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The Next Great Red Sox Team?
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 18, 2024 19:21:47 GMT -5
Whether it is 2025, 26, 27 or hopefully not, 2028, what does this next great team look like ? How close are the Sox now to being considered a WS contender that can sustain itself with a couple strategic moves each season ? There is a lot of work to do.
Lineup
1B: Cassas 2B: SS: Mayer 3B: Devers OF: Rafaella OF: Anthony OF: C: Teel
P: Bello
There are hopefuls ( Yoshida, Grissom, Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, Bleis, Crawford, Houk, Whitlock) that could become legit parts of the core that is protected and built around, but at least in my mind are not sure things yet. The fact that 3 of the lineup guys have not played a full season at AA yet adds an element of risk.
Greatest concern to me is pitching. There is no real core pitching group unless a new pitching development strategy kicks in very soon and rises the level of promise for existing ML pitchers, along with Gonzales and Perales types.
It will be interesting to follow how this builds out over the next few years and pay particular attention to moves that add to this group.
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Post by keninten on Jan 18, 2024 19:56:42 GMT -5
Cespedes is a hopeful to me. Don`t know if you want to go that far down the line but he`s who I`ve been keeping my eyes on.
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2024 20:12:56 GMT -5
I have an easier time penciling in Grissom than Anthony, Mayer, or Teel. They may have higher upside, but he’s at least flashed ML bat. They gave a lot of road to go.
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Post by cmax on Jan 18, 2024 20:13:44 GMT -5
Hmm, good questions. Riffing a bit further:
1B: Casas 2B: Grissom / Yorke / Hamilton (best of) SS: Mayer / Story? 3B: Devers OF: Duran OF: Anthony OF: Rafaela / Abreu / Bleis C: Teel / Wong DH: Yoshida
P Bello, Crawford, Perales, Gonzalez / Houck, Fitts / Whitlock
They would have lots of money to spend on top of this if many of these prospects hit in 2025-2026. Does feel the pitching will need to level up somehow.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 18, 2024 20:28:21 GMT -5
I have an easier time penciling in Grissom than Anthony, Mayer, or Teel. They may have higher upside, but he’s at least flashed ML bat. They gave a lot of road to go. I almost put Grissom in at 2b but I would like to see a season of performance that leads to conclusion that yeah he's the guy. I love the trade as a perfect example if how to add to the core without giving up part of it.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 18, 2024 20:33:51 GMT -5
1B: Casas 2B: Grissom SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Yoshida CF: Duran RF: Abreu/O'Neill C: Wong DH: tbd
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2024 20:45:11 GMT -5
The next great Red Sox team is the one that actually has good pitching, whenever that is.
The near future lineup is kind of easy to project:
DH: Devers C: Teel 1B: Casas 2B: Grissom SS: Mayer 3B: Story LF: Yoshida CF: Rafaela RF: Anthony
The Sox have Story and Yoshida wrapped up thru 2027. Unless they dump one or the other the above scenario is the most likely scenario of 2025 - 2027.
Don't know if Story's arm will work for 3b. I would think if it's repaired it can be. It would allow for Devers to DH although that forces Yoshida into LF.
Then maybe Bleis is ready by then to replace Yoshida and Cespedes perhaps replaces Story as we're now talking 2028.
So the lineup could be a good lineup, but.....what does the pitching staff look like?
No idea. So until the pitching is as promising as the lineup, they truly can't have the next truly great Red Sox team.
At this point I could pencil in Bello if he stays healthy and that's about it. Don't know if Crawford becomes a mainstay who can consistently throw 150 plus innings per year. And beyond that who knows? Maybe Fitts develops or maybe he's just a pen guy. Same thing with Gonzalez or Perales, assuming they're even major leaguers. At some point the Sox are going to have to bite the bullen and sign free agent pitching because it's hard to see a lot of guys pushing from the minors up toward the majors very quickly. We'll see the impact of the new philosophy, etc, but I'm not expecting miracles or instant turnarounds.
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Post by orion09 on Jan 18, 2024 21:24:23 GMT -5
The next great Red Sox team is the one that actually has good pitching, whenever that is. The near future lineup is kind of easy to project: DH: Devers C: Teel 1B: Casas 2B: Grissom SS: Mayer 3B: Story LF: Yoshida CF: Rafaela RF: Anthony The Sox have Story and Yoshida wrapped up thru 2027. Unless they dump one or the other the above scenario is the most likely scenario of 2025 - 2027. Don't know if Story's arm will work for 3b. I would think if it's repaired it can be. It would allow for Devers to DH although that forces Yoshida into LF. Then maybe Bleis is ready by then to replace Yoshida and Cespedes perhaps replaces Story as we're now talking 2028. So the lineup could be a good lineup, but.....what does the pitching staff look like?
No idea. So until the pitching is as promising as the lineup, they truly can't have the next truly great Red Sox team.At this point I could pencil in Bello if he stays healthy and that's about it. Don't know if Crawford becomes a mainstay who can consistently throw 150 plus innings per year. And beyond that who knows? Maybe Fitts develops or maybe he's just a pen guy. Same thing with Gonzalez or Perales, assuming they're even major leaguers. At some point the Sox are going to have to bite the bullen and sign free agent pitching because it's hard to see a lot of guys pushing from the minors up toward the majors very quickly. We'll see the impact of the new philosophy, etc, but I'm not expecting miracles or instant turnarounds. I would expect to see more moves for guys like Winckowski and Fitts - guys on the bubble who the front office/development guys think they can find something in. There’s a reasonable path here to a rotation that looks like Bello, Crawford, 1-2 developmental guys, 1 prospect that pops, 1 premium free agent, and 1 mid-tier free agent.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2024 21:38:21 GMT -5
The next great Red Sox team is the one that actually has good pitching, whenever that is. The near future lineup is kind of easy to project: DH: Devers C: Teel 1B: Casas 2B: Grissom SS: Mayer 3B: Story LF: Yoshida CF: Rafaela RF: Anthony The Sox have Story and Yoshida wrapped up thru 2027. Unless they dump one or the other the above scenario is the most likely scenario of 2025 - 2027. Don't know if Story's arm will work for 3b. I would think if it's repaired it can be. It would allow for Devers to DH although that forces Yoshida into LF. Then maybe Bleis is ready by then to replace Yoshida and Cespedes perhaps replaces Story as we're now talking 2028. So the lineup could be a good lineup, but.....what does the pitching staff look like?
No idea. So until the pitching is as promising as the lineup, they truly can't have the next truly great Red Sox team.At this point I could pencil in Bello if he stays healthy and that's about it. Don't know if Crawford becomes a mainstay who can consistently throw 150 plus innings per year. And beyond that who knows? Maybe Fitts develops or maybe he's just a pen guy. Same thing with Gonzalez or Perales, assuming they're even major leaguers. At some point the Sox are going to have to bite the bullen and sign free agent pitching because it's hard to see a lot of guys pushing from the minors up toward the majors very quickly. We'll see the impact of the new philosophy, etc, but I'm not expecting miracles or instant turnarounds. I would expect to see more moves for guys like Winckowski and Fitts - guys on the bubble who the front office/development guys think they can find something in. There’s a reasonable path here to a rotation that looks like Bello, Crawford, 1-2 developmental guys, 1 prospect that pops, 1 premium free agent, and 1 mid-tier free agent. What you're saying is very plausible but the sustainability piece is the toughest thing. None of the 2004 starters were home grown, as I'm not counting Schilling who was drafted and developed in the Sox farm system about 18 years earlier. The 2007 team had Lester as the 5th starter who contributed. They had some brief help fron Clay Buchholz and Kason Gabbard. The 2013 team actually had 3 home grown starters in Lester, Buchholz, and Felix Doubront. And the 2018 rotation was pretty much all trades and free agency although Brian Johnson had since spot starts. They really haven't had that young influx of arms coming up around the same time giving them 5 or 6 years together of growing and blossoming. Hard to see that scenario occurring within the next 5 years as it takes time to draft and develop pitching so I think they have to do what you suggested.
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Post by soxaddict on Jan 18, 2024 21:41:54 GMT -5
I have an easier time penciling in Grissom than Anthony, Mayer, or Teel. They may have higher upside, but he’s at least flashed ML bat. They gave a lot of road to go. I agree. Maybe I'm more optimistic than most, but I feel like he should be in the same category as those three.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jan 18, 2024 21:58:07 GMT -5
C - Teel/Wong (L/R) 1B - Casas (L) 2B - Story/Grissom (R/R) SS - Mayer (L) 3B - Devers (L) LF - Duran (L) CF - Rafaela (R) RF - Anthony (L) DH - Yoshida (L)
-Grissom/Story/Rafaela are key to balancing all of the LHH. -An OF of Duran/Rafaela/Anthony would be great defensively.
This core is controllable and cost-efficient. If Wilyer is a real contributor, it would make Duran/Yoshida more expendable. But the offensive core seems to be in a good place in terms of both control and cost-efficiency.
On the pitching side, I think the bullpen is in a pretty good place. There is solid AAA depth and plenty of control amongst the existing staff. Hopefully enough of the '24 bullpen (Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Campbell) show the upside to replace Jansen/Martin, which would free up an additional ~$25MM to be used elsewhere. If not, there is enough depth to spend on the back-end guys.
The rotation is the clear area of need, both now and in the future. Giolito and Pivetta could both be gone by next year, with no prospects knocking down the door for rotation spots.
Luckily, the lineup and bullpen both look to have enough depth, upside, and cost-efficient controllability to allow them to invest significantly in the rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2024 6:02:42 GMT -5
All the above is basically my thoughts but, If I had to put a wager on the better shortstop both offensively and defensively for the duration of Story's contract, I'd bet Story on both sides. Noce problem to have because I like Mayer a lot.
ADD: Don't rule out Winc and Blaze.
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Post by boylstonbarhopper on Jan 19, 2024 10:30:57 GMT -5
You absolutely cannot pencil in Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as regulars on a future World Series team. That is insane, and not remotely in line with the entire history of baseball prospects.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 19, 2024 11:22:39 GMT -5
You absolutely cannot pencil in Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as regulars on a future World Series team. That is insane, and not remotely in line with the entire history of baseball prospects. Sure, none have proved enough to be absolutes and are therefore risks. But, if those three are not the core players the team is waiting to spend money to add to, who is ? Devers and Cassas are here now. They are almost universally considered untouchable, which also brings risk. I think it is reasonable to project these guys at this point.
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Post by manfred on Jan 19, 2024 11:46:25 GMT -5
You absolutely cannot pencil in Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as regulars on a future World Series team. That is insane, and not remotely in line with the entire history of baseball prospects. Sure, none have proved enough to be absolutes and are therefore risks. But, if those three are not the core players the team is waiting to spend money to add to, who is ? Devers and Cassas are here now. They are almost universally considered untouchable, which also brings risk. I think it is reasonable to project these guys at this point. This is fair, but it is more like “the next chance at a great team.” And since we are talking guys barely out of their teens, we are looking years in the future. It is sort of scary…. Best case scenario is ~3 years from now. If these guys don’t reach their potential, it could be much more. Looked at differently, your point that there is Devers and Casas just shows what talent drain we’ve seen the last 5 years.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 99
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Post by hank on Jan 19, 2024 11:52:33 GMT -5
I have an easier time penciling in Grissom than Anthony, Mayer, or Teel. They may have higher upside, but he’s at least flashed ML bat. They gave a lot of road to go. I almost put Grissom in at 2b but I would like to see a season of performance that leads to conclusion that yeah he's the guy. I love the trade as a perfect example if how to add to the core without giving up part of it. Grissom could easily be another of these 4A 2B prospects that are butchers in the field as not
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Post by ephus on Jan 20, 2024 11:23:53 GMT -5
You absolutely cannot pencil in Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as regulars on a future World Series team. That is insane, and not remotely in line with the entire history of baseball prospects. Disagree. On this very board (well it was before the move to proboards, but you get it) people penciled in an outfield of Mookie, JBJ and Benny Bats and my god it was glorious. People penciled in Xander and Devers. Sure we also penciled in Lars, Rubby De La Rosa and Michael Bowden; shoot by my own projections Engle Belté should have already locked in his third MVP; but to unequivocally say it NEVER happens just isn’t true.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 20, 2024 11:52:00 GMT -5
You absolutely cannot pencil in Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as regulars on a future World Series team. That is insane, and not remotely in line with the entire history of baseball prospects. That's why it's called pencil in and not inked in.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 14, 2024 1:25:01 GMT -5
MLB carried a short piece on Casas' HR against Rodon today, encouraged by the fact that it was against a lefthander given that he'd hit "just .215/.361/.456" against them in 2023. Forget about the fact that the OBP was just about on par with what he did against righthanders.
I did a simple calculation. What if he'd had 3 more singles fall in somewhere in those 97 PAs? The batting line would have been .253/.392/.494 so that's all it would have taken to get him out of "just" territory. In other words in such a small sample it's not much more than noise.
MLB might be wise to leave the jargon behind and talk statistical sense to people. If they want knowledgeable fans they could help the process along instead of keeping them in the dark with the old talk.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 14, 2024 2:57:20 GMT -5
The bulk of Casas left on left improvement last year vs prior years was in the slugging department. A .456 L on L is nothing to sneeze at but if he continues that trajectory, he'd be scary.
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Post by manfred on Mar 14, 2024 5:45:50 GMT -5
MLB carried a short piece on Casas' HR against Rodon today, encouraged by the fact that it was against a lefthander given that he'd hit "just .215/.361/.456" against them in 2023. Forget about the fact that the OBP was just about on par with what he did against righthanders. I did a simple calculation. What if he'd had 3 more singles fall in somewhere in those 97 PAs? The batting line would have been .253/.392/.494 so that's all it would have taken to get him out of "just" territory. In other words in such a small sample it's not much more than noise. MLB might be wise to leave the jargon behind and talk statistical sense to people. If they want knowledgeable fans they could help the process along instead of keeping them in the dark with the old talk. Isn’t a small sample because he was being protected a bit? That would suggest the lefties he faced tended not to be elite lefties. I say this only to suggest you could as easily ask what happens if you add 3 or more ABs against top lefties… as opposed to the 3 dink singles.
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Post by 0ap0 on Mar 14, 2024 8:38:23 GMT -5
The bulk of Casas left on left improvement last year vs prior years was in the slugging department. A .456 L on L is nothing to sneeze at but if he continues that trajectory, he'd be scary. Right. Against left-handed pitching his slugging more than doubled from .211 in 2022 to .456 in 2023. This trajectory would project to around 1.000 this year, 4.000 by the time he's eligible for arbitration, and he'll be circling the base paths multiple times per at bat before he's a free agent.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Mar 14, 2024 9:10:07 GMT -5
You absolutely cannot pencil in Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as regulars on a future World Series team. That is insane, and not remotely in line with the entire history of baseball prospects. Bit late to this and others have already addressed it. I wanted to add that this is not an all or nothing thought exercise. It's not a choice between MBTA-R (our top-5) all making the majors as impact players or all of them failing. If just 3 of those 5 guys stick as average to above-average regulars, it adds a lot to the core already under control through 2028: Devers, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Winckowski. Plus Story (opt out), and less projectable-production guys like Grissom, Duran, Abreu, Valdez, Wong. If just one of those 5 guys turns into a franchise or even quasi-franchise player, we're doing well. Because by definition, adding to what we already have, it would give us a solid lineup-core and very good defense up the middle.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 14, 2024 10:12:11 GMT -5
The bulk of Casas left on left improvement last year vs prior years was in the slugging department. A .456 L on L is nothing to sneeze at but if he continues that trajectory, he'd be scary. That homer was VERY impressive but I was also impressed with how he never "bailed". I firmly believe he will eventually be more than just fine hitting most lefties. I could say the same about Duran the game before. He torched two line-outs against a lefty. Other than his hair color reminding me of one of the Marx brothers, he has looked good.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 14, 2024 11:28:18 GMT -5
MLB carried a short piece on Casas' HR against Rodon today, encouraged by the fact that it was against a lefthander given that he'd hit "just .215/.361/.456" against them in 2023. Forget about the fact that the OBP was just about on par with what he did against righthanders. I did a simple calculation. What if he'd had 3 more singles fall in somewhere in those 97 PAs? The batting line would have been .253/.392/.494 so that's all it would have taken to get him out of "just" territory. In other words in such a small sample it's not much more than noise. MLB might be wise to leave the jargon behind and talk statistical sense to people. If they want knowledgeable fans they could help the process along instead of keeping them in the dark with the old talk. Isn’t a small sample because he was being protected a bit? That would suggest the lefties he faced tended not to be elite lefties. I say this only to suggest you could as easily ask what happens if you add 3 or more ABs against top lefties… as opposed to the 3 dink singles. You're making my argument for me. If adding or subtracting just a few results significantly changes the line either way that's a measure of how meaningful - or not - the sample is. What I'm more interested in is a realistic assessment of what that sample-size means in those narratives. Why not educate readers? As for whether he was protected, how do we know what he would have done "un-protected". That's the same sort of conundrum.
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