Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

I wonder if Langeliers or Gelof would be available in a trade with Oakland.

Langeliers had a 105 wRC+ in the 2nd half of the year, and is a RHB with a huge Pulled FB% making him a good fit for Fenway like Duvall. He would be an upgrade over Wong and he’s under control until 2029. If the bat develops far enough, if he was pushed off of C by Teel he could play some LF and DH.

Gelof has some pop, played a slightly above average 2B last year, has speed, and is a line drive hitter who I would consider more park neutral.

Neither would be cheap by any means, and Oakland might not want to trade them, but they’re not competing anytime soon.

I like the Sox opening day roster better than the yankees right now. Especially the pitching staff both in the pen and rotation. The lineup favors us at 3B and 1B. It`s a push at SS and C. They have a big advantage in the OF and 2B which is where the Sox are trying to improve. I also like the better depth the Sox have. Plus our payroll is in better shape. I`m still pretty optimistic this off season can go good.

  This guy suggests the Angels could move 2b/UTIL Luis Rengifo, who played more 2b than anything last year:

"Rengifo, 27 in February, is coming off the best season of his career in 2023. After entering the All Star break with a mediocre .219/.312/.326 slash line, the switch-hitter caught fire down the stretch with a .318/.374/.587 the rest of the way until his season came to an end due to a torn biceps tendon that ended up requiring surgery. With Rengifo expected to be ready for Spring Training, however, it’s easy to see why rival clubs would be interested in his services. Overall, Rengifo posted a solid 114 wRC+ while playing passable defense all around the diamond, with time spent at second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield spots over the course of the 2023 season. That positional flexibility paired with a solid bat would make Rengifo a worthwhile addition for most any team, and the fact that he can be controlled for two seasons surely makes him all the more enticing for rival clubs, and the presence of Brandon Drury could allow the Angels to replace Rengifo at the keystone fairly seamlessly."   www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/several-angels-players-reportedly-drawing-trade-interest.html

You need to trade something to get something and I’d rather trade him than Casas, Bello, Mayer, Anthony, or Teel. If one of Rafaela or Duran can get a deal for a good young pitcher done, I’m not losing sleep over it, as much as I like both of those guys.

With his physical blessing of speed, Duran should be a gifted outfielder. What he could be taught is the thinking part of the game, slow the game down in his mind.  I think, through observation, that he really struggles with that in CF. Too many options to process perhaps. Maybe RF could be a better fit. Maybe Dewey Evans could come in and work with him like he did with Verdugo last year. 

This time last year, Duran was right there with Dalbec as a DFA candidate. Then something special happened. Count me in for keeping him around to see where that magic leads him. 

As someone who very much wants to trade Duran, I would summarize it this way:

1. He's a classic "sell high" player who we've already seen bottom out in Boston

2. The future core of this team is young, left-handed hitters (Devers, Casas, Mayer, Anthony, Teel) and Duran has a noticeable platoon split

3. He's not a strong enough defender in center field, he doesn't have the arm for right field, and his best position, left field, is one of the few positions where the Sox could add a right-handed power hitter to balance the future left-leaning core

At a time when the franchise has pressing needs, he's exactly the kind of redundant young talent you look to move for starting pitching or right-handed power. Teams that might be in the market for a cost-controlled left fielder include Cleveland, Seattle, Houston, LAA, Oakland, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Washington.

Duran is in line for major regression, I wouldn’t not be surprised at all if he isn’t even a 1 WAR player next year

My hunch is the whole league feels this way which is probably why we haven’t traded him

His BABIP was extremely high, his xWOBA was pretty low nothing to me says he will be improving or repeating what he did last season

Definitely all true. His BABIP was extraordinarilly high at .381. While I suspect that BABIP will be a strength for him due to his speed, that number is not sustainable.

He's like too many other guys we have on the field in that his defensive deficiencies cannibalize his offensive value. B-Ref and FG have him at 2.1 and 2.4 WAR respectively. I would expect those numbers to be higher for a CF who had a 121 OPS-plus and 120 wRC+ and was 24 for 26 in SB.

It's a tough call whether to shop him or keep him. The offensive energy he brings is tantalizing. But there are reasons to move him. I also agree with your point about other teams seeing him as a regression candidate.

I get the thought of dealing Duran it takes something to get something and he's seemingly expendable but I do question how much value he has. If he can be the headliner for a young starter then I'm all for it. I don't know that he brings that back yet though.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dodgers-remain-interested-in-teoscar-hernandez.html

I don’t know if Hernandez’s camp or every other FA are using it he dodgers to drive up their price, but I’ll be routing hard for the Dodgers to crash and burn if they swoop in.

Regression to what? With so little time in MLB we don’t know a lot. We do know his defense kept improving as he learned the outfield. His earliest efforts may have been keystone cop awful, but as he actually did start to figure things out it seems more likely that trend will continue. Ellsbury’s early defensive numbers were off the charts bad. He got better and better, as could Duran.

His BABIP has always been high. It will never be low. While pitchers and catchers may figure him out to some degree, he is as likely to adapt and keep improving. Speed and baserunning have been a uniquely exceptional skill set since his jet propelled days at CSULB. IMO Duran pioneered using the several new pitch clock, shifting, etc. rules to enhance his BABIP.

In fact, the league not only wanted to shorten games but also a return to the base running excitement fans lived for prior to the HR era. Very, very few MLB players have Duran’s combination of speed and baserunning skills. As has been said here repeatedly, watching him can be a reason to watch the game. I look forward to watching, on the edge of my seat, the running games of Duran, Story, McGuire, Rafaella, Hamilton, more. What might they accomplish with several on the team at the same time? When the team is complete and the lineup balanced, come ST, we can expect this offense to again deliver 200 HR but also, hopefully, 400 doubles, triples and hustle to keep the offense moving and the games a must-watch experience.

No one said .400 and no one is expecting magic. I am expecting continually improved defense and continued exploitation of the new rules, making him the genuine asset we saw when drafted. He has improved to the point of making games more interesting AND winnable. You can’t trade that away for what he can return at this point.