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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 3, 2023 13:18:36 GMT -5
There is no one I want the Red Sox to associate with less than Bauer. I get the feeling that people who now want to sign him here and elsewhere on the internet are not doing so for baseball reasons, regardless of which team they root for. I don’t even know what this means. There’s a high end talent who was pushed from the league for something that has shown to be not true. Why wouldn’t you want to sign that person, especially if the price is discounted? Are we supposed to want to hang out with everyone that gets signed?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 3, 2023 13:21:39 GMT -5
Bauer now has a significant amount of supporters and I would guess is likely to get an MLB job. Gonna be tough to keep the lid on this discussion all offseason.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 3, 2023 13:29:04 GMT -5
For me, Bello, Pivetta, Sale and two not yet in the system. Both Kutter and Houck were in consideration, but in the end I think we need more change/new blood.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 3, 2023 13:42:38 GMT -5
I am cutting a very wide berth around any discussion of Bauer as a human being, but what would make you say he's the best arm on the market? He's really only had one exceptionally good full season and that was 5 years ago. Since 2019 he has a 3.98 FIP; for comparison Kutter Crawford's was 3.80 this season. A number of free agent pitchers have been better than that and none of them have been out of MLB for over two years. I look at his numbers and stuff and don’t put all my eggs in the FIP basket. Perhaps if you’re consistently out performing your FIP it’s not worth looking at. I feel he’s a top of the rotation type starter who’s not going to be paid like one. If I’m wrong about how much he’d get then no I don’t want him. I want the talent at the discount. You don't have to put your eggs in the FIP basket but you could at least check to see whether the bolded is the case. It's not: career FIP of 3.87 and ERA of 3.79. Prior to his half-season in LA his ERA was slightly higher than his FIP.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 3, 2023 13:47:43 GMT -5
First of all, while it's understandable for a poll, picking five is insufficient for anyone who's been paying attention. I'd like to see the team sign two starters, to go along with Bello, Crawford, Sale, and Pivetta. The latter has given all of us a lesson in what it means not just to eat innings, but to chew them up and spit them out. He only got better as the year wore on. Given the medical ward that much of the starting pitching occupied for much of the season, his value is obvious.
I'm also encouraged by Crawford's work. He deserves consideration for a starters role in 2024 - if not at the beginning, then as attrition starts to eat away at the list of starters. All that said, six guys isn't enough. Some of the others in the list will have to step up as well.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 3, 2023 13:52:36 GMT -5
Bauer was a bad teammate, incredibly self-centered, dumb with drones, an online troll, and a sticky-stuff beneficiary long before he was accused of horrific acts. Can we just not pretend he some wronged pitching god? No thanks for on-field, clubhouse, and off-field reasons.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 3, 2023 13:55:15 GMT -5
I look at his numbers and stuff and don’t put all my eggs in the FIP basket. Perhaps if you’re consistently out performing your FIP it’s not worth looking at. I feel he’s a top of the rotation type starter who’s not going to be paid like one. If I’m wrong about how much he’d get then no I don’t want him. I want the talent at the discount. You don't have to put your eggs in the FIP basket but you could at least check to see whether the bolded is the case. It's not: career FIP of 3.87 and ERA of 3.79. Prior to his half-season in LA his ERA was slightly higher than his FIP. Sure… ERAs: 2018: 2.21 2019: 4.48 (terrible after the trade to the Reds) 2020: 1.73 2021: 2.59 SO9 2018: 11.3 2019: 10.7 2020: 12.3 2021: 11.5 WHIP: 2018: 1.089 2019: 1.249 2020: 0.795 2021: 1.003 I mean it’s a tough sell he’s had one great season and that was 5 years ago. Now of course, I don’t know what his stuff currently looks like and that’s a real factor. For purposes of now, unless I hear other wise I’m going to assume it’s what we last saw and I’d that’s the case then they should be looking into him at the right money.
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Post by pk on Oct 3, 2023 14:03:24 GMT -5
Bassitt's 3/63 is probably the most direct comp, though Gray is coming off a better season than Bassitt was. I'd say 3/60 is probably the baseline for Gray. Yammamoto for 7/175 and Gray 3/60 would be fine with me. Yammamoto, Gray, Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford is fine with me. Plus Houck, whitlock, Bernardino, Martin, Jansen, Schreiber, Winckowski. +1 This is almost exactly as I see it. Yamamoto, Sale, NCIS (Mark Harmon?), Bello, Crawford, Pivetta (saying 6 as likely one would have an injury, or start with 6 man rotation). That bullpen would seem to be lights out, with a few who could step in for spot starts, and AAA depth as well with Drohan, Mata, Walter, et al.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 3, 2023 14:11:27 GMT -5
You don't have to put your eggs in the FIP basket but you could at least check to see whether the bolded is the case. It's not: career FIP of 3.87 and ERA of 3.79. Prior to his half-season in LA his ERA was slightly higher than his FIP. Sure… ERAs: 2018: 2.21 2019: 4.48 (terrible after the trade to the Reds) 2020: 1.73 2021: 2.59 SO9 2018: 11.3 2019: 10.7 2020: 12.3 2021: 11.5 WHIP: 2018: 1.089 2019: 1.249 2020: 0.795 2021: 1.003 I mean it’s a tough sell he’s had one great season and that was 5 years ago. Now of course, I don’t know what his stuff currently looks like and that’s a real factor. For purposes of now, unless I hear other wise I’m going to assume it’s what we last saw and I’d that’s the case then they should be looking into him at the right money. One great *full* season. He was great in 2020, but it was just 73 IP. He had a 2.59 ERA in 108 IP in 2021 but a 4.03 FIP and 3.69 xFIP. And he hasn't pitched in MLB in 2+ years.
I'm not saying he's lousy or anything. But you said he was the top arm on the free agent market, and I'm not taking this track record over Nola, Montgomery, Snell, or Gray.
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Post by soxaddict on Oct 3, 2023 15:22:13 GMT -5
Yamamoto Montgomery Bello Sale Pivetta (or Kutter, whoever you prefer) This gets my vote. I'd be stoked with any two from the group of Yamamoto, Monty, Nola, Gray, Snell.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 3, 2023 15:44:40 GMT -5
I don’t know how anyone can look at how awful the vibes around the team have been the past two years and think the most unlikable person in baseball is the solution to their problems. I also don’t get how you look at the pitching problems they’ve had and determine a guy who hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2021 is what they need.
Also just saying, Bauer was a sticky stuff guy. And he wasn’t exactly great in his handful of starts after the crackdown.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 3, 2023 16:02:29 GMT -5
"The Next Pedro" is obviously an impossible and ridiculous bar to set (come on, nobody's actually expecting that, so why bring it up?), but having waited so long for even a viable mid-rotation starter to emerge from our system, it's hard to countenance trading him away with so many years of control. We'd be thirsting to acquire a guy like him if he was on another team. Obviously no one is untradeable, but give me a rotation with Bello plus free agent acquisition(s) over a scenario where we trade Bello for a pitcher who might be a moderate upgrade. Hard to imagine a scenario in which Bello gets traded as one of the new GM's first official acts. At least Betts only had one year left and was clearly going to be difficult to shoehorn into the long-term budget. Would Bello bring a haul? Of course, because a young, controllable big league pitcher with filthy stuff (at night) is what everyone wants.
Trading Bello is like punting on first down. It's a move made by a 100-loss team with a junk farm system at the very beginning of a long rebuild with a far-off window of contention. Even then, can you ever really feel like your window is at least 5 years off? Even if so, would you, as that team's GM, expect to be around to see it open? You certainly wouldn't see it if you traded a Bello and watched him flourish elsewhere.
The Red Sox, as lousy as consecutive 78-win seasons feel for fans, should contend next year, at least for a WC spot, if not for the division if everything falls right. Off-loading a fine bird like Bello, who is already in hand, is downright reckless even if the return is two even finer birds from the bush.
What if the very fine bird in your hand will make very fine bait for one of the very finest bald eagles in all the land? It would take a LOT to get Bello, but just because he’s the best pitching prospect the Red Sox have developed in a decade or two doesn’t mean he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball. I’d trade Bello-plus for Luis Robert, for example. And I’d be ok, if not particularly delighted, putting him in a package for Logan Webb or George Kirby. Obviously there would need to be a plan to replace his production but that goes without saying.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 3, 2023 17:21:23 GMT -5
Im in on one of Montgomery/Gray if they are gotten for a 3 year deal. And Yamamoto on a longer deal.
I'm Crawford over Pivetta for two reasons. A he was better in the rotation than Pivetta, and he is better as a starter than reliver. Pivetta has been better as a reliver than a starter
Yamamoto Sale Montgomery/Gray Bello Crawford
Jansen Martin Whitlock Pivetta (Trade Candidate) Houck (Trade Candidate)
as the start of a bullpen and SP depth (If no one is traded from the group)
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Post by jdb on Oct 3, 2023 17:44:11 GMT -5
I heard Passan on the baseball is dead pod and he thinks Yamamoto gets over $200M and Rosenthall comped Carlos Rondon in yesterday’s Athletic column for Montgomery.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 3, 2023 17:47:54 GMT -5
I heard Passan on the baseball is dead pod and he thinks Yamamoto gets over $200M and Rosenthall comped Carlos Rondon in yesterday’s Athletic column for Montgomery. If Montgomery approaches 6 years 162M it may be a long offseason for sox fans expecting two good SPs.. I like Montgomery but don't see him being worth that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 3, 2023 18:00:26 GMT -5
Without getting into my personal feelings on his case - I feel like Bauer should be fair to discuss as a free agent because some MLB team might sign him this offseason (though it's not like we haven't seen other players fully black balled from pro sports), but I think even if so, that team is unlikely to be the Red Sox. Both on his side and on the Red Sox side you would think they would want to avoid a situation that draws unnecessary negative attention.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 3, 2023 18:00:43 GMT -5
Montgomery ain't getting close to 6/162.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 3, 2023 21:41:36 GMT -5
Hard to imagine a scenario in which Bello gets traded as one of the new GM's first official acts. At least Betts only had one year left and was clearly going to be difficult to shoehorn into the long-term budget. Would Bello bring a haul? Of course, because a young, controllable big league pitcher with filthy stuff (at night) is what everyone wants.
Trading Bello is like punting on first down. It's a move made by a 100-loss team with a junk farm system at the very beginning of a long rebuild with a far-off window of contention. Even then, can you ever really feel like your window is at least 5 years off? Even if so, would you, as that team's GM, expect to be around to see it open? You certainly wouldn't see it if you traded a Bello and watched him flourish elsewhere.
The Red Sox, as lousy as consecutive 78-win seasons feel for fans, should contend next year, at least for a WC spot, if not for the division if everything falls right. Off-loading a fine bird like Bello, who is already in hand, is downright reckless even if the return is two even finer birds from the bush.
What if the very fine bird in your hand will make very fine bait for one of the very finest bald eagles in all the land? It would take a LOT to get Bello, but just because he’s the best pitching prospect the Red Sox have developed in a decade or two doesn’t mean he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball. I’d trade Bello-plus for Luis Robert, for example. And I’d be ok, if not particularly delighted, putting him in a package for Logan Webb or George Kirby. Obviously there would need to be a plan to replace his production but that goes without saying. I guess agree to disagree. I don't want to trade a budding starting pitcher with five years of control for an oft-injured CF with two years. I also have no idea why either SF or SEA would want to trade their aces, both with the same amount of control as BOS has on Bello, for a kid who hasn't quite reached their level. Webb just signed a contract extension fer chrissakes, so there's no way in hell he'll be traded this winter. I would consider trading Bello for Trout (another oft-injured CF), with some of his contract eaten by LAA. Other than that, I can't think of many realistic scenarios.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 3, 2023 21:50:27 GMT -5
First of all, while it's understandable for a poll, picking five is insufficient for anyone who's been paying attention. I'd like to see the team sign two starters, to go along with Bello, Crawford, Sale, and Pivetta. The latter has given all of us a lesson in what it means not just to eat innings, but to chew them up and spit them out. He only got better as the year wore on. Given the medical ward that much of the starting pitching occupied for much of the season, his value is obvious. I'm also encouraged by Crawford's work. He deserves consideration for a starters role in 2024 - if not at the beginning, then as attrition starts to eat away at the list of starters. All that said, six guys isn't enough. Some of the others in the list will have to step up as well. I agree that any team needs at least 7 starters over the course of a year but the norm is still a 5-man rotation. There's always talk about teams going to 6-man rotations but it never really happens because that means your best pitcher (or best two pitchers) only pitches every 6 days. Not every pitcher loves a 6-day routine and you need to have all 6 guys on 6-day routines.
Ultimately, if 70 people vote for their favorite 5-man rotation, you can easily see who the top 7-8 collective choices are. And then everyone gets to debate why they chose their five and who they left off... which is the whole point, right?
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 3, 2023 22:39:05 GMT -5
What if the very fine bird in your hand will make very fine bait for one of the very finest bald eagles in all the land? It would take a LOT to get Bello, but just because he’s the best pitching prospect the Red Sox have developed in a decade or two doesn’t mean he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball. I’d trade Bello-plus for Luis Robert, for example. And I’d be ok, if not particularly delighted, putting him in a package for Logan Webb or George Kirby. Obviously there would need to be a plan to replace his production but that goes without saying. I guess agree to disagree. I don't want to trade a budding starting pitcher with five years of control for an oft-injured CF with two years. I also have no idea why either SF or SEA would want to trade their aces, both with the same amount of control as BOS has on Bello, for a kid who hasn't quite reached their level. Webb just signed a contract extension fer chrissakes, so there's no way in hell he'll be traded this winter. I would consider trading Bello for Trout (another oft-injured CF), with some of his contract eaten by LAA. Other than that, I can't think of many realistic scenarios. Luis Robert has 4 years of control, he has $20m options for '26 and '27. And he's had injury issues but he's one of the best players in the game when he's healthy. You're not getting a bona fide star on a good contract without giving up a lot, and Bello is one of the most valuable trade chips in baseball.
The Red Sox are coming off of consecutive 78-win seasons. I don't think any move whatsoever should be off the table this offseason, major changes are needed. And the Giants are in a similar spot. They shouldn't trade Webb, but their team is complete garbage after him--I would be surprised if they weren't willing to entertain teams that could make it worth their while. Brayan Bello is a piece that could help make it worth their while, is all I'm saying.
Bello for Trout is a significantly worse trade, even if it's just straight up. I wouldn't think twice about turning that down even if the Angels were eating $100 million.
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Post by orion09 on Oct 3, 2023 23:07:03 GMT -5
If he treats women half as good as he treated Tito Francona, that's all I need to know. Ozuna and Chapman can get F'd, too. Shocked you were banned from Sons of Sam Born, btw I take it as a badge of honor. Ban me here too for all I care. A man was unjustly framed as a sexual abuser…evidence now confirms it was a hit job…and he deserves redemption. If you don’t want to give him that due, at least admit one of two things: You don’t like his personality and/or you “believe all women” even when the woman proves to be a demonstrable extortion artist. Bauer was banned from MLB for a crime he did not commit. That is a miscarriage of justice. End of story I applaud you for sticking to your principles. These mods are extremely out of pocket lol
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 4, 2023 2:42:41 GMT -5
First of all, while it's understandable for a poll, picking five is insufficient for anyone who's been paying attention. I'd like to see the team sign two starters, to go along with Bello, Crawford, Sale, and Pivetta. The latter has given all of us a lesson in what it means not just to eat innings, but to chew them up and spit them out. He only got better as the year wore on. Given the medical ward that much of the starting pitching occupied for much of the season, his value is obvious. I'm also encouraged by Crawford's work. He deserves consideration for a starters role in 2024 - if not at the beginning, then as attrition starts to eat away at the list of starters. All that said, six guys isn't enough. Some of the others in the list will have to step up as well. I agree that any team needs at least 7 starters over the course of a year but the norm is still a 5-man rotation. There's always talk about teams going to 6-man rotations but it never really happens because that means your best pitcher (or best two pitchers) only pitches every 6 days. Not every pitcher loves a 6-day routine and you need to have all 6 guys on 6-day routines.
Ultimately, if 70 people vote for their favorite 5-man rotation, you can easily see who the top 7-8 collective choices are. And then everyone gets to debate why they chose their five and who they left off... which is the whole point, right?
Exactly. Which at this point in the poll would be: Bello Sale Yomamoto? Pivetta Gray? Crawford Whitlock Houck Paxton Which would be formidable, contribute to a powerful Pen, and still have still have reasonable depth in AAA and AA for both SP and RP. Similar to what 2023 was supposed to have before injuries (projected by many) and inexperience flipped the script.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2023 4:10:58 GMT -5
Expected and actual BABIP for Sox starters last year, with their xBABIP ranking among the 154 guys who allowed contact 200+ times as starters:
.299 / .331 Kutter Crawford (3) .314 / .343 James Paxton (20) .315 / .336 Chris Sale (21) .322 / .344 Brayan Bello (30) .323 / .334 Tanner Houck (32) .335 / .335 Group average
.351 / .341 Nick Pivetta (130)
The insane indifference to pitch quality for balls in play is actually east to explain. The Sox were god-awful in making routine plays. The more easy outs you induced, the more you were hurt by the defense.
This shouldn't happen again.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2023 5:16:45 GMT -5
I spent all year trying to convince folks that Tanner Houck's problem was stamina. Somehow I forgot that he didn't have a chance to work out over the winter! And both Houck and Cora spent the last week or two talking about that, and Houck talked a lot about how eager he was to spend all winter gaining strength in every way possible.
So here are the xwOBA numbers, first 3 innings versus after. The first pair of number is before his June injury. The second is his first four games after rushing back, and the last pair is three of his four subsequent outings. In the one I'm skipping, he went on 6 days rest and got killed to the tune of .477 and never made it to the 4th. When you see what he did in the 3 surrounding outings you'll see why that outing was not relevant here.
.245 / .377 (154 , 134 PA) .316 / .339 (54, 38) .299 / .291 (34, 32)
It certainly looks like he was working on building stamina when sidelined with the face injury.
The .295 he had in his last 3 meaningful starts corresponds to a strong #2 starter.
The projected 2024 roster here has him in the bullpen. I'll assert right now that he has a better chance of getting a CY vote than he does of pitching mostly in relief.
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Post by jdb on Oct 4, 2023 7:30:50 GMT -5
Looking at payrolls I didn’t realize Glasnow makes a jump from roughly $5M to $25M. Rays in general have a few guys with big jumps I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a big name or two from them traded. Right now I’d put Glasnow up there with Cease and Keller likely to get dealt.
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