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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 23, 2024 12:21:03 GMT -5
I still maintain the opinion that I like next year's free agent pitching class a lot more than this years. I want no part of Montgomery for 20+ million for multiple years and I don't think the Sox thankfully want that either. Put the money towards Bello, Pivetta, and maybe Casas in extensions. Best we can hope for is a creative trade involving Duran or Rafaela to get a starter. This is exactly where I am. You can only argue so much with results, but the underlying numbers do not make a very convincing case that Jordan Montgomery would be the best starting pitcher on the 2024 Boston Red Sox. If they’re going to invest big money into a starting pitcher, I personally would prefer that pitcher to be someone I’m fully confident will outpitch Nick Pivetta and a healthy Garrett Whitlock. |
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 23, 2024 12:34:13 GMT -5
I don’t like being so far below the LTT, but I also don’t think they need to spend just to spend this year. I think they have resigned themselves to a “bridge year” in 2024 and another lottery-type draft pick after this season with an eye on being more competitive starting in 2025.
I also don’t like the idea of giving a huge contract to a pitcher in March and limiting his acclimation to the new team. There is a big benefit to signing a guy like Ohtani well before ST and doing all the media events and getting him on a set schedule. If they sign Montgomery in a few weeks, I feel like they are playing catch-up with him and it hurts their investment for 2024.
Also, is there any precedent for 4-5 of the top 10ish free agents still being unsigned on March 1st? Is there any whisper of collusion here? It just seems odd and nobody really seems to be in a hurry to sign any of these guys. I’m still trying to figure out where they all land…
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 23, 2024 12:35:34 GMT -5
Who was the last player the Red Sox signed who they publicly expressed interest in prior to signing? |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 23, 2024 12:35:59 GMT -5
I still maintain the opinion that I like next year's free agent pitching class a lot more than this years. I want no part of Montgomery for 20+ million for multiple years and I don't think the Sox thankfully want that either. Put the money towards Bello, Pivetta, and maybe Casas in extensions. Best we can hope for is a creative trade involving Duran or Rafaela to get a starter. This is exactly where I am. You can only argue so much with results, but the underlying numbers do not make a very convincing case that Jordan Montgomery would be the best starting pitcher on the 2024 Boston Red Sox. If they’re going to invest big money into a starting pitcher, I personally would prefer that pitcher to be someone I’m fully confident will outpitch Nick Pivetta and a healthy Garrett Whitlock. I mean Steamer and ZIPs both project Monty to be better than any other pitcher currently on the team. ZIPS: 168.2 IP, 3.84 ERA, 4.05 FIP... with a 2.9 WAR (which they have as 25th in baseball - they have him limit slightly above Zac Gallen and trade-machine thirst-trap Jesus Luzardo) Steamer: 190.2 IP, 3.94 ERA, 4.01 FIP... with a 3.2 WAR (21st in baseball - tied with Corbin Burnes....) I don't want to de-rail the Spring Training discussion - is it okay to make a "Jordan Montgomery Rumors & Courtship Thread" |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 23, 2024 12:51:05 GMT -5
Since when do the Red Sox have too much pitching?
I like Whitlock a lot and am enthused to see what he can do with the changes to conditioning that he did.
That said his track record for staying healthy is not good. Houck has still failed to establish himself as a slam dunk starter.
I'm looking forward to seeing Piveta pitch as I think hes primed for a career year, but he has yet to out it together.
That said, injuries happen. Underperformance happens. Montgomery's presence allows for a much deeper stacked bullpen.
If the Sox dont want to ridiculously overpay for him, fine, but if they're holding out for absolute value and lose him they're stupid to do so.
I dont care if they overpay him a bit. The Sox need him more than a lot of other teams do.
The Sox are a .500ish team now as it stands and his addition could tilt them toward 85 wins or more even as his presence not only might mean 2 or 3 extra wins, but that the pen is stronger as well which could tack on some extra circumstantial wins by Cora not having to burn out relievers more often in high leverage situations as the ripple effect would be a deeper bullpen, with of course less Criswell starts.
It's nice that the Sox got Fitts from NY but I sure as hell wouldn't rely on him this season and at the moment he's a back end starter projection until he proves otherwise. Montgomery is a solid 3rd starter who was a solid 2nd starter last year and has strack record of providing innings while keeping an ERA under 4.
Deeper pitching staffs give teams more chances to win, which isnt exactly news.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 23, 2024 13:22:29 GMT -5
I wasn't super high on Montgomery going into free agency, I viewed him as a solid guy who has been his best the last couple of seasons. He's 31 years old (a negative for a guy looking for a longer deal) however he doesn't have a ton of innings on his arm. I viewed him as a guy who would slot either 3 or 4 in the rotation behind Sale and Bello and possibly Pivetta. With the addition of Giolito, I was even less excited about adding Montgomery, but with the trade of Sale now believe adding Montgomery makes a lot of sense, he'd be a nice add to split up all of the RHP, and could ultimately slot in as an experienced guy who will take the ball and keep the Sox in ballgames. He would likely replace one of Whitlock or Houck in the rotation both of whom are far less likely to take the ball as much as him or keep the Sox in as many games as him. As much as people talk about the Sox having a budget, I feel like they simply do not want to pay drastically more for a player (years and dollars) than they value that player. I'm hoping that, if Montgomery's price (years and dollars) gets closer to what they value him at, that they get it done (even if it is a year and $20M) more than the price they want to pay for him). If I'm the Sox, I'd value Monty at 3 years with a $20M AAV, so if Boras is saying 5-6 and $150-$175, I'm saying he doesn't fit in my budget, but if he would bite at maybe 4 years $100M I think the Sox should go over what they are comfortable with, and despite all the reports I believe they would.
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 23, 2024 13:27:08 GMT -5
They need a Montgomery signing as much for 2025 as 2024. They only have Bello and Crawford as penciled in starters under contract next year. They need a multi year deal with a dependable starter at some point to get off the yearly rotation carousel. Disagree. Giolito is not a lock to be gone, and Houck, Winckowski, and Whitlock could be starting options. SP.com gives Fitts a late 2024 ETA, so he could be in the mix as well for 2025.
.... Gioilito is not a lock to be any better than he has for the last couple of years, Houck, Winckowski, and Whitlock may all be confirmed as the relievers/swing arms they're currently slotted as, and Fitts doesn't currently project to out-pitch any of them. Yes, all of these guys have upside potential of contributing to the starting rotation, but huskies has a real point about the 2025 rotation likely needing at least as much help as 2024. |
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Feb 23, 2024 13:28:05 GMT -5
If I were the front office, I'd be doing my best Will Smith impression by barking "keep our name out of your mouth" to any agent/league source/non-Boston beat insider who keeps bringing up Jordan Montgomery in the context of the team. It's pretty clear he's not signing here; I'm not sure he's the right guy anyway. But it keeps riling up the fan base when there's probably some pretty good storylines in the Fort that we could otherwise be paying attention to.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 23, 2024 13:30:59 GMT -5
Who was the last player the Red Sox signed who they publicly expressed interest in prior to signing? I think Kluber. |
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Post by lancect on Feb 23, 2024 13:53:53 GMT -5
Makes you wonder what Dave Bush and co were telling him? Feels to me it'd be kind of counter-intuitive to not pitch "aggressively" and obviously it's in a pitchers best interest to get ahead in the count so it strikes me as strange it took Bailey and co. to come in and say attack the zone and stop nibbling so much. Doesn't the Cora quote insinuate that it came from Bloom and Co.? Also wonder how Brasier was fixed so easily by the Dodgers. Didn't seem like the last pitching coaches were creative, the way Breslow and Bailey seem to be. |
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 23, 2024 14:13:14 GMT -5
Disagree. Giolito is not a lock to be gone, and Houck, Winckowski, and Whitlock could be starting options. SP.com gives Fitts a late 2024 ETA, so he could be in the mix as well for 2025.
.... Gioilito is not a lock to be any better than he has for the last couple of years, Houck, Winckowski, and Whitlock may all be confirmed as the relievers/swing arms they're currently slotted as, and Fitts doesn't currently project to out-pitch any of them. Yes, all of these guys have upside potential of contributing to the starting rotation, but huskies has a real point about the 2025 rotation likely needing at least as much help as 2024. It's unlikely that all of these guys will be legit starting options in 2025, but it's even less likely that none of them will be. Houck has already proven he is a capable starter; he just may be a better fit in the pen given his splits and issues getting deep into games. Whitlock obviously has the talent too, but has been too injured lately to get an extended shot. And Winck was mediocre in his first shot at the rotation, but that was 14 starts in his age 24 season, so the door is far from closed. It's pessimistic to the point of borderline disingenuous to write these guys off as reliever/swingman types. Giolito was a solid regular the last two years except for his collapse amidst a divorce and two team changes after the trade deadline last year and he is still only 29. No one is a lock for anything, but his realistic floor is ~160 whelming innings. It would be shocking if he can't hold a rotation spot; the question that's more likely to be relevant is whether he's good enough to opt out. This also ignores my other points about how we have ample avenues to bring in talent. |
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 23, 2024 14:17:31 GMT -5
It's all good and well to emphasize throwing strikes but the real issue is throwing strikes in the zone that aren't hittable. Cory Kluber seemingly through a lot of pitches in the strike zone last year but a good number of them were meatballs that were crushed.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 23, 2024 15:13:15 GMT -5
This is exactly where I am. You can only argue so much with results, but the underlying numbers do not make a very convincing case that Jordan Montgomery would be the best starting pitcher on the 2024 Boston Red Sox. If they’re going to invest big money into a starting pitcher, I personally would prefer that pitcher to be someone I’m fully confident will outpitch Nick Pivetta and a healthy Garrett Whitlock. I mean Steamer and ZIPs both project Monty to be better than any other pitcher currently on the team. ZIPS: 168.2 IP, 3.84 ERA, 4.05 FIP... with a 2.9 WAR (which they have as 25th in baseball - they have him limit slightly above Zac Gallen and trade-machine thirst-trap Jesus Luzardo) Steamer: 190.2 IP, 3.94 ERA, 4.01 FIP... with a 3.2 WAR (21st in baseball - tied with Corbin Burnes....) I don't want to de-rail the Spring Training discussion - is it okay to make a "Jordan Montgomery Rumors & Courtship Thread" I’m not saying it’s likely. Just likelier than I’m super comfortable with given what he’ll cost. And I’m not sure that he comes with the 5+ WAR upside I’d like a guy making big money to come with. If they were to go crazy and gave Max Fried 7/200, I’d still wonder how well it would age but I can see him giving them 180 innings of sub-3.00 ERA pitching at some point during that contract. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 23, 2024 15:31:35 GMT -5
Boras is simply asking for too much. E-Rod is Montgomery best comparable and he is at best just as good as ERod and ERod is a tiny bit younger
ERod signed a 4 year deal worth $80 million with an option year. There is no basis for him expecting 6 for 150
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 23, 2024 15:38:53 GMT -5
Boras is simply asking for too much. E-Rod is Montgomery best comparable and he is at best just as good as ERod and ERod is a tiny bit younger ERod signed a 4 year deal worth $80 million with an option year. There is no basis for him expecting 6 for 150 If we just use their last 3 full seasons for each they are actually really similar in terms of overall WAR. However, that means 2021,2022,2023 for Montgomey, and 2019, 2021, 2023 for E-Rod. Also Montgomery's best year in that stretch was 2023 and E-Rod's was 2019 and that is why Montgomery should be paid substantially more. |
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Feb 23, 2024 15:49:00 GMT -5
I still maintain the opinion that I like next year's free agent pitching class a lot more than this years. I want no part of Montgomery for 20+ million for multiple years and I don't think the Sox thankfully want that either. Put the money towards Bello, Pivetta, and maybe Casas in extensions. Best we can hope for is a creative trade involving Duran or Rafaela to get a starter. This is where I'm at now. I've also talked myself into Whitlock potentially being a legit starter, if he's healthy. Rather just play this season out, hand the bag to Max Fried and let him pitch to Kyle Teel for the next half decade. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 23, 2024 15:49:03 GMT -5
Boras is simply asking for too much. E-Rod is Montgomery best comparable and he is at best just as good as ERod and ERod is a tiny bit younger ERod signed a 4 year deal worth $80 million with an option year. There is no basis for him expecting 6 for 150 If we just use their last 3 full seasons for each they are actually really similar in terms of overall WAR. However, that means 2021,2022,2023 for Montgomey, and 2019, 2021, 2023 for E-Rod. Also Montgomery's best year in that stretch was 2023 and E-Rod's was 2019 and that is why Montgomery should be paid substantially more. Neither is substantially worth more than the other Careers they are similar, last year similar, 2024 projections similar, age similar. Only thing that is not similar is 1 signed for 4 years $80 million and the other one wants 6 years $150 million and hopefully not wondering why he is still not signed as spring training starts |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 23, 2024 16:00:08 GMT -5
If we just use their last 3 full seasons for each they are actually really similar in terms of overall WAR. However, that means 2021,2022,2023 for Montgomey, and 2019, 2021, 2023 for E-Rod. Also Montgomery's best year in that stretch was 2023 and E-Rod's was 2019 and that is why Montgomery should be paid substantially more. Neither is substantially worth more than the other Careers they are similar, last year similar, 2024 projections similar, age similar. Only thing that is not similar is 1 signed for 4 years $80 million and the other one wants 6 years $150 million and hopefully not wondering why he is still not signed as spring training starts Are we all just going to gloss over the fact that the last three seasons E-Rod has made a total of 74 starts while Montgomery has made 94 starts? I'd have taken E-Rod in a second on the deal he got but to discount their durability would be leaving out a fairly large part of the equation. I'm not saying Montgomery is worth double what E-Rod got but I would say he's worth more. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2024 16:09:48 GMT -5
ematz' comment on p. 6 of the samizdat free agency thread was typical of the early Montgomery takes:
Somewhere along the way Montgomery got branded as a top-tier SP, and Boras is certainly trying to sell him as one. But people weren't thinking that way originally and it's not clear why views should have changed, notwithstanding his nice postseason run (despite middling peripherals).
I do think he deserves to get a little more than EduardoRod, but not that much more.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 23, 2024 16:46:39 GMT -5
1) Boras, half are "his" guys.
2) You can bet on it. Soon as nobody falls for guys like Snell wanting 300m? Boras's fallback option is combo of spout lies and subjugate.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 23, 2024 16:58:15 GMT -5
To come back to that Bradford tweet...
The other really notable potential free agent pitching additions at this point are Clevinger and Lorenzen. And there was a little noise about the Red Sox and Clevinger earlier in the offseason, wasn't there? I bet he's the plan B if they don't sign Montgomery.
My attempt at Kremlinology is that this leak is meant for an audience of Jordan Montgomery to maybe get him to push to get a deal done |
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 23, 2024 17:04:29 GMT -5
Boras is probably using the Red Sox as a foil which has been the case all off-season. (He probably got Gio Urshela another half million from the Tigers claiming the Red Sox were closing in on signing him--lol) Montgomery is going to sign with a team no expects (hello, Dodgers).
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 23, 2024 17:36:06 GMT -5
Boras is probably using the Red Sox as a foil which has been the case all off-season. (He probably got Gio Urshela another half million from the Tigers claiming the Red Sox were closing in on signing him--lol) Montgomery is going to sign with a team no expects (hello, Dodgers). I mean Gio Urshela is repped by Rep 1 Sports. Is the suggestion that Scott Boras was helping Urshela get more money from the Tigers by leaking to Chris Cotillo of MassLive that the Red Sox had mild interest, and he was doing this all pro-bono? 😁 Take with a grain of salt, but Heyman writing today that the Red Sox have “had zoom calls with top free agents”, not long after recently suggesting the Red Sox spoke with Montgomery two weeks ago. That obviously leaves a lot unsaid. Again, it seems contradictory to take the effort to court possible high priced free agents in one moment, and then in the other say that the budget is tight… |
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Post by sxfan on Feb 23, 2024 22:47:20 GMT -5
I still maintain the opinion that I like next year's free agent pitching class a lot more than this years. I want no part of Montgomery for 20+ million for multiple years and I don't think the Sox thankfully want that either. Put the money towards Bello, Pivetta, and maybe Casas in extensions. Best we can hope for is a creative trade involving Duran or Rafaela to get a starter. This is where I'm at now. I've also talked myself into Whitlock potentially being a legit starter, if he's healthy. Rather just play this season out, hand the bag to Max Fried and let him pitch to Kyle Teel for the next half decade. Max Fried seems like target number one in the next 2 years for the Sox. No LH starter in the rotation and he's the most talented coming in the next 3 years. I also think the Sox want to give Whitlock one last shot after his weight gain of 10-15 pounds this off-season. If it blows up in their faces, well the Sox weren't expected to compete this year anyways. |
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ephus
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Post by ephus on Feb 24, 2024 9:05:37 GMT -5
Hate to break up the free agency talk, but is anyone still here who is down at the Fort - or is headed down and can chime in on “much improved” defense from Valdez? It is impossible to understate what a big deal that would mean for team depth.
Also interested in hearing and other surprises you’ve seen so far in camp.
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