Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

Kim is only a 5+ WAR player if you buy DRS’s measurement that he’s a +18-run defender at second, third, and short, and if you buy his xwOBA overperformance from last year. Given that statcast has him at 20 OAA and 14 RAA for his career, and UZR has him at +14 runs for his career, I’m inclined to believe that DRS is too high on him. He also outperformed his xwOBA by a lot.

I think he’s closer to his fWAR than bWAR, which says he’s more of a 4-win player than a 5-6 WAR player. He just doesn’t hit the ball very hard at all. He pulls a lot of fly balls, walks a lot, and doesn’t strike out much, which is a valuable package in Fenway when you combine it with great defense in base running. But a year of that is not worth anything close to five years of Duran and Crawford combined.

Don't the Padres kind of need OF help right now? Their IF is pretty well stocked between Machado, Xander, cronenworth which cronenworth should be at 2nd not 1st. Sure they could keep Kim at 2nd and cronenworth at 1st I guess.

Not saying they'd take Kim for Duran but I do think they'd probably have plenty of interest in Duran to play LF for them them. Duran in LF in a large ballpark like petco would seemingly be a nice fit.

That's the point.  Crawford should absolutely be off limits, but Duran has surplus value in a Kim trade.  5 years of Duran is absolutely worth 1 year of Kim and a pitching prospect.

I think the really terrible September has clouded a lot of people’s judgement. This was a top-12ish team in baseball until Duran and Casas went down for the year. People act like they lost 100 games last year but for most of the year they were in the thick of the playoff race, and Jarren Duran was a big part of that.

I have nothing against Kim. He'd definitely help if he gets acquired but you'd think he's the second coming of Joe Morgan or Barry Larkin the way he is revered around here.

I'm sure he's good defensively. He's ok offensively, but these sky high defensive marks, I'm not sure I'm buying that heavily into. And that would impact the level of his greatness.

There seems to be a groundswell of let's trade Duran for Kim, although I'd think there already is a separate trade proposal thread if that's to be done.

The irony is I remember when Kim was available. If memory serves, the Padres got him for about 7.5 million per year which us hardly huge money. Maybe the Sox should have offered a big enough difference to entice him so we wouldn't have all these, if only we had Kim wishes. Ah well, water under the bridge.

I do get the "speed is only fun for entertainment purposes rather than actually winning games" line of thought.

I mean nobody cares how fast you can run back to the dugout if you cant get on base, which is the truth.

But I do think that Duran did a great job generating runs last year, runs that would not have scored if not for his speed, like the singles plus stolen bases or more memorably stretched doubles that got the extra 90 feet that enabled the run to eventually score.

I am not big into the baseclogger station to station wait for the 3 run HR thing. I like multiple ways to attack on offense.

Eventually if all the stars align and rather quickly within a few years the Sox could conceivably have an outfield containing Anthony, Rafaela, and Bleis and have no need for Duran, but that would be a timeframes that just about gets Duran to free agency.

Or more likely the Sox decide to sign Teoscar against the wishes of some of us and then Duran is either locked into CF or traded if Rafaela is viable enough offensively.

I think the latter scenario is more realistic or more immediate and potentially regretful given that I'd prefer Duran in LF than Teoscar and whether Rafaela can hack it enough offensively, excuse the pun, but yeah in that scenario, I understand the Duran/Kim desires but I dont like to see the risk of Teoscar and Rafaela in the lineup to make that happen. And I say this in acknowledgment of Abreu as I was impressed by his audition last year but am still not sure if he's more than a very useful 4th OF.

My feeling is that we'll see Duran remain this year and my biggest concern with him is the injury bug given how rough he is on his body.

Kim is a heck of a fit for the 2024 sox but I don't think he pushes them over the edge into competitor and he's an FA after this year. Therefore I don't think he fits in to the overall direction of the team right now. Which I guess is a long-winded way of me saying I don't think they should be trading for rentals right now.

If the Sox don't plan to contend next year, I agree. If they plan to make other moves, and/or if they would try to extend him, I definitely think he's worth acquiring. I'm also very skeptical that the Padres would have any desire to trade him, however.

My problem with this thinking: Kim's a great second baseman, but he's on an expiring contract. You can extend him as the Dodgers did with Glasnow.

But, in 2025, weren't our plans to have Mayer as SS and Story at 2nd?

If we extend Kim, what's the new plan?

Here is my projection for how the red sox opening day lineup. this isn’t what i would necessarily do but what i think happens by trying my best to read the tea leaves and available reporting.

Masataka yoshida DH
Rafael Devers 3B
Teoscar Hernandez LF
Triston Casas 1B
Trevor Story SS
Wilyer Abreu RF
Tyler O’Neill CF
Brendan Rodgers 2B
Connor Wong C

The outfield defense and depth concerns me a bit here but i think they would be a very good offense. I think Duran is the headliner for a controllable starting pitcher in this scenario and rafaela is the first guy called up for an injury or when he’s ready in June if one of those guys is struggling.

Bench:
Pablo reyes
Reese Mcguire
Rob Refsnyder
Bobby Dalbec

I think this is pretty straight forward, if they make a depth move i think dalbec is the first to go down among these players.

Rotation:
Brayan Bello
Chris sale
Lucas Giolito
Edward Cabrera
Nick Pivetta

i could also see paxton slotting in as well, but think they stay under the tax and don’t think they could add giolito, teo, and paxton and stay under. I think Imanaga would also slot in to the Giolito tier and i have duran as the headliner for cabrera.

Bullpen:
Wandy Peralta
Kutter Crawford
Garrett Whitlock
Robert Stephenson
Chris Martin
Justin Slaten
Brennan Bernardino
Tanner Houck

This is a fascinating part of the roster. Here i think Kenley gets traded to a contender for further pitching depth similar to verdugo. Chris Martin closes most nights with houck others. I think Winckowski and schreiber are optioned and are the first to come up. I also think there’s a non-zero chance one (or 2) of houck/whitlock/kutter start the year in worcester as the 6th starter and one of kelly/campbell/mata wins the job out of spring.


Overall i like this team more than i would have thought going through this. The bullpen has a chance to be very good and i think they would hit really well. As last year, it would come down to the rotations health and step forwards from Giolito/cabrera/bello and one of houck/crawford/whitlock.

Trade Pivetta and Yorke for Kim. Then extend Kim at a friendly deal or offer QO

Sign Hernandez for LF 3 years with at the worst $5 million buyout of year 4

Trade Duran/Houck/Cespedes/Dalbec for Luzardo

Sign Giolito to a one or 2 year deal

Sign Hicks to a 2 year deal

Luzardo
Bello
Sale
Giolito
Crawford

Yoshida DH
Devers 3B
Hernandez LF
Casas 1B
O’Neil RF
Kim 2B
Story SS
Abreu/Rafaela CF
Wong C

Deep and talented bullpen

All FA deals fall off the books with story/Yoshida or sooner

Oh no I don’t see him as a throw in. I see him as a legit prospect the Marlins would be very interested in.

Dalbec is the productive throw in as I can see mild appeal for him but for the wellness of his career he needs new scenery

To add. I think that’s a legit offer the marlins might consider and allow us to keep Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Rafaela, Bleis