Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

New year’s update of my 2024 roster prediction with about half the offseason remaining. Once again, many thanks in advance for tearing this to shreds.

Red Sox 2024 Roster

Rotation
Jordan Montgomery* (acquired via FA) +$25m AAV
Bello
Lucas Giolito (acquired via FA) +19m AAV
Pivetta
Crawford

Houck (40 - WooSox)
Whitlock (40 - Woo)
Winckowski (40 - Woo)
Criswell (40 - Woo)
Murphy* (40 - Woo)
Walter* (40 - Woo)
Gonzalez (40 - Sea Dogs)
Perales (40 - Drive)

Bullpen
Josh Hader* (acquired via FA) +$18.3m AAV
Jansen
Martin
Robert Stephenson (acquired via FA) +$8m AAV
Schreiber
Bernardino*
Mata
Justin Slaten (acquired via Rule 5 trade)

Jacques* (40 - Woo)
Kelly (40 - Woo)
Isaiah Campbell (acquired from SEA for Luis Urias) (40 - Woo)
Greg Weissert (acquired from MFY in Verdugo trade) (40 - Woo)

Batters
C/2B - Wong
1B - Casas*
2B/LF - Vaughn Grissom (acquired from ATL for Chris Sale) -10m AAV
3B - Devers*
SS/2B - Story
CF/LF - Duran*
RF/CF - Abreu*
DH/LF - Yoshida*
RF/DH - O’Neill (acquired from STL for Victor Santos and Nick Robertson)

Reserves
C - McGuire*
2B - Valdez*
LF/RF - Refsnyder
1B/RF/LF - Garrett Cooper (acquired via FA) +$3m AAV
SS/2B/CF - Hamilton* (40 - Woo)
CF/SS/2B - Rafaela (40 - Woo)

Notes
Verdugone, Giolito benevenuto, O’Neill BSOHL, Grissom for Sale, and plenty of talent still available. It might take until the midnight hour to land the Boras client but I still like our chances with Montgomery, to consume innings alongside Giolito. I also like the idea of building a deep end in the bullpen by adding top-flight arms in Hader and Stephenson, who will share the load with Jansen and Martin to keep all of them fresh all season. In the rotation, I’m embracing the old saw that you can never have too much starting pitching. What I don’t embrace is compromising the development of guys like Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski by shoehorning them into bullpen roles, making it near impossible to stretch them back out in an emergency. Instead of kicking them to the bullpen while promising them a starting slot “someday,” stretch them all out in Worcester to start the season, where they can all work on whatever they need to fix to become fully fledged starters (e.g. Houck get lefties out, Whitlock prove his durability). As we all know, injuries happen, especially to SPs, so the Worcester rotation of Houck, Whit, Winck, Murphy, Walter, Criswell and Fitts can compete to be the first “next man up,” probably by Mother’s Day (indeed, it’s easy to imagine that one of them might be needed even before camp breaks). They will also be competing to replace Giolito and Pivetta in the 2025 rotation. Do I expect the Sox to start the year with Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski in the Worcester rotation? New regime, new thinking? Maybe “expect” is too strong a word. Either way, I’d like to see promising arms like theirs developed differently than the current MO of “you can get MLB hitters out but only a few at a time, so let’s throw a year-plus of your starting progress out the window and put you in the MLB bullpen.” I get that philosophy for a clear contender but not for a two-time-defending last-place team. If you’ve got this many homegrown SP candidates, you shouldn’t waste them. And who knows? Maybe a couple of them prove that they really don’t belong in a MLB rotation — I’d rather find that out by giving them all a fair shot at starting. Guys who fail the WooSox starter test can join the BOS bullpen in the second half.

In the bullpen, you start with a rock-solid back end of Hader, Jansen, Martin, and Stephenson and add Schreiber, Bernardino, Mata and Slaten. In the Worcester bullpen, you’ve got Weissert, Jacques, Campbell, and Kelly, all of whom have had tastes of the Show (plus Llovera and Weiss, if they clear waivers), plus Hagenman, Guerrero, and Benitez in non-roster reserve.

Much drama has already played out on the position player side, after the Grissom, Verdugo and O’Neill trades. Otherwise, the only other new outside addition I have is LHP mashing, slick-fielding 1B (and emergency OF) Cooper, an upgrade on Dalbec (who is DFAed or moved in this scenario - hardly knew ye). Rafaela starts the year in Worcester, working on his pitch recognition.

Lineups

[vs. RHP]
CF Duran*
DH Yoshida*
3B Devers*
LF O’Neill
1B Casas*
SS Story
RF Abreu*
2B Valdez*
C McGuire*

[vs. LHP]
CF Duran* (maybe Rafaela in the second half?)
LF Refsnyder
3B Devers*
RF O’Neill
1B Casas*
SS Story
DH Yoshida*
2B Grissom
C Wong

Is it a playoff roster? I think it’s competitive, mainly due to the pitching but the lineups are also pretty strong even if we don’t add another big bat. Ultimately, for the same money, I’ll take Hader over Teoscar. When Giolito, Jansen, Martin and Pivetta come off the payroll next year, maybe spend some of that windfall on a big bat or two. Valdez becomes pretty superfluous with Grissom’s arrival (and lack of L/R splits); I wouldn’t mind seeing Enmanuel’s spot taken by a latter-day Pokey/McDonald (e.g. Springfield/UConn product Nick Ahmed or Brandon Crawford).

By my reckoning, and based on Spotrac’s current numbers, this roster lands somewhere in the $240m neighborhood all told, which is in the tax but comfortably under the $277m draft-pick penalty, giving plenty of flexibility for the trade deadline.

Yoshida doesn't have a no-trade clause, does he?

I like Masa -- good hitter. No speed, no defense. Sox don't need him as a dh.

I wonder if part of the reason they signed up last year was because he is a friend and played with Yamamoto? Hoping to tip the free agent die in their favor. I suspect that was a Larry Luccino idea. But I 'm just joking.

Trade Masa to the Dodgers (where Yamamoto is). Eat much of the contract. Move Durran to LF, sign Adam Duvall for CF. O'Neill in RF. Resign JT for DH.

Sign Montie and Stephenson.

Done?

Trading Masa after one year of his deal is an excellent way to convince every Japanese player to never sign w/ the Red Sox. Culturally, it would be an immense sign of disrespect. Also, signing someone just cause you think you’ll attract another player is a terrible way of doing business — highly unlikely this is the reason they signed Masa.

As I said, I like him. I just wish he was a good defender. And that's a big drawback. If he can start hitting for some power, that would help a lot.

Honestly the trade value of large contracts on your books is largely irrelevant to me. You sign players to help your team win games, not just because you think they are good value. Player evaluation has gotten much more accurate since the moneyball revolution 20 years ago, and so the free agent market has become much more efficient as a result. You used to be able to buy dollar bills for 50 cents but that is no longer the case. Most of the time you get what you pay for, and often times you get less than you pay for.

The Red Sox should be less concerned about value plays on the free agent market, and more concerned with making sure they have enough young cost-controlled players that it offsets any underwater contracts they might have.

Kirby’s the dude I want from the Mariners but there gm wont even talk about them apparently, money problems in Seattle , dumb 

I mean I’d do that trade if I was the Red Sox , ray’s gonna be mehhh this year coming back from Tommy John but it’s a good trade idea 

Yoshida for Ray straight up.

I don’t think it’s financial, your paying 16 million for an under 1 WAR reliever , he’s not dominant , they have other relievers who’ll be fine , put the money to different areas to help the team 

It would be. Using WAR to measure a closer doesnt really work.

What you have with Jansen is a proven closer with a long track record of being good or great which in the world of volatile relief pitching is no small feat.

They can trade him and you hope whoever steps into the role becomes Koji 2013 or at least as good if not better than 2023 Jansen.

I think there's a difference between being the closer where you are the guy and there's no safety net or being a setup man.

Doesn't mean a Chris Martin can't step into the role and succeed. You just don't have the certainty of it until it happens. The Sox paid for certainty and reliability with Jansen.

That doesn't mean that I'm against him being traded. I didn't think he was especially great, particularly after his 400th save game, although he did a good job keeping painful blown saves to a relative minimum even if it didn't always feel like it.

I dont think he pitched well enough to say he's irreplaceable or anything like that.

But when you look over the roster and its issues, closer is hardly at the top of the list of pressing issues when you lack top end starting pitching, have defensive question marks, only have 1 legit option for bullpen lefty and you have no idea if he can be as effective again, a right handed power bat is probably needed and hell they really don't have a legit option off the bench to back up 1st or 3b for a day if Casas or Devers need a breather unless the plan is to keep Dalbec as a bench piece.

There are so many more pressing issues than merely having a good reliable experienced closer rather than a great one.

If they're trading him the motivation is financial.

Reliever A (2023):

xERA - 3.16
XBA - .203
xSLG - .342
K rate - 27.7%

Reliever B (2023):

xERA - 3.18
xBA - .265
xSLG - .345
K rate - 23.1%

Reliever A is Kenley. Reliever B is… Chris Martin? Kenley was better at getting strikeouts, whereas Martin was below average at doing so. Where Martin excelled was limiting barrels/weak contact and never walking anyone. (And quite frankly probably being luckier than Jansen was when it came to defense.)

If you want to argue they have enough relief depth to withstand a Kenley trade (although I would note that Martin will be 38, & Whitlock has been hurt on and off for two years), sure. But he’s still good! His numbers under the hood are in a similar tier to say, Emmanuel Clase, Evan Phillips, Raisel Iglesias and Martin. Quibbling whether he’s worth 16 million dollars or a few million less than that for one year is just silly to me. But it sounds like he’s on his way out regardless, so let’s see what the return is when they do trade him.