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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 23, 2024 9:52:06 GMT -5
I want them to sign Montgomery too, but it is confusing to me that fans think they should simply just agree to Boras' asking price, which clearly is being shown by the actions of every team in MLB to be really high.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 23, 2024 9:54:22 GMT -5
I’m still extremely skeptical. But with that said… You can’t be as stupid as to keep on engaging with Boras about Montgomery and expect to get him for a ridiculous bargain right? It’s like if I keep on going back to the dealership to look at an Aston Martin being like, “Eh, I dunno I have a budget.” Like can you talk to Jordan Montgomery and realistically not expect to have to outlay at least 90-100 million dollars at bare minimum for conversations to even be worth your time? It's not like every Boras client gets ridiculously overpaid. And no other team has signed him, right? It seems clear that his price is going to have to come down if he wants to sign a contract. And also, who's to say the Red Sox wouldn't be willing to pay 90-100 million.
With this tweet, by the way, and even the whiny Milliken one, there seems to be more smoke with Montgomery and the Red Sox than with any other team...
That's the point I was trying to make - why even engage with Jordan Montgomery if you're not willing to pay a median level offer for his services? Like he's not getting the Rodon deal that Boras is asking for, but you'd have to be incredibly naive to think he'd accept something like 3/60 or what not, right? (Granted, this is also the team that allegedly offered Xander a 4/90 extension offer.) I'd like to imagine this has all be a long con with a Good Cop-Bad Cop routine by Breslow where he's going to Boras and being like "Hey man, you know John. He gave me a tight budget. We can sign Jordan but it has to be at this price,"... but that level of foresight and subterfuge seems out of character with an ownership group that includes Tom Werner. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 23, 2024 9:55:04 GMT -5
With this tweet, by the way, and even the whiny Milliken one, there seems to be more smoke with Montgomery and the Red Sox than with any other team...
Yeah, everyone except the Cubs and Red Sox are actively burning calories to tell their fans not to expect anything, and now Bradford is specifically bringing up Montgomery. Kinda expecting it to happen at this point.
I think most people would've been happy with Montgomery, Giolito and a few popular trades at the start of the offseason, but something tells me everyone will stay mad if that's what happens.
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Post by itinerantherb on Feb 23, 2024 10:00:55 GMT -5
Manager Alex Cora has appreciated the focus on getting quicker outs. In previous years, pitchers may have been too focused on pitching to the edges instead of attacking the zone.
“Everybody talks about throwing strikes, but we went from one philosophy to another in three years, and I think, with all due respect to the people that were running things (chief baseball officer) Chaim (Bloom) and the group, sometimes you got to be more consistent in that aspect,” Cora said. “There were reasons for it and we tried our best, but it didn’t work out. We got hit hard in the zone last year.” That part definitely stood out, and makes you wonder about some sort of disconnect between the pitching staff-coaches-front office. The case study from last year is Nick Pivetta, who got demoted to the bullpen and as Cora related last September, had a Come to Jesus moment via Chris Martin: “He[Chris Martin]’s a big part of what Nick is doing right now. When he went over there [to the bullpen], he talked to him about being aggressive. Use your best pitches as much as possible. Don’t waste pitches. Attack. Be in attack mode… As we know, the previous year and earlier in the season, Nick was shying away from the zone. Whatever Chris told Nick, it changed his season, maybe his career.” It’s certainly great that this new mindset (along with his new sweeper) seems to have unlocked Prime Pivetta. But why exactly did it take Pivetta getting banished to the bullpen and Chris Martin being the one to ask him, “Hey man have you considered throwing strikes mores?” to finally elicit a change? This is a great article that's full of actual concrete examples of what the much-touted "run prevention unit" is up to. Whether it's the true pixie dust remains to be seen, of course, but it's enough to get me excited to see how much they can improve the pitchers that are already on the roster. A couple more nuggets: "[Bullpen coach Kevin] Walker estimates the group spent hundreds of hours this winter not only formulating plans for each pitcher on the 40-man roster — 22 in total — but also for 11 non-roster invitees. The planning process was lengthy and detailed. It was an enormous process that began with going under the hood to understand each pitcher’s profile, Bailey said. “What are the ideal ranges we need them to be in? Then what we’re trying to problem solve for, whether it be lefties or righties, whether it be a walk-rate issue or damage control or punch outs,” he added. “Stripping it down to that level and then from an arsenal standpoint, how do we solve those problems? Is it using a pitch more or is it adding a pitch? Is it subtracting a pitch?” And this: "Bailey instituted a three-pitch bullpen sequence as one way to hone the focus. Instead of just aiming to “throw strikes,” the drill creates competition. Bailey’s group tracks the number of strikes to avoid “mindless” bullpens, as he put it. It’s led to more efficient results. A pitcher wins an at-bat if he gets ahead 0-3 or 1-2 and loses the sequence if he falls behind 2-1 or 3-0. Right-hander Josh Winckowski is a fan of the drill. “I’ve found sometimes you get done with a bullpen and have a certain feeling you located the ball, but it was just a feeling,” he said. “Now it’s like, ‘OK I had 5 out of 6 today or 3 for 3. You can compare your feelings to the numbers now.” |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2024 10:04:24 GMT -5
It's not like every Boras client gets ridiculously overpaid. And no other team has signed him, right? It seems clear that his price is going to have to come down if he wants to sign a contract. And also, who's to say the Red Sox wouldn't be willing to pay 90-100 million.
With this tweet, by the way, and even the whiny Milliken one, there seems to be more smoke with Montgomery and the Red Sox than with any other team...
That's the point I was trying to make - why even engage with Jordan Montgomery if you're not willing to pay a median level offer for his services? Like he's not getting the Rodon deal that Boras is asking for, but you'd have to be incredibly naive to think he'd accept something like 3/60 or what not, right? (Granted, this is also the team that allegedly offered Xander a 4/90 extension offer.) I'd like to imagine this has all be a long con with a Good Cop-Bad Cop routine by Breslow where he's going to Boras and being like "Hey man, you know John. He gave me a tight budget. We can sign Jordan but it has to be at this price,"... but that level of foresight and subterfuge seems out of character with an ownership group that includes Tom Werner. Oh, gotcha. Yeah, apparently Montgomery's goal earlier in the offseason was to beat Nola's 7/172 deal, which is just patently ridiculous. Fangraphs crowdsource has him at 5/105 so there's lots of room to be well shy of Boras' asking price while still making an objectively reasonable, even generous, offer. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2024 10:08:54 GMT -5
With this tweet, by the way, and even the whiny Milliken one, there seems to be more smoke with Montgomery and the Red Sox than with any other team...
Yeah, everyone except the Cubs and Red Sox are actively burning calories to tell their fans not to expect anything, and now Bradford is specifically bringing up Montgomery. Kinda expecting it to happen at this point.
I think most people would've been happy with Montgomery, Giolito and a few popular trades at the start of the offseason, but something tells me everyone will stay mad if that's what happens.
Based on the Devers extension precedent, the angry fans will decide it was their own anger that forced the team to sign Montgomery and on that basis will give the team no credit for it. |
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Post by chr31ter on Feb 23, 2024 10:12:43 GMT -5
I want them to sign Montgomery too, but it is confusing to me that fans think they should simply just agree to Boras' asking price, which clearly is being shown by the actions of every team in MLB to be really high. If you wait for the asking price to come down too much, you open up the possibility that a team that hasn't finished in last place in three of the last four seasons will meet it. I'm not saying give Montgomery/Boras everything they want, but "wait for the price to come down and hope better teams don't notice" doesn't strike me as a winning strategy. |
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briam
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Post by briam on Feb 23, 2024 10:16:54 GMT -5
I’m not going to dismiss the budget talk. It’s clear ownership pivoted, the reports of the Red Sox needing to shed salary for Teoscar Hernandez have been verified. I also don’t think it’s coincidental the Red Sox are the only team that was in on YY that hasn’t leaked their offer. Pretty skeptical they were as in on him as we were led to believe. I also think it’s absurd to blindly criticize them for not caving to Boras’ unrealistic demands, now if he signs for 5-100 elsewhere I’d be pretty disappointed, but until then, let’s wait and see.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2024 10:21:42 GMT -5
I want them to sign Montgomery too, but it is confusing to me that fans think they should simply just agree to Boras' asking price, which clearly is being shown by the actions of every team in MLB to be really high. If you wait for the asking price to come down too much, you open up the possibility that a team that hasn't finished in last place in three of the last four seasons will meet it. I'm not saying give Montgomery/Boras everything they want, but "wait for the price to come down and hope better teams don't notice" doesn't strike me as a winning strategy.This is the "strategy" that literally all 30 teams have pursued to this point.
A good time to complain about the Red Sox not signing Montgomery, it seems to me, would be when the Red Sox fail to sign Montgomery.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 23, 2024 10:24:38 GMT -5
I’m not going to dismiss the budget talk. It’s clear ownership pivoted, the reports of the Red Sox needing to shed salary for Teoscar Hernandez have been verified. I also don’t think it’s coincidental the Red Sox are the only team that was in on YY that hasn’t leaked their offer. Pretty skeptical they were as in on him as we were led to believe. I also think it’s absurd to blindly criticize them for not caving to Boras’ unrealistic demands, now if he signs for 5-100 elsewhere I’d be pretty disappointed, but until then, let’s wait and see. Eh they've been verified by Teoscar as what the team told him/his agent. But separately, the team confirmed they were willing to spend more money than they have on Yamamoto. So it's not a hard budget cap, it's budget cap that varies depending on the talent they're able to add. If they have a different budget they're willing to go to to add Yamamoto vs. Montgomery, they reasonably have a different one for Montgomery vs. Hernandez. |
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 23, 2024 10:28:41 GMT -5
I want them to sign Montgomery too, but it is confusing to me that fans think they should simply just agree to Boras' asking price, which clearly is being shown by the actions of every team in MLB to be really high. If you wait for the asking price to come down too much, you open up the possibility that a team that hasn't finished in last place in three of the last four seasons will meet it. I'm not saying give Montgomery/Boras everything they want, but "wait for the price to come down and hope better teams don't notice" doesn't strike me as a winning strategy. It's really not too complicated; the Red Sox do not need Montgomery and do not think he is worth the current asking price. In other words, here are the Red Sox' preferred outcomes, in order of descending preference:
1. The price for Montgomery drops enough that they can sign him to a reasonable contract. 2. Another team signs Montgomery and/or he would rather take the Conforto gap year than sign a deal he's underwhelmed by. 3. Sign Montgomery to an unreasonable contract.
However, there is no logical way to arrive at Outcome 3, given Outcome 2, so it is not on the table. Either the price comes down enough where you feel good about signing him or you're totally fine to let him go elsewhere. Given the value in gauging the ability of our kids to start, especially Whitlock, I think this is a fine perspective to have.
That does not mean that I would be happy with a $206 million luxury tax salary come Opening Day, but signing Montgomery is not the only way to increase spending.
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Post by strike23 on Feb 23, 2024 10:30:37 GMT -5
That's the point I was trying to make - why even engage with Jordan Montgomery if you're not willing to pay a median level offer for his services? Like he's not getting the Rodon deal that Boras is asking for, but you'd have to be incredibly naive to think he'd accept something like 3/60 or what not, right? (Granted, this is also the team that allegedly offered Xander a 4/90 extension offer.) I'd like to imagine this has all be a long con with a Good Cop-Bad Cop routine by Breslow where he's going to Boras and being like "Hey man, you know John. He gave me a tight budget. We can sign Jordan but it has to be at this price,"... but that level of foresight and subterfuge seems out of character with an ownership group that includes Tom Werner. Oh, gotcha. Yeah, apparently Montgomery's goal earlier in the offseason was to beat Nola's 7/172 deal, which is just patently ridiculous. Fangraphs crowdsource has him at 5/105 so there's lots of room to be well shy of Boras' asking price while still making an objectively reasonable, even generous, offer.
The crowdsource number may be thrown off by being before his playoff run. Other estimates were MLBTR at 6/150 and Ben Clemens at 5/140. I think he'll ultimately sign for something like 6/140 or 5/125 but the number of people who seem to be wondering why the Red Sox haven't "just" signed him to 4/80 or 5/100 is way too high (more on twitter/reddit than here). As someone else said if he ultimately signs for that with another team I'd be pretty mad the Sox didn't beat it but until then I'm not rushing to beat the Nola or Rodon deals >7/172 or >6/162. On a happier note we have a game today! Does anybody know if it'll be carried on MLBTV? |
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 23, 2024 10:43:52 GMT -5
There has been a lot of smoke the last week for Montgomery
I’d do $94 million over 4 years or $75 million for 3 years for him
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Post by ortiz on Feb 23, 2024 10:47:14 GMT -5
That part definitely stood out, and makes you wonder about some sort of disconnect between the pitching staff-coaches-front office. The case study from last year is Nick Pivetta, who got demoted to the bullpen and as Cora related last September, had a Come to Jesus moment via Chris Martin: “He[Chris Martin]’s a big part of what Nick is doing right now. When he went over there [to the bullpen], he talked to him about being aggressive. Use your best pitches as much as possible. Don’t waste pitches. Attack. Be in attack mode… As we know, the previous year and earlier in the season, Nick was shying away from the zone. Whatever Chris told Nick, it changed his season, maybe his career.” It’s certainly great that this new mindset (along with his new sweeper) seems to have unlocked Prime Pivetta. But why exactly did it take Pivetta getting banished to the bullpen and Chris Martin being the one to ask him, “Hey man have you considered throwing strikes mores?” to finally elicit a change? Makes you wonder what Dave Bush and co were telling him? Feels to me it'd be kind of counter-intuitive to not pitch "aggressively" and obviously it's in a pitchers best interest to get ahead in the count so it strikes me as strange it took Bailey and co. to come in and say attack the zone and stop nibbling so much. Doesn't the Cora quote insinuate that it came from Bloom and Co.? |
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Post by ortiz on Feb 23, 2024 10:49:04 GMT -5
Re: Milliken's commentary... This is such silly framing. "Fit him into their budget." It's clearly not a question of there being a fixed budget that they would need to squeeze Montgomery into because they were obviously willing to expand their budget to pay for Yamamoto; they just don't think Montgomery is worth whatever his asking price is - which is evidently the case for all 30 MLB teams to this point, given that he remains unsigned. And it's just not "embarrassing" if they don't want to shell out nine figures for a 31 year old pitcher who projects for a 4 ERA. There are things about this offseason I'm annoyed about, but the failure to pay Boras' ransom for Montgomery (when no other team has either) isn't one of them. We don't actually know whether signing Yamamoto would have been a fit him into the budget issue, or if it would have led to additional salary dumping elsewhere. |
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cdj
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Posts: 15,819 
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Post by cdj on Feb 23, 2024 10:50:19 GMT -5
I’m not going to dismiss the budget talk. It’s clear ownership pivoted, the reports of the Red Sox needing to shed salary for Teoscar Hernandez have been verified. I also don’t think it’s coincidental the Red Sox are the only team that was in on YY that hasn’t leaked their offer. Pretty skeptical they were as in on him as we were led to believe. I also think it’s absurd to blindly criticize them for not caving to Boras’ unrealistic demands, now if he signs for 5-100 elsewhere I’d be pretty disappointed, but until then, let’s wait and see. This. The budget seems to absolutely be a real thing. Don’t sign Montgomery for like 6/160 or whatever Boras wants, but there shouldn’t be “they don’t have the money for him” talk when they’re so far below the threshold. Hell there’s even been talk that they’d need to shed Jansen to bring somebody else in this offseason I’m skeptical on how close they were to Yamamoto, there’s a reason they’re the only offer that hasn’t leaked. It’s probably embarrassing. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2024 11:09:33 GMT -5
To come back to that Bradford tweet...
The other really notable potential free agent pitching additions at this point are Clevinger and Lorenzen. And there was a little noise about the Red Sox and Clevinger earlier in the offseason, wasn't there? I bet he's the plan B if they don't sign Montgomery.
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 23, 2024 11:20:35 GMT -5
also yes people there is absolutely a budget, why would ownership go over the luxury tax limit for this current team?
Then you also want to give your self some flexibility for in season acquisitions or trades to take on money for better prospects
Bello
Montgomery
Giolito
Pivetta
Crawford
Nine of them are an ace but all could have FIPs of 4.20 or below
Makes the Bullpen deeep and honestly trading Jansen would only make sense if this were to happen
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 23, 2024 11:22:00 GMT -5
Yeah, everyone except the Cubs and Red Sox are actively burning calories to tell their fans not to expect anything, and now Bradford is specifically bringing up Montgomery. Kinda expecting it to happen at this point.
I think most people would've been happy with Montgomery, Giolito and a few popular trades at the start of the offseason, but something tells me everyone will stay mad if that's what happens.
Based on the Devers extension precedent, the angry fans will decide it was their own anger that forced the team to sign Montgomery and on that basis will give the team no credit for it. The difference between the scenarios is that no one was giving quotes to the media from the team showing their discontent over Devers. Devers and Jansen going to the media is a much different look. If the team is really feeling like this, this could get bad quick. |
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 23, 2024 11:35:38 GMT -5
They need a Montgomery signing as much for 2025 as 2024. They only have Bello and Crawford as penciled in starters under contract next year. They need a multi year deal with a dependable starter at some point to get off the yearly rotation carousel.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 23, 2024 11:40:01 GMT -5
also yes people there is absolutely a budget, why would ownership go over the luxury tax limit for this current team? Then you also want to give your self some flexibility for in season acquisitions or trades to take on money for better prospects Bello Montgomery Giolito Pivetta Crawford Nine of them are an ace but all could have FIPs of 4.20 or below Makes the Bullpen deeep and honestly trading Jansen would only make sense if this were to happen I think everyone accepts that they aren't going over the tax line at this point - that's not what people are talking about. The budget being set tens of millions of dollars below the tax line is the shocking revelation of this offseason. |
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 23, 2024 11:50:53 GMT -5
Oh, gotcha. Yeah, apparently Montgomery's goal earlier in the offseason was to beat Nola's 7/172 deal, which is just patently ridiculous. Fangraphs crowdsource has him at 5/105 so there's lots of room to be well shy of Boras' asking price while still making an objectively reasonable, even generous, offer.
The crowdsource number may be thrown off by being before his playoff run. Other estimates were MLBTR at 6/150 and Ben Clemens at 5/140. I think he'll ultimately sign for something like 6/140 or 5/125 but the number of people who seem to be wondering why the Red Sox haven't "just" signed him to 4/80 or 5/100 is way too high (more on twitter/reddit than here). As someone else said if he ultimately signs for that with another team I'd be pretty mad the Sox didn't beat it but until then I'm not rushing to beat the Nola or Rodon deals >7/172 or >6/162. On a happier note we have a game today! Does anybody know if it'll be carried on MLBTV? It could be the other way around, right? Teams aren’t gonna let a good October skew their valuation that much these days, but fans probably will. With the amount of data that goes into these projections and valuations, a strong postseason can only change the outlook so much. I think that’s backed up with how everything has gone for the Boras guys. Yes, Montgomery and Snell had great walk years. But given their age and track record, there’s a very good chance these are the best years of their respective careers. Bellinger has struggled for a long time at this point, and while he was productive last year, the underlying numbers don’t make a very convincing case that he’s out of the woods. Chapman, in theory, should be a safe bet given his defense and power, but he’s got real swing and miss issues. At age 30, can you trust him to remain productive going forward, or will he turn into Chris Davis once he loses a little bat speed? I’m not getting into a bidding war for any of those guys. It really demonstrates how this crop of free agents is really tough for Boras to do his thing with. Teams are going to be falling over themselves to give Juan Soto the biggest contract in franchise history next year. That’s a situation where you can make GMs sweat and get them to give you what you want. When your guys all have real warts, which all four of his big dogs do, it’s hard to make demands and get teams to fold for you. Nobody is overextending themselves for Jordan Montgomery. Giving him 7/175 or Blake Snell 9/270 would be the type of move that gets a team mired in mediocrity. |
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 23, 2024 11:54:26 GMT -5
They need a Montgomery signing as much for 2025 as 2024. They only have Bello and Crawford as penciled in starters under contract next year. They need a multi year deal with a dependable starter at some point to get off the yearly rotation carousel. Disagree. Giolito is not a lock to be gone, and Houck, Winckowski, and Whitlock could be starting options. SP.com gives Fitts a late 2024 ETA, so he could be in the mix as well for 2025. Then there's the fact that they will have a ton of room under the luxury tax (~$31 million under so far this year, tax line goes up by $4 million, Sale/Turner falling off the books will save $21+ million, Jansen already has an heir apparent and will save $16 million next year, etc.) and basically nothing to spend it on other than SPs, given the state of the lineup and bullpen and the likely 2025 farm contributions. And especially if they sell at the deadline this year they could add other pieces to the mix for 2025 and beyond.
Meanwhile, Montgomery is 31. In theory 2024 should be his most productive season on any new deal and he should slowly decline from there. If 2025 looks like a more promising year, why not sign one or more legit aces from the 2025 class (Burnes, Fried, Buehler, Cole (possibly), Wheeler, etc.) such that their ceiling is higher and their first, most valuable season is more likely to align with a team that is a favorite for a playoff spot? Not to mention that the Sox could look to bring back guys like Giolito (he he walks) or Pivetta, depending on how the year goes, and in the case of Giolito, they would have the inside track to retain him if he opts out, because he would certainly be QO'd.
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Post by sxfan on Feb 23, 2024 11:54:35 GMT -5
I still maintain the opinion that I like next year's free agent pitching class a lot more than this years. I want no part of Montgomery for 20+ million for multiple years and I don't think the Sox thankfully want that either.
Put the money towards Bello, Pivetta, and maybe Casas in extensions. Best we can hope for is a creative trade involving Duran or Rafaela to get a starter.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2024 11:57:29 GMT -5
Re: Milliken's commentary... This is such silly framing. "Fit him into their budget." It's clearly not a question of there being a fixed budget that they would need to squeeze Montgomery into because they were obviously willing to expand their budget to pay for Yamamoto; they just don't think Montgomery is worth whatever his asking price is - which is evidently the case for all 30 MLB teams to this point, given that he remains unsigned. And it's just not "embarrassing" if they don't want to shell out nine figures for a 31 year old pitcher who projects for a 4 ERA. There are things about this offseason I'm annoyed about, but the failure to pay Boras' ransom for Montgomery (when no other team has either) isn't one of them. We don't actually know whether signing Yamamoto would have been a fit him into the budget issue, or if it would have led to additional salary dumping elsewhere. If you're absolutely determined to believe that the team is constraining itself to a budget that's like $20 million under the LTT no matter what, they could still sign Montgomery for $26 million and trade away Jansen for a net cost of $10 million and still meet that self-imposed budget constraint. So again, the issue isn't that they can't "fit him into their budget," it's that they don't want to pay his current asking price.
They also could have forgone the Sale trade and Hendriks signing, which added $22 million to this year's payroll almost solely for the sake of future value, if they really wanted Montgomery despite their supposed budget limitations. They clearly just don't prioritize him that much.
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