Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

Oh I don’t dispute that it makes some sense for Boston to explore it. If 16 is a lot for us, it probably isn’t cheap to another team either, even in true contention. I might just prefer to sign Hicks or Stephenson than spend assets on a more expensive reliever. Granted, Kenley is a tier above those arms.

For sure. The hope would be a contending team would be okay with spending the few extra dollars for the upgrade. Over 162 the difference between kenley and one of those guys is probably minimal, but the playoffs are a different animal and that minor upgrade can be worth it then compared to a team like the red sox just trying to get there in the first place. But i agree with your overall point, i don’t think it’s easy to trade him and the market for him might not be much

You’re right, he’s just not included when you search the 2024 FGDC projections by team. Wonder what the disconnect is there.

You’re right on the main point that this is not a team to give up a huge prospect package to improve. I do think there’s room to get creative, though. That’s good, because I think it’s really important that the team is at least close to a playoff spot this year.

I posted something in the trade proposal thread about some Luis Castillo rumors I’ve seen floating around. They need outfielders, and they need to cut salary. I think that’s the sort of move where Duran makes sense as a centerpiece—a quality veteran on a reasonable contract that his team might not be able to afford, rather than a young stud making pre-FA money. Not to veer too far into trade speculation, but their bullpen looks shallow and they’ve got Andrés Muñoz penciled in as their closer, who, while filthy, has blown 8 of his 26 save opportunities in his career. Maybe they’d have some interest in a Certified Proven Closer on a moderately subsidized salary...

Edit: just to loop it back around to your point, I think Duran developing into a viable 2+ WAR player is kind of an unexpected boon for the long term plans, so I’m fine with using him in a non-rental trade. Castillo is a good example of a veteran that would command a prospect package and long-term salary that would be easier for the Red Sox to withstand than most teams and wouldn’t eat up all of their prospect capital or long-term payroll flexibility.

Vs. LHB: .271/.356/.502, .366 wOBA
Vs. RHB: .236/.297/.325, .277 wOBA

Thought this was interesting: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/where-can-the-marlins-look-for-shortstop-help.html

If the Marlins are indeed looking for a long term answer @ SS, it would make a lot of sense they’d be asking for Mayer in a deal for Luzardo.

He is not.

2022: .259/.376/.400, .338 wOBA
2021: .231/.309/.331, .282 wOBA

Note much smaller sample sizes in prior seasons.

Luzardo is good, maybe even great if he can stay healthy but I wouldn't trade 6+ years of Mayer for 3 of Luzardo. I do have a bad feeling we are going to see a trade for a pitcher that is going to hurt the farm more than I would like to see though.

As noted by others, Mayer is no guaranteed stud especially seeing his injury prone nature the past couple of seasons. I’ll take a frontline SP w/ 3+ years of control over a highly ranked AA position prospect any day of the week.

Edit: with the exception of Teel seeing catchers like him don’t grow on trees.

For that matter, the old man of the starting rotation, at least for the moment, is Nick Pivetta.

One has to think that a big trade is coming. Castillo's signing puts the 40 man at 40 and Giotillo is official yet.