SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
|
Post by pappyman99 on Dec 2, 2023 11:49:10 GMT -5
Trying to be creative here
Sign Yamamoto
Trade Pivetta, Verdugo and Yorke the Padres for Kim and Suaurez(yeah we have to deal with that contract)
Trade Houck, Duran, and Perales to the Brewers for Burnes
Sign Teoscar Hernandez
Yamamoto Burnes Sale Bello Crawford
Yoshida DH Kim 2B Devers 3B Hernandez LF Casas 1B Story SS Abreu RF Wong C Rafaela CF
Obviously pitching becomes a huge strength, and we get dominant defense up the middle, and more balance between lefties and right handed batters
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Dec 2, 2023 13:03:56 GMT -5
I`d love to see the Sox get Kim. Why do people think the Padres will trade him? They are trying to cut payroll. He`s only getting $8 mil next two years.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 2, 2023 13:27:10 GMT -5
I`d love to see the Sox get Kim. Why do people think the Padres will trade him? They are trying to cut payroll. He`s only getting $8 mil next two years. Isn’t it more than that for LT purposes? Which if your SD is a big deal because they’ve been over for two years. They’re looking to clear out payroll and get under. BTV accepts Houck/Yorke/Gonzalez for Kim and Soto. … … … please don’t get mad at me Not sure how realistic this is. But if you buy pitching with those two guys then you’re automatically right back into being a serious contender. Me thinks
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2023 15:44:02 GMT -5
I`d love to see the Sox get Kim. Why do people think the Padres will trade him? They are trying to cut payroll. He`s only getting $8 mil next two years. Isn’t it more than that for LT purposes? Which if your SD is a big deal because they’ve been over for two years. They’re looking to clear out payroll and get under. BTV accepts Houck/Yorke/Gonzalez for Kim and Soto. … … … please don’t get mad at me Not sure how realistic this is. But if you buy pitching with those two guys then you’re automatically right back into being a serious contender. Me thinks Now only if Preller would accept such a deal, lol. I think the computer blew a fuse with this one. If that's all it took to get Soto AND Kim... No, it's not realistic at all.
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Dec 2, 2023 20:52:42 GMT -5
I`d love to see the Sox get Kim. Why do people think the Padres will trade him? They are trying to cut payroll. He`s only getting $8 mil next two years. Isn’t it more than that for LT purposes? Which if your SD is a big deal because they’ve been over for two years. They’re looking to clear out payroll and get under. BTV accepts Houck/Yorke/Gonzalez for Kim and Soto. … … … please don’t get mad at me Not sure how realistic this is. But if you buy pitching with those two guys then you’re automatically right back into being a serious contender. Me thinks My understanding of BTV’s model is it’s purely assessing (in a vacuum) a projection of on-field value for the length of a player’s remaining contract/team control in comparison to a player’s financial cost. (I.e. surplus value.) It’s completely agnostic to factors like a team’s competitive window, or teams trying to bid for the same player in a trade, etc. Soto has only year of control left (as does Kim for that matter) at a quite pricey $30 mil, so that diminishes his value according to their model. But realistically any of the teams looking to acquire him is probably more worried about the prospect cost in the face of possibly not retaining Soto after next year and could care less about the final year of arbitration $. And for a Padres team looking to move him, they face the complications of 1) having dealt a CRAP TON to get Soto to begin with, 2) alleged financial issues necessitating a possible Soto trade, 3) a GM in AJ Preller who might be desperate to save his job (he’s been there for almost 10 years and the billionaire owner who was fond of Preller despite some terrible decisions just passed away). On that last point, just not sure Preller would see that package as something that could keep him employed - but one can always hope!
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 2, 2023 21:14:25 GMT -5
Isn’t it more than that for LT purposes? Which if your SD is a big deal because they’ve been over for two years. They’re looking to clear out payroll and get under. BTV accepts Houck/Yorke/Gonzalez for Kim and Soto. … … … please don’t get mad at me Not sure how realistic this is. But if you buy pitching with those two guys then you’re automatically right back into being a serious contender. Me thinks My understanding of BTV’s model is it’s purely assessing (in a vacuum) a projection of on-field value for the length of a player’s remaining contract/team control in comparison to a player’s financial cost. (I.e. surplus value.) It’s completely agnostic to factors like a team’s competitive window, or teams trying to bid for the same player in a trade, etc. Soto has only year of control left (as does Kim for that matter) at a quite pricey $30 mil, so that diminishes his value according to their model. But realistically any of the teams looking to acquire him is probably more worried about the prospect cost in the face of possibly not retaining Soto after next year and could care less about the final year of arbitration $. And for a Padres team looking to move him, they face the complications of 1) having dealt a CRAP TON to get Soto to begin with, 2) alleged financial issues necessitating a possible Soto trade, 3) a GM in AJ Preller who might be desperate to save his job (he’s been there for almost 10 years and the billionaire owner who was fond of Preller despite some terrible decisions just passed away). On that last point, just not sure Preller would see that package as something that could keep him employed - but one can always hope! Ouch, thought that Kim's 2025 option was a team one, not mutual. So he will be a FA after 2024 also. That takes any deal with the Padres for one or both of Soto/ Kim off the table in my mind. To give up 3 potential long term players for 2 rentals would be irresponsible to me.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 2, 2023 21:22:47 GMT -5
So according to some it’s a hang up the phone under pay and to others it’s irresponsibly too high…..hmm maybe that means I’m right on the money. I kid, I’m not going to pretend I’m the smartest guy in the room and I’m very good at this but I do think I have one good point in me tonight.
One thing some of us, and BTV for that matter can’t factor in is how another team projects and values our prospects/players. How valuable a guy like Yorke/Gonzalez can be may vary wildly, and even someone like Houck can too depending on if a team views him as a starter or a reliever. We just don’t know. Personally, I think if they were high on those guys they would likely accept that deal. Could be a lot to give up, but none of those guys are blue chippers, and you’re all set with the lineup after that. Literally nothing else to do but buy pitching and take the QOs in 2024/5
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 2, 2023 22:04:21 GMT -5
So according to some it’s a hang up the phone under pay and to others it’s irresponsibly too high…..hmm maybe that means I’m right on the money. I kid, I’m not going to pretend I’m the smartest guy in the room and I’m very good at this but I do think I have one good point in me tonight. One thing some of us, and BTV for that matter can’t factor in is how another team projects and values our prospects/players. How valuable a guy like Yorke/Gonzalez can be may vary wildly, and even someone like Houck can too depending on if a team views him as a starter or a reliever. We just don’t know. Personally, I think if they were high on those guys they would likely accept that deal. Could be a lot to give up, but none of those guys are blue chippers, and you’re all set with the lineup after that. Literally nothing else to do but buy pitching and take the QOs in 2024/5 It does make one wonder. If Houk, Yorke and Gonzalez could net Soto and Kim, why not those 3 for Tatis if they are perceived that good ? ( rhetorical, not directed at you). For 2024, I would be happy with 2 starters and would be very happy with Teoscar H or Yuri G for a RH bat in free agency.
|
|
|
Post by bg23 on Dec 3, 2023 10:29:46 GMT -5
So according to some it’s a hang up the phone under pay and to others it’s irresponsibly too high…..hmm maybe that means I’m right on the money. I kid, I’m not going to pretend I’m the smartest guy in the room and I’m very good at this but I do think I have one good point in me tonight. One thing some of us, and BTV for that matter can’t factor in is how another team projects and values our prospects/players. How valuable a guy like Yorke/Gonzalez can be may vary wildly, and even someone like Houck can too depending on if a team views him as a starter or a reliever. We just don’t know. Personally, I think if they were high on those guys they would likely accept that deal. Could be a lot to give up, but none of those guys are blue chippers, and you’re all set with the lineup after that. Literally nothing else to do but buy pitching and take the QOs in 2024/5 It does make one wonder. If Houk, Yorke and Gonzalez could net Soto and Kim, why not those 3 for Tatis if they are perceived that good ? ( rhetorical, not directed at you). For 2024, I would be happy with 2 starters and would be very happy with Teoscar H or Yuri G for a RH bat in free agency. I would say 10+ years of Tatis is more valuable by multiples than one year of Kim and Soto each, so that’s probably your reasoning. Teams tend not to trade blue chippers for rentals, but for a star on a contract like that? Good luck keeping even one of Mayer or Anthony unless you are taking Xander back too.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2023 10:49:25 GMT -5
Teoscar or Yuri guriel sound okay as options for LF depending on what their plans are for Yoshida. I'd personally like to see Yoshida DH more often than play the field but it didn't sound like that's their plan. If that's the case then teoscar or guriel don't really fit what they need IMO as I don't think either really hit well enough to play the bulk of time at DH and don't field well enough to play RF. I'm hoping there is a trade to be made for a solid RHH bat, preferably one who can play LF/1st. Who that would be is anyone's guess but it would seem to me that'd be about the perfect fit to the current roster.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 3, 2023 11:33:09 GMT -5
Teoscar or Yuri guriel sound okay as options for LF depending on what their plans are for Yoshida. I'd personally like to see Yoshida DH more often than play the field but it didn't sound like that's their plan. If that's the case then teoscar or guriel don't really fit what they need IMO as I don't think either really hit well enough to play the bulk of time at DH and don't field well enough to play RF. I'm hoping there is a trade to be made for a solid RHH bat, preferably one who can play LF/1st. Who that would be is anyone's guess but it would seem to me that'd be about the perfect fit to the current roster. Youre talking about getting someone better, but this isn’t too far off from Adam Duvall
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2023 12:04:51 GMT -5
Teoscar or Yuri guriel sound okay as options for LF depending on what their plans are for Yoshida. I'd personally like to see Yoshida DH more often than play the field but it didn't sound like that's their plan. If that's the case then teoscar or guriel don't really fit what they need IMO as I don't think either really hit well enough to play the bulk of time at DH and don't field well enough to play RF. I'm hoping there is a trade to be made for a solid RHH bat, preferably one who can play LF/1st. Who that would be is anyone's guess but it would seem to me that'd be about the perfect fit to the current roster. Youre talking about getting someone better, but this isn’t too far off from Adam Duvall I'd take Duvall back. I'd assume he's going to get a 1 year deal. The reason I don't love Hernandez is he's probably getting a 3+ year deal from what ive seen which I don't want to see the Sox do. Guriel fits the LF/1st base ability but he's 39 and just put up back to back negative WAR years so I'm not sure why anyone should expect a bounce back.
|
|
|
Post by soxheater5 on Dec 3, 2023 12:35:27 GMT -5
Debating between Teoscar, Soler, and Duvall for that righty outfield/DH option. With Verdugo 100% gone, I think you are going to need a righty DH who can shift to the outfield, making Teoscar probably a more viable option than Soler. While I would have no issue with bringing Duvall back, I just feel like he's bound to head elsewhere. With that being said, this is what I want the core of the opening day lineup to look like with Verdugo gone, a second baseman added, a righty outfielder/DH added, and Turner brought back
vs RHP
CF Duran L SS Story R 3B Devers L 1B Casas L LF Yoshida L DH *Soler/Teoscar* R RF Wilyer L 2B *Polanco/India* S/R C Reese L
vs LHP
CF Rafaela SS Story 3B Devers 1B Casas DH Turner LF Yoshida RF *Soler/Teoscar* 2B *Polanco/India* S/R C Wong R
This seems like the most realistic option. Retaining Turner and adding another righty OF/DH option just makes too much sense. I also want to note Polanco is getting very high up on my offseason wish list for the Sox.
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Dec 3, 2023 12:37:08 GMT -5
Youre talking about getting someone better, but this isn’t too far off from Adam Duvall I'd take Duvall back. I'd assume he's going to get a 1 year deal. The reason I don't love Hernandez is he's probably getting a 3+ year deal from what ive seen which I don't want to see the Sox do. Guriel fits the LF/1st base ability but he's 39 and just put up back to back negative WAR years so I'm not sure why anyone should expect a bounce back. Just to make sure, which Gurriel brother are you thinking of? Are you thinking of Yuli Gurriel, the longtime Astros, or Lourdes Gurriel, who’s a free agent coming off the D-backs? Lourdes is 30.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2023 13:06:12 GMT -5
I'd take Duvall back. I'd assume he's going to get a 1 year deal. The reason I don't love Hernandez is he's probably getting a 3+ year deal from what ive seen which I don't want to see the Sox do. Guriel fits the LF/1st base ability but he's 39 and just put up back to back negative WAR years so I'm not sure why anyone should expect a bounce back. Just to make sure, which Gurriel brother are you thinking of? Are you thinking of Yuli Gurriel, the longtime Astros, or Lourdes Gurriel, who’s a free agent coming off the D-backs? Lourdes is 30. Sounds like I mixed em up. My bad. I just looked up Lourdes. 2.1 fWAR last year. I'd take him depending on price. Wouldn't be too eager to give a multi year deal on him tho.
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Dec 3, 2023 13:45:08 GMT -5
I’d definitely take Teoscar over Duvall, he was still damn good offensively away from the mariners park
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2023 15:09:08 GMT -5
I’d definitely take Teoscar over Duvall, he was still damn good offensively away from the mariners park Teoscar for a year or two sounds fine but 3+ I don't think would be a good idea.
|
|
|
Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Dec 3, 2023 15:13:51 GMT -5
So the rumored "Splash"? can two 2nd choices move the needle enough, for the Org. without landing the big fish.
I'm not really feeling great about where it appears the Yamamoto market looks to be headed. I've seen speculation pushing the package to almost 10yr 300$mil. I just don't think Boston goes there.
I think Montgomery looks like the most likely pitcher to end up in Boston and to me he's kind of a decent #3 not an ace. It reminds me a bit of the Eovaldi days where they try to polish up a really good pitcher into a star.
I think that Breslow is trying to thread a needle on the trade front, but I just don't see a great fit on the pitching side.
So if Our 1st choice goes elsewhere what twosome or even threesome gets the team to the next tier? Satisfies out star lust and doesn't jeoparize the future?
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2023 16:20:08 GMT -5
So the rumored "Splash"? can two 2nd choices move the needle enough, for the Org. without landing the big fish. I'm not really feeling great about where it appears the Yamamoto market looks to be headed. I've seen speculation pushing the package to almost 10yr 300$mil. I just don't think Boston goes there. I think Montgomery looks like the most likely pitcher to end up in Boston and to me he's kind of a decent #3 not an ace. It reminds me a bit of the Eovaldi days where they try to polish up a really good pitcher into a star. I think that Breslow is trying to thread a needle on the trade front, but I just don't see a great fit on the pitching side. So if Our 1st choice goes elsewhere what twosome or even threesome gets the team to the next tier? Satisfies out star lust and doesn't jeoparize the future? I know you said to you he's kind of a decent #3 and I get that but the last 2 years Montgomery has been a very good #3 if not a #2 and the post season run was a #1. I don't buy this run as his true ability but I do think he's a solid #2 good #3 which any pitching staff can use. He also takes the ball and eats innings. This staff could look really good with Montgomery.
|
|
|
Post by 0ap0 on Dec 3, 2023 16:22:03 GMT -5
So if Our 1st choice goes elsewhere what twosome or even threesome gets the team to the next tier? Satisfies out star lust and doesn't jeoparize the future? Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 3, 2023 16:27:46 GMT -5
Over the last two seasons Montgomery is 14th in fWAR and 10th in RA9-WAR. He might not be Cole/Alcantara/Burnes but he's pretty dang good
|
|
|
Post by ghostofjuanpena on Dec 3, 2023 16:40:14 GMT -5
He’s a perfect number 2 starter , I don’t think they can sign him and Yamamoto but that’s the optimal 1 and 2. I think Breslow will trade for someone, a good number 2 type no one has mentioned to much
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Dec 3, 2023 17:06:17 GMT -5
So the rumored "Splash"? can two 2nd choices move the needle enough, for the Org. without landing the big fish. I'm not really feeling great about where it appears the Yamamoto market looks to be headed. I've seen speculation pushing the package to almost 10yr 300$mil. I just don't think Boston goes there. I think Montgomery looks like the most likely pitcher to end up in Boston and to me he's kind of a decent #3 not an ace. It reminds me a bit of the Eovaldi days where they try to polish up a really good pitcher into a star. I think that Breslow is trying to thread a needle on the trade front, but I just don't see a great fit on the pitching side. So if Our 1st choice goes elsewhere what twosome or even threesome gets the team to the next tier? Satisfies out star lust and doesn't jeoparize the future? I know you said to you he's kind of a decent #3 and I get that but the last 2 years Montgomery has been a very good #3 if not a #2 and the post season run was a #1. I don't buy this run as his true ability but I do think he's a solid #2 good #3 which any pitching staff can use. He also takes the ball and eats innings. This staff could look really good with Montgomery. Being the second best pitcher on a World Series team - especially a team like the Rangers where only Eovaldi and Montgomery were the only reliable arms and carried that staff - definitely counts for something. One would think with his build and his stuff not tied necessarily to velocity, he would age rather well. But for every Jon Lester following up regular season consistency & playoff success by being a productive into his mid-30’s, there’s a Madison Bumgarner.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2023 17:13:29 GMT -5
I don't see why the Sox can't sign both Montgomery and Yamamoto. The Sox should be willing to go a good distance over the tax limit. They need two topflight starters. Montgomery might kind of fall into their laps considering his wife's work situation, but if the Sox said, we have Montgomery so we don't need to go all out to sign Yamamoto, then shame on them. If they'd rather trade away some of their top prospects to get a top starter, that wouldn't make sense. Hell even if they signed both Yamamoto and Montgomery, if a reasonable trade fell into their laps the Sox should go for it. If they could get Burnes for Crawford, Houck, and a prospect not in the top 5, they should consider it, and make it 3 starters added. Not that it's very likely at all, but could you imagine a rotation of Yamamoto, Burnes, and Montgomery along with Bello and Sale and Pivetta for when Sale breaks down?
Anyways, the main reason for my post here is the realization that eventually Breslow whether it's this winter or next will have some decisions to make regarding the composition of the lineup.
As it stands now, Devers and Casas are their two main guys. They're locked into Yoshida. Duran and Verdugo are there for now along with Abreu. It's highly unlikely they could try Valdez at 2b if he could get his defense up to mediocre.
And they have Mayer, Anthony, and Teel rapidly ascending toward the majors in 2025 potentially.
So say an unlikely scenario occurs and the Sox trade away Yorke and Valdez winds up at 2b as Story gets hurt or declines precipitously. Teel takes over behind the plate. Mayer takes over SS, Anthony takes over RF, and Duran somehow sticks around in CF with Yoshida is the DH and apparently in this silly scenario Rafaela was the one dealt, not Duran.
So it's Dec 2024, Soto has finished up his season as a Blue Jay and is now a free agent and the suddenly spend willing Sox descend upon Soto and sign him to a huge deal to guard the Monster for the next decade.
So the Sox have an outfield of Soto/Duran/Anthony, and infield of Casas/Valdez/Mayer/Devers and Teel behind the plate.
Congrats the Sox. They now have an all lefthanded lineup!!
Yes, this has been a silly exercise in extremes but it goes to illustrate how lefty they are and how that might preclude them from trying to land Soto next year. I mean, how could you not want Soto if he becomes a free agent? And a trade to Toronto would likely make that a reality, which would leave the Yankees salivating (and the Mets and the Dodgers, etc) given that the Yankees didn't want to deal away anybody.
In reality either Yorke or Story by 2025, probably winds up at 2b and Rafaela, if he can hit enough, probably lands in CF, so that's two RH hitters, neither of whom are hitters you'd want to stuff in the middle of the order to separate Devers from Casas, so eventually there's probably some scenarios where Breslow will be doing some trading just to balance the composition of the lineup out. This year he probably brings back Turner (I'd prefer JD Martinez), and potentially Duval. None of Hernandez or Gurriel or anybody really excites.
Maybe there's a premier RH hitter next offseason to be had? Hard to imagine they'd have the impact of Soto and I'd hate to think the Sox cannot make a legit run at Soto if he were available just because they lean too lefty heavy already, but that's one of the things Breslow will probably be looking at.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 3, 2023 19:16:13 GMT -5
Morosi speculating the Rays will listen on Isaac Paredes since he's now arb eligible. He would be perfect for 2B (and actually Arozarena and Glasnow are interesting fits too) but doubt there's a big Sox/Rays trade to be made.
|
|
|