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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 30, 2023 14:33:30 GMT -5
Good grief. Enough with the pissing matches, please? God we need some action!! Lol. We are all going crazy. I bet, with the Winter Meetings almost upon us...something will happen soon. All I want for Christmas.....is Yamamoto! Please Santa!
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Post by rico6 on Nov 30, 2023 17:33:23 GMT -5
I believe the Sox will pick up a Marlins starter via trade.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 1, 2023 9:28:29 GMT -5
On the precipice of the Winter Meetings (and likely a huge portion of free agents/trade targets coming off the board shortly), I'm going to predict 4 additions based on speculation of what we think we know currently. To be clear this is not what I would necessarily like to happen, but just something that's part best guess/shoot-from-the-hip:
Montgomery - not sure they'll be able to reel in Yamamoto, and I guess Snell wants the West Coast? Monty's living on Boston, was the #2 pitcher on the World Series winner this year, and Texas apparently isn't eager to spend alot. This feels more likely than not.
Justin Turner - he loves it here, they need a RH bat, and I'm not sure they'll want to invest a whole lot in Teoscar/Soler/etc
Whit Merrifield - I'm sure this signing will go over well
Reid Detmers or Patrick Sandoval - I think they'll trade for one of their additions and it's going to be out of nowhere for a target no one has speculated on. This is baseless, but I'm curious about the Angels, who are in an incredibly uncomfortable spot with Ohtani on his way out. Verdugo and other pieces for one of their few good arms - sure why not
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2023 12:44:42 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
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Post by soxheater5 on Dec 1, 2023 12:52:02 GMT -5
I believe the Sox will pick up a Marlins starter via trade. Tough to predict which one but I'd love to see Meyer in the Sox opening day rotation. I'd expect the marlins to want an everyday position player in return, and unfortunately Verdugo doesn't fit their roster construction.
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Post by soxheater5 on Dec 1, 2023 12:56:28 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take: C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer 1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half 2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
Re:
I see extremely little value in adding Kiermaier or Bader. Duran regressing would likely still be better than both of them in CF, and you get the option to platoon with Rafaela as a L/R split if Duran does end up regressing (which I don't think he will). Bader and Kiermaier were miserable to watch last season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2023 13:04:43 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
fWAR at each position (ranking in MLB): C - 1.0 (21st) 1B - 2.2 (13th) 2B - -0.9 (29th) 3B - 2.6 (12th) SS - 0.2 (26th) LF - 2.4 (13th) CF - 3.8 (8th) RF - 2.0 (13th) DH - 0.5 (15th) CF seems likely to be worse, LF, RF, DH likely neutralish, otherwise likely to improve as things stand. If they can get average players at Short Stop and 2B it's a 5 win swing.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2023 13:16:20 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
fWAR at each position (ranking in MLB): C - 1.0 (21st) 1B - 2.2 (13th) 2B - -0.9 (29th) 3B - 2.6 (12th) SS - 0.2 (26th) LF - 2.4 (13th) CF - 3.8 (8th) RF - 2.0 (13th) DH - 0.5 (15th) CF seems likely to be worse, LF, RF, DH likely neutralish, otherwise likely to improve as things stand. If they can get average players at Short Stop and 2B it's a 5 win swing. I don't understand how they were that good in LF if Yoshida was sub-1 WAR or SS if Kiké was -1.5; or how they were that bad at 3B if Devers was 3.1.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 1, 2023 13:19:28 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
fWAR at each position (ranking in MLB): C - 1.0 (21st) 1B - 2.2 (13th) 2B - -0.9 (29th) 3B - 2.6 (12th) SS - 0.2 (26th) LF - 2.4 (13th) CF - 3.8 (8th) RF - 2.0 (13th) DH - 0.5 (15th) CF seems likely to be worse, LF, RF, DH likely neutralish, otherwise likely to improve as things stand. If they can get average players at Short Stop and 2B it's a 5 win swing. What do you mean DH is likely to be neutralish? Not when Ohtani puts up 5 WAR there next year!
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 1, 2023 13:24:19 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
I agree with the basic premise that I think the 2024 team is going to be very similar to the 2023 team, with hopefully (at least) 1 additional above-average starter. Gotta say I don't understand the Kiermaier/Bader love though when Rafaela is an in-house version of what those guys provide. Bader has a career .304 wOBA, Kiermaier .310. The Yankees ZiPS projections haven't come out yet, but Kiermaier's 1.8 WAR was worse than Rafaela's projected 1.9, and I can't imagine Bader's being much better. Idk why you would spend $10 million on either of those guys when you've got someone that can do the same thing for the mlb minimum, with minor league options.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2023 13:27:42 GMT -5
fWAR at each position (ranking in MLB): C - 1.0 (21st) 1B - 2.2 (13th) 2B - -0.9 (29th) 3B - 2.6 (12th) SS - 0.2 (26th) LF - 2.4 (13th) CF - 3.8 (8th) RF - 2.0 (13th) DH - 0.5 (15th) CF seems likely to be worse, LF, RF, DH likely neutralish, otherwise likely to improve as things stand. If they can get average players at Short Stop and 2B it's a 5 win swing. I don't understand how they were that good in LF if Yoshida was sub-1 WAR or SS if Kiké was -1.5; or how they were that bad at 3B if Devers was 3.1. You can find all these splits on FG but here's SS: www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&filter=&player=&season=2023&season1=2023&type=8&month=38Story was +0.6 there last year (he lost a lot of value in his DH games). He/Reyes/Chang basically zeroed out the Hernandez/Hamilton games. As an LF Yoshida was +0.9 in his 85 games there, Refsnyder and Duran were both +0.6, Abreu and Duvall both slightly positive, and they had no negative drags there. ADD: Story's defense was so good he was a 2.5 WAR/150 player with a 58 wRC+ when at short stop. Reason to be bullish on his upside.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2023 13:30:49 GMT -5
I don't understand how they were that good in LF if Yoshida was sub-1 WAR or SS if Kiké was -1.5; or how they were that bad at 3B if Devers was 3.1. You can find all these splits on FG but here's SS: www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&filter=&player=&season=2023&season1=2023&type=8&month=38Story was +0.6 there last year (he lost a lot of value in his DH games). He/Reyes/Chang basically zeroed out the Hernandez/Hamilton games. As an LF Yoshida was +0.9 in his 85 games there, Refsnyder and Duran were both +0.6, Abreu and Duvall both slightly positive, and they had no negative drags there. ADD: Story's defense was so good he was a 2.5 WAR/150 player with a 58 wRC+ when at short stop. Reason to be bullish on his upside. Ah, that makes sense on SS; had forgotten all his DH PAs. And that is just crazy on Story's defensive value...
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Post by melvinhoggs on Dec 1, 2023 14:37:32 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
My only "talking you out of" this take is to point out that, while there aren't a bunch of positions where they look to be significantly worse, consistent mediocrity isn't anything to get excited about. If you say "I think at most positions they'll be better next year" but the previous year they were extremely meh, I suppose that's technically optimism – but it isn't much.
Even if you get the 5-win swing that scotty mentioned (which isn't a tiny ask, and while still not regressing anywhere else), you're at 83 wins – which in the AL East isn't going to cut it and is still 6 wins off of the last wild card spot from 2023. I know we're only talking about position players here and not the rotation, but some of those 2-WAR guys need to take a big step forward (or get replaced) for the team to reach excitement-worthy optimism.
There's definitely moves to be made that could do it, but I do think 2024 has a high chance of being another "grit your teeth through the middle-of-the-pack" year while they see if any of Anthony/Mayer/Teel are potential stars going forward.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2023 15:43:44 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
My only "talking you out of" this take is to point out that, while there aren't a bunch of positions where they look to be significantly worse, consistent mediocrity isn't anything to get excited about. If you say "I think at most positions they'll be better next year" but the previous year they were extremely meh, I suppose that's technically optimism – but it isn't much.
Even if you get the 5-win swing that scotty mentioned (which isn't a tiny ask, and while still not regressing anywhere else), you're at 83 wins – which in the AL East isn't going to cut it and is still 6 wins off of the last wild card spot from 2023. I know we're only talking about position players here and not the rotation, but some of those 2-WAR guys need to take a big step forward (or get replaced) for the team to reach excitement-worthy optimism.
There's definitely moves to be made that could do it, but I do think 2024 has a high chance of being another "grit your teeth through the middle-of-the-pack" year while they see if any of Anthony/Mayer/Teel are potential stars going forward.
Yeah, but the rotation is the most obvious and easiest place they can get better! If they replace Kluber with Montgomery that's another 4-win swing right there. Their pythagorean in 2023 was 81 wins, so +5 at middle infield and +4 in the rotation, with everything else breaking even, gets them to 90 wins.
The Orioles, fyi, won 101 games last year with only three 3+ WAR players. And actually only seven 2+ WAR players. The Blue Jays had only four 3+ WAR players and one 4+ WAR player. "Pretty good across the board" can get it done.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 1, 2023 15:51:14 GMT -5
My only "talking you out of" this take is to point out that, while there aren't a bunch of positions where they look to be significantly worse, consistent mediocrity isn't anything to get excited about. If you say "I think at most positions they'll be better next year" but the previous year they were extremely meh, I suppose that's technically optimism – but it isn't much.
Even if you get the 5-win swing that scotty mentioned (which isn't a tiny ask, and while still not regressing anywhere else), you're at 83 wins – which in the AL East isn't going to cut it and is still 6 wins off of the last wild card spot from 2023. I know we're only talking about position players here and not the rotation, but some of those 2-WAR guys need to take a big step forward (or get replaced) for the team to reach excitement-worthy optimism.
There's definitely moves to be made that could do it, but I do think 2024 has a high chance of being another "grit your teeth through the middle-of-the-pack" year while they see if any of Anthony/Mayer/Teel are potential stars going forward.
Yeah, but the rotation is the most obvious and easiest place they can get better! If they replace Kluber with Montgomery that's another 4-win swing right there. Their pythagorean in 2023 was 81 wins, so +5 at middle infield and +4 in the rotation, with everything else breaking even, gets them to 90 wins.
The Orioles, fyi, won 101 games last year with only three 3+ WAR players. And actually only seven 2+ WAR players. The Blue Jays had only four 3+ WAR players and one 4+ WAR player. "Pretty good across the board" can get it done.
Two addition starting pitchers and an impact RH bat and they are back in the hunt for the division title in 2024. Couple big swings, they have the money. Hope the real action kicks in soon !
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Post by kwodes on Dec 1, 2023 16:16:29 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
Something to think about... In my opinion, if they add guys like Montgomery and Stroman, the focus at 2B should be a defense-first guy like edman or Kim, but if they add guys like Yamamoto and Cease, then the focus could be more offense-first like gleybar or India.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 1, 2023 16:23:28 GMT -5
Okay, someone talk me out of this pollyannaish take:
C: 2023 McWong-->2024 McWong - should be steady or slightly improved as Wong has a little more experience under his belt and will hopefully be able to take the occasional day off at the height of summer
1B: 2023 Casas-->2024 Casas - should be slightly better; he was a monster in the second half
2B: 2023 Arroyo n' friends-->2024 tbd - should be better if they make a trade, and might even be better with some stopgap FA, given that Arroyo stunk last year and Valdez had a rough early adjustment on defense
3B: 2023 Devers-->2024 Devers - xwOBA-wOBA gap says he should be better; projections say he should be better; common sense says he should be better
SS: 2023 Kiké n' friends-->2024 Story - basically has to be substantially better, even if Story doesn't hit at all
LF: 2023 Yoshida-->2024 Yoshida/Duran? - I'm optimistic that Yoshida can at least partially recover his 130 wRC+ form from the first half of last season
CF: 2023 Duvall/Duran-->2024 ? - this is the position most likely to regress, but they at least have some decent options; a Bader or Kiermaier signing would establish a decent floor
RF: 2023 Verdudgo-->2024 Verdugo/Abreu - no reason this shouldn't hold steady at 2 WAR production
DH: 2023 Turner-->2024 Garver/Soler - *if* they sign one of these two guys I think it's a slight upgrade on what they got out of Turner last year (though Turner's clutchness will be hard to replicate); if it's just a spot used to rest other guys on the roster it's a slight downgrade
All in all they should be as good or improved at every position other than CF. Maybe I am talking myself out of my early pessimism about this team's positional potential...
Something to think about... In my opinion, if they add guys like Montgomery and Stroman, the focus at 2B should be a defense-first guy like edman or Kim, but if they add guys like Yamamoto and Cease, then the focus could be more offense-first like gleybar or India. I guess my question here would be why? I don't really think a team is going to re-think who they want at 2nd base due to two SPs. Also India really isn't an offense first guy, his career wRC+ is 107 which is mostly buoyed by 2021 when he was 122. 2022 and 2023 he was 96 and 99 so not even league average offense the last two seasons.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Dec 1, 2023 16:26:11 GMT -5
My only "talking you out of" this take is to point out that, while there aren't a bunch of positions where they look to be significantly worse, consistent mediocrity isn't anything to get excited about. If you say "I think at most positions they'll be better next year" but the previous year they were extremely meh, I suppose that's technically optimism – but it isn't much.
Even if you get the 5-win swing that scotty mentioned (which isn't a tiny ask, and while still not regressing anywhere else), you're at 83 wins – which in the AL East isn't going to cut it and is still 6 wins off of the last wild card spot from 2023. I know we're only talking about position players here and not the rotation, but some of those 2-WAR guys need to take a big step forward (or get replaced) for the team to reach excitement-worthy optimism.
There's definitely moves to be made that could do it, but I do think 2024 has a high chance of being another "grit your teeth through the middle-of-the-pack" year while they see if any of Anthony/Mayer/Teel are potential stars going forward.
Yeah, but the rotation is the most obvious and easiest place they can get better! If they replace Kluber with Montgomery that's another 4-win swing right there. Their pythagorean in 2023 was 81 wins, so +5 at middle infield and +4 in the rotation, with everything else breaking even, gets them to 90 wins.
The Orioles, fyi, won 101 games last year with only three 3+ WAR players. And actually only seven 2+ WAR players. The Blue Jays had only four 3+ WAR players and one 4+ WAR player. "Pretty good across the board" can get it done.
That's with literally zero regression coming from anywhere else, and a pretty disingenuous framing of the Orioles and Blue Jays as "pretty good across the board".
You say the Orioles have only three 3+ WAR players, but two of those were well above 3 WAR (compared to the Red Sox, who only barely had a single player crack 3 WAR) – and those are also young studs, not crossing your fingers for a big Story bounce-back. And for the Jays, "only" four 3+ WAR players, with one over 5 and a whopping 8 others in the 2-3 WAR range? That's significantly better than a "pretty good" team.
If you see a 90 win team out of just adding Montgomery and an average 2B – hey, more power to you. To me that feels like a borderline pie-in-the-sky outcome. The Red Sox need to add, and with so many teams hunting for the same things I think it's gonna take more than one offseason to get into a truly exciting spot (insert obvious Ohtani caveat here).
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2023 16:30:18 GMT -5
Yeah, but the rotation is the most obvious and easiest place they can get better! If they replace Kluber with Montgomery that's another 4-win swing right there. Their pythagorean in 2023 was 81 wins, so +5 at middle infield and +4 in the rotation, with everything else breaking even, gets them to 90 wins.
The Orioles, fyi, won 101 games last year with only three 3+ WAR players. And actually only seven 2+ WAR players. The Blue Jays had only four 3+ WAR players and one 4+ WAR player. "Pretty good across the board" can get it done.
That's with literally zero regression coming from anywhere else, and a pretty disingenuous framing of the Orioles and Blue Jays as "pretty good across the board".
You say the Orioles have only three 3+ WAR players, but two of those were well above 3 WAR (compared to the Red Sox, who only barely had a single player crack 3 WAR) – and those are also young studs, not crossing your fingers for a big Story bounce-back. And for the Jays, "only" four 3+ WAR players, with one over 5 and a whopping 8 others in the 2-3 WAR range? That's significantly better than a "pretty good" team.
If you see a 90 win team out of just adding Montgomery and an average 2B – hey, more power to you. To me that feels like a borderline pie-in-the-sky outcome. The Red Sox need to add, and with so many teams hunting for the same things I think it's gonna take more than one offseason to get into a truly exciting spot (insert obvious Ohtani caveat here).
You keep saying "with no other regression" but that swings both ways. He's also not including any positive regression (Devers, for example) or improvements from other players in the calculation you quoted. It's just a back of the envelope exercise to show that the situation isn't quite so bleak, no one is saying they are going to be projected or likely division winners after this off-season.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2023 16:38:17 GMT -5
Yeah, but the rotation is the most obvious and easiest place they can get better! If they replace Kluber with Montgomery that's another 4-win swing right there. Their pythagorean in 2023 was 81 wins, so +5 at middle infield and +4 in the rotation, with everything else breaking even, gets them to 90 wins.
The Orioles, fyi, won 101 games last year with only three 3+ WAR players. And actually only seven 2+ WAR players. The Blue Jays had only four 3+ WAR players and one 4+ WAR player. "Pretty good across the board" can get it done.
That's with literally zero regression coming from anywhere else, and a pretty disingenuous framing of the Orioles and Blue Jays as "pretty good across the board".
You say the Orioles have only three 3+ WAR players, but two of those were well above 3 WAR (compared to the Red Sox, who only barely had a single player crack 3 WAR) – and those are also young studs, not crossing your fingers for a big Story bounce-back. And for the Jays, "only" four 3+ WAR players, with one over 5 and a whopping 8 others in the 2-3 WAR range? That's significantly better than a "pretty good" team.
If you see a 90 win team out of just adding Montgomery and an average 2B – hey, more power to you. To me that feels like a borderline pie-in-the-sky outcome. The Red Sox need to add, and with so many teams hunting for the same things I think it's gonna take more than one offseason to get into a truly exciting spot (insert obvious Ohtani caveat here).
Yes, the Red Sox probably need a couple guys to pop 4-5+ WAR seasons if they want to make the playoffs. But Devers is obviously capable of that. Other guys like Casas and Exciting Starting Pitcher Addition TBD have a shot at it. I also think they already have more than 8 guys with a decent shot at a 2-3 WAR season: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Casas, Story, Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo are all in that boat (though not all will get there), and maybe Abreu, Valdez, and Rafaela as well.
I'm not expecting the Red Sox to project for 90 wins when all is said and done this offseason. But I expect them to be in a place where 90 wins is a legitimate possibility if things mostly go right.
(Should I put a dictionary definition of 'disingenuous' in my sig line? People really struggle with that one...)
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Post by kwodes on Dec 1, 2023 16:43:03 GMT -5
Something to think about... In my opinion, if they add guys like Montgomery and Stroman, the focus at 2B should be a defense-first guy like edman or Kim, but if they add guys like Yamamoto and Cease, then the focus could be more offense-first like gleybar or India. I guess my question here would be why? I don't really think a team is going to re-think who they want at 2nd base due to two SPs. Also India really isn't an offense first guy, his career wRC+ is 107 which is mostly buoyed by 2021 when he was 122. 2022 and 2023 he was 96 and 99 so not even league average offense the last two seasons. if you sign 2 SPs who are high contact, ground ball types, defense is much more important to the success of the team. If you get guys who are big time strikeout guys, defense is less important
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Post by soxheater5 on Dec 1, 2023 16:55:58 GMT -5
Does Pablo make the opening day roster?
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Post by melvinhoggs on Dec 1, 2023 17:14:20 GMT -5
That's with literally zero regression coming from anywhere else, and a pretty disingenuous framing of the Orioles and Blue Jays as "pretty good across the board".
You say the Orioles have only three 3+ WAR players, but two of those were well above 3 WAR (compared to the Red Sox, who only barely had a single player crack 3 WAR) – and those are also young studs, not crossing your fingers for a big Story bounce-back. And for the Jays, "only" four 3+ WAR players, with one over 5 and a whopping 8 others in the 2-3 WAR range? That's significantly better than a "pretty good" team.
If you see a 90 win team out of just adding Montgomery and an average 2B – hey, more power to you. To me that feels like a borderline pie-in-the-sky outcome. The Red Sox need to add, and with so many teams hunting for the same things I think it's gonna take more than one offseason to get into a truly exciting spot (insert obvious Ohtani caveat here).
Yes, the Red Sox probably need a couple guys to pop 4-5+ WAR seasons if they want to make the playoffs. But Devers is obviously capable of that. Other guys like Casas and Exciting Starting Pitcher Addition TBD have a shot at it. I also think they already have more than 8 guys with a decent shot at a 2-3 WAR season: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Casas, Story, Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo are all in that boat (though not all will get there), and maybe Abreu, Valdez, and Rafaela as well.
I'm not expecting the Red Sox to project for 90 wins when all is said and done this offseason. But I expect them to be in a place where 90 wins is a legitimate possibility if things mostly go right.
(Should I put a dictionary definition of 'disingenuous' in my sig line? People really struggle with that one...) Why feel the need to include a semantic snipe in an otherwise totally normal debate over where the Sox are at? Here, from Miriam-Webster: "A disingenuous remark might contain some superficial truth, but it is delivered with the intent to deceive or to serve some hidden purpose." I used that word because you set the 3-WAR bar to evaluate the Orioles and Blue Jays, but it's deceptive because they don't just have 3+ WAR players, they have 4+ and 5+ WAR players. The Red Sox having one 3+ WAR player vs. the Orioles having three 3+ WAR players sounds like it's not a big gap, but in reality it is.
re: Scotty, he actually is already including positive regression in that 5-win middle infield swing – very notably in the case of Story, who you're banking on being healthy and reasonably productive (which is fine, I don't have issue with people believing in him bouncing back). There's some definite bright spots for possible steps forward (Casas, most readily) but there's also guys like Duran and Kutter who need to prove they're for real.
My outlook is mainly just that there's enough talent in the free agent pool to see a real competitor, but I think it takes a good bit more than one mid/upper range signing (like a Montgomery type) to get there, and there's enough teams fighting over the good stuff that I think it might be another year before they assemble the necessary pieces.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 1, 2023 17:42:51 GMT -5
I guess my question here would be why? I don't really think a team is going to re-think who they want at 2nd base due to two SPs. Also India really isn't an offense first guy, his career wRC+ is 107 which is mostly buoyed by 2021 when he was 122. 2022 and 2023 he was 96 and 99 so not even league average offense the last two seasons. if you sign 2 SPs who are high contact, ground ball types, defense is much more important to the success of the team. If you get guys who are big time strikeout guys, defense is less important The defense needs to get better one way or another so I don't really think who they sign for sp this year will really have a meaningful effect for who they try to get for 2nd base.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 2, 2023 8:26:15 GMT -5
My outlook is mainly just that there's enough talent in the free agent pool to see a real competitor, but I think it takes a good bit more than one mid/upper range signing (like a Montgomery type) to get there, and there's enough teams fighting over the good stuff that I think it might be another year before they assemble the necessary pieces.
I agree with this - and Merloni made the comparison on Twitter to the 2016-2018 buildup where they got Price in Year 1 and then Sale in Year 2 (all while Benintendi/Devers make their way the majors). A team with like a Sale-Bello-Montgomery starting unit, to go with an offensive core of Devers, (Righty slugger of your choice), Casas, Story, Yoshida is not like, bad. If we relocated to Boston, Indiana so we could join one of the Central Divisions, I’d be very confident of our playoffs odds with such a team in 2024. But at present it’s hard to imagine that matching up favorably over 162 with a Yankees team a few weeks (or a few days) of public negotiation posturing away from trading for Juan Soto, or an Orioles team that’s already loaded with talent not far from promoting Jackson Holliday from middle school. (Weirdly, I don’t know how to rate the Blue Jays, who need to replace half their lineup - or the Rays, who have a rotation’s worth of dudes getting Tommy John and whose best player might go to prison.) At the very least next season if they are two games out of the Wild Card hunt come July, they might actually make a deadline move with the aim of trying to win this time.
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