Hernandez. Note that these are not moves I want them to make,just predictions. In this scenario they will have: - downgraded RF and sent out their position player with the second best ZiPS projection on the team in order to... - ...acquire a second baseman who has a worse Steamer projection than Luis Urias (ZiPS tbd) - re-signed Turner, who will be 39 and obviously projects to be worse than he was last year - replaced Duvall with a guy who projects to be worse than Duvall was last year and will cost ~6x as much - traded away two of their most valuable young players and their #6 prospect for one year of a pitcher with conspicuously declining stuff and a 4.77 xERA last season
You're setting a pretty low bar for Breslow here!
Yes, I am, although personally I don't get hung up much on ZIPS and Steamer projections. They're just projections. At some point you believe player X is going to do this or do that, Can't just say, well the computer says this, so that's what I have to go by. At some point you have to exercise judgment on what you think a player will do whether good, bad, or in between. Personally, I don't think Urias is as good as you keep pointing out, etc. He flunked his trial with the Sox last year. They saw him up close and weren't impressed. Could they be wrong? Sure. But they made a judgment that the dude isn't the answer at 2b. If he was he'd still be here. So I don't think that improving upon him is that huge a bar to clear, not that I'm gaga over Jonathan India. Frankly there is no great 2b option out there. I like Turner but I hope they don't resign him. Frankly I'd rather have JD Martinez if they were locked into a has to be a RH DH type of thing, which I don't think they are. I think he has the best RH bat on the market and is a true cleanup hitter, but I could see them turning to Teoscar Hernandez, which I hope they don't do as I hate his BB/K ratio. Breslow has been touted as the best baseball mind. We'll see. Can't tell you how many times we're told something is the biggest and best, and it doesn't turn out to be that way. That said, I did like the Urias for Campbell swap, so let's see what happens. I have trouble thinking Breslow told Werner we'll settle for second best and Werner saying that sounds good to me. Love seeing empty ballparks in September, so there is a part of me that can't help but wonder if Ohtani to Boston really could be a thing even if it doesn't exactly make the most sense or seem realistic. I like Montgomery but I have trouble believing that's as good as we'll do, even though that could be exactly that. So I'm trying to temper my expectations on what the next few weeks will bring.
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Post by costpet on Nov 30, 2023 10:28:38 GMT -5
I don’t know why so many people want to get rid of Duran. When he was healthy, he was a spark at the top of the lineup. Normal singles turned into doubles by his speed. That put him into scoring position. His defense wasn’t bad, just wasn’t great. So what. Put him in LF and leave him there. And make sure he leads off.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 30, 2023 11:02:54 GMT -5
Pretty sure they plan on rolling with Reyes and Valdez at 2B. They can be somewhat productive and are cheap. Plus they will likely have story there for starting in 2024 as Mayer comes up.
I’m signing Yamamoto
Trading Duran, Houck, and Yorke for Burnes
Yamamoto Burnes Sale Bello Crawford
The lineup is way more tricky I have no idea what they will try and do here. It is a poorly constructed lineup with too many defensive deficient left handed batters
So they will need to pull some tricks out of their hats if they change it a lot
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2023 11:10:36 GMT -5
In this scenario they will have: - downgraded RF and sent out their position player with the second best ZiPS projection on the team in order to... - ...acquire a second baseman who has a worse Steamer projection than Luis Urias (ZiPS tbd) - re-signed Turner, who will be 39 and obviously projects to be worse than he was last year - replaced Duvall with a guy who projects to be worse than Duvall was last year and will cost ~6x as much - traded away two of their most valuable young players and their #6 prospect for one year of a pitcher with conspicuously declining stuff and a 4.77 xERA last season
You're setting a pretty low bar for Breslow here!
Yes, I am, although personally I don't get hung up much on ZIPS and Steamer projections. They're just projections. At some point you believe player X is going to do this or do that, Can't just say, well the computer says this, so that's what I have to go by. At some point you have to exercise judgment on what you think a player will do whether good, bad, or in between. Okay, if you find the argument more persuasive if I put it this way, here goes:
- I think Jonathan India stinks. I think he's a worse player than Verdugo and probably worse than Urias. That would be a bad trade.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 30, 2023 11:14:18 GMT -5
Another team that could line up as a trade partner on a Duran or Verdugo deal: The Marlins They have a bunch of interesting middle infielders and cost controlled arms and a really weak starting outfield set. I'd be happy getting Xavier Edwards or Jon Berti for second base and all of their top 6 starters are varying degrees of interesting. Not sure there's a direct 1/1 swap there necessarily. Berti is interesting to me between his speed, defensive versatility, and at bat quality (not a lot of chase, not a lot of swing and miss). He's probably closer to the "Platonic Idea of Whit Merrifield" than Whit Merrifield himself. The Marlins are in a weird spot where they have Josh Bell slotted for 1B, Arraez at 2B (maybe he moves to DH when Soler leaves?), Berti is at SS, and Chrisholm is in CF - where the metrics on his switch to the OF are mixed (good for OAA, bad for DRS.) So I'm not sure what piece they would be looking for.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2023 11:17:53 GMT -5
Pretty sure they plan on rolling with Reyes and Valdez at 2B. They can be somewhat productive and are cheap. With, what, David Hamilton as depth? That would be a great formula for repeating their middle infield disaster from last season.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 30, 2023 11:18:59 GMT -5
I don’t know why so many people want to get rid of Duran. When he was healthy, he was a spark at the top of the lineup. Normal singles turned into doubles by his speed. That put him into scoring position. His defense wasn’t bad, just wasn’t great. So what. Put him in LF and leave him there. And make sure he leads off. I don’t think most people want to get rid of Duran, it’s more that you have to give up something good to get something good. A 2-ish WAR player with 5 years of control is a valuable trade piece. By all indications they are planning to go into the season with Yoshida as the main left fielder, which means Duran has to play CF. He’s come a long way defensively but I don’t think that’s ideal for the team defense. It leaves the team in a bit of a weird spot, and given that the roster currently has a lot of starting-caliber outfielders on it, it seems like a Duran trade might be a good way to rebalance the roster and bring in an impact player.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 30, 2023 11:32:46 GMT -5
I'll take another pass, a more realistic one than my wish list roster. I think the Sox will sign Montgomery. They seem bent on trading for a starter. I dont think theyll get Burnes unless 1 of Anthony, Mayer,or Teel gets dealt. Otherwise I'll have them trading for Bieber, costing them Yorke, Houck, and Abreu.
Yorke, Houck, and Abreu for Bieber would be highly disturbing.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 30, 2023 11:34:57 GMT -5
Another team that could line up as a trade partner on a Duran or Verdugo deal: The Marlins They have a bunch of interesting middle infielders and cost controlled arms and a really weak starting outfield set. I'd be happy getting Xavier Edwards or Jon Berti for second base and all of their top 6 starters are varying degrees of interesting. Not sure there's a direct 1/1 swap there necessarily. Berti is interesting to me between his speed, defensive versatility, and at bat quality (not a lot of chase, not a lot of swing and miss). He's probably closer to the "Platonic Idea of Whit Merrifield" than Whit Merrifield himself. The Marlins are in a weird spot where they have Josh Bell slotted for 1B, Arraez at 2B (maybe he moves to DH when Soler leaves?), Berti is at SS, and Chrisholm is in CF - where the metrics on his switch to the OF are mixed (good for OAA, bad for DRS.) So I'm not sure what piece they would be looking for. They also have Amaya for the middle infield. Their two starting corner OFs on the depth chart are both below average also, which is why I think Duran or Verdugo might be interesting to them. That said, they might be able to grab one of the average ish outfielders in free agency and then prefer to keep Berti and Edwards. Berti's obviously easy to fit on pretty much any roster with his versatility and speed.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 30, 2023 11:41:13 GMT -5
Pretty sure they plan on rolling with Reyes and Valdez at 2B. They can be somewhat productive and are cheap. With, what, David Hamilton as depth? That would be a great formula for repeating their middle infield disaster from last season. I mean why spend money there when Story is will be moving there? Why use luxury tax money on something that won’t be a long term fix anyhow?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2023 11:43:50 GMT -5
The Pirates are down to one healthy starter in Mitch Keller and are once again looking pretty damn hopeless. Kepler’s numbers put him in the Nola and Montgomery zone. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a trade target
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2023 11:46:26 GMT -5
With, what, David Hamilton as depth? That would be a great formula for repeating their middle infield disaster from last season. I mean why spend money there when Story is will be moving there? Why use luxury tax money on something that won’t be a long term fix anyhow? I know *you* think they shouldn't try to field a good team in 2024, but I'm telling you I really don't think that's Breslow's plan.
Stopgaps are fine. Which is what Urias would have been. If they can find a better stopgap than Urias, great. But if they go into next season with just Valdez, Reyes, Hamilton, and Story as MI options I'll consider that more weirdly negligent than when they went into 2022 with JBJ as the starting RFer.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 30, 2023 11:50:21 GMT -5
The Pirates are down to one healthy starter in Mitch Keller and are once again looking pretty damn hopeless. Kepler’s numbers put him in the Nola and Montgomery zone. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a trade target Outside of 21 innings in 2020, Keller has been painfully average to horrible. Not sure why he's thought of in such high regard.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2023 12:06:29 GMT -5
The Pirates are down to one healthy starter in Mitch Keller and are once again looking pretty damn hopeless. Kepler’s numbers put him in the Nola and Montgomery zone. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a trade target Outside of 21 innings in 2020, Keller has been painfully average to horrible. Not sure why he's thought of in such high regard. I'm assuming you're only looking at ERA and nothing else, but Keller has pitched behind bad defenses and still been solid. Nobody is calling him an ace or anything either. 2023 Nola: 193 IP, 4.46 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 3.9 fWAR Keller: 194.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 30, 2023 12:25:10 GMT -5
With, what, David Hamilton as depth? That would be a great formula for repeating their middle infield disaster from last season. I mean why spend money there when Story is will be moving there? Why use luxury tax money on something that won’t be a long term fix anyhow? Nobody is saying to give out a mega deal to a 2nd baseman this offseason but I would say they need a better opening day option than Reyes/Valdez/Rafaela. Sure we are all waiting and anticipating Mayer can be ready for sometime in probably 2025 but he's played a grand total of 43 games at AA and his #s weren't good. A lot of that if not all of it I will attribute to the shoulder injury but the point still remains we don't really know when or honestly even if Mayer is going to be an answer for the MI. Good teams don't just ignore a position because one of their best prospects happens to play there. Plenty of room in the budget to upgrade 2nd base and not block Mayer in case he does continue to look like the prospect we all think he is.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 30, 2023 12:34:43 GMT -5
Outside of 21 innings in 2020, Keller has been painfully average to horrible. Not sure why he's thought of in such high regard. I'm assuming you're only looking at ERA and nothing else, but Keller has pitched behind bad defenses and still been solid. Nobody is calling him an ace or anything either. 2023 Nola: 193 IP, 4.46 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 3.9 fWAR Keller: 194.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR So in Nola's worst season, he was still better than Keller.
The Pirates consider him an ace, and will want a ridiculous return, no doubt. A ridiculous return for a guy with a career 91 ERA+. Yikes
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2023 12:44:01 GMT -5
I'm assuming you're only looking at ERA and nothing else, but Keller has pitched behind bad defenses and still been solid. Nobody is calling him an ace or anything either. 2023 Nola: 193 IP, 4.46 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 3.9 fWAR Keller: 194.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR So in Nola's worst season, he was still better than Keller. The Pirates consider him an ace, and will want a ridiculous return, no doubt. A ridiculous return for a guy with a career 91 ERA+. Yikes
Lol are you the Pirates? How would you know what they think or say in negotiations? Nobody thinks he’s an ace, it shouldn’t take a “ridiculous return” for 2 years of him, and nobody is going to give a ridiculous return so if that was the ask he’d stay put. There’s more that goes into predicting future success in pitching that a player’s actual ERA btw. Here’s a list of Red Sox pitchers projected for a greater WAR than Keller:
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 30, 2023 12:45:11 GMT -5
I'm assuming you're only looking at ERA and nothing else, but Keller has pitched behind bad defenses and still been solid. Nobody is calling him an ace or anything either. 2023 Nola: 193 IP, 4.46 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 3.9 fWAR Keller: 194.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR So in Nola's worst season, he was still better than Keller.
The Pirates consider him an ace, and will want a ridiculous return, no doubt. A ridiculous return for a guy with a career 91 ERA+. Yikes
"The Pirates consider him an ace" - what does this even mean? "will want a ridiculous return, no doubt" - source? "a career 91 ERA+" - not sure what a 7.13 ERA in 2019 has anything to do with the player he is now. In 2022-2023, he has had an ERA+ of 105. As already mentioned, ERA is not a great stat to track, especially when the Pirates defense stinks. For the record, from 2021-2023, Nola has had an ERA+ of 103. I wouldn't be thrilled to acquire him, but he would help the current major league team a lot. There's no denying that.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2023 13:20:33 GMT -5
Yes, I am, although personally I don't get hung up much on ZIPS and Steamer projections. They're just projections. At some point you believe player X is going to do this or do that, Can't just say, well the computer says this, so that's what I have to go by. At some point you have to exercise judgment on what you think a player will do whether good, bad, or in between. Okay, if you find the argument more persuasive if I put it this way, here goes: - I think Jonathan India stinks. I think he's a worse player than Verdugo and probably worse than Urias. That would be a bad trade.
I am not proposing or advocating a Verdugo for India swap. I dont have as high an opinion of Verdugo that you do but I dont think highly of India either. Hes probably already has his best year.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 30, 2023 13:58:40 GMT -5
I mean why spend money there when Story is will be moving there? Why use luxury tax money on something that won’t be a long term fix anyhow? I know *you* think they shouldn't try to field a good team in 2024, but I'm telling you I really don't think that's Breslow's plan.
Stopgaps are fine. Which is what Urias would have been. If they can find a better stopgap than Urias, great. But if they go into next season with just Valdez, Reyes, Hamilton, and Story as MI options I'll consider that more weirdly negligent than when they went into 2022 with JBJ as the starting RFer.
When did I ever say not to field good team? I said we will really go for it 2025 and beyond for a plethora of logical reasons Not coming in last place would be an improvement at this point. I feel no matter what we do at 2nd base you’ll be upset that it’s not Urias at $5 million
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2023 14:14:12 GMT -5
I know *you* think they shouldn't try to field a good team in 2024, but I'm telling you I really don't think that's Breslow's plan.
Stopgaps are fine. Which is what Urias would have been. If they can find a better stopgap than Urias, great. But if they go into next season with just Valdez, Reyes, Hamilton, and Story as MI options I'll consider that more weirdly negligent than when they went into 2022 with JBJ as the starting RFer.
When did I ever say not to field good team? I said we will really go for it 2025 and beyond for a plethora of logical reasons Not coming in last place would be an improvement at this point. I feel no matter what we do at 2nd base you’ll be upset that it’s not Urias at $5 million My favorite genre of comment: making inferences about what I believe that directly contradict statements in the very comment they're responding to.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 30, 2023 14:19:13 GMT -5
Good grief. Enough with the pissing matches, please?
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