SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 27, 2023 15:50:51 GMT -5
Would be thrilled to trade Jansen for anything of value.
|
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Dec 27, 2023 17:13:56 GMT -5
Does anyone have a decent read on Poloncos D at 2B. DRS didn’t hate him last year but OAA he’s always below average. I know injuries could have played a part last season and he seemed like a different hitter after the break.
|
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 27, 2023 17:24:47 GMT -5
Does anyone have a decent read on Poloncos D at 2B. DRS didn’t hate him last year but OAA he’s always below average. I know injuries could have played a part last season and he seemed like a different hitter after the break. The FG Def metric is not impressed. My personal read is that if you’re not improving defense there, then don’t bother bringing in another bat-first guy. We’ve already got a bat-first platoon there. If you can’t find a real starting caliber 2B, pick up a glove-first backup and spend the rest of the money on pitching. |
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan15 on Dec 27, 2023 17:56:53 GMT -5
Taking another stab at my original post here.
Lineup
Ha Seong Kim - 2B
Devers - 3B
Hernandez - LF
Casas - 1B
Story - SS
Yoshida - DH
O'Neill - CF
Abreu - RF
Wong - C
I think the Red Sox are going to sign Hernandez. I would prefer Soler, he's a better hitter, will be much cheaper as well. When that signing is complete, they'll trade Duran in a package to the Padres who desperately need outfielders, bringing us Ha-Seong Kim who will tighten up the middle infield defense, offer a good on base percentage and make up for some of the dynamism that Duran had (Kim had 36 SBs last year). If the Red Sox get Soler instead of Hernandez, I actually feel pretty solid about this lineup.
Rotation:
Sale
Imanaga
Bello
Giolito
Pivetta
I don't expect nor want the Red Sox to sign Montgomery to a massive deal and I think they can sign Imanaga 5/100 and Giolito 2/40 and it doesn't hurt my head too much. Crawford should be stretched out at AAA until the inevitable first injury. I would do the same with Whitlock.
Bullpen
Kenley
Houck
Martin
Slaten
Mata
Bernardino
Winckowski
Murphy (mostly as a long man)
Bench
McGuire
Reyes
Valdez
Refsynder
|
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 27, 2023 18:11:09 GMT -5
Taking another stab at my original post here. Lineup Ha Seong Kim - 2B Devers - 3B Hernandez - LF Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - DH O'Neill - CF Abreu - RF Wong - C I think the Red Sox are going to sign Hernandez. I would prefer Soler, he's a better hitter, will be much cheaper as well. When that signing is complete, they'll trade Duran in a package to the Padres who desperately need outfielders, bringing us Ha-Seong Kim who will tighten up the middle infield defense, offer a good on base percentage and make up for some of the dynamism that Duran had (Kim had 36 SBs last year). If the Red Sox get Soler instead of Hernandez, I actually feel pretty solid about this lineup. Rotation: Sale Imanaga Bello Giolito Pivetta I don't expect nor want the Red Sox to sign Montgomery to a massive deal and I think they can sign Imanaga 5/100 and Giolito 2/40 and it doesn't hurt my head too much. Crawford should be stretched out at AAA until the inevitable first injury. I would do the same with Whitlock. Bullpen Kenley Houck Martin Slaten Mata Bernardino Winckowski Murphy (mostly as a long man) Bench McGuire Reyes Valdez Refsynder I would think the Padres would need more than Duran to trade Kim. Maybe Crawford and Duran for Kim. Maybe. |
|
|
|
Post by wanderingdude on Dec 27, 2023 18:29:50 GMT -5
Taking another stab at my original post here. Lineup Ha Seong Kim - 2B Devers - 3B Hernandez - LF Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - DH O'Neill - CF Abreu - RF Wong - C I think the Red Sox are going to sign Hernandez. I would prefer Soler, he's a better hitter, will be much cheaper as well. When that signing is complete, they'll trade Duran in a package to the Padres who desperately need outfielders, bringing us Ha-Seong Kim who will tighten up the middle infield defense, offer a good on base percentage and make up for some of the dynamism that Duran had (Kim had 36 SBs last year). If the Red Sox get Soler instead of Hernandez, I actually feel pretty solid about this lineup. Rotation: Sale Imanaga Bello Giolito Pivetta I don't expect nor want the Red Sox to sign Montgomery to a massive deal and I think they can sign Imanaga 5/100 and Giolito 2/40 and it doesn't hurt my head too much. Crawford should be stretched out at AAA until the inevitable first injury. I would do the same with Whitlock. Bullpen Kenley Houck Martin Slaten Mata Bernardino Winckowski Murphy (mostly as a long man) Bench McGuire Reyes Valdez Refsynder I would think the Padres would need more than Duran to trade Kim. Maybe Crawford and Duran for Kim. Maybe. Kim is obviously a great player and an amazing fit here, but he also only had one year left on his deal. i would be pretty hesitant to trade duran alone, and no chance i am attaching crawford to that trade as well. The padres probably want to keep him anyway and the ask may be that high, but i wouldn’t do it. |
|
chaimtime
Veteran
Posts: 1,017
Member is Online
|
Post by chaimtime on Dec 27, 2023 18:36:41 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close.
|
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan15 on Dec 27, 2023 18:41:57 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close. I agree, Padres need outfielders, they currently have two. One year left and Duran has 4 or 5 years left. I think the Red Sox could get a prospect in the deal as well if they want trade Duran. With Anthony on the way up, I'm not as worried about trading Duran if the return is Kim and a prospect. |
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Dec 27, 2023 18:44:38 GMT -5
[/quote] The FG Def metric is not impressed. My personal read is that if you’re not improving defense there, then don’t bother bringing in another bat-first guy. We’ve already got a bat-first platoon there. If you can’t find a real starting caliber 2B, pick up a glove-first backup and spend the rest of the money on pitching.[/quote]
Kind of where I am. Somebody like his teammate Farmer could be a nice option for a semi platoon with Valdez.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,578
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Dec 27, 2023 19:55:27 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close. I agree, Padres need outfielders, they currently have two. One year left and Duran has 4 or 5 years left. I think the Red Sox could get a prospect in the deal as well if they want trade Duran. With Anthony on the way up, I'm not as worried about trading Duran if the return is Kim and a prospect. Duran, Winck, Valdez for Kim and Musgrove |
|
|
|
Post by levi on Dec 27, 2023 20:04:45 GMT -5
I agree, Padres need outfielders, they currently have two. One year left and Duran has 4 or 5 years left. I think the Red Sox could get a prospect in the deal as well if they want trade Duran. With Anthony on the way up, I'm not as worried about trading Duran if the return is Kim and a prospect. Duran, Winck, Valdez for Kim and Musgrove I like Musgrave too but doesn’t he have a full NTC? |
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 27, 2023 20:56:50 GMT -5
Not a prediction, but rather what I'd like to see at this point:
Starters
C - Wong RH
1B - Casas LH
2B - Drury RH TRADE
SS - Story RH
3B - Devers LH
DH - Turner or Hoskins RH/RH Free Agent
LF - Yoshida LH
CF - Duran LH
RF - Abreu LH
OF - O'Neill RH
I'm not going to waste time speculating what Drury would cost in a trade, but I'd imagine a solid prospect or two. I'd hope Turner or Hoskins can be had on 1 or 2 year deals, Turner is a little better fit as he can fill in at 3B and 1B, but I think I prefer Hoskins bat by a little so this one is a toss up for me. With these RHH's and O'Neil, the lineup is more balanced. The defense is also better, with Yoshida and Devers as the weakest links, but I think Devers will be a little better with Story at SS for the whole year, and if O'Neill shows he can produce against RHP I think you can DH Yoshida 20 - 30 games.
Bench
OF - Refsnyder RH
IF - Reyes RH
C - McGuire LH
Refsnyder should bat far less against RHP this year, start him against a LH starter for one of the LHH outfielders, and pinch hit for him when RH reliever comes in the game. Bring him off the bench to hit a lefty reliever in games he doesn't start. I'd love to see Rafaela force his way into Reyes spot, but Reyes is fine for his role.
Rotation
SP - Sale LH
SP - Bello RH
SP - Paxton LH Free Agent
SP - Pivetta RH
SP - Crawford RH
SP - ?
I really like this group if you could tell me they would all make 30 starts, but Paxton and Sale are certain to miss time, so we need another starter. I don't know who that guy is, Montgomery seems like the perfect fit but I think he is going to get a stupid contract and I don't want to be the team that gives it to him, that goes double for Snell. Maybe Imanaga, but the bidding there could get ridiculous as well. There are more interesting names (Giolito, Stroman...) but they all come with questions, can Breslow find one of the guys who bounces back or steps up this year? Does he need to trade for a starter, and can it be done without putting to big a dent into the farm that Bloom built.
Bullpen
P - Houck RH
P - Whitlock RH
P - Mata RH
P - Bernandino LH
P - Slaten RH
P - Schreiber RH
P - Martin RH
C - Jansen RH
This unit could be a real strength, another LH reliever may be needed, but it is a potentially dominant group with real depth in AAA.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 27, 2023 22:23:21 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close. Duran is by no means an overpay for Kim. Kim is likely to produce more value in his one remaining year than Duran is for the next three or four. Kim has averaged 4 fWAR and 5.4 bWAR over the last two years. Duran has averaged 1 bWAR and 1 fWAR. And it’s not like Duran who is 27 was a top ten prospect. Fans always overvalue their own players. Duran is being overvalued here. |
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,578
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Dec 27, 2023 22:41:32 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close. Duran is by no means an overpay for Kim. Kim is likely to produce more value in his one remaining year than Duran is for the next three or four. Kim has averaged 4 fWAR and 5.4 bWAR over the last two years. Duran has averaged 1 bWAR and 1 fWAR. And it’s not like Duran who is 27 was a top ten prospect. Fans always overvalue their own players. Duran is being overvalued here. I agree. I just see downside everywhere for Duran this year, and his 90% upside being exactly what he was this year. I’d like the cash in and who knows, maybe Kim would be interested in an extension. He was also a big Pulled FB% guy relative to his RHB peers so I think that would help his cause here. |
|
chaimtime
Veteran
Posts: 1,017
Member is Online
|
Post by chaimtime on Dec 27, 2023 22:51:34 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close. Duran is by no means an overpay for Kim. Kim is likely to produce more value in his one remaining year than Duran is for the next three or four. Kim has averaged 4 fWAR and 5.4 bWAR over the last two years. Duran has averaged 1 bWAR and 1 fWAR. And it’s not like Duran who is 27 was a top ten prospect. Fans always overvalue their own players. Duran is being overvalued here. I dunno, he was 52nd on Fangraphs’ list when he graduated. It’s not like he hit the same way he did in 2022 and lucked his way to a high BABIP. He hit the ball harder, made more contact, swung at fewer balls, played much better defense. By every measure he got better. I think he’s shown he can live up to that ranking. He put up 2.5 WAR in 362 PAs, he was really good when he played! He has a lot of room to regress and still be valuable. Having a 2-win player making pre-arb money is really valuable for the team. The Red Sox could use a few of those guys, they shouldn’t be giving them away lightly. |
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Dec 27, 2023 23:28:25 GMT -5
The beat way for the Sox to get better is to ise our own guys and hope they progress. That said still need
RH hitter
Good defemsive 2B
300 innings of starting pitching.
Im not aure they can get all of this in FA and still be under the cap. Assuming that they even care anout this. None of us really know.
1 FA starter is probably a given.
1 FA RH hitter aswell.
My guess is that some of the moves are ones we havnt realy talked about.
If they do make trades it better be for controllable players.
Trades like duran fornkim just don’t make sence to me for a 2 time last place team. I agree the Sox are probably closer than that but still makes no sence. Gave up 6 years to biuld the farm please don’t throw that away to thrive to win 85-92 games.
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 27, 2023 23:47:24 GMT -5
Duran is already probably an overpay for Kim by himself, Duran and Crawford blows two of the team’s most valuable trade assets on a rental. I don’t think that’s maximizing the value of your assets, or even especially close. Duran is by no means an overpay for Kim. Kim is likely to produce more value in his one remaining year than Duran is for the next three or four. Kim has averaged 4 fWAR and 5.4 bWAR over the last two years. Duran has averaged 1 bWAR and 1 fWAR. And it’s not like Duran who is 27 was a top ten prospect. Fans always overvalue their own players. Duran is being overvalued here. He was still in his first 330 PAs as a major leaguer at the end of 2022!
I was down on Duran when it seemed like he'd never be able to play the field; but then he miraculously turned his defense around. Meanwhile, I never assumed the bat couldn't be adequate. He started out rough but the xwOBA increased 37 points from 2021 to 2022 and then it increased 37 points again from 2022 to 2023. If he regresses to an average bat with slightly subpar outfield defense and incredible speed, he's like a 2 WAR player at league minimum salary (with 5 years of control). That's what ZiPS sees (1.5 WAR in 453 PAs) and it's what Steamer would see if it didn't have an unrealistically low estimation of his baserunning value.
Duran was literally the Red Sox' best player on a rate basis last year. It's not like some sort of contorted homer logic to see him as a valuable asset.
|
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 28, 2023 0:26:34 GMT -5
I would think the Padres would need more than Duran to trade Kim. Maybe Crawford and Duran for Kim. Maybe. Could be wrong about this, but the Sox are in search of pitching, and there were a few posts about missing out on Lugo. Crawford has a better whip, a better K/9, the same HR/9 and FIP and so on. He's six years younger and has five years of control left. It's hard for me to see him being traded right now. |
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 28, 2023 0:44:06 GMT -5
Duran is by no means an overpay for Kim. Kim is likely to produce more value in his one remaining year than Duran is for the next three or four. Kim has averaged 4 fWAR and 5.4 bWAR over the last two years. Duran has averaged 1 bWAR and 1 fWAR. And it’s not like Duran who is 27 was a top ten prospect. Fans always overvalue their own players. Duran is being overvalued here. He was still in his first 330 PAs as a major leaguer at the end of 2022!
I was down on Duran when it seemed like he'd never be able to play the field; but then he miraculously turned his defense around. Meanwhile, I never assumed the bat couldn't be adequate. He started out rough but the xwOBA increased 37 points from 2021 to 2022 and then it increased 37 points again from 2022 to 2023. If he regresses to an average bat with slightly subpar outfield defense and incredible speed, he's like a 2 WAR player at league minimum salary (with 5 years of control). That's what ZiPS sees (1.5 WAR in 453 PAs) and it's what Steamer would see if it didn't have an unrealistically low estimation of his baserunning value.
Duran was literally the Red Sox' best player on a rate basis last year. It's not like some sort of contorted homer logic to see him as a valuable asset.
He is still a negative player on defense. He is projected to be a 1.5 WAR player. I’m not saying he doesn’t have value. But you are undervaluing Kim significantly. Kim is one of the best defenders in the game, plays a premium defensive position. And is coming off back to back seasons where his production was 5 bWAR. And he only has a 7 million dollar salary plus a $2 million buyout. He gets a qualifying offer next year. Maybe Duran has more value to the Red Sox than Kim (I don’t see how when he turns 28 during the season and therefore does not have the upside of a 23 year old). But there is NO way the Padres agree the Duran has more to them than Kim. |
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 28, 2023 0:46:38 GMT -5
I would think the Padres would need more than Duran to trade Kim. Maybe Crawford and Duran for Kim. Maybe. Could be wrong about this, but the Sox are in search of pitching, and there were a few posts about missing out on Lugo. Crawford has a better whip, a better K/9, the same HR/9 and FIP and so on. He's six years younger and has five years of control left. It's hard for me to see him being traded right now. More about what the padres would want than the Red Sox would part with. That was also responding to a post that had the Red Sox signing two other starters and Crawford out of the rotation. |
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Dec 28, 2023 2:02:22 GMT -5
He was still in his first 330 PAs as a major leaguer at the end of 2022!
I was down on Duran when it seemed like he'd never be able to play the field; but then he miraculously turned his defense around. Meanwhile, I never assumed the bat couldn't be adequate. He started out rough but the xwOBA increased 37 points from 2021 to 2022 and then it increased 37 points again from 2022 to 2023. If he regresses to an average bat with slightly subpar outfield defense and incredible speed, he's like a 2 WAR player at league minimum salary (with 5 years of control). That's what ZiPS sees (1.5 WAR in 453 PAs) and it's what Steamer would see if it didn't have an unrealistically low estimation of his baserunning value.
Duran was literally the Red Sox' best player on a rate basis last year. It's not like some sort of contorted homer logic to see him as a valuable asset.
He is still a negative player on defense. He is projected to be a 1.5 WAR player. I’m not saying he doesn’t have value. But you are undervaluing Kim significantly. Kim is one of the best defenders in the game, plays a premium defensive position. And is coming off back to back seasons where his production was 5 bWAR. And he only has a 7 million dollar salary plus a $2 million buyout. He gets a qualifying offer next year. Maybe Duran has more value to the Red Sox than Kim (I don’t see how when he turns 28 during the season and therefore does not have the upside of a 23 year old). But there is NO way the Padres agree the Duran has more to them than Kim. I think the point is why trade years of control for a 1 year rental. Its nit the direction the team should be going. |
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 28, 2023 2:31:18 GMT -5
He is still a negative player on defense. He is projected to be a 1.5 WAR player. I’m not saying he doesn’t have value. But you are undervaluing Kim significantly. Kim is one of the best defenders in the game, plays a premium defensive position. And is coming off back to back seasons where his production was 5 bWAR. And he only has a 7 million dollar salary plus a $2 million buyout. He gets a qualifying offer next year. Maybe Duran has more value to the Red Sox than Kim (I don’t see how when he turns 28 during the season and therefore does not have the upside of a 23 year old). But there is NO way the Padres agree the Duran has more to them than Kim. I think the point is why trade years of control for a 1 year rental. It’s nit the direction the team should be going. I would trade Duran for Kim. Red Sox would be much better in 2024 and that matters. I’m also relatively low on Duran compared to Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony among our cost controlled options. I think it’s a pretty fair trade given cost/control, though not sure whether either team would do it, depends on their individual Duran valuations I suppose. |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 28, 2023 11:32:34 GMT -5
I feel like the people who want to trade Duran were out of the country or somehow missed most of the 2023 season.
|
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 28, 2023 13:15:21 GMT -5
I love Duran, but I agree he’s being overvalued here. No way the Padres trade a 5+ WAR player for Duran straight up, even with Kim only have one more year of control. They are pitching starved and would absolutely want someone like Houck or Crawford in addition to Duran.
|
|
|
|
Post by dcb26 on Dec 28, 2023 13:18:11 GMT -5
Plus or better speed is really fun to watch but...not all that valuable of a tool. It tends to get overrated by fans because of the entertainment factor I think. I'd rather watch a dynamic athlete with elite speed than some station-to-station base clogger too, but it's not necessarily a great way to build a team.
Specific to Duran and the Sox, if things break right for Duran he profiles to have, what, average defense, above average hit, plus to double-plus speed? That's really valuable on a rookie contract but I'm willing to trade it for better tools in other areas, especially because "cost controlled league-average outfielder" looks like a relative area of surplus for the Sox.
|
|
|
