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The Next Great Red Sox Team?
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Post by manfred on Mar 14, 2024 14:34:16 GMT -5
Isn’t a small sample because he was being protected a bit? That would suggest the lefties he faced tended not to be elite lefties. I say this only to suggest you could as easily ask what happens if you add 3 or more ABs against top lefties… as opposed to the 3 dink singles. You're making my argument for me. If adding or subtracting just a few results significantly changes the line either way that's a measure of how meaningful - or not - the sample is. What I'm more interested in is a realistic assessment of what that sample-size means in those narratives. Why not educate readers? As for whether he was protected, how do we know what he would have done "un-protected". That's the same sort of conundrum. I’m agreeing, yeah. You gave the best case, and I was proposing a not so great case.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 14, 2024 16:14:40 GMT -5
Almost all agree pitching is the whole. Why not take advantage at what is probably a depressed market and pen Montgomery in as your #3 starter for the next 4 seasons. Takes a tremendous amount of pressure off everyone.
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Post by bishop on Mar 14, 2024 17:21:13 GMT -5
Almost all agree pitching is the whole. Why not take advantage at what is probably a depressed market and pen Montgomery in as your #3 starter for the next 4 seasons. Takes a tremendous amount of pressure off everyone. It sounds like the reason is he wants a longer deal that would probably be a drag on payroll when the others are ready. (But I also have no clue what that plan is if he's also very anti-Yankees, would love to sign him if he and Boras capitulate and agree to a deal that works for us.) Overall the pitching development has been a bit of an issue this century but the actual situation right now isn't bad at all IMO. I know many are skeptical Kutter can repeat it since he had no minor league pedigree but how many teams have 2 homegrown pre-arb starters as good as Bello and Crawford were last year, like 3? Once you add in Fitts and Sandlin and we approach the end of the period where the lost IFA year hurt us the minors pitching depth seems fine too - idk if any specific one will pop but we have enough interesting arms I'm hopeful 1-2 do and suddenly you may have 3-4 rotation spots pretty cheap which should give even the new FSG ammo to pay top of the market for an ace. Like others said earlier in the offseason the Red Sox problem isn't depth and we're flush with 2 WAR guys, we need those 4+ WAR guys you build around. Lot of eggs being put in the Roman/Mayer/Teel(/Cedanne? Abreu? Grissom?) basket to be those 4 WAR guys but idk if that's even necessary, even if they are "just" 2 WAR guys but that's your starting SS/C/CF/RF at $1m/y each they've got the $$$ to add an ace, or a monster bat, or both. I'm also curious what people's bar is for the next "great" Red Sox team? Postseason success seems so flukish and we've had such a boom/bust cycle the last 15 years. I think back to back 90 win seasons (or maybe 3 in a row?) would qualify for me even if we flame out in the 1st round of the playoffs. Which I guess makes 2016-2018 the ideal? 2021 was fun as heck but I'm not sure I'd call it a great team, or at least not a sustainable one?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 16, 2024 9:51:48 GMT -5
No on Montgomery for me at this point. He'll get a late start to the season and probably have trouble catching up. The first year of his contract - which is supposed to be among the productive ones on a long-term contract - could be a waste. Boras can pound sand. He got burned and my schadenfreude is in overdrive.
Otherwise:
1B - Casas 2B - Grissom SS - MM (Hoping Story has a couple of decent years in '24 and '25, making himself Saleable.) 3B - Devers (He won't be a DH yet by '26.)
The OF and DH are complicated because building the NGRST requires unwinding some of the extreme LHH lean that we have now. That's going to get harder because the top three propsects, MM, Teel, and Roman Anthony, all hit LHH.
I'd love to see Yoshi make himself Saleable. He's a roster clogger. They'd still have to sub out either Duran or Abreu. Either one could fail and no longer be viable as a starter. We'd all prefer that that not happen, of course. It'd be great if they both excel and one can be a pot sweetener in a trade for much-needed SP.
So, I'd like to see:
LF - Duran or Abreu CF - Little Raffy RF - Anthony OF4 - A RHH lefty masher DH - A productive RHH. There's always at least one older guy available on the FA market.
C - Teel and a RHH platoon
They'd need another solid RHH platoon bat, preferably one who can play 1B and or 3B Bobby D.?! Yorke?
P - They'll have to spend big, either for a FA like Max Fried, or trade for a cost-controlled guy (unlikely, IMO, because it rarely happpens) and then extend him into his FA years.
After that, it's Bello, Crawford and whoever they can get to piece together the 4 and 5 spots.
Closer - Houck Multi-inning guy - Whitlock
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2024 10:13:13 GMT -5
No on Montgomery for me at this point. He'll get a late start to the season and probably have trouble catching up. The first year of his contract - which is supposed to be among the productive ones on a long-term contract - could be a waste. Boras can pound sand. He got burned and my schadenfreude is in overdrive. Otherwise: 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom SS - MM (Hoping Story has a couple of decent years in '24 and '25, making himself Saleable.) 3B - Devers (He won't be a DH yet by '26.) The OF and DH are complicated because building the NGRST requires unwinding some of the extreme LHH lean that we have now. That's going to get harder because the top three propsects, MM, Teel, and Roman Anthony, all hit LHH. I'd love to see Yoshi make himself Saleable. He's a roster clogger. They'd still have to sub out either Duran or Abreu. Either one could fail and no longer be viable as a starter. We'd all prefer that that not happen, of course. It'd be great if they both excel and one can be a pot sweetener in a trade for much-needed SP. So, I'd like to see: LF - Duran or Abreu CF - Little Raffy RF - Anthony OF4 - A RHH lefty masher DH - A productive RHH. There's always at least one older guy available on the FA market. C - Teel and a RHH platoon They'd need another solid RHH platoon bat, preferably one who can play 1B and or 3B Bobby D.?! Yorke? P - They'll have to spend big, either for a FA like Max Fried, or trade for a cost-controlled guy (unlikely, IMO, because it rarely happpens) and then extend him into his FA years. After that, it's Bello, Crawford and whoever they can get to piece together the 4 and 5 spots. Closer - Houck Multi-inning guy - Whitlock This whole roster would have a payroll of about $130 million in 2026 even without trading Yoshida. The first luxury tax threshold will be $244 million. Wonder what they'll be able to buy for $100+ million? In theory they could splurge on, say, two aces, a couple of elite bullpen arms, and an everyday bat without breaking a sweat.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 16, 2024 10:23:59 GMT -5
This whole roster would have a payroll of about $130 million in 2026 even without trading Yoshida. The first luxury tax threshold will be $244 million. Wonder what they'll be able to buy for $100+ million? In theory they could splurge on, say, two aces, a couple of elite bullpen arms, and an everyday bat without breaking a sweat. Also Roki Sasaki will be homegrown on a technicality.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 16, 2024 10:26:11 GMT -5
No on Montgomery for me at this point. He'll get a late start to the season and probably have trouble catching up. The first year of his contract - which is supposed to be among the productive ones on a long-term contract - could be a waste. Boras can pound sand. He got burned and my schadenfreude is in overdrive. Otherwise: 1B - Casas 2B - Grissom SS - MM (Hoping Story has a couple of decent years in '24 and '25, making himself Saleable.) 3B - Devers (He won't be a DH yet by '26.) The OF and DH are complicated because building the NGRST requires unwinding some of the extreme LHH lean that we have now. That's going to get harder because the top three propsects, MM, Teel, and Roman Anthony, all hit LHH. I'd love to see Yoshi make himself Saleable. He's a roster clogger. They'd still have to sub out either Duran or Abreu. Either one could fail and no longer be viable as a starter. We'd all prefer that that not happen, of course. It'd be great if they both excel and one can be a pot sweetener in a trade for much-needed SP. So, I'd like to see: LF - Duran or Abreu CF - Little Raffy RF - Anthony OF4 - A RHH lefty masher DH - A productive RHH. There's always at least one older guy available on the FA market. C - Teel and a RHH platoon They'd need another solid RHH platoon bat, preferably one who can play 1B and or 3B Bobby D.?! Yorke? P - They'll have to spend big, either for a FA like Max Fried, or trade for a cost-controlled guy (unlikely, IMO, because it rarely happpens) and then extend him into his FA years. After that, it's Bello, Crawford and whoever they can get to piece together the 4 and 5 spots. Closer - Houck Multi-inning guy - Whitlock This whole roster would have a payroll of about $130 million in 2026 even without trading Yoshida. The first luxury tax threshold will be $244 million. Wonder what they'll be able to buy for $100+ million? In theory they could splurge on, say, two aces, a couple of elite bullpen arms, and an everyday bat without breaking a sweat. When pointed out as you are in this post you can see what the Sox have been building towards. I'm not going to claim it let's them off the hook for the poor performances in recent seasons as it doesn't but the future does look bright none the less. It would go a long way for them if at least one of fitts, sandlin, gonzalez and perales can be a viable SP.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 16, 2024 11:04:34 GMT -5
I’m gonna treat this like a stock picking exercise, near MLB players under team control for a while that I’m buying or selling based on where their current perception is and where I think they will be:
Buys: - Story - Devers - Mayer - Whitlock - Casas
Sells: - Grissom - Duran
Holds: - Bello - Houck - Teel
Many other players I’m not sure about. Yoshida, Anthony and Crawford I debated between buy and hold, Rafaela between sell and hold. Wong, Aubreu, Valdez, etc. I punted on.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2024 11:13:30 GMT -5
I’m gonna treat this like a stock picking exercise, near MLB players under team control for a while that I’m buying or selling based on where their current perception is and where I think they will be: Buys: - Story - Devers - Mayer - Whitlock - Casas Sells: - Grissom - Duran Holds: - Bello - Houck - Teel Many other players I’m not sure about. Yoshida, Anthony and Crawford I debated between buy and hold, Rafaela between sell and hold. Wong, Aubreu, Valdez, etc. I punted on. I don't think I have a very good perception of what people's perceptions of Grissom are. What's your perception of that?
Without really thinking about it much, I'm personally anticipating a steady 2 WAR/season or so out of him.
(In the spirit of this exercise I would buy on Wong and Valdez and sell on Abreu. Which is funny on Abreu, because I was high on him ever since they got him but then he had that hot streak when he first came up to the majors, which didn't change my own expectations that much but sure seemed to for a lot of other people.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 16, 2024 11:37:47 GMT -5
I’m gonna treat this like a stock picking exercise, near MLB players under team control for a while that I’m buying or selling based on where their current perception is and where I think they will be: Buys: - Story - Devers - Mayer - Whitlock - Casas Sells: - Grissom - Duran Holds: - Bello - Houck - Teel Many other players I’m not sure about. Yoshida, Anthony and Crawford I debated between buy and hold, Rafaela between sell and hold. Wong, Aubreu, Valdez, etc. I punted on. I don't think I have a very good perception of what people's perceptions of Grissom are. What's your perception of that?
Without really thinking about it much, I'm personally anticipating a steady 2 WAR/season or so out of him.
(In the spirit of this exercise I would buy on Wong and Valdez and sell on Abreu. Which is funny on Abreu, because I was high on him ever since they got him but then he had that hot streak when he first came up to the majors, which didn't change my own expectations that much but sure seemed to for a lot of other people.)
I tend to agree with your takes on Wong/Valdez/Abreu, particularly for Wong if we are trending towards electronic strike zones. For Grissom it’s more that it feels to me like people are very confident he is the long term answer at 2B, I might be off on that sense. But to me, I’m expecting about 2 WAR similar to you, I just think I might be placing a higher percent chance on the downside scenario than most here are, and I also still think Yorke and Valdez are very much in that competition too. I just think Grissom has a bit of shiny-new-toy-syndrome for many.
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Post by manfred on Mar 16, 2024 11:40:35 GMT -5
I’m gonna treat this like a stock picking exercise, near MLB players under team control for a while that I’m buying or selling based on where their current perception is and where I think they will be: Buys: - Story - Devers - Mayer - Whitlock - Casas Sells: - Grissom - Duran Holds: - Bello - Houck - Teel Many other players I’m not sure about. Yoshida, Anthony and Crawford I debated between buy and hold, Rafaela between sell and hold. Wong, Aubreu, Valdez, etc. I punted on. I don't think I have a very good perception of what people's perceptions of Grissom are. What's your perception of that?
Without really thinking about it much, I'm personally anticipating a steady 2 WAR/season or so out of him.
(In the spirit of this exercise I would buy on Wong and Valdez and sell on Abreu. Which is funny on Abreu, because I was high on him ever since they got him but then he had that hot streak when he first came up to the majors, which didn't change my own expectations that much but sure seemed to for a lot of other people.)
I agree on Wong. I always feel like I like him more when I see him than I would if I just read his stats. Decent speed, cannon arm, surprising pop. I’m big on buying Grissom. Guy has basically never *not* hit. I’m also buying Duran. His struggles appear to have driven him to make adjustments. I like his maturity. He seems like he learned his lesson. Based on expectations I’d sell Story. I think his O will be frustrating, so he’ll have to be all- world defensively. I just think the margin for error is slimmer than people make it out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2024 12:51:12 GMT -5
I don't think I have a very good perception of what people's perceptions of Grissom are. What's your perception of that? Without really thinking about it much, I'm personally anticipating a steady 2 WAR/season or so out of him. (In the spirit of this exercise I would buy on Wong and Valdez and sell on Abreu. Which is funny on Abreu, because I was high on him ever since they got him but then he had that hot streak when he first came up to the majors, which didn't change my own expectations that much but sure seemed to for a lot of other people.)
I tend to agree with your takes on Wong/Valdez/Abreu, particularly for Wong if we are trending towards electronic strike zones. For Grissom it’s more that it feels to me like people are very confident he is the long term answer at 2B, I might be off on that sense. But to me, I’m expecting about 2 WAR similar to you, I just think I might be placing a higher percent chance on the downside scenario than most here are, and I also still think Yorke and Valdez are very much in that competition too. I just think Grissom has a bit of shiny-new-toy-syndrome for many. Can only speak for myself but I wanted Grissom prior to him being traded for Sale. I like 22 year old kids with a .320 lifetime minor league batting average who are coming off a .330 AAA season and held his own ar a brief trial in the majors. Hes a lousy SS. Don't care about that. He just has to be adequate at 2b and I think eventually he'll be better than that. I expect he will eventually play and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets off to a slow start and struggles defensively. People will complain but eventually he'll hit his way out of it and won't look back. My opinion has nothing to do with shiny new toy syndrome.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2024 13:11:36 GMT -5
I suspect Rafaela will be with the Sox for good come Opening Day.
I'm not as worried about the extra year of control. The Sox could try to lock him up with a Bello deal or something to that effect.
I dont think Rafaela is going to necessarily be a star but his defense will be great and he'll hit a bit with some pop.
I think he'll be comparable to JBJ but with a higher batting average and a lot less walks and comparable HR pop.
I can see him coming out of the gates quickly hitting very well and then dealing with a league adjustment that will test his patience at the plate.
They might jerk him around a little, sticking him at 2b against lefties until Grissom comes back.
The OF will be Duran/Rafaela/O'Neill although injuries could open up a lot of time for Abreu.
Next year at some point Anthony will take RF with Rafaela in CF and theyll have to eventually choose between Duran and Abreu with one being traded or maybe even both if they decide to get a RH hitting outfielder. Theyll probably also be looking for RH hitting DH at some point if they can trade Yoshida down the road to help balance the lineup. Maybe Hickey or even Blaze winds up the DH? Maybe Bleis becomes the RH bat and 3rd outfielder and Duran or Abreu just gets them to the point where Bleis hopefully blossoms and forces the issue. Maybe the outfield does wind up Anthony/Rafaela/Bleis.
I think Teel will take over the catching by midseason 2025 with Wong backing him up.
The infield will probably be Casas, Grissom, Mayer, and Devers for the foreseeable future come mid 2025 or 2026, with Story expendable as he beats the end of his deal.
Maybe at some point Cespedes becomes the #1 prospect with Devers eventually being bumped to DH but that's a long ways away.
As far as pitching goes, no clue. Yeah, they'll probably get usage out of Fitts and Sandlin eventually and maybe Wiki G, but beyond Bello, I dont see one or two guys that I think theyll need that can project as a top of the rotation type starter. Obviously the biggest needs of the system. Makes me think at some point they'll have to bite the bullet and drop big bucks on a top notch pitcher or two, and perhaps a big RH hitting power bat for the middle of the order.
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Post by GyIantosca on Mar 16, 2024 15:18:48 GMT -5
I feel so much confident on the offense. The lineup and what we have . I see more positives in the pitching . The starting is the hardest thing to sort out. To me it’s too bad they had to,pull from the bullpen to help the starting rotation. I feel Whitlock , Houck are excellent bullpen pieces . We’ll see how things pan out. To me I am a lot happier about our kids. Invest in our talent . We are so much deeper in real talent .
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Mar 16, 2024 15:48:48 GMT -5
Almost all agree pitching is the whole. Why not take advantage at what is probably a depressed market and pen Montgomery in as your #3 starter for the next 4 seasons. Takes a tremendous amount of pressure off everyone. It sounds like the reason is he wants a longer deal that would probably be a drag on payroll when the others are ready. (But I also have no clue what that plan is if he's also very anti-Yankees, would love to sign him if he and Boras capitulate and agree to a deal that works for us.) Overall the pitching development has been a bit of an issue this century but the actual situation right now isn't bad at all IMO. I know many are skeptical Kutter can repeat it since he had no minor league pedigree but how many teams have 2 homegrown pre-arb starters as good as Bello and Crawford were last year, like 3? Once you add in Fitts and Sandlin and we approach the end of the period where the lost IFA year hurt us the minors pitching depth seems fine too - idk if any specific one will pop but we have enough interesting arms I'm hopeful 1-2 do and suddenly you may have 3-4 rotation spots pretty cheap which should give even the new FSG ammo to pay top of the market for an ace. Like others said earlier in the offseason the Red Sox problem isn't depth and we're flush with 2 WAR guys, we need those 4+ WAR guys you build around. Lot of eggs being put in the Roman/Mayer/Teel(/Cedanne? Abreu? Grissom?) basket to be those 4 WAR guys but idk if that's even necessary, even if they are "just" 2 WAR guys but that's your starting SS/C/CF/RF at $1m/y each they've got the $$$ to add an ace, or a monster bat, or both. I'm also curious what people's bar is for the next "great" Red Sox team? Postseason success seems so flukish and we've had such a boom/bust cycle the last 15 years. I think back to back 90 win seasons (or maybe 3 in a row?) would qualify for me even if we flame out in the 1st round of the playoffs. Which I guess makes 2016-2018 the ideal? 2021 was fun as heck but I'm not sure I'd call it a great team, or at least not a sustainable one? My bar for the " next great" team is a World Series participant. I hold the 75 and 86 teams in as high regard as I have the four WS winners. In this regard I view greatness as a single season accomplishment vs. success over a range of seasons at a lower level of accomplishment.
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Post by geostorm on Mar 20, 2024 18:46:41 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 20, 2024 22:33:42 GMT -5
The next great Red Sox team is the next one that wins at least 3 games in a WS.
Put me down for 2024. The rotation is young and goes 7-deep, the bullpen has anchors at the back and promising building blocks in the middle. Both are primed for a new-coaching-staff breakout. Raffy bounces back to his all-world self and Casas joins him for a two-fisted punch reminiscent of the glory days. Story will find his stroke and win the GG going away. The sound of the ball off Duran's bat will strike fear into every player wearing a glove, Masa will stay fresh as a full-time DH, and the overall defense will be much improved. Wong will reach is mysterious power more often in-game and Grissom will become a fan favorite in the second half. The Vazquez deal will draw comparisons to the Heathcliff Slocumb trade.
The 2021 team had more star power but I think this squad has a higher ceiling. At least five October wins higher.
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Post by keninten on Mar 20, 2024 23:29:27 GMT -5
The next great Red Sox team is the next one that wins at least 3 games in a WS. Put me down for 2024. The rotation is young and goes 7-deep, the bullpen has anchors at the back and promising building blocks in the middle. Both are primed for a new-coaching-staff breakout. Raffy bounces back to his all-world self and Casas joins him for a two-fisted punch reminiscent of the glory days. Story will find his stroke and win the GG going away. The sound of the ball off Duran's bat will strike fear into every player wearing a glove, Masa will stay fresh as a full-time DH, and the overall defense will be much improved. Wong will reach is mysterious power more often in-game and Grissom will become a fan favorite in the second half. The Vazquez deal will draw comparisons to the Heathcliff Slocumb trade. The 2021 team had more star power but I think this squad has a higher ceiling. At least five October wins higher. Put me down for 100 wins, 90 if things go south.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 8, 2024 14:46:44 GMT -5
Whether it is 2025, 26, 27 or hopefully not, 2028, what does this next great team look like ? How close are the Sox now to being considered a WS contender that can sustain itself with a couple strategic moves each season ? There is a lot of work to do. Lineup1B: Cassas 2B: SS: Mayer 3B: Devers OF: Rafaella OF: Anthony OF: C: Teel P: Bello There are hopefuls ( Yoshida, Grissom, Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, Bleis, Crawford, Houk, Whitlock) that could become legit parts of the core that is protected and built around, but at least in my mind are not sure things yet. The fact that 3 of the lineup guys have not played a full season at AA yet adds an element of risk. Greatest concern to me is pitching. There is no real core pitching group unless a new pitching development strategy kicks in very soon and rises the level of promise for existing ML pitchers, along with Gonzales and Perales types. It will be interesting to follow how this builds out over the next few years and pay particular attention to moves that add to this group. a contract extention is enough evidence for me. Adding Rafaella to the outfield.
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