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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 1, 2024 11:46:21 GMT -5
Is he gonna give you another 44 innings for 16 million , it’s dumb use of your finances , if this was Jansen from years back in his dodgers days yes but that’s not this guy anymore , he’s mehhhh, use the money in other ways if 225 is the max So you answered your own question. It's financial. The big money is for proven track record so you're not playing closer roulette the way they were prior to Kenley's arrival when Cora never seemed to know from night to night who is closer was and the performances werent exactly great either. Hansel Robles was closing at one point. Barnes was until he suddenly was awful. Workman was good for a year until suddenly he wasnt. You can certainly get more efficient. Just never have a closer with a well established track record on the wromg side of free agency. Frankly, I don't know why it's so darn imperative to dump Kenley to stay under the luxury tax limit. I see no real reason why a franchise worth the value it's worth, charging the highest ticket prices in baseball should be so hell bent against being over the tax threshold for a year or two. Again I'm hardly attached to Kenley, but this need to be suddenly under the limit all seasons if that is the case, even to the point they eschew free agency to improve the pitching so they can trade a needed prospect like Mayer doesn't make a ton of sense to me. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 1, 2024 11:48:07 GMT -5
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Jan 1, 2024 11:51:33 GMT -5
I’m also saying he’s not good enough anymore for 16 million , just my personal opinion , I think he’s an average reliever
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Post by Guidas on Jan 1, 2024 12:02:26 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do if we're going by projections:
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Post by wanderingdude on Jan 1, 2024 12:19:51 GMT -5
Kenley is obviously a very good closer and wouldn’t be necessarily easy to replace, but if ownership is hell bent on putting restrictions on going into the luxury tax it just feels like we could use that 16 million more effectively. I would rather that money go to a starter or middle of the order bat if we can’t do both.
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Post by wanderingdude on Jan 1, 2024 12:23:05 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do if we're going by projections: Red sox are 17th in batting and 12th in pitching which is interesting. |
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Post by bishop on Jan 1, 2024 12:47:34 GMT -5
New year’s update of my 2024 roster prediction with about half the offseason remaining. Once again, many thanks in advance for tearing this to shreds. Red Sox 2024 RosterRotationJordan Montgomery* (acquired via FA) +$25m AAV Bello Lucas Giolito (acquired via FA) +19m AAV Pivetta Crawford Houck (40 - WooSox) Whitlock (40 - Woo) Winckowski (40 - Woo) Criswell (40 - Woo) Murphy* (40 - Woo) Walter* (40 - Woo) Gonzalez (40 - Sea Dogs) Perales (40 - Drive) BullpenJosh Hader* (acquired via FA) +$18.3m AAV Jansen Martin Robert Stephenson (acquired via FA) +$8m AAV Schreiber Bernardino* Mata Justin Slaten (acquired via Rule 5 trade) Jacques* (40 - Woo) Kelly (40 - Woo) Isaiah Campbell (acquired from SEA for Luis Urias) (40 - Woo) Greg Weissert (acquired from MFY in Verdugo trade) (40 - Woo) ... In the rotation, I’m embracing the old saw that you can never have too much starting pitching. What I don’t embrace is compromising the development of guys like Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski by shoehorning them into bullpen roles, making it near impossible to stretch them back out in an emergency. Instead of kicking them to the bullpen while promising them a starting slot “someday,” stretch them all out in Worcester to start the season, where they can all work on whatever they need to fix to become fully fledged starters (e.g. Houck get lefties out, Whitlock prove his durability). As we all know, injuries happen, especially to SPs, so the Worcester rotation of Houck, Whit, Winck, Murphy, Walter, Criswell and Fitts can compete to be the first “next man up,” probably by Mother’s Day (indeed, it’s easy to imagine that one of them might be needed even before camp breaks). They will also be competing to replace Giolito and Pivetta in the 2025 rotation. Do I expect the Sox to start the year with Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski in the Worcester rotation? New regime, new thinking? Maybe “expect” is too strong a word. Either way, I’d like to see promising arms like theirs developed differently than the current MO of “you can get MLB hitters out but only a few at a time, so let’s throw a year-plus of your starting progress out the window and put you in the MLB bullpen.” I get that philosophy for a clear contender but not for a two-time-defending last-place team. If you’ve got this many homegrown SP candidates, you shouldn’t waste them. And who knows? Maybe a couple of them prove that they really don’t belong in a MLB rotation — I’d rather find that out by giving them all a fair shot at starting. Guys who fail the WooSox starter test can join the BOS bullpen in the second half. In the bullpen, you start with a rock-solid back end of Hader, Jansen, Martin, and Stephenson and add Schreiber, Bernardino, Mata and Slaten. In the Worcester bullpen, you’ve got Weissert, Jacques, Campbell, and Kelly, all of whom have had tastes of the Show (plus Llovera and Weiss, if they clear waivers), plus Hagenman, Guerrero, and Benitez in non-roster reserve. Love the summary, disagree a bit here. I don't know his eventual upside but as EL Pitcher of the Year it would be a waste to start Fitts in Portland IMO. I get wanting to stretch Winc, Houck, and Whitlock all out in a vacuum but Winc's 26 and the other two are 28, putting at least one of the latter in the MLB bullpen in that multi inning role is what I'd do, should be easy to find 100 innings there. Also won't be upset with a short term Stephenson deal (especially if Kenley is moved), but would probably prefer to see guys like Weissert and Campbell get a chance to stick. "Bridge year" is a loaded term in these parts, but just like we're committed to giving Grissom rope to improve at 2B so we have a good, cheap player in like 2025-2028 I'd rather try and find a bullpen piece or two internally as well so we're not chasing RP's with $$$ or prospects in a couple offseasons and can focus on getting another top end SP or filling holes if some of the hitting prospects we love don't pan out or take a little longer to develop. |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jan 1, 2024 12:53:40 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do if we're going by projections: Red sox are 17th in batting and 12th in pitching which is interesting. I've been trying to sound the alarm that the offensive is likely just not good enough if we stand pat. I've been banging pots and pans and sending signal flares up into the sky in the shape of Teoscar Hernandez (or whoever - there might be better options on the trade market). |
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Jan 1, 2024 13:02:08 GMT -5
Red sox are 17th in batting and 12th in pitching which is interesting. I've been trying to sound the alarm that the offensive is likely just not good enough if we stand pat. I've been banging pots and pans and sending signal flares up into the sky in the shape of Teoscar Hernandez (or whoever - there might be better options on the trade market). Do we know if Tampa's WAR total includes Wander? |
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Post by wanderingdude on Jan 1, 2024 13:06:42 GMT -5
I've been trying to sound the alarm that the offensive is likely just not good enough if we stand pat. I've been banging pots and pans and sending signal flares up into the sky in the shape of Teoscar Hernandez (or whoever - there might be better options on the trade market). Do we know if Tampa's WAR total includes Wander? I think stats said they hedged it by only including half a season worth of PA’s instead of a full one. |
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Post by kwodes on Jan 1, 2024 13:11:24 GMT -5
Do we know if Tampa's WAR total includes Wander? I think stats said they hedged it by only including half a season worth of PA’s instead of a full one. Tampa is the one team in for a pretty big decline this year. They traded Glasnow, Franco is most likely done, McClanahan, springs, Rasmussen (are there more?) are all out this year. |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jan 1, 2024 13:19:55 GMT -5
I think what I struggled to articulate a few days ago is that I think Teoscar Hernandez, while not a great player, raises the floor of the offense considerably. I have more faith in Duran to build on his 2023 season, but while Abreu and Rafaela are exciting players, I think we need to be prepared for them to fail and see how they adjust and bounce before relying on them as contributors to the 2024 team. I think the opinions here (perhaps more so on social media than here) are pretty polarized in the sense that some project Rafaela as a 2+ WAR player (bullish), and some want to see him get another half season in AAA before recalling him (bearish). You can convince me that Rafaela deserves a proper shot, but I think some people don't realize just how low the floor is for Abreu. To rely on all 3 to perform consistently as valuable contributors is an incredibly precarious situation.
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Post by wanderingdude on Jan 1, 2024 13:23:20 GMT -5
Red sox are 17th in batting and 12th in pitching which is interesting. I've been trying to sound the alarm that the offensive is likely just not good enough if we stand pat. I've been banging pots and pans and sending signal flares up into the sky in the shape of Teoscar Hernandez (or whoever - there might be better options on the trade market). Very much agreed and it’s why i’m so pro signing teoscar hernandez. Finished 11th last year in runs and that included turner and duvall. You can hope tyler o’neill replaces duvall’s production but you’re also relying on wilyer to replicate verdugo. They were also pretty bad against lefties last year and that included turners .900 ops against them. Need some thunder from the right side in that lineup desperately, and someone capable of hitting between casas and devers. |
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Post by asm19 on Jan 1, 2024 13:28:11 GMT -5
Red sox are 17th in batting and 12th in pitching which is interesting. I've been trying to sound the alarm that the offensive is likely just not good enough if we stand pat. I've been banging pots and pans and sending signal flares up into the sky in the shape of Teoscar Hernandez (or whoever - there might be better options on the trade market). The WAR projections Stats is referencing I believe is here: www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3Sox position players projected WAR: Devers - 4.7 Casas - 3.0 Grissom(!) - 2.3 Yoshida - 1.9 O’Neill - 1.7 Story - 1.7 Duran - 1.3 Abreu - 1.3 McGuire - .8 WAR and Wong - .1 WAR I suppose from the team’s POV, Story is finally healthy, Duran and Abreu they seem to really believe in, and O’Neill maybe you get a bounce back from? But that’s a lot of hoping for things to go right. Is there any additional option out there at catcher outside of a Wong breakout or waiting for Kyle Teel? The team is projected to be third worst at that position… |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 1, 2024 13:43:40 GMT -5
There is a real disconnect between Fangraphs and BR when it comes to Wong. BR had him at 2.2 WAR last year while Fangraphs calculated it at .5. Now they have him at .1? My own take is that he's very athletic and effective. I suppose people might attribute that to the difference in the way the two sites figure defensive value. Is that relevant for a catcher? Is there something amiss in outs above avg behind the plate? Something's going on here... |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 1, 2024 13:50:05 GMT -5
Baseball Reference does not include pitch framing, where Wong rates miserably
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Post by rhswanzey on Jan 1, 2024 13:51:13 GMT -5
Kenley is obviously a very good closer and wouldn’t be necessarily easy to replace, but if ownership is hell bent on putting restrictions on going into the luxury tax it just feels like we could use that 16 million more effectively. I would rather that money go to a starter or middle of the order bat if we can’t do both. Likely a better market for Kenley (and Martin) at the deadline, as long as each is healthy. Payroll dollars saved aren’t clearly going to get reinvested into new players and at this point everyone needs to be putting tremendous pressure on the ownership group about it imo. The “trade Kenley and replace him with less expensive pitcher X” type takes over the years usually avoid the obvious question: if that sounds like a good idea for Boston, why wouldn’t the acquiring team simply go out and sign less expensive pitcher X? |
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Post by wanderingdude on Jan 1, 2024 13:57:01 GMT -5
Kenley is obviously a very good closer and wouldn’t be necessarily easy to replace, but if ownership is hell bent on putting restrictions on going into the luxury tax it just feels like we could use that 16 million more effectively. I would rather that money go to a starter or middle of the order bat if we can’t do both. Likely a better market for Kenley (and Martin) at the deadline, as long as each is healthy. Payroll dollars saved aren’t clearly going to get reinvested into new players and at this point everyone needs to be putting tremendous pressure on the ownership group about it imo. The “trade Kenley and replace him with less expensive pitcher X” type takes over the years usually avoid the obvious question: if that sounds like a good idea for Boston, why wouldn’t the acquiring team simply go out and sign less expensive pitcher X? Because boston is at a different point in their rebuild/contention window than other teams and have other needs. Paying a closer 16 million when your roster is otherwise complete is a fine idea. Doing it when your a middle of the road team feels like mismanaging resources. Agreed on putting pressure on ownership, but if they have a set budget trading kenley does free up some space. In a perfect world they just go over the tax and sign good players, but that’s obviously not going to happen. But if the budget is 225 million again, i don’t think they’re gonna trade kenley and just pocket the money, it would ideally go to someone else. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 1, 2024 14:17:44 GMT -5
New year’s update of my 2024 roster prediction with about half the offseason remaining. Once again, many thanks in advance for tearing this to shreds. Red Sox 2024 RosterRotationJordan Montgomery* (acquired via FA) +$25m AAV Bello Lucas Giolito (acquired via FA) +19m AAV Pivetta Crawford Houck (40 - WooSox) Whitlock (40 - Woo) Winckowski (40 - Woo) Criswell (40 - Woo) Murphy* (40 - Woo) Walter* (40 - Woo) Gonzalez (40 - Sea Dogs) Perales (40 - Drive) BullpenJosh Hader* (acquired via FA) +$18.3m AAV Jansen Martin Robert Stephenson (acquired via FA) +$8m AAV Schreiber Bernardino* Mata Justin Slaten (acquired via Rule 5 trade) Jacques* (40 - Woo) Kelly (40 - Woo) Isaiah Campbell (acquired from SEA for Luis Urias) (40 - Woo) Greg Weissert (acquired from MFY in Verdugo trade) (40 - Woo) ... In the rotation, I’m embracing the old saw that you can never have too much starting pitching. What I don’t embrace is compromising the development of guys like Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski by shoehorning them into bullpen roles, making it near impossible to stretch them back out in an emergency. Instead of kicking them to the bullpen while promising them a starting slot “someday,” stretch them all out in Worcester to start the season, where they can all work on whatever they need to fix to become fully fledged starters (e.g. Houck get lefties out, Whitlock prove his durability). As we all know, injuries happen, especially to SPs, so the Worcester rotation of Houck, Whit, Winck, Murphy, Walter, Criswell and Fitts can compete to be the first “next man up,” probably by Mother’s Day (indeed, it’s easy to imagine that one of them might be needed even before camp breaks). They will also be competing to replace Giolito and Pivetta in the 2025 rotation. Do I expect the Sox to start the year with Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski in the Worcester rotation? New regime, new thinking? Maybe “expect” is too strong a word. Either way, I’d like to see promising arms like theirs developed differently than the current MO of “you can get MLB hitters out but only a few at a time, so let’s throw a year-plus of your starting progress out the window and put you in the MLB bullpen.” I get that philosophy for a clear contender but not for a two-time-defending last-place team. If you’ve got this many homegrown SP candidates, you shouldn’t waste them. And who knows? Maybe a couple of them prove that they really don’t belong in a MLB rotation — I’d rather find that out by giving them all a fair shot at starting. Guys who fail the WooSox starter test can join the BOS bullpen in the second half. In the bullpen, you start with a rock-solid back end of Hader, Jansen, Martin, and Stephenson and add Schreiber, Bernardino, Mata and Slaten. In the Worcester bullpen, you’ve got Weissert, Jacques, Campbell, and Kelly, all of whom have had tastes of the Show (plus Llovera and Weiss, if they clear waivers), plus Hagenman, Guerrero, and Benitez in non-roster reserve. Love the summary, disagree a bit here. I don't know his eventual upside but as EL Pitcher of the Year it would be a waste to start Fitts in Portland IMO. I get wanting to stretch Winc, Houck, and Whitlock all out in a vacuum but Winc's 26 and the other two are 28, putting at least one of the latter in the MLB bullpen in that multi inning role is what I'd do, should be easy to find 100 innings there. Also won't be upset with a short term Stephenson deal (especially if Kenley is moved), but would probably prefer to see guys like Weissert and Campbell get a chance to stick. "Bridge year" is a loaded term in these parts, but just like we're committed to giving Grissom rope to improve at 2B so we have a good, cheap player in like 2025-2028 I'd rather try and find a bullpen piece or two internally as well so we're not chasing RP's with $$$ or prospects in a couple offseasons and can focus on getting another top end SP or filling holes if some of the hitting prospects we love don't pan out or take a little longer to develop. The overall idea with the Worcester rotation is that by the end of 2024 we should know which of these guys is a legit rotation piece for 2025 in Boston. If just one pans out, now you’ve got Bello, Crawford, and one more cheap starter under control for multiple years. If two pan out, that’s four homegrown guys and suddenly we’re the Mariners. The guys who aren’t starters should be solid bullpen pieces going forward. |
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Post by asm19 on Jan 1, 2024 14:46:28 GMT -5
Baseball Reference does not include pitch framing, where Wong rates miserably It was Wong’s first full season in the majors last year - and included a stretch in the summer where McGuire was hurt and Wong basically was catching 95% of the time - so I’m unsure how to evaluate him. He can throw out runners, is fast and has a little bit of pop. But there’s some concerning/weird stats with him, from the Fangraphs .1 WAR projection to him being horrendous vs lefties in his MLB career so far. 22 wRC+ vs lefties in 132 career PA 98 wRC+ vs righties 341 career PA You’d think less extreme performance vs lefties plus some modest development in pitch framing/game calling would be doable in year 2… right? |
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Post by Guidas on Jan 1, 2024 15:04:11 GMT -5
Baseball Reference does not include pitch framing, where Wong rates miserably It was Wong’s first full season in the majors last year - and included a stretch in the summer where McGuire was hurt and Wong basically was catching 95% of the time - so I’m unsure how to evaluate him. He can throw out runners, is fast and has a little bit of pop. But there’s some concerning/weird stats with him, from the Fangraphs .1 WAR projection to him being horrendous vs lefties in his MLB career so far. 22 wRC+ vs lefties in 132 career PA 98 wRC+ vs righties 341 career PA You’d think less extreme performance vs lefties plus some modest development in pitch framing/game calling would be doable in year 2… right? If MLB/Rob Manfred would just get over themselves and give us RoboUmps we can get rid of pitch-framing (i.e. umpire-bias inaccuracy. ProTip - if the catcher moves the glove into the zone after receiving the ball it was not a strike). Then teams can expanding development of catchers who can receive the ball, call the game (although that should really be the domain of the starters at the very least) and throw out runners. A likely benefit would be more catchers with higher batting averages, too, as "fooling the umpire on where the ball hit the mitt" no longer would be part of a necessary skill set. |
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Post by bishop on Jan 1, 2024 15:10:57 GMT -5
The overall idea with the Worcester rotation is that by the end of 2024 we should know which of these guys is a legit rotation piece for 2025 in Boston. If just one pans out, now you’ve got Bello, Crawford, and one more cheap starter under control for multiple years. If two pan out, that’s four homegrown guys and suddenly we’re the Mariners. The guys who aren’t starters should be solid bullpen pieces going forward. Fitts is the last one I'd take to make a spot start in April or open the season as starter #5, but despite his limited track record I think Fitts has the highest chance to be that cheap mid/backend starter in that 2025 on window. Not like I've watched him much but he has a good build, sounds like a good fastball that should let him go deep in games, and he's working on tweaking secondaries that will determine if he's a starter or ends up in that multi inning bucket down the road. He's done enough in AA I'd like to see him get a chance to go vs AAA hitters, leaving him in a league he has already outperformed instead of challenging him would seem too cute. Shoot, Houck averaged over 5 IP in 21 starts last year and has pitched 250 in MLB, if we don't sign another starter and just want to roll with him as starter 5(/6) I don't think he really needs to be stretched out past ST and I don't know how much we'd learn from him throwing vs AAA hitters at this point. (Plus if we're looking for a cheap multiyear starter he's multiple years closer to FA already than Fitts or Winc are.) Winc seems like a much more plausible AAA starting guy, Houck is a proven MLB pitcher. |
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Post by Guidas on Jan 1, 2024 15:13:26 GMT -5
I've been trying to sound the alarm that the offensive is likely just not good enough if we stand pat. I've been banging pots and pans and sending signal flares up into the sky in the shape of Teoscar Hernandez (or whoever - there might be better options on the trade market). The WAR projections Stats is referencing I believe is here: www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3Sox position players projected WAR: Devers - 4.7 Casas - 3.0 Grissom(!) - 2.3 Yoshida - 1.9 O’Neill - 1.7 Story - 1.7 Duran - 1.3 Abreu - 1.3 McGuire - .8 WAR and Wong - .1 WAR I suppose from the team’s POV, Story is finally healthy, Duran and Abreu they seem to really believe in, and O’Neill maybe you get a bounce back from? But that’s a lot of hoping for things to go right. Is there any additional option out there at catcher outside of a Wong breakout or waiting for Kyle Teel? The team is projected to be third worst at that position… If they can strict platoon O'Neill with someone who can credibly hit righties (Abreu), they could change one OF spot from a 1.7 WAR to a 3.5 WAR or better. Even if Duran stays in C, a platoon of the other two opens up the OF for a legit 3.0 or better WAR player via trade, free agency or Magic (i.e moving Devers to left and signing Chapman - which has less than a 1% chance of happening). Do that and you've picked up 5.0 or more WAR on the offensive side. |
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 1, 2024 15:42:44 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do if we're going by projections: worth mentioning that Giolito isn’t included here because the deal isn’t official yet. FG has the rotation as Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/TBD right now. |
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Post by classylefthander on Jan 1, 2024 16:00:57 GMT -5
Still a ton of work to do if we're going by projections: In the AL only Sox are tenth in total WAR, ranking tenth in positional player and fifth in pitching. In projected wOBA, they are tied for third with TEX behind HOU and NYY. It’s the defensive component that weighs them down, with Wong, Duran, Devers, Story (?!) and Grissom as the main culprits. Wong, Duran and Story seem too low. |
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