Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

Just adding up the totals on the fangraphs depth charts page, the WAR projection for Red Sox pitchers is now tied with the Mariners for the second highest in the AL. Twins are first.

The bullpen should be really good next year but the rotation has a very wide range of outcomes. I could see it being bottom 5, top 5, or anywhere in between. They basically have five guys I’d be comfortable with as a number 3 with upside, so it makes sense.

I do think Pivetta and Crawford are getting slept on. They both have very analytically appealing pitch mixes, and they were both solidly above average when they were on the mound. Out of the 102 pitchers who threw 120+ innings, Crawford was 6th in xERA, Pivetta 32nd. If you’re into pitch modeling, Pivetta was 6th for Stuff+ with Crawford 24th. They do well in a lot of underlying metrics—K-BB%, chase rates, whiff rates. Crawford, interestingly, was 13th in whiff rate in the zone, but in the bottom 25 for out-of-zone whiff rate. If they weren’t already on the team they’d be near the top of my list of cheap starters to target.

I think they’re more than fine as 4/5 starters, I don’t think it’s a disaster if they start the year in the rotation. You can make a good case that they were both better than Bello last year. Sale is still by far the biggest question mark in the rotation. If he pitches 50 innings, they need some luck elsewhere. If Giolito stinks on top of that, it’s probably a bad rotation. But if Sale makes 25 starts, Giolito gives them 180 innings of 4ish ERA pitching, Bello adds a pitch to get lefties out, and Crawford and Pivetta build off last year, it looks like a playoff-caliber rotation.

That’s a lot of ifs, though, and even if there’s a good chance any one of them happens, it’s probably unrealistic to expect all of them. Adding a guy who can bump everyone down a spot would really solidify things, though. If Breslow can pull that off and add another bat, I’d be satisfied. An infielder would be a big help, but I have a feeling they’ll go with what they have and reevaluate at the deadline.

Castellanos is a horrible contract, he’s a DH only making $20m a year who is probably just an average hitter now. Even if the Phillies ate the entire contract I don’t think I’d want him. Maybe for something similar to the Hosmer deal where they’d take a guy we’d cut from the 40 anyways and paid the whole thing so we could cut him for nothing? Even then it’s not that appealing

I put it that way, because DD seemed motivated to move Castellanos and often seems motivated to stick it to the Sox. When your motivation is driven by motives other than perhaps what is best for the team, it can lead to mistakes, and sometimes you can take advantage of that. While DD’s pursuit of Song last year wasn’t necessarily a risk or mistake, it also didn’t pan out and I think part of the motivation there was to stick it to the Sox. I agree that Castellanos is not a first priority move for the Sox (or an option I necessarily particularly want), but given the Sox are pursuing right-handed power with maybe limited options, and probably dropping close to $20M a year to do so, he at least seemed a candidate. I’m Just looking at all angles to add to the team, and there are worse right-handed bats than Castellanos. I personally think WAR can be overemphasized, and I don’t think Castellanos is a replacement player, which WAR might suggest, esp if he part of a DH rotation.

I guess if the Twins ate 75% of his deal I would take him for almost nothing in return

I honestly would rather they just hang on to sale.

If they go something like
C Wong
1b Casas
2b Grissom
SS Story
3B Devers
LF Teoscar
CF Duran
RF O’Neill
DH Masa

And start:
Bello
Montgomery
Giolito
Crawford
Pivetta

I’d say they are in business. That is better than they’ve been in a few years, and they have a pretty young, controlled lineup.

I think there is probably some mystery as to what position we're actually going to let Grissom play

Why put this out there. Just setting yourself for another Throttlegate if you don't find a good deal