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Post by imisspedey on Oct 4, 2023 8:59:59 GMT -5
1) Yamamoto (8 x $25) 2) Nola (5 x $24) 3) Bello 4) Sale 5) Pivetta 6) Crawford
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Post by Smittyw on Oct 4, 2023 9:57:53 GMT -5
Looking at payrolls I didn’t realize Glasnow makes a jump from roughly $5M to $25M. Rays in general have a few guys with big jumps I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a big name or two from them traded. Right now I’d put Glasnow up there with Cease and Keller likely to get dealt. I wonder how a Boston fanbase that seems to have soured on Chris Sale for not being able to stay on the field would welcome Glasnow. The gap between reputation and actual results is kind of cavernous there. He's pitched 100 innings twice, and never more than this year's 120. (Counterargument: I guess there should be lots of bullets left in that arm)
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,833
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Post by nomar on Oct 4, 2023 11:58:13 GMT -5
Let’s just hope Sale, Houck, Crawford, and Pivetta can amount to 2 starters on a full year basis. Expecting more than that is asking to get hurt IMO. If they stay healthy and/or Crawford/Houck can start to figure out the 3rd time through the order, then we’re in bonus land and probably in good shape for a playoff pitching staff.
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Post by manfred on Oct 4, 2023 13:33:47 GMT -5
Looking at payrolls I didn’t realize Glasnow makes a jump from roughly $5M to $25M. Rays in general have a few guys with big jumps I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a big name or two from them traded. Right now I’d put Glasnow up there with Cease and Keller likely to get dealt. I wonder how a Boston fanbase that seems to have soured on Chris Sale for not being able to stay on the field would welcome Glasnow. The gap between reputation and actual results is kind of cavernous there. He's pitched 100 innings twice, and never more than this year's 120. (Counterargument: I guess there should be lots of bullets left in that arm) Glasnow is very good, but I don’t imagine there is a likely Sox-Rays trade of that magnitude.
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Post by kwodes on Oct 4, 2023 14:12:22 GMT -5
Has Yamamoto been following the typical Japanese rotation of pitching every 6 or 7 days? Is that anything we'd be concerned with?
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 4, 2023 15:17:08 GMT -5
Someone really has to sell me on Pivetta over Crawford in the rotation. I argued before 2023 started that Crawford should be in there over Pivetta and feel like that just validated itself
As a Starter 2023:
Pivetta: 4.41 FIP Crawford: 3.80 FIP
Total innings 2nd + 3rd time through the order 2023 (To counter that Pivetta was essentially a starter the whole time) Pivetta: 72 Innings Crawford: 66.2 Innings
Career as Starter Pivetta: 4.44 FIP Crawford: 4.14 FIP (also 3 years younger)
So if it specifically came down to only 1 of these two being in the rotation in 2024 I don't see how we would pick Pivetta over Crawford?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 4, 2023 15:23:00 GMT -5
Pivetta added a sweeper midway through the season and it was his best pitch. 116 strikeouts and 22 walks in 82 innings from July through the end of the season
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 4, 2023 16:28:46 GMT -5
I bought into Pivetta. I love his heart. But they need one top starter. Bring back Erod or Evoladdi to round it out. But they need one top guy.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 4, 2023 17:49:37 GMT -5
Pivetta added a sweeper midway through the season and it was his best pitch. 116 strikeouts and 22 walks in 82 innings from July through the end of the season But we are going to ignore his career numbers and that from July onward we manipulated him as a reliever to not go through the order a 2nd time too much, and rarely ever a 3rd?
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 4, 2023 18:12:32 GMT -5
Pivetta added a sweeper midway through the season and it was his best pitch. 116 strikeouts and 22 walks in 82 innings from July through the end of the season But we are going to ignore his career numbers and that from July onward we manipulated him as a reliever to not go through the order a 2nd time too much, and rarely ever a 3rd? I agree with you in general that Crawford is ahead in the rotation pecking order, but it’s definitely a mistake to discount something like developing an excellent new breaking ball because of his previous track record. That’s a material change that can genuinely help him reach a new level. From July 31 on, he made 8 of his 16 starts on the year, averaging 5.5 innings in those starts with a 3.5 ERA. He showed enough that he can win the job in the spring. I like him in the pen because I think his stuff is more likely to play up in the pen than Crawford’s. But I think they’re two very good options for the end of any rotation.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 4, 2023 18:34:13 GMT -5
But we are going to ignore his career numbers and that from July onward we manipulated him as a reliever to not go through the order a 2nd time too much, and rarely ever a 3rd? I agree with you in general that Crawford is ahead in the rotation pecking order, but it’s definitely a mistake to discount something like developing an excellent new breaking ball because of his previous track record. That’s a material change that can genuinely help him reach a new level. From July 31 on, he made 8 of his 16 starts on the year, averaging 5.5 innings in those starts with a 3.5 ERA. He showed enough that he can win the job in the spring. I like him in the pen because I think his stuff is more likely to play up in the pen than Crawford’s. But I think they’re two very good options for the end of any rotation. I agree with everything here, but would also note it would be a mistake to ignore a very large track record for a soon to be 31 year old because of a 2 month sample size
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 20:18:10 GMT -5
1) Yamamoto (8 x $25) 2) Nola (5 x $24) 3) Bello 4) Sale 5) Pivetta 6) Crawford Nice opening salvo, @misspedey.
I would sign onto that in a heartbeat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2023 21:08:59 GMT -5
1) Yamamoto (8 x $25) 2) Nola (5 x $24) 3) Bello 4) Sale 5) Pivetta 6) Crawford Nice opening salvo, @misspedey. I would sign onto that in a heartbeat.
Have a feeling Yamamoto might actually get 10 years 250 million. Sounds high but then again we're always shocked when the contract signed is higher than anticipated.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 4, 2023 21:31:19 GMT -5
Nice opening salvo, @misspedey. I would sign onto that in a heartbeat.
Have a feeling Yamamoto might actually get 10 years 250 million. Sounds high but then again we're always shocked when the contract signed is higher than anticipated. When's the last pitcher that was signed to a 10-yr contract? Not sure why a Japanese pitcher would the next guy. Greta track in Japan and I'd love to sign him. But 10yrs at $25mil/yr? How many established MLB pitchers would you sign for that right now?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 21:54:08 GMT -5
Have a feeling Yamamoto might actually get 10 years 250 million. Sounds high but then again we're always shocked when the contract signed is higher than anticipated. When's the last pitcher that was signed to a 10-yr contract? Not sure why a Japanese pitcher would the next guy. Greta track in Japan and I'd love to sign him. But 10yrs at $25mil/yr? How many established MLB pitchers would you sign for that right now? I think @misspedey is on the money, as it were. 8/200 seems right for a 25-yo. I wonder if his agent might advise him to go only 5-6 years so he his FA at 30 or 31 for a second, even bigger payday. I guess an 8-year deal with player options at 4 and 5 years would accomplish the same thing (and should bring the AAV down).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 4, 2023 23:27:42 GMT -5
Have a feeling Yamamoto might actually get 10 years 250 million. Sounds high but then again we're always shocked when the contract signed is higher than anticipated. When's the last pitcher that was signed to a 10-yr contract? Not sure why a Japanese pitcher would the next guy. Greta track in Japan and I'd love to sign him. But 10yrs at $25mil/yr? How many established MLB pitchers would you sign for that right now? How many 25 year old pitchers of Yamamoto's caliber are available? Most free agent pitchers are pushing 30. That's why I think Yamamoto could buck the trend, that. And the insanity that ensued last year. Was it really expected Bogaers or Trea Turner would land huge deals for 11 years that took them into their 40s? At this point little surprises me anymore. I expect the bidding for a young potential ace to be crazy. Because he's not established statewide I didn't think his annual will be in the 30s or 40s, but given his age and the level of competition for him I do think some team, I'll guess the Mets, will blink and give him 10 years 250 million.
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 5, 2023 7:24:25 GMT -5
Have a feeling Yamamoto might actually get 10 years 250 million. Sounds high but then again we're always shocked when the contract signed is higher than anticipated. When's the last pitcher that was signed to a 10-yr contract? Not sure why a Japanese pitcher would the next guy. Greta track in Japan and I'd love to sign him. But 10yrs at $25mil/yr? How many established MLB pitchers would you sign for that right now? Wayne Garland received a 10 year deal in 1977. It did not end well.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2023 7:45:07 GMT -5
On Yamamoto, I'm not sure I see a guy who hasn't pitched in the ML before getting a 10 year deal but overall I have a hard time seeing any pitcher get a 10 year deal. Gerrit Cole did get 9 years though when he was 29 so I mean who knows it only takes one team to push it to 10 years to lower the AAV. We probably will never see another FA SP that's 25 with this type of buzz and market so anything is possible.
That being said I'm going to predict 8 years @$224M with an opt out after 4 years and if he's as good as advertised he doesn't pitch through that whole contract and opts out and gets another boat load of money.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 5, 2023 8:11:42 GMT -5
Nola at 5 years $24 seems awfully light. I could see him getting closer to 6X30, I feel he will command even more years in todays market. But yeah, I would be a big proponent of the Yama/Nola combo. It might actually be my preferred fantasy offseason at this point with Bader.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2023 8:24:55 GMT -5
Nola at 5 years $24 seems awfully light. I could see him getting closer to 6X30, I feel he will command even more years in todays market. But yeah, I would be a big proponent of the Yama/Nola combo. It might actually be my preferred fantasy offseason at this point with Bader. I think I agree with you here but looking back Robbie Ray got 5 years 115 and Gausman got 5 years at 110. Ray was 30 and Gausman was 31, Nola will be 31 next year. I think 5 years sound about right, in the range of 24-26M perhaps but Nola did have a down year compared to Ray and Gausman in their FA years. I know it's not always as simple as saying player X signed for this a few years ago therefore player Y will get this much but I would think those deals might be good barometers to what Nola might be looking at.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 8:25:02 GMT -5
When's the last pitcher that was signed to a 10-yr contract? Not sure why a Japanese pitcher would the next guy. Greta track in Japan and I'd love to sign him. But 10yrs at $25mil/yr? How many established MLB pitchers would you sign for that right now? Wayne Garland received a 10 year deal in 1977. It did not end well. True and that one didnt start particularly well either. He pitched reasonably well in 1977 despite 19 losses and then got hurt in 1978 and was pretty much done at that point. The Indians invested heavily in a guy who in his best year only struck out about 4 batters per 9 innings. Gee, how could it have all gone wrong?
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 5, 2023 10:56:16 GMT -5
Nola at 5 years $24 seems awfully light. I could see him getting closer to 6X30, I feel he will command even more years in todays market. But yeah, I would be a big proponent of the Yama/Nola combo. It might actually be my preferred fantasy offseason at this point with Bader. I think I agree with you here but looking back Robbie Ray got 5 years 115 and Gausman got 5 years at 110. Ray was 30 and Gausman was 31, Nola will be 31 next year. I think 5 years sound about right, in the range of 24-26M perhaps but Nola did have a down year compared to Ray and Gausman in their FA years. I know it's not always as simple as saying player X signed for this a few years ago therefore player Y will get this much but I would think those deals might be good barometers to what Nola might be looking at. Nola at 5/120 is a reasonable gamble. At 6/180 I’m running as far away as possible.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2023 11:08:34 GMT -5
I don't totally understand why people are so wary of Nola. He had a bit of a down year, but his velocity didn't drop at all (always the biggest red flag that a pitcher might be in decline). The K rate has trended down but not catastrophically so. He's been as consistently healthy as any pitcher in the game. There's generic risk to signing any 30 year old pitcher, but I don't see anyone else who's a better bet to perform at an ace level on the free agent market, other than maybe Yamamoto.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2023 11:11:35 GMT -5
I think I agree with you here but looking back Robbie Ray got 5 years 115 and Gausman got 5 years at 110. Ray was 30 and Gausman was 31, Nola will be 31 next year. I think 5 years sound about right, in the range of 24-26M perhaps but Nola did have a down year compared to Ray and Gausman in their FA years. I know it's not always as simple as saying player X signed for this a few years ago therefore player Y will get this much but I would think those deals might be good barometers to what Nola might be looking at. Nola at 5/120 is a reasonable gamble. At 6/180 I’m running as far away as possible. Same, 180M would be tied for 8th as the most money given out to a pitcher of all time and only 12 pitchers ever have received an AAV at or above 30M. The list of guys in that range were all bonafide aces, I would not want to touch Nola at that amount. I don't see him getting all that close to it either, I think max he would get would be something along the lines of what Rodon got, 6/162. I wouldn't really want to go that 6th year on Nola personally but they do need at least one good SP and if it is Nola in that range then so be it, it's not my money.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 5, 2023 11:12:59 GMT -5
Someone really has to sell me on Pivetta over Crawford in the rotation. I argued before 2023 started that Crawford should be in there over Pivetta and feel like that just validated itself As a Starter 2023: Pivetta: 4.41 FIP Crawford: 3.80 FIP Total innings 2nd + 3rd time through the order 2023 (To counter that Pivetta was essentially a starter the whole time) Pivetta: 72 Innings Crawford: 66.2 Innings Career as Starter Pivetta: 4.44 FIP Crawford: 4.14 FIP (also 3 years younger) So if it specifically came down to only 1 of these two being in the rotation in 2024 I don't see how we would pick Pivetta over Crawford? It is not Crawford OR Pivetta. They will both be in the rotation. I think the last time the Red Sox had a fully healthy rotation was 2004: Schilling Pedro Wakefield Lowe Arroyo ….all made 29 or more starts totaling 157 of 162 starts!
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